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We're living in interesting times, especially investors. The stock market is in its steepest climb in years, reminiscent of dot-com mania; and yet, individual shareholders have been withdrawing their money at the fastest pace in decades. Do the little guys know something that portfolio managers don't?  Wall Street's geniuses have been raking in outlandish fees for targeting a handful of high-flying stocks with Other People's Money (OPM). The perpetual-motion machine works simply because, try as the little guys might to get off the speeding train, their cash remains tied up in the game anyway. For instance, if one makes payments to a mortgage lender or a life insurance company, the cash doesn't just sit idle; DaBoyz keep it working 24/7, whether in FAANG stocks, Bolivian reverse floaters, repos, junk paper -- you name it. Give the feather merchants a dollar and in just a few months' time they will multiply it tenfold. Just imagine the leverage they extracted from Trump's trillion-dollar stimulus -- the one that some evidently still believe was "tax reform." Brace for More Insanity The money multiplier was on steroids last week as stocks reversed a stumble on Tuesday and began ratcheting higher. The move turned explosive on Friday when we learned that the economy created more jobs than expected. The funny thing is, most major news outlets had actually predicted the number would come in significantly above official estimates. Can you believe that this con-game, which is as old as the stock market, actually worked, and that it worked so beautifully? We're all suckers, it would seem, since we are desperate to believe the con. And who cares whether most of the jobs were at the low end of the food chain? Distribution hubs in the Sunbelt were busing in workers like lettuce-pickers in order to

AAPL remains an excellent proxy for the bull market, so perhaps it’s a good time to look at its intraday charts, the better to judge whether December’s shaky start portends more trouble. My gut feeling is that the weakness will pass, if it hasn’t already, and that both the stock and the broad averages will soon be banging out new record highs. This scenario will become more likely if AAPL blows past the 266.11 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart to end the week. That would put it on track for a shot at D=269.55 next week, and, presumably, generate corresponding strength in the broad averages. A rendezvous with D could provide us with more information, but I expect sufficient resistance there to set up a potential ‘reverse-ABC’ short. Stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely guidance. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 1:49 p.m. EST): Short-covering at the opening sent AAPL into a lunatic spasm that not only demolished the 266.11 midpoint resistance, but continued higher, eventually reaching and then surpassing the 269.55 target. When it did, I put out a new target at 270.94 (“not rocket science”) in the Trading Room that appears to have stopped the rally cold.  AAPL has since fallen $1.04 (!) after peaking at 271.00, six cents above my target.  _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:10 p.m.): We still hold eight 280 calls with a cost basis of 0.16 that expire on Friday. Offer half of them to close for 0.62, good through Tuesday. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 11:14 p.m.):  The uptrend has been steady but not steep enough to revive our calls. We'll play the hand we've got rather than speculate on more expiring options.  Use 274.18 (60-min,  A=261.74 on 12/4)  for a target -- not quite enough to make 272.50 calls @ 1.00

AAPL remains an excellent proxy for the bull market, so perhaps it's a good time to look at its intraday charts, the better to judge whether December's shaky start portends more trouble. My gut feeling is that the weakness will pass, if it hasn't already, and that both the stock and the broad averages will soon be banging out new record highs. This scenario will become more likely if AAPL blows past the 266.11 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart to end the week. That would put it on track for a shot at D=269.55 next week, and, presumably, generate corresponding strength in the broad averages. A rendezvous with D could provide us with more information, but I expect sufficient resistance there to set up a potential 'reverse-ABC' short. Stay tuned to the Trading Room for timely guidance. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6, 1:49 p.m. EST): Short-covering at the opening sent AAPL into a lunatic spasm that not only demolished the 266.11 midpoint resistance, but continued higher, eventually reaching and then surpassing the 269.55 target. When it did, I put out a new target at 270.94 ("not rocket science") in the Trading Room that appears to have stopped the rally cold.  AAPL has since fallen $1.04 (!) after peaking at 271.00, six cents above my target.

Stocks showed surprising strength Wednesday, all of it attributed by the usual dipsticks to supposedly encouraging news about -- you guessed it -- trade talks with China. Don't be fooled, for the rally would have happened anyway. It is just a bull market doing its inexplicable thing, irrespective of whatever Trump happens to be tweeting at a given moment. The tweets may drive stocks silly for a few minutes, or perhaps catalyze an uptrend or downtrend that was about to happen anyway, but they have little effect on the run-ups to new all-time highs that have been recurring with regular frequency lately.

