E-Mini S&P

Bulls and bears duked it out Monday with no clear winner, but I give the latter a small edge for now because buyers were able to recoup only half of the 14-point drop that began the day.  We are in any event using a bigger-picture rally target that lies more than 100 points above, but it will probably have to wait. Of more immediate concern is whether we should place a 'mechanical' bid at the red line or instead wait for a more robust correction down to the green one. I'll suggest the latter, but with the caveat that full-bore corrections that could make buying theoretically easier have not been a feature of the Trump Rally.  Whatever happens, we hold DIA puts to give us some leverage if sellers should unexpectedly grow a pair.

We're using a bull market target of 2478.00 that lies a little more than 100 points above (see inset).  The Dow would be trading just below 22,000 if  it's achieved. In the meantime, the pullback into week's end has been relatively mild so far, and although it could conceivably flash a mechanical buy signal if it continues down to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 2353.00, any buying we might do there will likely be by way of a less-risky entry technique such as 'camouflage'. But we shouldn't hesitate to get long 'mechanically' if the selling brings the futures down to the green line. My strong gut feeling is that any rally thereupon would reach, at the very least, the pattern's midpoint pivot where we could take a partial profit. To be less technical about it, I'll note that odds of the 2478.00 target's eventually being achieved seem quite good. It could mark the bull market's final lunge, of course, but as things evolve in whatever way they do, we'll try not to dwell too obsessively on the notion of shorting the Mother of All Tops.

The Trump Rally has entered the realm of Awesome, so steady and steep that it could conceivably provide a fitting blowoff for the most spectacular U.S. bull market of them all.  That's what we've all been waiting for, right?  For sure, it will happen, but probably not before the E-Mini S&PS climb at least to the 2478.00 target shown. That would put the Dow at around 21,700.  I have viable targets all the way up to around 25,000, but we'll take them one at a time, since the rally could end suddenly and at any time, presumably in a way that will take most investors by surprise. We bought a few DIA puts intraday at an ostensibly promising and significant Hidden Pivot resistance, but the Indoos shredded their way past it, leaving the options we'd purchased for 1.00 within 15 cents of being stopped out at 0.50. The pattern shown has strong confirmation in the precise dance at the 2353.00 midpoint pivot; moreover, the way in which this erstwhile impediment has been left in the dust puts the odds of a move to 2478.00 at around 90%. Trade it if you dare, but don't get in its way. _______ UPDATE (Mar 2, 7:42 p.m.): A pullback to the red line (see inset), a midpoint pivot at 2353.00, could create a 'mechanical' buying opportunity, provided the pullback meets our criteria. We would use any entry signal generated thereof to fashion a 'camouflage' entry with considerably less risk. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time.

You can use the pattern shown to catch the next thrust higher, presumably to its 2379.25 Hidden Pivot target. The easiest way to board came earlier today via a 'mechanical' bid placed at the green line.  This evening, the red line 'midpoint pivot' can be used in the same way. Notice, however, that the last five or so bars provide the sort of tradable ABC pattern we look for to initiate very-low-risk entries using the 'camouflage' technique.  The opportunity would ripen if a pullback creating a point 'C' low comes from comes from 2368.75 or lower. I've sketched this by adding a couple of hypothetical price bars at the right-hand edge of the chart.

You already know where the important targets lie, but you can check the archive for the previous tout just to be sure. Meanwhile, I'll stick with little stuff in daily updates such as this one, since this supposedly tricky vehicle has been as predictable lately as a pair of loaded dice. On Thursday, for instance, it topped in the opening minutes two ticks beneath the 2368.00 target I'd sent out the previous night.  The subsequent plunge, as gratuitous as a plantar wart, could have been worth as much as $700 to anyone who caught the move. The equally gratuitous rally into the close served only to keep those who might otherwise have fallen into peaceful slumber on their guard for Friday. You can use the 2371.50 target shown in the chart to make tradable sense of things, but night owls may have another option: Bidding 2358.75, stop 2357.75 to bottom-fish at a promising midpoint Hidden Pivot support. On the 15-minute chart, here are the coordinates: a=2367.50; b=2353.00; and c=2365.00. ________ UPDATE (Feb 26, 7:51 p.m. EST): 2371.50 is still exactly where the little sonofabitch is headed -- and yes, the pullback Sunday night to within a single tick of p=2362.50 was most surely a 'mechanical' buying opportunity for night-owls. The set-it-and-forget-it stop-loss would have been at 2359.25, risking a theoretical $160 per contract (rounded) for a shot at $462.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 27, 5:54 p.m.): Buyers ran out of steam three ticks shy of the 2371.50 target flagged above (see inset, a new chart). Although that's less than a point, it's still enough for us to infer possible weakness over the next day or two, if not longer. The selling would begin to look serious if it exceeds 2349.00 to the downside on Tuesday.

