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As forecast, the Dollar Index has fallen into the 101.30-104.64 range, presumably bound for the 102.34 Hidden Pivot target shown. If so, this would portend a further easing of pressure on bullion over the next 4-7 days, or however long it takes to complete the pattern. A sharp rally in the meantime to the green line (x=106.58) should be viewed as an excellent opportunity to get short 'mechanically', given the steep pitch of the A-B impulse leg.

Last week's commentary went full contrarian with the seemingly nutty idea that 2023 could be a dull year for investors despite the looming possibility of a global economic collapse. Inflation, deep recession, war, disease and political unrest are just a few of the factors that could bring a badly limping financial system down. But suppose the global picture were to brighten significantly? Consider the possibilities: a senile U.S. president is forced to step down; Putin negotiates an end to a war in Ukraine that has become unwinnable; the nascent rebellion in China is joined by sympathetic soldiers; anti-communism rises up around the world, even in the U.S.; free speech returns on a global swell of popularity; and the content of Hunter Biden's laptop gets fully exposed, rousing Americans to root out corruption at the FBI, State and Justice departments. Rebellion against the globalists and communists is stirring everywhere. All hell could break loose, but a positive outcome is hardly inconceivable. Farmers in Canada, Netherlands and elsewhere could prevail over climate-change zealots who would prefer that everyone eat tofu. Brazilians could stymie the fraudulently elected Lula da Silva from opening Latin America's back door to his Chinese comrades; Italy's new premier, Giorgia Meloni, could bring down the EU by demonstrating that supposedly 'far-right' leaders are actually just mainstream champions of a common-sense path back to economic health. There are also mounting protests against Iran's Islamist dictatorship that could strengthen and spread to the Muslim world. They surfaced last week when Iranian soccer players declined to sing the national anthem at their opening World Cup game against England. The Laptop That Keeps Giving Regarding the world's most infamous laptop, no longer can its incriminating contents be suppressed online or by the partisan hacks who run the New York Times, Washington Post, L.A.

Early in October, it lifted my spirits to be able to bloviate about how a too-widely-anticipated October crash seemed as likely as a Martian invasion. One lunar calendar-based prediction in particular had October 21 as the crash date, although the forecast went squishy at sundown that day when dark clouds failed to materialize over Wall Street. Even so, the trading world remained atwitter about the guru and his earth-shaking prediction until after the election. Now, five weeks later, who even remembers his name? At the time, I made the boldest prediction that a guru can make -- i.e., that nothing even remotely interesting would happen for the foreseeable future. This was going way out on a limb, since we gurus are always expected to predict that 'something' will happen, even if we sometimes wuss out with a 'sooner or later' qualifier. But more months of nothing? Zilch? Nada? When was the last time such a boring forecast was celebrated for its prescience? And which guru made the call? What makes this one so daring, however, is that even the village idiot knows that the global economy is poised to collapse at any time -- perhaps even before you have read this commentary. Bloomberg's A-Team  Instead, we have the usual eggheads and Bloomberg regulars debating whether the U.S. is even in a recession. Yes, the pundits nearly always embarrass themselves.  All of us can see that tens of millions of middle-class Americans are making the kind of economic tradeoffs that are usually associated with hard times. But perhaps the eggheads have a point, not necessarily on the top of their heads. Maybe things are not so bad after all, and the economy will continue to limp along until the next outbreak of buy-side psychosis strikes the proletarian mind. To assess the

The off-kilter pattern shown, with a weak A-B segment that obscures the chart's 'mechanical' appeal, yields a picture that could provide two trading opportunities as the new week begins : 1) a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4016.75), stop 4001.75; or, 2) a short at D=4061.00 with a stop-loss as tight as 1.50 points. The first looks more appealing but would require a 'camouflage' set-up on a chart of lesser degree to shrink the implied entry risk of $750 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 9:46 p.m.): So much for bottom-fishing at 4016.75, a trade done in by a Sunday night air pocket that turned out to be honest-to-goodness selling. Going forward,  use this corrective 'reverse' pattern, to gauge trend strength and trade, since it has profitability going for it, even if achieved under duress.  A decisive breach of the red line (p=3938.75) would telegraph more downside top2=3882.94, or even D=3827.00, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with the tightest stop-loss you can craft. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 6:52 p.m.): Stocks screamed higher, not because of bullish buying, but because no seller would dare get in the way when the Fed is talking its book. That's how bear rallies work, instantly adding hundreds of billions of 'dollars' to the financial economy without requiring any effort or even bulls to do the lifting. This short-covering binge is bound for at least 4214.00 -- a near-certainty given the way it vaporized the 4064 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance.

