GDX

The 'mechanical' set-up I detailed here last night caught this morning's trampoline bounce two pennies off the low. The subsequent rally was a doozy, adding 7.4% to the value of GDX shares in just a few hours. Subscribers who bought call options as advised saw them at least double in value, and in one reported instance quintuple. It depended on which strike and expiration date you used, but the gains would have been impressive regardless. I posted my own bet in the chat room shortly before the trade filled: bid 0.26 for 6th Sep 29 calls. I subsequently closed out 25% of the position when the options doubled in price, then offered 6th Sep 31 calls short for 0.27 to create a riskless $2 vertical spread. If I am filled on the order, I'll have a chance to make $200 per spread with no loss possible. I am not establishing a tracking position because all who took advantage of this opportunity are solidly in-the-black and presumably capable of managing your own positions. I will, however, continue to post any adjustments I make to my own position. _______ UPDATE (Aug 2, 11:06 a.m. ET): My order to short GDX 6th Sep 31 calls @ 0.26 has filled, making me long the Sep 29/31 vertical call spread at a cost of zero. If GDX rallies a mere 10.7% over the next month, I stand to make as much as $200/spread (which I have done in size). No loss is possible. Since each spread makes me long the equivalent of 20 shares, I may scalp against it. It is a positive-gamma spread, or backspread, meaning I will get somewhat longer if GDX rises. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:21 p.m.): I plan to add 6th Sep 30 calls to my long position if GDX

Buyers decisively exceeded a 25.58 target that has been seven months in coming, implying GDX will move significantly higher once it has had time to catch its breath. I  expect the correction to take 2-3 weeks, but any less would imply bulls are revved up and ready to shoot for a much more ambitious number, a 36.67 Hidden Pivot that looks compelling on the monthly chart (inset). Use its corresponding midpoint resistance at 26.98 as a minimum rally target for the near term (i.e., 4-7 days), and consider initiating a tightly stopped short if and when GDX hits 26.98. _______ UPDATE (Jul 10, 9:33 p.m.): GDX seems to have corrected June's big blast more quickly than I had expected. The 26.98 pivot is still my minimum upside target for the moment, and it could stop the rally temporarily, but I am no longer recommending that you try to intercept by shorting there. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 9:35 p.m.): Buyers bulldozed p=26.54 of a clear ABC pattern, all but guaranteeing the rally will continue to at least D=28.54 over the very near term. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:47 p.m.):  GDX has stalled since topping a week ago at 28.31, seven cents below my target. We'll wait for the latest Fed "news" to happen before we make ready to buy calls. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:14 p.m.): If it continues just a little farther, this plunge would trigger a mechanical buy at 26.02, stop 24.52. As noted in the chat room, I'm bidding for out-of-the-money calls expiring Sep 6, predicated on the green line being reached.

Bullion’s powerful rally this week has kicked this popular mining-stock vehicle into high gear. I haven’t tracked it in quite a while but aim to do so now, provided it remains feisty and interesting. In that regard, GDX looks like it’s about to ratchet up the interest-level, although not in a way we might have preferred. Notice that Thursday’s energetic short-squeeze brought the ETF within inches of a target at 25.58. This Hidden Pivot resistance can be used as a minimum upside objective for now, but don’t expect GDX to pop through it on the first try. More likely is a pullback of sufficient magnitude that you should consider taking a partial profit or doing covered writes in the range 25.42 – 25.70 if you are long.  Please note that if buyers should blow past D=25.58 with ease, that would imply that the target of a bigger pattern is in play. In this case, it would be 36.67 (!), a Hidden Pivot whose provenance goes back to a low at 12.40 recorded early in 2016. The lower target corresponds to one at 1412 for Comex August Gold that I disseminated to subscribers several weeks ago._______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:52 p.m.): Buyers shredded the 25.58 pivot, leaving little doubt about the underlying strength and potential of this move. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 8:28 p.m.): I neglected to mention an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 26.98 that can serve as a minimum upside target for the near term (i.e., the next 3-5 days).  It is the C-D midpoint tied to the 36.67 target noted above. Here's a chart that shows it. _______ UPDATE (Jun 26, 9:42 p.m.): GDX tripped a theoretical sell signal at 25.47 that implies it will fall to at least 25.21, or possibly to 24.67, if it slips today.