There are two interesting Hidden Pivot resistances above these levels -- interesting because one of them has the potential to douse February's buying spree, the other quite possibly to end a bull market that in March will enter its ninth year. To give my targets the best chance of working precisely, I will not be sharing these numbers with anyone who is not a paying subscriber. Which is to say, we are about to "go dark" at these critical levels. The first resistance lies at 2359.50, a hair above where the futures topped this morning during holiday-shortened hours.  The chart shows why I am watching this number closely even though the higher target stands to be a bigger deal.  Notice how the futures played hokie-pokey with the red line for nearly two months before finally taking off. This has confirmed the pattern itself and its target. My expectation is that the target will be surmounted, making a further ascent to 2403.30 about as certain as an ostensibly unpredictable event could be. The interesting thing about the second number is that it coincides very closely with the 21,049 target I've been using for the Dow Industrials. As always, I will reserve judgment about the bull market's ongoing health until I've seen how buyers interact with these two Hidden Pivot resistance points.  You should therefore consider this tout a heads-up to prepare yourselves for a potentially important price reversal. Alternatively, if so daunting a 'hidden' resistance as 2403.30 is easily brushed aside, we would need to re-imagine what this bull market is capable of. _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 9:51 p.m. EST): Next minor stop on the way up: 2368.00. On the 60-minute chart, here are the relevant coordinates: A=2337.75 (2/17); B= 2356.75 (2/20); and C= 2349.00. And yes, for night owls the

Thursday's humdrum price action got nowhere near the 2384.75 rally target we were using (although it's still valid). Bulls will have another chance on Friday to strut their stuff, but I'll suggest using the much less ambitious target shown, at 2357.00, to finish out the week. Because the futures pulled back precisely from the pattern's 2346.88 midpoint pivot, we should expect them to do likewise if they get to 2357.00. As always, Hidden Pivot levels x, p and p2 can be used to set up trades.  A run-up to 2357.00 would become an odds-on bet if p is decisively exceeded to the upside, especially early in the session.  Alternatively, if the futures shock by going lower, look for a tradable bounce from at 2334.25, or 2332.50 if any lower. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 11:22 a.m. EST): The futures missed my target by a single tick -- but don't worry, I'm not losing my touch. It happened before I could send out to you Sunday evening the new target required by Friday's gratuitous dip, which exceeded the previous day's low by a single tick.  That lowered the target to 2356.75 -- precisely equal to this morning's high. (See inset, a new chart that was prepared last night. I was unable to publish it because my WordPress publishing tool was temporarily indisposed).

Although the target of this gas-bag's ascent on Wednesday turned out to have been predictable to-the-tick (see inset), trading the rally was another matter. Using the Hidden Pivot Method, the only entry set-up that could be fairly described as a no-brainer occurred at 2340.75, off the very-well-camouflaged A-B impulse leg shown. Otherwise, only brash certitude that the E-Minis were in damn-the-torpedoes mode could have gotten you aboard without stress. Pullbacks were relatively fleeting, and the rally itself was impressive in the way that a mountain goat scampering up a cliff is impressive.  Assuming the heedless, wafting trend continues --as why should you not? -- expect the futures to reach the 2384.75 target we've been using by no later than Friday. A tradable pullback precisely from that number, or alternatively from 2387.50, looks extremely likely to me.

Buyers exceeded my 2333.75 minimum upside objective by a decisive four points on Tuesday, meaning it's time to raise our sights.  We need only slide down to a new point 'A' -- in this case, a 2177.00 low recorded on December 5 (see inset) -- to produce a fresh target at 2384.75 that was noted here earlier.  That would equate to a Dow rally of about 450 points -- no big deal these days, especially if it occurs over the course of a week or so. This target should work, and very precisely. This means that: 1) I am confident it will be achieved; and 2) there is likely to be a tradable pullback from it, give or take no more than a point or two. There is a possibility that the actual high will occur at 2387.50, since there's a slightly lower, alternative point 'A' available on the chart.  This is a small matter, however, since either target will provide a basis for trading with a bullish bias at least until the lower number is reached. In the meantime, we may decide to use a pullback to p or p2 to set up a mechanical entry, so stay tuned to the chat room if you're keen to trade this vehicle.