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I've revised downward to 0.26% my forecast for interest rates on the Ten-Year Note.  A 0.30% target given here earlier was based on an erroneously drawn pattern discovered by a subscriber. But could the so-far low at 0.39% have been the bottom, especially considering the power of the subsequent rally to 0.98%? It's possible, but I doubt it. The pattern itself is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that the Hidden Pivot target will not merely be closely approached, but actually touched. This revised forecast will have no bearing on my forecast for a drop to 0.73% on the 30-Year Treasury Bond. It  traded down to a record 0.84% last week but has since rebounded as high as 1.63%. The T-Bond sellers who drove rates back up to that height were useful idiots who were simply fulfilling the inviolable law that no trend ever goes sup or down in a straight line without correcting. ______ UPDATE (Mar 18, 9:15 p.m.): This is quite a rally we are witnessing -- probably the steepest climb ever recorded for yields on the Ten-Year Note. So, was the dip to 0.39% the finale for the long-term cycle? I doubt it, but I am not going to get in the way of this rally.

A spectacular two-day sell-off has negated the 1731 rally target we were using. Although this has not significantly altered the still-bullish look of the long-term charts, it has put gold in a deep hole that could be difficult to climb out of.  There is a 40% chance nevertheless that the futures have seen their lows for the time being, since Friday's bottom occurred at a 'double' Hidden Pivot support. The chart shows one of them, a secondary pivot at 1508.40; but another, unseen, is the D target of a slightly different pattern with a higher 'B-C' segment. If the so-far timid bounce continues and turns into a bona fide rally, it would need to surpass the 1610.00 peak recorded Thursday on the way down to become significant. ______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 8:45 a.m. EDT): Gold is getting whacked under heavy liquidation by investors whose idea of a safe haven, evidently, is any asset that can be hocked up the wazoo. This chart says the April contract, currently at 1461, will fall to at least 1407 groping for traction. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 8:32 p.m.): Bullion and mining shares have been so perverse lately that we should allow for the possibility of a powerful rally for no good reason. If it can surpass an 'external' peak at 1574.8 made Sunday on the way down, I'd infer that bulls are back in charge and capable of challenging last week's 1700.70 high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 17. 8:41 p.m.): I'm raising the bar to 1598.0 before I believe this rally might go somewhere. That's a tick above an 'external' peak recorded March 13 on the hourly chart, one peak above the one noted earlier at 1574.80. Failing that, the 1407 target given above will be back in play.

Financial advisors have been telling clients for years that they should just hang in there when the inevitable selloff came. It's a safe bet that none of these guys ever uttered the words "bear market" to describe the supposedly healthy correction that eventually would arrive, since that would have spooked investors. Now the correction is upon us, if that's all it is, but it is already unlike any before it: steeper, swifter and fraught with growing uncertainties about the economic effects of the pandemic. The S&Ps have plummeted nearly 30 percent in just three weeks, and there are no guarantees that an even worse stampede is not looming. The wisdom and steadfastness of advisors who are presently counseling clients to sit tight is certain to be tested in the weeks and months ahead, even if the global contagion grows no worse.  The plunge has already been sufficiently punitive to cast doubt on any rallies that are coming. Many if not most investors will have resolved to sell into strength in hopes of recouping perhaps two-thirds of what they have lost. It is predictable that the upthrusts will never quite reach a satisfactory level and that investors, increasingly frustrated, will settle for less and less on the upslope of each new swoon.  When the bear market finally bottoms 2-3 years from now, most nest eggs will have been reduced to a pittance. For their part, advisors will finally be gung-ho to sell everything. That's how bear markets work. Always. If you are praying this isn't one, take no comfort in the fact that you are in the majority.

Even the optimists are starting to understand that rallies are to be disbelieved and sold, not cheered. It's one thing for the stock market to shrug off tariff wars, geopolitical tensions and impeachment hearings. But the pandemic poses a threat potentially even more grave, and there are simply too many uncertainties at the moment about how it will play out for stocks to stage a sustained rally.  Will the U.S. escape a major outbreak, or will we instead live under economically crippling rules of quarantine like Italy? Still worse would be to have protocols similar to China's imposed across the length and breadth of North America. It appears that China's stringent containment measures are working and that the spread of coronavirus there is finally slowing down. If America is forced to take similar steps, we could be in for a long hot summer: no dining out, no concerts or ballgames, maybe even no backyard barbecues with neighbors. All of that seems a stretch at the moment, but no one can rule it out, least of all investors who are understandably eager for America to get back to business as usual.

With the Dow Industrials up a whopping 1167 points on Tuesday, we need to remind ourselves that the rally was a fraud, driven mainly by bears scrambling to meet margin calls.  Indeed, the binge was impelled every inch of the way by short-covering. The saps who bought into it are certain to regret it -- soon, and in a big way. Mr. Market always makes sure of that. His purpose is to make it extremely difficult for bears to rack up a big score even though the collapse they've patiently awaited for years is finally happening. The flip side of Mr. Market's cruel plan is to trick bulls into staying fully invested the whole way down. What fools! But we would be foolish ourselves to underestimate the power of short-covering rallies, especially if stocks have actually entered a major bear market. For it is our doubts and skepticism that will fuel the rallies, along with a persistent failure to imagine how far they can go.  How do we compensate for this in order to avoid getting trampled in the next buying stampede? For starters, by accepting that the surge will not end until those of us who have experienced enough bear markets to know how very devious the countertrend moves can be are convinced that "this one is for real."  When even hardened skeptics have thrown in the towel, that's when the market will be ready to turn south again with a vengeance. No Great Trick Since few of us doubters will have the guts to go against the churning in our stomachs at the crucial inflection point, I'm going to suggest an easier way: follow Apple shares. Do this with discipline and diligence and you cannot go wrong or be fooled. AAPL is the best proxy we have for

