The institutional chimps who went all-in on AAPL 13 year ago can scarcely conceal their giddiness at the ease with which short-covering has been propelling the most bloated-pig-of-a-stock in history steeply higher. Last week they pushed AAPL decisively past p=171.94 in the chart shown, significantly shortening the odds that the squeeze will ultimately produce a new all-time high at 193.78. This is a more bullish picture than the one I've proffered for the E-Mini S&Ps, but it is AAPL we should watch, since it is the stock singularly responsible for making portfolio managers look like geniuses and for buttering their bread. A swoon to the green line, however unlikely, should not be regarded as the resumption of a bear market presumed by many to have begun on January 4, but as a fabulous buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:17 p.m.): The secondary (p2) pivot at 182.86 shown in the chart (inset) can be used as a minimum rally projection for now. It can also be used to get short with a tight 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 6:27): Today's selloff was another fake. DaBoyz will pull their bids for a day or two, then reload at lower levels. The only thing to notice is that Wednesday's stab higher blew past p2=176.65 and two daunting 'external' peaks made, respectively, at 176.65 (2/9) and 177.18 (1/12). That is quite bullish.
We've got targets as high as 158, but I've switched to a more cautious view with one at 130.13 because crude struggled so hard last week to break free of p=111.17's gravity. Note that I have shifted to the May contract and that it is somewhat more bullish than the April one that we've been using. A swoon to the green line could be bought 'mechanically', stop 92.19, but only if you know how to set up the trade on the very lesser charts to pare the implied entry risk of nearly $40,000 on four contracts down to something closer to $1,000. There doesn't seem to be much interest in this vehicle in the chat room, but I will continue to track it nonetheless, and if I'm in the room, I'll gladly provide real time guidance for any subscriber with a potentially tradeable idea. _______ UPDATE (Mar 29, 11:45 p.m.): The 'mechanical' trade triggered and is currently in-the-black. No one mentioned it in the chat room, confirming my remark above about there being little interest in this vehicle. Oh well. Here's the chart.
Last week's commentary was skeptical that the short squeeze begun two weeks ago in the broad averages would prove to be just a bear rally. Based on the latest technical evidence, it now seems likely that stocks are headed to new all-time highs. This is despite the fact that the world is going to hell in a handbasket, Biden's wrecking-ball presidency has a thousand days to go, China and Russia have joined forces to hobble the U.S. however they can, and there is even talk that America could be in for its first-ever food shortage. This comes on top of soaring prices for gas, groceries and nearly everything else, as well as a looming earnings recession. Throw in Fed tightening to the horizon line and you have quite a list of things about which Wall Street evidently cares little if at all. As always, we need look no further than Apple's chart to understand exactly where the market is headed. AAPL is a perfect proxy for institutional mindset, a one-decision stock since 2009 that has made erstwhile chimpanzees look like geniuses. DaBoyz have hung together on AAPL for 13 years, selling almost none of it from their portfolios, and buying every dip. A 4-for-1 stock split back in August 2020 allowed the rubes and riff-raff to join in the fun -- an opportunity to play AAPL stock and options with relatively small change. It became the biggest-cap stock in the world as a result and is likely to grow even fatter on perpetually spun news that, this time, it's teaming up with Porsche to have yet another vague but promotable go at the car business. Sunny and Mild: Ugh! The chart shows that buyers shredded their way past a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' at 167.80 last week. This all
Ten-Year rates hit my 'max' number today exactly: 2.39%. The chart also shows rates above the maxed-out, 2.31% target of a larger, 'reverse' pattern. Together, these two Hidden Pivot resistance points should offer challenging resistance, notwithstanding the Fed's determination to tighten for the foreseeable future. However, if 10-year yields continue higher, I will need to haul out some very-long-term charts to project a new target. This is even though yields on the 30-Year T-Bond still have room before they hit a 3.02% target that we've been using for about the last six months.
I offer this view of AAPL to complement the menacingly bullish look of last week's short squeeze in the E-Mini S&Ps. Together, the two charts cannot fail to tell us whether new all-time highs are coming. Although both need more upside to make this bet and D=172.05 a lock-up, AAPL's thrust through p=161.08 on Friday strongly implies it won't be a problem getting to at least p2=166.50. That will generate a strong enough impulse leg on the daily chart to put permabears' fond vision of global ruin in jeopardy. Trade the stock with a bullish bias for now, but you'll need to tune to the chat room or your email 'Notifications' to exploit this lamb chop with Hidden Pivot voodoo. [Note: I have revised my numbers to accord with the chart. I am not sure what planet my brain was on when I typed the original numbers.] _______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 12:59 a.m.): AAPL spent most of the day diddling the 172.05 target before relapsing in the final hour. It took two months to get there, so we should expect a pullback that lasts for more than just a few days. Anything less would be quite bullish, but we'll let the stock decide this rather than speculate. ______ UPDATE (Mar 24, 10:40 p.m.): AAPL's take-no-prisoners institutional handlers took all of one day to push the stock past a daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 172.05, signaling a continuation of the uptrend to at least p2=182.86. I've altered the point 'A' low, slightly lowering the 'D' target to 193.78.
