E-Mini S&P

The trade I advised yesterday from 1192.25 would have allowed you to get short two ticks off the intraday high, and to reap a paper gain thereof of anywhere from $200 and $550 per contract. (Some of you may still be short if you followed my advice to swing for the fences by holding at least a small portion of the original position against an adjusted, 1993.00 stop-loss.)  Let's see if we can do it again tonight, bottom-fishing a Hidden Pivot support at 1177.75 with a bid there and an 1176.75 stop-loss.  On the 3-minute chart, the coordinates yielding that target are: A=1193.00, B=1182.50, and C=1188.25. _______ UPDATE (10:40 a.m. EDT):  The pivot at 1177.75 evinced no support whatsoever, and so we were stopped out with a 1.00-point ($50) traidng loss. This implies more weakness ahead, but buyers could negate it with a thrust exceeding 1188.25.

Look for a tradable peak at exactly 1192.25 on the next thrust.  That's a single tick lower than the target given here earlier, and it can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 1193.25.  If you're looking for a way to enter with the uptrend, consider doing so via camouflage on a pullback to 1174.75, the 'X' entry point of a lesser pattern.  The midpoint of the larger one is 1182.75, and a decisive move past it Monday morning, particularly on a gap, would all but guarantee a move to at least 1192.25. ______ UPDATE (2:19 a.m. EDT):  Okay, I'll admit it: The idea of hacking off my right arm if the futures failed to rally to at least 1192.50 seemed pretty ghastly. Fortunately, I won't have to make good on my promise from last week, since the futures, driven by the usual gang of Sunday night pederasts, drivelers, lobocks, and parepithymiacs, have spiked to exactly 1193.00 so far this evening, triggering the short advised above.  Since three ticks were risked theoretically at the outset, we needed at least three time that -- or nine ticks (2.25 points) -- on the pullback to implement a no-loss-likely trailing stop on a single-contract position; and/or to take a partial (50%) profit on a multi-contract position.  In either case, if you want to be ultracautious, consider stopping yourself out if a bullish impulse leg is formed on the three-minute chart; on the five-minute chart if you want to be slightly more daring; or above the 1193.00 high if you want to swing for the fences.  Meanwhile, since the futures have already pulled back to 1188.50, making the short profitable on paper, I'll turn the management of the trade over to you and say good night!  

An 1192.50 rally target given here yesterday remains valid in theory, although the price action in this vehicle has been so flaky lately that I'm not going to hazard a prediction as to when in the day it might be reached. Night owls should consider bottom-fishing at 1168.25, stop 1167.50 if the futures have gone no higher than 1177.50 first. The pattern yielding the downside target is glow-in-the-dark obvious on the 30-minute chart, where A=1186.25 and B=1167.25.

During yesterday's real-time tutorial session, I pledged, perhaps rashly, to hack off my right arm if the futures failed to achieve a Hidden Pivot target at 1186.00  (and after that, 1192.50).  So, should I now be nervous just because DaSleazeballs have opened the sluice gates, causing the futures to fall Wednesday night from their intraday high of 1180.00?  Probably, yes. But long experience tells me buyers will come through for me unless there is some sort of news -- "Trumpets Heard from On High" -- to cause shorts to relax for an hour or two when stocks open Thursday morning.  In any event, night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1172.25, stop 1171.50. The bid is a tick above a 'd' target than can be found on the 15-minute chart, where a=1179.00 at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. _______ UPDATE (9:30 p.m. EDT): We missed a beauty by a single tick when the futures popped from 1172.50.  Since we don't 'do' sloppy seconds, you should cancel the trade.  ______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:33 a.m. EDT):  The futures are having a very Hidden Pivot day, having bottoming overnight at 1172.00 and then rallying this morning to a so-far high at 1186.25.  We missed the trade, but at least I've still got my right arm. Bulls evidently liked the news concerning weak retail sales, since, won't that mean more (yippeeeee!) "stimulus"?

If we accept that yesterday's selloff was so transparently corrective as to have changed nothing about the long-term bullish picture in Silver and Gold, then we must also accept that the broad averages too will soon be bounding blithely higher, perfectly oblivious to the real world and driven by otherwise inert "stimulus" money.  Technically speaking, the first convincing sign of the E-Mini's resurgence would come at 1178.25, since it is there that a bullish impulse leg would become manifest on the hourly chart.  Night owls can try bottom-fishing at the 'p' of the still-forming abc downtrend on the right-hand edge of the chart.

The futures are getting dragged down by the carnage tonight in IBM and AAPL, but when was the last time hard selling in the latter was not a brazen shakedown induced by canny buyers?  In any event, the E-Mini S&P is down just 7 points, a relative intraday bargain, and one must infer that night-shift predators are piling on.  I'd turn bearish if the futures were to open even-to-slightly-higher, however, since that would indicate that the thieves doing the buying tonight had given up on making a big score.  If so, look out below!  Please note that the hourly chart would turn bearish on a print at 1155.00.

The futures are off the equivalent of 60 Dow points late Sunday night, but the selling so far is well within Friday's range and looks contrived to shake down widows and orphans.   A midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1167.25 has contained the selling so far, but if it gives way, that would open a path to as low as 1159.00, a hidden support that you could bottom-fish with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. The trade will likely work best for night owls, though, since too much noodling around on the C-D side of the pattern is apt to queer the "Hidden Pivot effect." ________ UPDATE (10:25 .m. EDT):  Our trade never triggered, since Da Sleazeballs could push the futures no lower than 1164.75.  This telling weakness in the faked weakness set up a a moderate short-squeeze rally overnight.  So far, it has pushed the December contract as high this morning as 1178.25, but some back-pressure will need to build up before this hoax can vault the three peaks near 1180.00 that were recorded last week.

It's Sunday night, around 10:34 p.m. EDT, and sellers are attempting to drive the futures down to a correction target at 1353.30. That's a Hidden Pivot support, and you can try bottom-fishing there with a 1352.80 stop-loss. If the stop is hit, consider it a warning of more weakness over the near term -- presumably to at least 1349.00, a Fibonacci-based support from the hourly chart.  Looking at a somewhat bigger picture, a 1415.40 rally target given here earlier will remain valid unless 1325.60 is exceeded to the downside. _______ UPDATE (10:29 a.m. EDT): My 1353.30 target caught the low of a so-far $18 bounce within a dime, so even if you used a stop-loss as tight a two ticks, you got on board safely.  If you initiated the trade with a multiple of four contacts, keep 25% of the original position for a potential home-run.  Single-contract longs should use a 1362.10 stop-loss for now, o-c-o with a 1380.00 objective, since a print at the former is where a bearish impulse leg would be signaled on the 3-minute chart.  Officially, I'll track a two-contract long for your further guidance, with one of the contracts stopped as above, o-c-o.

For a second straight day, the futures pounded on a Hidden Pivot rally target at 1182.25 without getting past it.  Since the target was eight days in the making, a three-day consolidation would be about right. Accordingly, we should look for perhaps one more day in the woods before buyers emerge victorious yet again. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1168.25, a midpoint support shown in the accompanying chart. A three-tick stop-loss is about as much as I would risk, but if it's triggered, the futures would be signaling more downside over the near term to as low as 1160.00.