E-Mini S&P

And now comes 1182.25.  The futures had little trouble pushing past its sibling midpoint at 1164.00 yesterday, so the target would appear to be a lock-up. Notice how the authoritative pitch of Tuesday's rally has rendered last Friday's sleazy swoon visually insignificant -- burying the evidence, as it were. Night owls perusing the lesser charts will find that a poorly camouflaged rally has already exceeded the intraday high -- a brazen move, considering the time of day.  The first point 'C' of the resulting pattern lies at 1167.25 (10:03 p.m. to 10:12 p.m. EDT on the 3-minute bars), but I'd suggest waiting for a second 'C' to form if you're looking to enter with-the-trend at point 'X'. ______ UPDATE (10:09 a.m. EDT): The three-minute bar chart provided excellent camouflage, but even night owls may have been challenged to stay awake, since it wasn't until 3:45 a.m. EDT that a very low-stress long entry was triggered -- at 1168.75.

The futures were slip-sliding away shortly after midnight EDT, down the equivalent of 70 Dow points. My immediate target is 1151.50, a Hidden Pivot support that lies 1.75 points beneath the so-far overnight low, but because two of the three price coordinates are poorly defined, I wouldn't attempt bottom-fishing there unless you know how to do it with "camouflage."  Keep in mind that the daily chart, and not just the hourly, would turn very bearish on a drop today to 1127.00.  That's the equivalent of 225 Dow points, but a slide of that magnitude is hardly inconceivable. The last such selloff occurred on August 11, so you could say we're overdue. _______ UPDATE (11:15 a.m. EDT):  Although the futures did bottom overnight at 1151.75, a single tick from the target, camouflage entry opportunities, even on the 3-minute chart, were difficult to find. The first such place I can identify was at 1156.75 (8:33 a.m.), and although the C-D leg reached the midpoint, clinching a small theoretical profit (or at least no loss), the futures went nowhere (other than into the usual opening-hour, gratuitous conniptions).

Friday's brazen, single-bar swoon down to 1145.50 turned the intraday charts into ca-ca, and I almost want to discard the offending bar, calculating the bullish patterns that remain without it. Instead, we 'll simply start with another, promising low that followed it by two hours and which is part of a bullish pattern that in the final hour telegraphed yet more grief for bears when the new week begins. Notice how the intraday high at 1164.00 peek-a-booed above the previous day's top. The ostensible conquest was only by a single tick, but as you know, that is sufficient to create an impulse leg that has in fact made any pullback to 1157.50 or higher a consolidation.  Pivoteers should look at entry opportunities thereof, since the impulse leg is just squishy enough that it may not require a camouflage entry -- only one at the conventional point 'X'.

Savor the 16-point pullback from within two ticks of our 1163.25 target for yet a few more hours, because this lovely bearish moment is not going to last.  As I attempted to make clear in yesterday's tout, any rally exceeding the May peak at 1160.75 would be warning shorts to batten the hatches.  From a Hidden Pivot perspective, we should watch to see how the pattern in the chart plays out, since an imminent resurgence would be telegraphed by a bounce from whatever midpoint support forms. That midpoint can be bottom-fished with a tight stop, by the way, since such lazy, looping patterns as this one is shaping up to be are conducive to precisely defined opportunity. ________ UPDATE (8:59 a.m. EDT):  Ahhh, fascinating.  Much like the chart I'd drawn shows, the futures came down to within three ticks of the midpoint support, which at the time was 1151.25;  then, they bounced three points, to a high of 1154.00 at 8:27 a.m. But if our eyes -- and Tradestation data -- are to be believed, what came next was right out of Friday-Follies looney land: a swoon down to 1145.50, then a rocket ride up to 1158.75 -- all on the alleged "news" that unemployment had held steady at 9.6%, and that  employers had cut more jobs than the usual idiots were expecting.