With the supposed bear rally about to enter its fifth week, I am reminded of Gideon Drew, "the thing that wouldn't die" in the 1958 horror movie of that name. Like Drew, the stock market has become a disembodied monster, able to command loyalty and teacherous obedience with just a creepy movement of the eye. The fictional Drew was beheaded for devil-worship by Sir Francis Drake, but the evil-thinking piece of him came back to life when the crate in which it was buried got dug up by some hapless D-list actors. They are akin to today's investors, who for 13 years have been mesmerized by a stock-market bull that long ago decoupled from the corpus of reality. The bull will eventually send them over a cliff, as all bull markets inevitably do. But until that happens, the delusional herd will remain transfixed by the incantations of greedy Wall Street hucksters who can spin alluring dreams from even the scariest headlines. Cocksure, Sort of... And scary they are -- so much so that the potentially world-shaking geopolitical disaster in Ukraine ranked only seventh on one well publicized list of Americans' biggest concerns. With such a formidable catalogue of troubles, it seemed more than a little plausible that the powerful selloff of stocks that began on January 4 was the start of a bear market. That is still what many, including some of my most astute guru colleagues, seem to believe. We were pretty cocksure about this when the S&P 500 dove 600 points, or 12%, in the first three weeks of the year. When a powerful bear rally intervened in late January/early February, most of us stood our ground; and then we doubled down on costless certitude when stocks began to plummet anew at the end of February. Now they
I've been shouting about this for many years, but let me repeat it once again: The last thing the world needs is a strong dollar, since it will lead inexorably toward ruinous deflation. Over several decades, I've never wavered in my hyper-bullish outlook for the dollar, even amidst current headlines screaming about inflation, and regardless of what most economists were saying. That's because I see no resolution for the global debt bubble other than via massive liquidations that would be tantamount to deflation. A stock market bear will be the catalyst, assuming some 'black-swan' asteroid does not hit us first. From a technical standpoint, the dollar index is rallying sharply after the briefest of corrections. That is quite bullish, but even moreso because the recent 99.42 peak whence the correction began had hugely overshot its Hidden Pivot rally target. _______ UPDATE (Apr 7, 12:09 p.m.): This chart, too, should have been included earlier, since it shows a can't-miss minimum rally target at 103.25. It is predicated on an easy move past p2=99.74, but I doubt that will be a problem. ______ UPDATE Apr 13, 11:012 p.m.): Here's a pattern I somehow overlooked that shows why DXY topped exactly where it did. The weakness presumably is corrective, since we have the outstanding target at 103.25 noted above..
Gold's feisty comeback on Friday went only far enough to trigger a moderately appealing 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=1991.70). We took a pass nonetheless, since no one wants to go home short gold with war and all-out conflagration threatening Europe. The 1921.60 downside target can still be used, but it would not be unusual for a vehicle that's in a bull market like this one to correct no lower than the secondary pivot, p2 -- in this case 1945.00. Alternatively, a move straightaway through C=2015.10 would be hell-of-bullish. ______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 1:20 p.m.) Sellers have dismembered the 'hidden' support at p2=1945.00 in order to concentrate on Part II of their plan for tonight: gang rape. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:09 a.m.): The 1921.60 target has caught the exact low to-the-tick of last night's avalanche. Sellers have been mau-mauing the Hidden Pivot this morning, but any bottom-fishing done there so far, regardless of the tactic used, would have made money. If you did a trade using my number and still hold a position, please let me know so that I can determine whether to provide tracking guidance. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 9:20 a.m.): The Hidden Pivot has finally given way under brutal pounding. Structural support lies near 1890, within a head-and-shoulders pattern that has traced out over the last three weeks. _______ UPDATE (Mar 15, 10:45 p.m.): The April contract is still groping for a foothold at the 1921.60 correction target, although the breach of this Hidden Pivot support is not exactly a sign of good health. We'll move to the sidelines for now.
Use the arrestingly bullish pattern shown with high confidence in the weeks ahead, since it will allow you to do whatever you please with Silver, whether trading it or smugly anticipating its next move. It cannot miss because 1) it is so beautiful, featuring a spectacularly precise pullback from p=25.58, and 2) we are the only traders in the galaxy who know how to leverage it. The next possible 'buy' worth looking at would be a 'mechanical' at p=25.58, stop 24.19. Tune to the chat room, as always, for risk-mitigating details in real time. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 10:12 p.m.): The big picture pattern (inset), with vast spaces between levels, is intended only for subscribers familiar with Hidden Pivot tactics for greatly reducing risk. In this case, it amounts to about $28,000 on four contracts. A smaller, downtrending pattern, where a=27.39 on 3/9, suggest the low of this selloff will occur at or near 24.63. _______ UPDATE (Mar 16, 11:35 a.m.) As expected, the futures have taken a tradeable bounce from the 24.63 correction target drum-rolled above. The reversal occurred from within three cents of the Hidden Pivot, enabling at least one chat-room regular to report a profit on a partial exit. Whether the support will hold cannot be predicted at present, but if it gives way easily, that would be bearish, considering its compelling clarity. Here's a chart that shows the bounce so far.
Bertie's soporific action points toward D=47,181 within a pattern that has already generated a nice, $3,000+ 'mechanical' winner. It came via a buy at the green line (x=37,554) a week ago, but it is not likely to be so easy if there is a second opportunity. Interim ups and downs will always be tradeable, but I have somewhat reduced chat-room guidance for this vehicle because subscriber interest in trading bitcoin appears to have dropped off. Nevertheless, if you nudge me with an idea you'd like vetted, I'll be happy to help. _______ UPDATE (Mar 28, 5:43 p.m.): Bertie took forever to achieve my 47,181 objective, but today's decisive overshoot has activated a bigger, 'reverse pattern' with a new target at 62,317. Let's see how much resistance p=47,647 poses to short-covering, the main source of buying power in this vehicle. Since few know about the pattern, and even fewer how to use it, you can rely on it whatever your purpose. I'll signal if the big-picture 'mechanical' buy triggers at 40,312, since, although it would be a no-brainer, the more than $7,000 of theoretical initial risk would require a 'camo' entry strategy.