E-Mini S&P

I'm not going to lie and tell you how jazzed I am about the prospect of shorting 1202.50, stop 1204.25.  It's a Hidden Pivot all right, and it seems likely to show some stopping power. But we shouldn't kid ourselves about a possible Mother of All Tops.  Ordinarily this trade would get a three tick stop-loss, but we'll give it a little more because...well, you never know.  If we lose the $87 that's theoretically at risk, just remember that the last few winners in the E-Mini produced enough in theoretical gains to offset scores of $87 losers.  ______ UPDATE:   There's $87.50 we can kiss good-bye!  But it bought us the near-certitude that ESM10 is about to cruise on up to at least 1212.50 over the very near term.  Short there too, please, stop 1214.25.

Yes it's boring, but we'll use the 1202.50 rally target again as a place to get short, placing a stop-loss three ticks above it.  This Hidden Pivot promises to be no miracle cure for short squeeze-itis, but it will allow us to play without risking much.  Night owls can use the tail end of yesterday's corrective flag (A=1193.25 at 3:15 p.m. EST) to bottom-fish a Hidden Pivot target at 1191.25 . A two-tick stop-loss is what I am recommending, but you can widen it by 50%  if you feel I'm being too stingy. :)

We'll put aside 1196.50 as a place to attempt getting short, since buyers are eating through the Hidden Pivot tonight like some insatiable strain of larva.  I like another Hidden Pivot at 1202.50 better anyway, since it is just above too-obvious resistance at 1200 rather than just below it. A three-tick stop-loss would be appropriate, and it implies that you could start taking partial profits on a pullback to 1200.25. The relevant coordinates are shown in the accompanying chart, and you'll want to notice the sibling resemblance between k-A and B-C that makes the target enticing. If it is rudely brushed aside nonetheless, we'll be looking at more upside to at least 1212.25 (also shortable, stop 1213.25).

The bounce came from close enough to a predicted midpoint support to telegraph the rally that followed.  Exuberant and whacky for a few hours, it petered out just shy of some supply peaks recorded earlier in the week. If buyers get second wind today, you can short our old friend at 1196.50 at your discretion, since the pivot is still valid. It is not intended that you hold a position over the weekend, so don't get involved if you are not certain you can exit.

Although we had our hearts set on shorting the little sonofabitch at 1196.50, yesterday's dive has turned us into reluctant buyers.  The pellucid abc down-pattern shown in the chart yields a 'p' midpoint and downside 'D' at, respectively, 1173.00 and 1166.50.  The higher number is unusable for bottom-fishing because it closely coincides with Wednesday's panic-stricken low;  however, you can bid the lower number with a three-tick stop-loss.  If it's bombed, notice that the obvious high at 1188.00 can be used as a proper 'A', providing us with a possible second chance for tightly stopped buying down at 1164.75. If that number is achieved with at least 90 minutes left in the session, you should buy it aggressively, stop 1163.75.

The Junes can be as coy and foxy as they want, but it won't change our target:  1196.50, a Hidden Pivot resistance that can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 1198.25. Whereas some rallies climb a wall of worry, this one is ratcheting higher each day on chartists' certitude that nothing ever gets quite as overbought as this.  Wanna bet?

The futures made slight headway toward the 1196.50 target flagged here yesterday.  Longs may find it difficult to board, since the uptrend has unfolded in fitful spasms sandwiched between wholly unengaging stretches of monotony.  The target remains shortable nonetheless, and you can use a stop-loss as tight as 1198.25.  The trade is less than optimal because the Hidden Pivot is so close to widely anticipated round-number resistance at 1200.

There are numerous ABC patterns that point higher, but the one that looks most promising points to 1196.50, a Hidden Pivot that we can use as a minimum rally projection for the near term.  Notice in the chart how the k-A and B-C segments have a kindred resemblance. The target is too close to round-number resistance at 1200.00 to be ideal for shorting, but we should take a stab at it anyway, since it represents the most logical and precise place for a stall just below 1200.

I've highlighted an 1197.50 rally target on the charts -- a Hidden Pivot that seems as right as rain to use for a minimum upside target.  If bears should be blessed with a second consecutive day of weakness, however, you can try bottom-fishing at 1158.25, stop 1156.75.  Bulls and bears alike should consider a print at 1171.25 the go-ahead for yet another preternatural upthrust.