An ostensible cream-puff-of-a-Hidden Pivot at 1163.25 is proving to be more than a little challenging because of a structural resistance at 1160.75 created a while back, during last spring's landslide.  We'd be forced to respect this toothsome bear rally if the peak is surpassed, even if it takes another ten days to do it. The big picture is shown in the daily chart reproduced alongside. ______ UPDATE (11:18 a.m. EDT): We hold no position officially, but if you shorted 1163.25 (as someone in the chat room evidently did) with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, the trade was a winner.  Half might have been covered as early as 1160.25, but I'd suggest a trailing stop based on impulse legs on the lesser charts for what may remain.  If you shorted four or more contracts, hold one or two for a possible grand slam.  That said, the move above May's 1160.75 peak puts the burden of proof on bears' shoulders. The fact that stocks are resisting falling -- as they nearly always do any more -- while gold and silver are getting pummeled, is further evidence that higher highs are coming for the broad averages.

I didn't even check my WSJ "crib sheet" to find out what supposedly caused yesterday's rally.  Some unholy mixture of stupidity and greed, to be sure -- with just a touch of evil.  Anyway, the rally has further to go -- presumably to at least 1163.25, an up-to-the-minute Hidden Pivot derived from the pattern shown in the chart. I'd said earlier in the week that the pattern would need to develop a couple more days' worth of symmetry before the futures ejaculated higher -- and so they have, borne aloft by bears who evidently will never learn.  The target is short-able, although its obviousness, which comes from the lovely symmetry of the rally pattern itself, makes me a little nervous about laying 'em out with the usual penny-ante stop-loss. But use 1164.25 if you're feeling lazy; otherwise, you should look for a subtle "camo" abc downturn on the 3-minute chart to get you aboard.

We'd almost forgotten what a day of selling was like when unrelieved by the hysteria of a short-squeeze at some point, usually in the final hour. It's a change, for sure, and so we'll want to pay close attention to any further signs that buyers may be suffering from terminal fatigue. The action Monday night was too screwy to parse, since there appeared to be a rather large seller suppressing any follow-through to the machine-driven upthrust that ended Monday's session. Anything below 1144.00 is bearish, however, since it follows a bearish impulse leg begun at that price when yesterday's 1127.00 low breached last Thursday's by a single tick.  This is bearish, as I have noted, though not quite ominous, not yet. ________ UPDATE (8:50 a.m.): The futures have rallied overnight to 1142.25, but we'll set the bar at 1146.75 to separate success from failure as far as DaBoyz efforts to get a short-squeeze going.  That's where a bullish impulse leg would be created on intraday charts of higher degree.

An ancient target at 1159.25 remains valid, although my ardor for shorting it with the usual penny-ante stop-loss has cooled some. If it turns out instead that the dirge-like price action of the last two weeks has been distribution, it will probably be Wednesday at the earliest that the futures can fall from the sky. A print down to 1127.00 would turn the hourly chart bearish in any event, but if you're looking for a more sensitive tripwire, try 1137.25 on the five-minute chart. Late Sunday night, the futures were headed the wrong way -- i.e., higher -- but there would be no credible upside threat until such time as they hit 1147.75. Night owls looking for a camouflage entry opportunity can discover for themselves the look-to-the-left peak that corresponds to that number on the three-minute chart.

The futures are trading exactly where they were two weeks ago, although they've burned a ton of fuel going nowhere. We'd have thought that a run-up to an 1159.75 target signaled on Tuesday would have been unavoidable, but so far, even under the duress of short-squeeze hysteria, it has been avoided.  Since stocks appear to be capable of marking time on bad economic news, however, we can only surmise that the first mote of good news will "actualize" shorts so as to produce the all-but-inevitable squeeze to 1159.75.  Camouflage aficionados should look to board a small abc up-pattern once the 1143.50 Hidden Pivot midpoint of a larger one has given way slightly. If, on the other hand you're hoping for the worst, a fall to 1125.50 is possible if 1141.75 has not been exceeded to the upside first. Its sibling midpoint at 1133.50 can be bottom-fished by night owls with a three-tick stop-loss, but your edge will thin as dawn approaches. ________ UPDATE (10:17 a.m. EDT): The futures have been short-squeezed to modest gains after having failed to make any new lows overnight.  The not-very-ambitious target at 1159.75 remains valid, although one cannot help noticing that DaScumballs have achieved precious little loft this morning on ostensibly positive economic data. Once more, the profound underlying weakness of a market that continues to go higher nonetheless is its salient feature.