Ya gotta love the way the stock market turns so docile most nights that it could almost be described as cuddly. Maybe in the way that snakes get cuddly if a warm-blooded mammal lies in a pit with a hundred of them.  Earlier in the day, the Dow Industrials were down about 450 points at their lows. It was a refreshing change for many of us -- the notion that in these all-too-interesting times there is still such a thing as buyer's remorse. Alas, bears turned gutless midway through the session as they so often do, and that was as much respite as we doom-and-gloomers were to enjoy. Even so, there was no particular vigor in the bounce, and so we might expect the selling to resume on Wednesday. The usual talking heads searched for reasons, but the selloff occurred simply because too many traders, your editor among them, were too bullish as December began. Seasonality will be with the optimists this month, to be sure, but a Santa rally is by no means guaranteed. If weak markets combine with even a small, perceived downtick in holiday sales, we'll see these factors feed off each other, generating a downward vortex. So if you'd like to see stocks higher at the end of the  month, I'd suggest doing your patriotic duty by shopping until you drop.

Santa Season didn't exactly get off to a flying start. More like a diving start -- and a mildly surprising one at that, since DaBoyz appeared to have hoisted shares effortlessly overnight. In retrospect, it was a pump-and-dump operation, although not a very ambitious one. The dumping began at 4 a.m. in the dead of night, presumably because sellers doubted there would be any buyers left if they waited till the opening.  They were right to have been nervous, since shares dove on the first bar of the regular session. The remainder of the day was spent screwing the pooch, with the broad averages scuddling sideways from 10 a.m. till the close.  The tracks they left suggest that we may as well flip a coin to determine where they might be headed next.

Monday's dive was a sample of what we should expect when the still hibernating bear finally emerges.  Mr Market not only delivered a swift kick in the balls, he did it while we were sleeping. I'd sent out a 3160.25 rally target last week and stuck to it even after a rally died just five points shy of it. Lo, short-covering bears got second wind Monday morning, pushing this gas-bag to a 3158.00 top that would have been easily shortable using an rABC set-up. Trouble is, the high occurred at 4 a.m. when most of us were sleeping. We shouldn't hope for great opportunities to come at convenient hours, because that's not how the game works. But we will need to be aggressive if we are going to seize whatever crumbs come our way.  For now, I have no new targets to offer, nor even a confident sense of where the futures might be headed next. _______ UPDATE Dec 3, 7:55 a.m. EST): The opening is nearly 90 minutes away, but the futures are not getting much bounce off the gnarly Hidden Pivot pattern  shown here, with a 'D' target at 3098.75.  This is not a healthy sign. DaScumballs will valiantly keep trying to exhaust sellers, groping for a bottom in order to short squeeze the opening. We shouldn't bet against their success at rigging the game in this way, but it behooves us to treat whatever rally is coming with care and skepticism.

New Year's Eve will be here in a blink, and we should expect seasonality to continue to favor bulls in the meantime. Not they need any help.  Although the broad averages have exceeded every significant technical impediment we knew of in recent weeks, there is little evidence of fatigue. Late Sunday evening, index futures were chomping on the bit, seemingly eager to extend last week's moderate gains. By now, the idiotic notion that the bull market has drawn its strength from vague 'hopes' of a trade deal should have been dispelled, since whatever deal is coming is certain to be far less consequential in dollar terms than the rally that has already occurred.  The massive upwelling since January has occurred simply because stocks are in a bull market, not because of anything having to do with world trade, politics or the economy. Rather than speculate about whether the bull trend is likely to continue in 2020, let's wait until February 2, when we can be almost certain about this. That's when the Superbowl will be played, and the outcome has an 80% chance of predicting the stock market's year. If an AFC team wins, a bear or down market is likely to follow. The New England Patriots, an AFC team, have the best record in football so far this year (10-1), but it's too early to despair.

The 3160.25 rally target we've been using to keep us properly bullish remains to be achieved. Even though Wednesday's push to 3155.00 came close, it wasn't as close as we should expect, given the way buyers took out the 3125.50 midpoint resistance earlier in the week. All that aside, the futures are trading above a major trendline after impaling it last week, presumably adding to the euphoria, so extra caution is warranted.  That means monitoring price action at 3138.00 for now, a minor Hidden Pivot support that should be expected to produce a tradeable bounce (15-minute, a=1555.00 at  6:15 pm. EST on 11/27).  A 3138.25 bid for a single contract, stop 3136.25, is suggested. You'll be on your own if the order fills. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 11:31 p.m.): Cancel the bid, since the futures have rocketed skyward after having gone no lower than 3139.50. _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 10:14 a.m.): And now stocks are plummeting. It would appear that 'trade hopes' have faded just a smidgen this morning.