The December contract exceeded my minimum expectation last week at 21.50, so I've selected a more ambitious rally pattern with a 22.40 target to keep us a step ahead of the herd if Silver continues to rise as expected. A pullback to the green line (x=21.05) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, but the balky A-B leg argues against trying to get long with a conventional bid and a 20.59 stop-loss. Camouflage may be the ticket, so stay tuned to that chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 10:03 p.m.): The futures took a $1200 bounce from within a half-cent of the green line, enabling at least one subscriber to report a quick profit in the chat room.  Silver's subsequent relapse has muddied the immediate picture and left me with nothing exciting to recommend for today. My 'voodoo number' for a possible turn would be 20.98 -- worth risking no more than 2-3 cents on a stop. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 7:12 p.m.): A bullish pattern going back to early November would be superseded by a larger one if this rally decisively exceeds 22.73, basis the March contract, or closes above it for two consecutive days. The new target, a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, would be at 24.325, shown in this chart. 

The reverse pattern shown is the most ambitious I've used for this vehicle in a long while, with a D target at 41.17 that lies 17% above. It seems well warranted, however, given the way the C-D leg has closed above p=33.49 for a third consecutive week after the initial push past it.  Another plus is that the A-B impulse leg has yet to correct, and retracements on the daily chart have been short-lived. Actually, a more punitive pullback may be needed to set up the next big thrust, so don't be surprised to see a swoon take out last week's low at 32.77. That would be a buying opportunity, for sure.

Although I expect Silver to continue moving higher, I've displayed a mildly bearish reverse-pattern (see inset) because it promises to work well for augmenting long positions with risk under tight control. On Thursday, for instance, sellers corrected the December contract down to the red line (p=20.73), almost triggering an  enticing 'mechanical' buying opportunity. (It didn't trigger, however, because the downswing missed touching p=20.730 by a hair). Let's watch to see how the futures interact with this pattern, which could prove useful in any event. A decisive downside penetration of p early in the week could be warning of more slippage to p2=19.905, or even d=19.08. _______ UPDATE (Nov 21, 9:50 p.m.): Bottoming action at p was tricky, but there were several ways to have gotten aboard without much pain. As much as 13 cents was risked initially, but the bounce so far has delivered a profit of as much as 42 cents ($2100) per contract. Minimum price objective: 21.50. Please let me know if you hold a position based on my recommendation do I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.

The corrective pattern shown was proffered by a keen-eyed subscriber in the chat room on Friday and should work well to keep us abreast of the trend as the new week begins. It triggered a 'mechanical' short in the first hour that could have been worth as much as $2,800 before the day ended.  The way the downtrend penetrated p=3938 will slightly favor bears, but we'll stay open-minded to the possibility that DaBoyz will blow out the reverse pattern's 'c' high at 4050.75 Sunday night or Monday. If not, try bottom-fishing at D=3827.00 with as tight a stop-loss as you can craft. _______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 6:41 p.m.): The short at 3994.81, stop 4051.00, triggered at 1:45 p.m. EST. Those of us who swear by 'mechanical' trades are obliged to love this one, if only in theory, since who in their right mind would want to initiate a short at the tail end of a Tuesday before Thanksgiving? The implied $11,000 risk on four contracts argues for a bit of 'camo' on the entry. Depending on how things play out between now and tomorrow morning, I may get a chance to explain exactly how this trade might have been done at tomorrow's tutorial session. In the meantime, do NOT short this rabid badger.

Twitter and bitcoin share a key similarity in that their success while it lasted was just hubris. Realize that both were birthed by a virtual medium capable of monetizing turds if there is any discoverable demand for them. Cardi B's megahit single Wet Ass Pussy was proof of this. Twitter proffered turds in the form of members-only censorship that took delight in defecating on the Bill of Rights, particularly the First Amendment. But it took Elon Musk, with unlimited quantities of f**k-you money, to put a number on Twitter: $44 billion. Unfortunately for him, nearly all of it was for 'good will' that appears to have vanished. Nor is he likely to be consoled when it is discovered that the dark secret of Twitter's overwrought ex-employees is that they can start a Twitter of their own with just a few mill, a rackful of servers and a dozen high school dropouts working from home, paid $20/hour to code. Cute Little Bird So what are the notoriously spoiled workers so disgruntled about? Leave it to an apparent millennial sympathizer reporting for The Wall Street Journal to excuse them with a high-minded quote uttered by no one in particular: "Employees said Mr. Musk pushed people to work well over 40 hours a week, but said they didn’t feel there was a compelling vision to justify it." A compelling vision? Yeah, sure.  And exactly what lofty end did they see themselves serving under Jack Dorsey, Orwell's darkest nightmare masquerading as a little blue birdie? Stay tuned to the blogosphere for more dithering on this and other topics of scant interest to folks who live in the real world. What should please the company's make-believe workforce in any event is that Musk set an intergalactic record for overpayment.  If Twitter had changed hands for,