ESH12

Come tomorrow, the 1353.00 pivot will have held for a week, hinting that the short-covering that has been driving stocks from one plateau to the next is not of the rampaging variety; rather, it is of the quietly psychotic variety, premeditating each new leap on the basis of whatever the latest, fabricated GDP/payroll numbers and "good" news from Europe will allow. Absent any truly horrifying geopolitical news -- and I'm not sure that even that would restrain buyers -- we should expect the futures to break out shortly and head for the 1362.50 Hidden Pivot noted here earlier.  Traders can test the water near that price with a tightly managed short, but camouflage is advised because of the rally pattern's less-than-stellar pedigree.  Want to learn how to nail price reversals like a pro?  You can learn to do it in as little as six weeks. Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar and receive a $50 discount.

The 1353.00 target precisely contained the most recent short squeeze, but if it gives way today or tomorrow, that would suggest that there is plenty of buying power remaining to be spent.  The next logical stop would be a Hidden Pivot at 1362.50 noted here earlier, and although it will offer a promising spot to try getting short, camouflage tactics should be used to initiate the trade, since the target comes from an imperfect pattern on the weekly chart.  In the meantime, as of late Sunday night there didn't appear to be any good handholds for getting long, even on the lesser charts, because of the gap-up opening that began the session.

A 1353.00 target that I'd drum-rolled here precisely contained the spike top of yesterday's opening-hour short-squeeze, but I have my doubts it will hold for long.  For one, when we looked at ES's intraday charts during yesterday's impromptu trading session (recorded and viewable below), we discovered that the retracement abc's were not reaching their midpoint pivots. And for two, bears will still have to face a firing squad when details of Greece's latest, phony bailout hit the tape after a vote this weekend.  Because the 1353.00 target was several weeks in coming, we might expect it to repel bulls for perhaps 3-4 days if stocks are bound still higher. But if ithe Hidden Pivot is obliterated just one day after first being touched, I would take that as a sign that DaBoyz are planning to move this market significantly higher. Although I provided guidance yesterday for subscribers who mentioned in that chat room that they'd gotten short, I did not establish an "official" tracking position because it would have been impossible to get short using 'camouflage' as I'd advised.  I'll suggest nothing further for today, but if the futures blow past 1353.00, the next Hidden Pivot with potential stopping power lies at 1362.50.  This number comes off the daily chart, and although the A-B impulse leg is less than stellar, the target itself should be considered good enough for government work. _______ UPDATE (2:01 p.m.):  That 1353.00 target is holding up better than I'd expected, what with the news that all has not been made to appear hunky-dory in Europe.  Hard to tell why the agreement on Greece is stalled, but it still seems like a bad bet that They are going to let the country go down in flames.  It is not Greece They care about, of course, but

I've alluded to a key target in today's commentary, and although merely talking about it has made it one of those high-profile numbers that are probably jinxed from the start, the Hidden Pivot itself is real enough and should provide sufficient stopping power to allow us to get short without risking too much. Putting aside the promotional hubris of today's commentary, which the public can access, subscribers should be aware that if the futures reach the 1353.00 target, they'll be in new recovery territory, trading above April's important 1344.50 peak. That implies that they will have created a fresh bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, an eventuality that will shorten the odds of our hitting a four-bagger on a bear trade. Still, our goal will be to get aboard without stress, and to simply go with the trade as far as it will take us.  My hunch is that the 1353.00 pivot will be hit overnight Tuesday or Wednesday morning, so I'm depending on the legion of experienced camouflageurs who frequent the chat room to guide rookies if things pan out as we might wish them to. _____ UPDATE (February 9, 11:22 a.m. EST): The futures spiked to 1352.75 about 50 minutes before the opening bell.  Some subscribers evidently got short, and said so in the chat room. However, strictly speaking, it was not possible to do so via camouflage until about 90 minutes later, so I won't record the trade officially.  Unofficially, though, and for your further guidance, with the futures currently trading around 1346.00, I'd suggest covering three-quarters of the original position for a profit, tying the remaining 25% of it to a stop-loss at 1349.75.  This is not a trade on which we should be swinging for the fences, since the markets are waiting opportunistically for

Early Tuesday morning, the futures were receding from a high-water mark just above the previous  day's peak. This has generated a fresh, bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts, along with the prospect of a C-D follow-through to as high as 1344.25. The target is predicated on a so-far 'C' low at 1338.25 holding, and the implied camouflage opportunity looks sufficiently compelling to at least reach the 1341.25 midpoint pivot. The trade would be good for chasing boredom but perhaps little more, since there doesn't appear to be sufficient "news" to drive a short-squeeze in the wee hours. _____ UPDATE (3:55 p.m EST):  I'm more and more liking....loving a 1353.00 target that has come into focus as the futures have ratcheted higher on the hourly chart. Here are the coordinates:  A=1272.75 on January 13; B= 1329.75 on January 26; and C= 1296.00 on January 30. We'll want to short the bejeezus out of the target when it's reached, albeit as cautiously as our "camouflage" bag of tricks will allow.  If you know nothing of camouflage but would like to try shorting there anyway, do so with a stop-loss no narrower than 1354.25.

Friday's buying spree was robustly impulsive on the daily chart, surpassing no fewer than one internal and two external peaks.  This all but guarantees that the S&Ps will eventually push above the highs of last spring and early summer. Notice that the rally did not take out the topmost of them at 1344.50. This could set up a possible 'camo' buying opportunity, since the action so far is likely to be read by most traders as a double top with that high.  We don't care about the fact that there was no breakout -- only about the creation of an impulse leg that, on a B-C pullback from Friday's high, could subsequently trip an 'X' entry signal. I've sketched this out hypothetically for the benefit of camouflageurs intent on finding a way in on a chart of smaller degree.

There was no E-Mini tout yesterday -- not that any of you should have missed it on a day when the biggest price swing was a paltry 9 points. This frustrating price action should be presumed a prelude to a shot at the 1353.00 target shown.  This is compelling midpoint action, and although there are no guarantees that the futures will surge past the 'p' pivot, we'll know exactly where they're going if and when this occurs.  Incidentally, the chart was marked up during a private session held yesterday for one of the three Hidden Pivot scholarship winners. We were looking for a trade at the time but found the pickings slim.  Each remedial sessions will be recorded, and webmaster Mike should have the first three ready for your perusal by today.  All who are signed up for the regular, weekly tutorial sessions are eligible to view them.  Click here for information on how you can join us.

Bears have the edge right now in a duel of impulse legs that project, respectively, to either 1283.75 (p=1300.50) if lower; or to 1323.75 (p=1313.00) if higher. A rally exceeding 1313.00 overnight would give bulls a fighting chance, but regardless, he best spot for night owls to attempt bottom-fishing would be at the 1303.25 midpoint support of the pattern shown. A stop-loss as tight as two ticks (!) could be used for this gambit. Want to learn how to find these entry spots yourself?  Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar.

The unexciting rally off this morning's low looks bound for an unexciting target at 1314.25, a Hidden Pivot.  It's not bullishly tradable, at least not easily, but bored night owls could consider shorting a downtrending abc from that number if a suitable pattern turns up on the one-minute chart.  The bigger picture remains bullish, but the first opportunity I could see to trade it would require a B-C pullback from between the two labeled peaks.  Moreover, the approach would need to be choppy in order to mask any perceptions of strength that will have accrued up to that point.