E-Mini S&P

Now that we have Sunday Night Opportunism figured out, meaning we "know" that it always pays to fade the trend just ahead of a new week, we can hoot and guffaw as shares move higher tonight. With the futures currently up 3.50 points, the implication is that DaBoyz are reading weakness, backing away from their offers so that widows and pensioners can foolishly chase the index futures higher.  So what to do? Although I rarely suggest playing fast and loose, because we are short one contract, effectively from 1220.00, we can afford to gamble a little. Continue to use a fixed stop at 1171.25, but make it o-c-o with an order to cover the short at 1144.00.  The worst we can do, in theory, is come away with a $2400 profit. If you are on board, continue to check for updates, since I may decide to let our profits run if the futures come down hard. _______ UPDATE (1169.25):  The futures rallied overnight to within a single tick of our stop-loss, but the selloff since has been too shallow to suggest DaBoyz are about to loosen their iron grip on shorts' cahones. In any case, we'll simply stick with our plan, using the stops given above.

This vehicle has been very accommodating lately, allowing us to catch some nicely tradable swings with great precision.  Yesterday we shorted a Hidden Pivot target at 1175.75 with a 1.50-point stop-loss that proved more than adequate.  If you initiated the trade on a single contract, use a fixed stop at 1163.00, switching to a four-point trailing stop when 1155.00 is hit. If you entered on four contracts, which is implicit unless I have specified otherwise, cover two of them at these levels, tie another to the same conditions governing the single-contract short, and let the remaining contract ride.  Our paper gain on the position at these levels is $3150. ________ UPDATE (9:48 a.m. EST):  Da Sleazeballs ran the futures higher overnight on zero volume -- that is what They do best, even if it is Their only trick -- and so we exited the single contract on an 1163.00 stop for a theoretical gain of $625.  On the multi-lot position, partial-profit taking has left us short one contract with a 1220.00 basis.  For now, use an 1171.25 stop-loss that is o-c-o with a buy-stop at 1156.00. _______ FURTHER UPDATE:   Our short survived the rally; however, the subsequent plunge did not permit us to cover the contract -- for a $3200 theoretical gain -- since the low occurred at 1156.50, two ticks above our bid.  We are still on track to beat Mr Market on this one, so don't sweat it.

In the absence of even a speck of buying interest, the 1175.75 rally target is still the most compelling choice we've got. Short there with an 1177.25 stop-loss -- a pittance if you were on board for the nearly $2800 ride we got from Monday's 1146.75 low. Alternatively, the futures would need to fall to 1157.25 today to turn the (very) lesser charts bearish.

We've enjoyed one heckuva ride from Monday's exact low, and the single contract we still hold is showing a theoretical gain of more than $2,800 at these levels. The futures took off yesterday after narrowly missing  the 1157.25 stop-loss I'd advised, and they never looked back.    Now, the 1175.75  rally target we've been using not only remains viable, it will be an enticing place to reverse our long position and go short. However, you should use a "dynamic trailing stop" between here to the target, shrinking the original four-point trailing stop so that you are never risking more than a third of what you stand to gain if the futures reach our target.  Based on a so-far high for this rally of 1170.50, that means your trailing stop should be no wider than about 2.00 points.  If shorting at 1175.75, which I am explicitly recommending, use some of your profits to cushion a relatively loose initial stop-loss at 1177.25. ______ UPDATE:  Using the shrinking trailing stop advised, we exited at 1168.00 for a theoretical gain of $2750.  I am surprised the futures were unable to muster the modest finishing stroke to the 1175.75 target.  As always, however, they seem even more unable to weaken significantly.

Because yesterday's buy recommendation caught the overnight low to the exact tick, we ended the day long a single contract whose cost basis has been reduced by profit-taking to 1113.00.  Those who initiated the trade on a single contract were advised to exit earlier at 1160.25, producing a theoretical gain of $650 on a day trade. For now, continue to use an 1175.75 target, one-cancels-the-other, with a stop-loss at 1157.25.  If the futures hit 1166.00, implement a 4-point trailing stop.

Although the futures are currently down the equivalent of nearly 70 Dow points, it has become routine for me to issue a warning each Sunday night that it is bulls who are manipulating prices lower, the better to exhaust sellers and create a safe bottom for themselves.  We also note routinely that we cannot remember the last time that a Sunday night selloff showed any follow-through on Monday morning. That said, the move thus far is impulsively bearish on the intraday charts, though presumably bound no lower than the Hidden Pivot midpoint. It lies at 1146.75 and can be bottom-fished, presumably by night owls,  with a stop-loss no wider than 1.00 point.  Please note that if the stop is hit, the futures should be considered bound for 1142.00, the target of the larger pattern shown in the accompanying chart. That's a Hidden Pivot too, and it too can be bought with an 1142.25 bid, stop 1141.75.  _______ UPDATE (10:22 a.m. EST):  Traders who followed my advice caught the exact low overnight, 1146.75.  With the futures currently trading 9 points higher, I'll recommend taking profits on half  the position and implementing a four-point trailing stop once 1157.00 is hit. That will refresh the bullish impulse on the lesser charts.  If you initiated the trade on a single contract, use an 1151.00 stop-loss until 1157 is hit, then a five-point stop-loss o-c-o with an order to exit at 1160.25.  ______ FURTHER UPDATE (1:22 p.m. EST):  Single-contract positions exited at 1160.25 for a $650 profit on the trade.   Those who initiated the trade with four contracts should cover an additional contract now, on a 1062 bid.  Imputing the gains so far gives us a cost basis of 1113.00 for the single contract (or a fourth of the initial position) that we will continue to hold.  For now, use an 1175.75

We held a mirror under the April contract's snout tonight and determined that it had ceased breathing.  Its revival presumably is nigh, however, because Bollinger Bands can only get so close before  they reverse polarity. We'll move to the sidelines in any event, since  Friday Follies might be more raucous than usual.

Just because the futures have pulped an 1157.25 target on the weekly chart does not mean we cannot remain properly skeptical by requiring every uptick on the hourly chart to pass the sniff test. That approach yields an 1177.50 target to shoot for, based on the pattern shown in the inset.  Camouflage entry opportunities will be in limited supply intraday, and so I'll suggest using the 1-minute chart to take the first available ride after the opening bell.  Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 1160.25 with a three-tick stop-loss. That's the midpoint pivot of a down-pattern on the 2-minute chart where A=1165.25 (March 17, 2:26 p.m. EST) _______ UPDATE (2:04 p.m. EST):  The midpoint pivot at 1160.25 gave way easily, telegraphing the intraday low at 1156.25 that was yet to occur.  That is a single tick from the 1156.50 'D'  target associated with 1160.25. (On the 5-minute chart, A=1165.25, B=1157.75, and C=1164.00.)  The theoretical loss on the trade was about $50.

There  are two targets just above that look like enticing shorts.  The first lies at 1157.00, but I am wary of initiating a position there because the futures have already hit 1157.25 as of midnight and the night is still young.  The second lies at 1161.00 and would give us a little more cushion against what looks to be a developing short-squeeze. The risk is that the top will occur below our offer, perhaps at 1157.25.  In any event, I'll recommend offering two contracts short at 1161.00, stop 1162.25.  The chart shows the two relevant patterns.