E-Mini S&P

The modest, somewhat gnarly rally pattern shown looks sufficiently compelling to use for trading and targeting now, even if it lacks corroboration via precise price action at the 2298.00 midpoint Hidden Pivot. Since it provided a 'winning' mechanical trade on last week's pullback to the green line, I'd suggest using the red one now for a belated entry attempt. A bid there, at 2298.00, would take a 2286.00 stop-loss predicated on a 2333.75 target, but you could cut the implied $600 entry risk down to perhaps $50-$75 per contract by using a 'camouflage' entry trigger instead. This would entail jumping on a very minor, uptrending ABC pattern if and when the futures pull back to 2298.00. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 10:24 a.m. EST): With no pullback whatsoever, manic buyers have come flying out of the gate this morning, hellbent on 2333.75. I cannot imagine a decisive move past so clear and compelling a Hidden Pivot resistance on the first try. However, if bulls should shock by effortlessly demolishing it, they'll be shooting for 2387.50. That number is tied to a midpoint pivot at 2324.88, so be alert to the possibility of a stall there.

Since November, I've been at pains to reconcile my extremely bullish technical forecast with a gut feeling that the U.S. economy and the stock market are hurtling toward disaster. The housing cycle has peaked, a farm bust looms, big investors are starting to exit the bubble they created in commercial real estate, auto manufacturers will be going up against a record year, and bullish investor sentiment is at a generational extreme. Despite all of this, I've learned to trust my charts above all. And that's why I've stuck for months with a forecast calling for a 1200-point rally on top of the nearly 1000-point rally that occurred in the days after the election. By no stretch am I able to imagine what could be the cause of such a powerful move. Although I have little doubt that the deregulated environment Trump has promised us will significantly benefit business, the stock market would seem to have discounted the most bullish outcome any investor could hope for. Even under the best of circumstances, with Democrats and Republicans miraculously working together to implement Trump's economic policies as quickly as possible, it could still take a year or longer for those policies to have a significant and lasting effect. Despite all of this, my forecast that the Dow will exceed 21,000 is slowly coming true without the benefit of any spectacular rallies. The move has been rather unspectacular, actually, having occurred in the form of tedious stretches lasting for weeks, punctuated by intervals lasting for a week or two where the Dow racks up modest gains of perhaps 100 to 150 points per day. We're in one of those intervals now, and it feels almost as though nothing could cause the trend to reverse, at least not for more than a day or two.

Monday's tedious price action generated a very marginal new high that was not significant enough to alter the current rally target at 2302.25. The 'mechanical' bid I'd advised  did not trigger because there wasn't enough weakness Sunday night to bring the futures down to the 2282.25 midpoint pivot where our bid lay. For now, I'll recommend a mechanical bid once again, but at the green line (i.e., x=2272.25), stop 2262.25. The entry risk on the trade is a theoretical $500 per contract, but there are two ways you can cut that down to size: 1) look for a 'camouflage' entry opportunity on the 3-minute chart if and when 2272.25 is touched; or, 2) use a 'counterintuitive' set-up if the retracement continues down to within a few ticks of (prospective) point A=2270.50. This is shown hypothetically in the chart. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:36 p.m. EST): Zzzzzzzzzzz. No change in the above, including the 'counterintuitive' (i.e., 'CI') trade advisory. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 10:06 p.m.): This snoozefest has become too boring to watch, and so I won't. The picture remains bullish, although we should be alert to a possible swoon, presumably for no good reason. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 7:56 p.m.): The 2310.00 target shown (see inset) is now my minimum upside projection and the number for bulls to beat, although it's somewhat puzzling that they couldn't accomplish this modest feat in the throes of Thursday's short squeeze rally.

Although I have Hidden Pivot targets well above these levels, we'll stick with little stuff for now, since the uptrend has been so herky-jerky. Most immediately, that will train our focus on the 2302.25 target shown. I like it because of the way the rally has kow-towed to both the midpoint pivot (p) and the secondary pivot (p2). You can use a mechanical bid at the green line (2272.25), stop 2262.00, but trying it at p=2282.25 might be cutting it too close, since the required stop-loss would be at 2276.00. Even so, and as always, you could use the mechanical signal that would be generated by a pullback to p to set up a 'camouflage' entry thereupon. Finally, night owls have the go-ahead to place a mechanical bid at 2282.25 Sunday evening if it looks like the futures are being coaxed down to that level by the usual sleazeballs. The 2276.00 stop-loss noted above would sill apply.

So much for my prediction that Wall Street would be moodless when the markets opened on Monday. Sellers were in a mood, that's for sure. The Dow was down as much as 222 points in the early going, for who-knows-what reason. This would have been a breath of fresh air for bears who have waited patiently  for signs of sanity in the markets. Traders have been more than a little gung-ho on the Trump re-flation trade, having pushed the Dow and the S&Ps 13% higher since election night. But there are limits to what one man, even Trump, can do to improve America's a moribund economy over the short- to intermediate-term, and that's why the buying binge was due for a rest. From a technical standpoint, however, the weakness will remain insignificant until such time as the futures fall beneath the 2248.50 low labeled in the chart (see inset).  That would generate a bearish impulse leg with the potential for a follow-through that would find little support for a hundred points. We'll see what develops in the days ahead, but it looks like bears will have the wind at their backs for a rare change over the next few days. _____ UPDATE (Jan 31, 8:32 p.m. EST):  A vicious short squeeze toward the end of the day recouped the moderate losses that had occurred earlier in the session, generating a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart and preventing an almost unheard-of three straight losing days. The bounce will become more credible if it exceeds the 2286.13 midpoint resistance shown. If the move through that number is decisive, it would put into play the 2310.00 target shown. _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 10:25 p.m.): Today's rally was too feeble to expect stocks to make much headway on Friday. Buyers will need

