ESH12

The 1396.25 rally target in the chart is somewhat more bullish than the 13085 target I've drum-rolled for the Dow (once again in today's commentary), but it looks too clean and compelling to ignore -- especially with yesterday's touchy-feelly return to the exact p midpoint of the rally pattern. A camouflage boarding pass will be hard to come by in a bull move so advanced, but Pivoteers should note that there is at least potential 'camo' cover in the two-tick gap between external peaks at 1373.25 (60-minute chart, 2/28 at 8 a.m. EST) and 1373.75.  A stall at the higher number could yield the B-C pullback we'd need to jump on at X for the final thrust to 1396.25.

Yesterday's rally began at the Hidden Pivot midpoint of a minor correction pattern, implying that the rally that has ensued is likely to pick up steam. Strong bull trends tend to produce downward retracements that do not reach their 'D' targets, and that is indeed what has occurred.  Night owls should look for 'camouflage' opportunities on the one-minute chart, where I've labeled a couple of possibilities (see inset).

The futures took a running start at last week's highs on Friday but couldn't break through. We should expect it this week, though, pending some news item or economic statistic sufficient to touch off a short-squeeze.  A 1385.25 rally target will remain in effect in the meantime, although the three-tick overshoot of its 1367.75 midpoint sibling was not enough for us to infer that it's a done deal. Shortly before 10 p.m. EST, there were no promising handholds for night owls looking for a trade, even on the two-minute chart. However, adroit camouflageurs might want to try their chops at 1359.00, the retracement target of the pattern shown. ______ UPDATE (9:41 a.m. EST): The futures have fallen moderately to a so-far low of 1353.25 so far this morning. The weakness might be said to have been foretold by our inability to find a way to get long via  'camouflage'.  A new downside target lies at 1348.25 (60m, A=1365.00, B=1355.25, C=1358.00 and p=1353.00, the exact low so far.  You can bottom-fish at 1348.25 with a 3-tick stop-loss. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:24 A.M. EST): Cancel the trade, since the bounce from the exact midpoint of the pattern has exceeded its point 'C'.  FYI,  even on the one-minute chart, following the turn from 1353.00, I could find no way in via camouflage.

DaBoyz were back to their old, sleazy selves Thursday evening, mercilessly short-squeezing the futures on near-zero volume and a feel-good headline concerning the big story of the day -- National Enquirer's photos of Whitney Houston lying in state, as it were.  As we went to press, this phony-but-all-too-real rally has gotten within three ticks of the 1367.75 midpoint resistance shown in the chart. As always, we should infer that once this Hidden Pivot has been decisively breached, that will signal further progress to its 'D' sibling -- in this case, 1385.25.  On the chart, I've identified a series of lesser external peaks, a B-C pullback from above any of which could yield a camouflaged opportunity to get long. Night owls looking for action should pay close heed, since any trade is likely to trigger in the off-hours. Would you like to learn how we use the ‘camouflage’ trading technique to significantly reduce entry risk? Click here for details.

Kinda scary when DaBoyz can only extort a measly ten-minute rally from the latest resurrection of Greece.  That's how long the short-covering frenzy lasted on Monday night when markets opened in holiday-eve trading.  The choppy selloff since has produced a forest of corrective ABC patterns, but the one I'll suggest using for purposes of predicting where it might end is shown in the inset. It sports a 'D' target at 1348.00, a hidden support so beautifully isolated that you can try bottom-fishing with a 1348.25 bid, stop 1347.50.  Camouflage is preferred, as usual, but this gambit is the first I've seen in a while that can be attempted the way we used to do it before 'camo' was invented. _______ UPDATE (3:07 p.m. EST): The futures dipped no lower than 1350.25 during off-hours trading, denying us a boarding opportunity if a straight bid was used. However, if you'd used camouflage to get in, a good opportunity arrived on the one-minute chart at around 9:14 a.m. EST, when a minor, uptrending ABC tripped an entry signal at 1353.50. Check it out if you are skeptical that even a novice Pivoteer could not have made money on this one.

Expect a little more backing and filling before this vehicle gets goosed to 1390.50, a Hidden Pivot target broached here earlier.  Why the delay? Apparently, DaBoyz got a little ahead of themselves when they opened index futures Monday night for holiday-shortened trading. Although they were able to gap this hoax higher on zero volume, it left some actual sellers to deal with yesterday after the excitement had died down over the latest, absolutely fabulous news from Europe. Night owls looking to chase boredom by getting long should seek camouflage opportunities on the three-minute chart. As of around 6:35 p.m. EST, there were two 'external' peaks that could prove helpful in this regard: 1362.75 and 1363.25.  

The market's evil masters are evidently intent on driving this vehicle to at least 1390.50, the 'D' target of the pattern shown. Barring the emergence of some truly catastrophic geopolitical event, the rally at least to the Hidden Pivot would appear to be all but certain, since abbreviated holiday trading has effortlessly (and volume-lessly, as always) gapped the futures through the target's 1362.35 midpoint resistance.  Alleged 'news' concerning Greece is invariably the catalyst for these fortnightly short squeezes, although even cynics might not have imagined that so much yardage could be squeezed from a crisis that is beyond remedy. Click here for details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar, where you can learn enough in just six weeks to kiss your guru goodbye forever.

Wednesday night's bullish tout anticipated the miserable stupidity of yesterday's rebound, which effectively transformed the previous day's equally stupid decline into a v-shaped swoon.  Where to next?  Probably higher, but does anyone really care? In any event, the rally created a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart -- one with a short k-A segment that in theory will require little corrective action to set up another big bull leg. I doubt this will happen today, and so even on a camouflage basis, I cannot enthusiastically recommend looking for a way to get on board -- especially on a Friday, when the pathological forces that drive the markets are likely to be at their strongest.

It was all downhill yesterday, DaBoyz having wrung as much fear and panic from bears as they could before the opening bell. I doubt that bears will have much to celebrate in the days ahead, however, since the selloff, ostensibly the worst of 2012, has actually been pretty feeble so far.  Notice how the futures had to be dragged lower, kicking and screaming, to breach even a single important low on the chart. And although a second at 1333.75 looks ready to give way, even if it does there will have been too much hesitation about it.  We should be ready to put our skepticism aside, however, if a downdraft overnight or Thursday morning pushes aside external lows #3 and #4 (see inset).  In any case, as we went to press there were no compelling correction targets where camouflageurs might look to bottom-fish.  If you're keen on finding one, though, I'll suggest doing so on the 20-minute chart or lower.