The Gold Miners ETF is staggering its way toward the 22.57 target shown, but if we get lucky we could get aboard belatedly with a pullback to 22.57, the green line. That would trip a mechanical buy signal, but the 2.57 target will remain viable in any event, so long as GDX does not drop below the pattern's 19.90 point 'C' low. As always, an easy move past D=22.57 would portend still higher prices (which is what we should expect here). Be prepared for the by-now-obligatory pullback from p2 (21.90), but the impediment should be short-lived. Looking at a bigger picture, a 23.31 print would turn the daily chart robustly impulsive, and a move touching 24.87 would send the bear into hibernation.

Buyers stalled almost precisely at the 25.71 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the rally pattern shown, but they'll need to push past it by no later than Tuesday to affirm that they are ready for a further push to the 26.02 target and beyond.  Merely achieving the target would be the most bullish event seen on this vehicle's chart in months, since it would exceed early November's 25.93 peak by a decisive nine cents. That would generate an even more powerful impulse leg than the one created last week with the rally a penny above the election night high at 25.70.  I would encourage subscribers to jump in with a 'mechanical' bid at the red line, provided the pullback to it once it has been decisively exceeded meets our criteria. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 9:56 p.m. EST): That's one strike on bulls. Now, if they can't prevent GDX from falling beneath the 24.86 midpoint support that contained today's selling, look for a further fall to at least 24.36 before the good guys can attempt to get traction. _______ UPDATE (Feb 14, 7:01 p.m.): Today's weakness reversed at the secondary pivot (24.61), but the 24.36 target will remain valid until such time as 25.36 is exceeded to the upside. _______UPDATE (Feb 15, 8:04 p.m.): If GDX turns around without having fallen to 24.36, use the pattern shown to guide you. It flashed a 'counterintuitive' buy signal on Wednesday when GDX hit the green line, and odds of a completion to 25.92 would shorten considerably on a stab through 25.21. ________ UPDATE (Feb 16, 8:32 p.m.): Bulls did not so much stab the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 25.21 as play toe-sies with it all day long. Let's see if they're capable of getting serious on Friday with a decisive push higher.

Bulls tripped a theoretical buy signal last week at 23.43 that is tied to a target at 37.97. If GDX eventually gets there, that would represent a 64% gain from these levels. This is by no means a likelihood at the moment, only a technical observation rooted in mechanical evidence. More immediately, a lesser rally target at 24.46 (see inset) would need to be reached, and then surpassed, to suggest there is ample buying power below the surface to propel GDX into the $30s. The stock was a 'mechanical' buy last week on the pullback to the green line, a fact that I noted in the chat room at the time. If it doesn't oblige us by pulling back, it could still be bought 'mechanically' on a pullback to p, the red line. I would not recommend this, however, unless the retracement comes from 23.60 or higher. A stop-loss at 22.72 would be required. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 11:29 p.m.): GDX has pulled back sharply after having missed the 24.46 target by 21 cents. The target remains viable in theory, but a print beneath 22.55 today or tomorrow would damage the short-term-bullish case that still obtains. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 10:12 p.m.): Friday's low at 22.78 has left the bullish pattern noted above intact. Use a slightly altered, 24.42 target and this pattern to trade the move on the 60-minute chart: A=22.61 (1/19); B= 24.25.  A moderately enticing 'counterintuitive' trade was triggered Friday, but a strong opening on Monday would put it out of reach. ______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 8:58 p.m.): An early-morning rally died precisely at the 23.60 midpoint pivot of the pattern noted above. If and when GDX gets decisively past it, the 24.42 target will become an odds-on bet.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 2, 10:33 p.m.): After leaping