Just because the E-Mini S&Ps were down by a record-breaking 225 points today doesn't mean the selling is over. Expect the futures to fall  further 140.75 points, at least, before they can attempt to bottom. That would leave them at 2592.75, a Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. The pattern lacks a distinctive point 'A' high, but the weak one I've chosen should be good enough for government work. No matter which top is used, it wouldn't change the fact that sellers obliterated a midpoint pivot at or near 2864.88, telegraphing yet more weakness to come.  A slight adjustment in 'A' yields an alternative target at 2603.40, so be ready for a turn from there as well. _______ UPDATE (Mar 11. 10:08 p.m.): I still expect the futures to reverse course at or very near one of the two targets flagged above. If they eventually relapse below these Hidden Pivot supports, you should infer that more slippage to 2447.75 is likely. At that point the S&P futures will have corrected 28% from the all-time high at 3995 achieved just three weeks ago. That would not necessarily mean the bear market is over. More likely would be the start of a Stage 2 that could see stocks grind bulls and bears alike to dust over the next year or so. ______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 9:10 p.m.): It is bearish that so clear and promising a Hidden Pivot support as the one at 2447.75 proffered above has given way so quickly. Since most trading algorithms have the IQ of a grapefruit seed, we should expect the machines to test the key low at 2316 recorded in late December. Look for a rally from somewhere very near there, but I cannot tell you how best to trade it until such time as

I appeared to occupy a unique place on the lunatic fringe when, many years ago, I started writing about the prospect of a short squeeze on the dollar. When I bounced this idea off a half-dozen finance professors, each had the same response: "Huh?"  Their incredulity notwithstanding, it has always seemed a given to me that it would take a catastrophic deflation to wipe out debts, both public and private, that long ago exceeded our ability to repay them. The main feature of a debt deflation is an increase in the real burden of debt. Ultimately, and unfortunately for all who are fully invested in the politically popular idea of a free lunch, every penny of every debt must be paid -- if not by the borrower, then by the lender.  We kid ourselves to think we will escape it via hyperinflation. Realize that the biggest piece of what Americans owe, putting aside incalculable future liabilities from Social Security and Medicare, is mortgage debt. It is not simply going to go away, and that is why  deflation, rather than hyperinflation, is far more likely to determine the financial endgame. This premise starts with the assumption that mortgage lenders will never accept a few hundred-thousand-dollar bills peeled from our hyperinflated wallets to settle up.  Instead, most mortgages will eventually have to be rewritten as lease agreements so that people can stay in their homes during the hard times that are coming.  This process is already well under way via a rental boom that has drastically altered the dynamic of the housing market. Private equity firms have not only been buying up whole neighborhoods at inflated prices in order to rent homes to those who cannot afford them, they have been building news homes to lease to the same tapped out crowd.

The April contract has taken a tortuous path higher since New Year's Eve, when it tripped a buy signal tied to the 1731.30 target shown. The target has never been in serious doubt, even when a hellish $135 swoon occurred a couple of weeks ago. In fact, that tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at p=1594.20 that may have been reassuring to those who've been in gold for the long haul.  Although 1731.30 is not quite a done deal because of the difficulty buyers had getting past p, it's probably an 85% shot to be achieved, probably within the next 6-12 days. We'll need to take stock if and when this happens, since there's likely to be a substantial correction from that number. ______ UPDATE (Mar 11, 9:44 p.m. EDT): It would be great if we could say gold has held its own, but shouldn't it be rallying as stocks collapse? Clearly, bullion is not on the list of investable assets that portfolio managers regard as safe havens. Which leaves mostly nervous Nellies to tend precious metals markets, and to dive for cover each time gold seems to be getting insufficient lift from pandemic fears. The bull market is still very much intact on the daily and intraday charts nonetheless, as is the 1731.30 target. My gut feeling is that it eventually will be reached, but that it could take longer than the 6-12 days I'd allotted. As a practical matter, a long position would have been exited at around 1695 using a 'dynamic' trailing stop such as I've detailed here before. Regardless, we should prepare for a long slog -- and perhaps be careful what we wish for, since a heightened crisis capable of lighting a fire under gold evidently would need to be more serious than the crisis we've

AAPL has traced out a pretty simple pattern that implies minimum slippage from here to at least p=269.86. Although the pattern is obvious enough to attract the attention of the hoi-polloi we always hope to be trading against, the midpoint pivot is probably sufficiently obscure to offer a decent place to attempt bottom-fishing.  The stock will be short-able in the meantime intraday, but I'll leave the details to the Trading Room, assuming there is sufficient interest. The gaps between HP levels are so big that we can hope to trade the stock, by turns, from either side of the market. Nudge me if you're keen to take a plunge in options when choice opportunities arise. ______ UPDATE (March 9, 8:54 p.m. EDT): Today's plunge shredded the 269.86 midpoint Hidden Pivot, making further slippage to 235.72 a good bet. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 10, 9:04): Just an inch more and AAPL will trip a signal to get short 'mechanically' at the green line. I've spotlighted the stock's ability to tell us exactly what's on Mr. Market's diabolical mind, and so we shall see. I am not recommending the trade, which would require a stop-loss at  304.01, but we'll track it anyway in order to gt a firm handle on AAPL's behavior. The 235.72 target flagged above is still viable and will remain so unless the stop-loss on the short is hit. _______ UPDATE (Mar 11, 9:50 p.m.): The stock failed by an inch to trigger a mechanical short by touching 286.93 on the last rally. That will not affect the odds of more slippage to 235.72, however, even though the stock appeared to resist a wholesale collapse today. We can assume AAPL shares are being deftly distributed by DaBoyz, who would be well aware of the company's vulnerability in