ESH12

October's 220-point impulsive rally has been driving this vehicle ever since, presumably toward a 1362.25 target that looks no less compelling after a day of weakness such as we saw yesterday. Still, because we wouldn't want to miss out on the Short of the Year just because the E-Mini S&P didn't quite reach our target, we'll keep a close eye on all abc retracements, especially near their 'p' midpoints.  The nearest lies at 1311.25 and can be seen in the accompanying chart. If the downtrend overshoots it, that would be a mildly cautionary sign for bulls.

Use the 1362.25 target shown as an incentive for getting long. The gap through the 1252.25 midpoint strongly implies the target will be reached, although camouflage will be most difficult to come by with the rally so ridiculously overextended. The chart shows how two subtle details shorten the odds of the target being achieved.

In volume-free night trading, DaBoyz have sleazed the futures back up to within a couple of points of Monday's high, demonstrating their (probably sound) belief that they still have bulls by the balls.  Where to next? Scrunch the hourly chart (see inset) a bit and, paradoxically,  this will force you to squint a good ABCD rally pattern into sharper obviousness.  This one projects to 1333.25, giving camouflageurs a theoretical 18 points to make hay. Camo cover will be hard to come by, but my suggestion would be to look for a small but perfect ABC pattern amidst the panic and confusion that is certain to attend a breakout above the 1318.25 peak.

A 1316.75 rally target we'd  been using since, practically, the Mesozoic era got hit yesterday as the futures worked their way up to a slightly higher top at 1318.25. The subsequent selloff was shortable though not easily, even using camouflage. If you tried it, the first place you could have initiated a trade that met all of our requirements was at 1308.25 at around 12:03 p.m. (3-minute chart, a=1313.25, b=1308.00 and c=1309.75.) The joyride would have been short-lived but profitable. Now, night owls can look forward to moderate downside predicated on a 1301.00 Hidden Pivot target (see inset) that a recent webinar grad mentioned in the chat room. That's not enough to shoot for, and, come to think of it, you might even get better odds trying to get long on the '3' with a micro stop-loss. (Just don't expect it to take you very far.)

Late Sunday night, the (very) minor trend was bearish, although it would take but a few ticks of upside to change that by creating 'dueling' impulse legs on the lesser charts.  An appropriate response is to ignore this vehicle for the time being, saving our attention and energy for better opportunities.

Although there are somewhat higher targets yet to be achieved, yesterday's top came within 1.00 point of the target shown and therefore offers a possible opportunity for shorting.  We haven't done much of this since the Mother of All Bear Rallies began in March 2009,  but it's probably time to practice getting short in case 2012 fails to live up to the ebullient expectations Wall Street's shills.   When you've had a look at the chart, check out the one-minute bars if you're a night owl looking for action.  As of around 9:45 p.m., good opportunities were non-existent, but your patience could yet yield a winner.

The fleeting lunge to a so-far high tonight at 1307.50 smacks of desperation and underhandedness, although a toothsome rally target at 1316.75 remains valid nonetheless. Digestion pains should lower this trading vehicle overnight, but it would still be a buy on any upwardly impulsive ABC pattern you can find on the lesser (i.e., 15-minute or lower) charts. Camouflageurs will need to be especially careful, however, since the rally could follow the creation of a bearish impulse leg similar to the one shown in the chart.

The futures were slithering higher Monday night on zero volume, doing what they lacked the guts to do during daylight hours on Friday. Specifically, they've inched above a significant external peak on the hourly chart -- in this case, Friday's high. Assuming that there are at least a few bears ready and eager to hit the panic button, we should see the 1316.75 rally target (see inset) given here earlier achieved before the day is over.  Alternatively, it would take a print down at 1269.25 today to break the bullish fever.

One step forward, two steps back.  At this rate, 2012 could come and go before the futures reach some of our more ambitious targets.  A less ambitious one at 1316.75 is where we should set our sights for now, and it would become an odds-on shot if and when the futures settle above a lesser target at 1301.75 broached here yesterday. The higher number's provenance is shown in the chart. Night owls should look for 'camouflage' opportunities on the 15-minute chart or less -- specifically via an external peak at 1292.75 that was within a hair of being exceeded.