Subscribers are long 400 shares from 22.61, stop 22.01, based on a real-time guidance for a 'mechanical' entry that was posted to The Scoreboard at 11:21 a.m. GDX, an ETF proxy for the gold mining sector, is having trouble getting airborne, but if the buying should catch fire it has the potential to reach 24.58 (see inset) over the near term. For now, I'd suggest entering an order to sell half the position at p=23.30, the pattern's 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' resistance. The order should be held o-c-o with a 22.01 stop-loss on the whole position. You should also offer another 100 shares at 24.58 g-t-c. If the order fills, we'd be left with 25% of the original position -- or 100 shares, based on the original order. _______ UPDATE (Jan 11, 10:15 a.m.):  Gold's steepest dive since mid-December, presumably gratuitous, has stopped out the position this morning for a  $240 loss.

 A bull-trap reversal hit the green line, putting a 20.24 downside target theoretically in play.  Accordingly, we should look to trade the ETF with a bearish bias. That implies you could either look to get short now via camouflage, or wait until GDX trips a ‘mechanical’ short after the green line has been breached decisively for several bars. Thereafter, it is the rally back up to the green line that would get us short 'mechanically.' Alternatively, it would take a rally a to at least 27.26 to turn the daily chart back to bullishly impulsive.  Some of you may have noticed that GDX is also on a ‘counterintuitive’ buy signal triggered at 24.92 last week. We can use it later if there’s a strong pop above it today or tomorrow, since that would improve the odds of a rally to as high as 32.16. Otherwise, today’s bearish price action demands caution. _______ UPDATE (Oct 25, 9:13 p.m. ET): The bounce from Monday's low has given bulls a reprieve, but the stock will need to surpass a Hidden Pivot resistance at 25.87 (a=22.91 on 10/14, daily chart) to hint that the rally is more than just a correction. It will take a print at 27.26, however, to turn things around decisively._______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 10:40 p.m.): To keep the intraday charts looking bullish, GDX will need to close above p=24.47 (see inset, a new chart) without having gone lower than 23.43 -- and the sooner the better. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 9:20 p.m.): Bulls managed a close an inch above our 24.47 benchmark. With just a little more push, they will likely make it to 25.51, the closest Hidden Pivot resistance above. A decisive push past that price, particularly on first contact with it, would have further, bullish implications going forward.

GDX has been struggling for the last two weeks to reverse a steep slide begun on September 22 from 28.56. We should take encouragement from the fact that the struggle is taking place well above the 22.08 target we've used as a minimum downside projection. Moreover, buyers generated a promising bullish impulse leg Friday via a rally that exceeded several prior peaks, two of them 'external', on the hourly chart (see inset).  It should be noted that gold's corrections have shown a propensity to test the very limits of our patience and endurance, and this may be the case here. However, the ferocity of October's selloff should temper our enthusiasm for bottom-fishing in this vehicle, and impel us toward caution in doing the same with individual mining stocks, no matter how promising their operations. From a trading perspective, if last week's rally is going to prove to be more than a tease, we should look for a pop through p=23.67.  That number would change if the point 'c' low at 22.91 is taken out, but as you can see, there is not much more room to the downside for the abc uptrend to remain viable. _______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 6:48 p.m. ET): This morning's leap on the opening bar put a 24.43 target in play. If that Hidden Pivot offers little resistance, bulls should take encouragement. However, even then we'll need to see a further push exceeding 26.00 before we could infer that the rally might be getting legs. ________ UPDATE (Oct 23): Price action has been mildly encouraging.  GDX not only reached the 24.43 rally target, it now seems to be consolidating above it. In theory, the next leg up has the potential to tack on as much as 1.45 points, or about 5%, based on wherever the point