E-Mini S&P

The futures are down slightly in night trading, presumably to give the boys running run to stick it to shorts again on Wednesday.  Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1279.00, the 'D' target of the retracement pattern shown. Its sibling midpoint may endure even though it has already been exceeded by two ticks, but any further slippage would likely send the futures groping for traction down to the 1279.00 target. Since there's a coincidental structural low at 1279.50, camouflage is the preferred method for getting long here.  Keep in mind that the futures need only hit 1290.25 today to be in a position to bully bears until week's end or longer. _____ UPDATE (2:23 a.m. EDT): The futures took a feeble, 2-point bounce from the 1279.00 pivot and then relapsed to a so-far low three ticks beneath it. I'd suggest exiting now for a small profit, since the slight breach hints of further weakness ahead.

So far, the selloff from June 1's 1342.50 high is uncorrected after exceeding three prior lows on the daily chart. This is plenty bearish, but it would grow even moreso if the downtrend were to breach the St. Paddy's Day low at 1237.50 without any intervening rallies of at least two days. Skidding action such as we saw yesterday seems incapable of generating a strong rally, so we should look to get short on any feint higher. Camouflage is the best way in, and, as of around 10:09 p.m. Monday EDT, the five-minute chart looked like the ticket for a very low-risk play.  Camouflage aside, a decisive push past a 1270.75 midpoint resistance could yield a shortable 'D' at 1276.75. _______ UPDATE (4:32 a.m. EDT):  It's hard to know exactly what is being celebrated tonight, but DaBoyz have trapped bears in a nasty short-squeeze that so far has exceeded my 1267.75 target by two points.  The move is impulsive on the lesser charts, but it would take only a further 5 points, unpaused, for this spree to rack up two more external peaks, turning the trap into a boodbath. FYI, the hourly chart would turn decisively bullish today at 1290.25, setting the stage for a romp into week's end.

The broad averages gave it all back and then some on Friday, justifying our skepticism toward the previous day's surge.  Now, the E-Mini S&Ps looked headed down to at least 1251.50, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown. However, this number is intended as merely a minimum downside objective for Monday, and if it should fail easily, we must heed the possibility that the selling is about to turn into an avalanche.

In Monday's touts for the Dow Industrials and E-Mini S&Ps, I've provided some precise reference points so that we can know whether mere weakness might be turning into a cascade.  Charts are included with both, so check them out if you want to be prepared for the worst.

I remain skeptical toward this rally, although it certainly wouldn't be a bad thing if it were to get legs and delivers us a fat short at higher levels. My hunch is that the broad averages will retrace at least half of the downdraft from the June 1 high, 1347.75.  In any case, because it is proceeding from almost precisely where Hidden Pivot analysis had predicted, we should trade with a bullish bias for the time being. There were no compelling camouflage opportunities as we went to press, but night owls may find things to do on the 5-minute chart if subtleties like the one sketched materialize.  (Want to learn how to reduce entry risk to a bare minimum using the Hidden Pivot camouflage technique? Click here for information about the upcoming webinar.)

By breaking beneath a key low recorded on April 18, the major averages have generated bearish impulse legs on their respective daily charts. This is shown in the chart accompanying today's QQQ tout, and it is one reason that we bailed out of a long position in that vehicle when it went against us only slightly.  Downside targets in other vehicles, including the E-Mini S&Ps, had been more than a month in coming, and their failure to engender strong bounces  is a second sign that trouble is brewing.

We usually look for rally targets to get short; yesterday, however, with the futures down nearly 100 points from early May's Mother of All Bear Rallies peak, we tried bottom-fishing -- with inconclusive results. The E-Minis fell almost precisely to the target I'd billboarded last week, but they couldn't get airborne.  Moreover, because the target had been five weeks in coming, we had good reason to expect a substantial bounce. That could still happen, but the fact that it did not happen yesterday on first contact with the target is ostensibly bearish. To be more certain of this, we'll set the bar today at  1288.00, a tick above the peak shown in the chart.  A print at that price would turn the hourly chart bullish for the first time in two weeks, setting up a possible camouflage trade. Otherwise, look for the futures to continue lower -- to at least 1269.75, a Hidden Pivot support hat can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point.  Its provenance is shown in the chart.

There were some near-bullseyes in the day’s touts, and so we looked closely at the patterns that had produced them: in the E-Mini S&P, Gold and Silver. A prediction earlier in the week of more tedium was holding, and although bullion futures were having their tradable ups and downs, there was little net movement to suggest a trend. We also found reason for extreme caution if Comex Gold should spike to a marginal new record high, since, for reasons of a long-term Hidden Pivot target, it has the potential to be the Mother of All Bull Traps.

It's understandable if you've lost interest in the downside targets I gave here earlier at, respectively, 1273.50 and 1276.50, since I've practically lost interest myself. Getting there has been pure tedium, a downtrend punctuated each day by either a Whoopee Cushion rally or numerous feints higher.  Alas, there's also an excess of enticing Hidden Pivot targets to bottom-fish at the moment.  One that I especially like that is perhaps best suited for Tuesday night owls lies at 1274.75, and it can be bid with a 1.00-point stop-loss.  At the time this recommendation was published, the futures had exceeded by a single tick the 1281.25 midpoint associated with that number.  Accordingly, you should be alert for a possible bounce that could be traded bullishly via camouflage on the three-minute chart.  If there is no rally, or not much of one, that would affirm the outlook for more slippage to as low as 1269.75. Incidentally, if you don’t subscribe to Rick’s Picks but would like to know more about the proprietary camouflage trading technique that we use to keep entry risk to a bare minimum, click here for information about the Hidden Pivot Webinar in late June.  You could also take a free week’s trial subscription that will give you access not only to detailed trading recommendations each day, but to a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from all over the world. ______ UPDATE (10:02 a.m. EDT):  The 1276.50 pivot we'd grown so bored with caught the overnight low within a single tick, so officially we did nothing.  As a practical matter, a camouflage long entry from the 6:48 a.m. (EDT) bottom would have been difficult to justify, even on the 3-minute chart.