The futures have opened bullishly Sunday night on the kind of manipulated weakness that is intended to probe for a bottom. At what price will sellers be exhausted so that the usual cabal of rascals and thieves can run run stocks back up bears' ol' wazoo? With the E-Minis currently down nearly eight points, it would appear that the discovery process is still in progress. However, if it stokes fears and attracts more sellers as the night progresses, look for the weakness to hit 2276.25, a Hidden Pivot support shown in the inset.  This pattern can also be used by night owls to initiate shorts 'mechanically'. The trade is recommended only to those who are familiar with the tactic, but I'd encourage Pivoteers to share their trading insights in the chat room overnight. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 9:38 a.m.): I put out a 2277.00 target (see new chart) just seconds before the futures plunged to it. Check chat room for trading notes.

I had proffered a 2324.00 Hidden Pivot here yesterday as a swing-for-the-fence number, but during this morning's weekly tutorial session -- attended by a record 30 webinar grads! -- we were able to identify a new and even more ambitious target at 2403.30. Judging from the way buyers ripped through the red line (see inset), a midpoint 'hidden' resistance at 2213.15, I'd estimate that the 2403.30 target has about a 70% chance of being achieved. If so, the move would equate to a 1000-point rally in the Dow Industrials, to around 21,049. This scenario seems implausible with a housing bust shaping up in the background. Existing home sales fell 2.8% in December after rising for three consecutive months. The moderate strength in Q4 2016 is attributable to buyers' eagerness to beat a further rise in mortgage rates, which have already climbed by 70 basis points from their 2016 lows.  It seems all but certain at this point that 2017 home sales will fall short of last year's mark -- perhaps far short. As much could be said about auto sales, which will be coming up against 2016's record 18.4 million vehicles. Under the circumstances, we might infer that the stock market is out of its ever-loving mind to be trading at these levels. Even so, although I trust my judgment about the shakiness of the U.S. economy, I trust my technical forecast even more. If that makes me the most bullish permabear in the guru world right now, I'm quite comfortable being out on that limb. ______ UPDATE Jan 26, 7:14 p.m. EST): Today's nervous vibrations offered little to speculate on, so I won't. There's a cluster of Hidden Pivot resistance targets 16 points above, near 1308, so we'll use that number as a minimum upside projection for now. If

The futures broke out to new record highs after a constipated, seven-week dirge, tracing out a steep trajectory that leaves the 2286.00 target shown -- click here -- in no doubt. This means a 2324.00 target first broached here a while back is our swing-for-the-fences number for any long positions still held, or to be acquired. This target and the pattern which has produced it are shown in the inset. Day- and swing-traders can short 2286.00 with a stop-loss as tight as 2287.25, but I'm recommending the trade only to those of you who have been long for the ride north. Looking at the bigger picture, the precise hit at p on January 6 (see inset) has not only confirmed the pattern, it also implies that there will be a pullback precisely from 2324.00 if it is reached. The final gasp of the bull market? We can only guess, but it looks almost certain to produce a tradable top. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 2:54 p.m. EST): A 2294.50 target that I posted in the chat room three hours ago has so far contained today's rally within a single tick. If and when buyers push decisively past it, we'll use the 2324.00 target of the larger pattern flagged above. Also, and FWIW, during this morning's tutorial session we identified the 2403.30 target of an even larger pattern. It is both clear and compelling and would equate to a 1000-point rally in the Dow.

I hesitate to say that some days are simply untradable, since we can always zoom down to the one-minute bar chart to find micro abc trends that will get us aboard. But the five truncated swings that defined Tuesday's opportunities, such as they were, could have driven even the most patient trader batty.  A bigger picture suggests that stocks are churning and that they are likely to head lower unless some piece of ostensibly bullish news comes to the rescue. I wouldn't count on it, though, for reasons given here yesterday. If you are driven by desperation or boredom to trade this vehicle in any event, I'd suggest using the pattern shown. Ordinarily, I would be confident that its 2286.00 target will be achieved. That would in theory make the futures a mechanical buy at the green line, stop 2248.25. Given the leaden tedium of the last five weeks, however, I'd be surprised if a rally gets past p2=2276.75.  Should we then consider getting short instead? Perhaps it's time. But if you had done so a month ago, especially using put options, you'd feel by now like you had been through a meat grinder. ________ UPDATE (Jan 18, 9:58 p.m.): Zzzzzzz. Even so, check out the recording of today's tutorial session if you remain to be convinced it's possible to make money trading this little monster even on the dullest of days. _______ UPDATE (Jan 19, 10:12 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Jan 20): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. _________ UPDATE (Jan 23, 8:37 p.m.): A watched pot never boils, as the saying goes. Perhaps we can get this savagely boring excuse for a trading vehicle to do something by removing it from the front page. There, I've done it!