Gold turned leaden last week, although it managed to hold its own against the takedown artists. Buying interest in bullion was nil as the action shifted back to the lunatic stocks. Usually that begets a gratuitous $100 swoon in gold, but DaBoyz evidently couldn't round up the few sellers it would have taken to accomplish this. The result was another week's consolidation at an 1880.49 midpoint pivot associated with a rally target, previously given, at 2082.40 (see inset). Bulls were on the run at the close, however, so here's a downtrending ABC pattern you can use to judge whether the selling is likely to continue. It tripped an enticing 'mechanical' short on the bounce to the green line (1892.70), but I doubt the futures will fall as far as the 1850.20 target. If they do, you can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss, good till 10 a.m. ET Monday. _____ UPDATE (Jun 14, 10:18 a.m. ET): The trade recommended above worked nicely, producing a gain so far of up to $7600 for anyone who got long at 1850.s0 as advised. Here's the chart. A stop-loss at 1845.60 or lower would have held the position. Use a target of 1880.10 for what remains of your position. That is 'd' of this rabc set-up on the 60-minute chart: a=1871.80 on 6/10 at 9:00 a.m. ET. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:25 a.m.): The pullback to x=1854.3 generated a mechanical 'buy', but the trade would have been exited on the run-up to within an inch of p=1862.90. I have nothing more to suggest at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Jun 17, 1:13 a.m.): There was no reason for gold to sell off with stocks on the non-news from the Fed, but the fact that it did anyway suggests DaSleazeballs have more control over it, at
August Gold has closed above the red line (1880.40) on all but one day since exceeding it for the first time on May 19. This easy flirtation with a key midpoint resistance suggests that an eventual push to the 2082.40 target is unlikely to be labored. This is not withstanding last week's $45 dive, about which two things could be said: 1) it was not an $80 swoon, as many of them have been since last August's watershed high; and 2) in true bull-market fashion, the plunge has very nearly been recouped in just a day. The pattern shown should work well for 'mechanical' set-ups and profit-taking, but we shouldn't get our hopes too high that we'll be able to augment long positions with such fire-sale bargains on the way up.
We've focused on a 2083.90 rally target that remains a strong bet to be reached. More immediately, however, let's train our attention on the 1923.90 target shown, since it could conceivably yield a bull trade over the next day or so. Specifically, I'll recommend bidding 1894.20, stop 1884.20, if the futures have gone no higher than 1916.00. The implied entry risk is $4000 on four contracts, but you can interpolate using the micro-futures to cut that by as much as 90%. As always, an easy move past a Hidden Pivot resistance as clear as this one would be telegraphing a continuation of the rally. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 2:39 p.m. ET): The 1894.20 bid I'd suggested missed the intraday low by just three ticks. I have not established a tracking position, however, because the futures went a tad higher than I'd anticipated before swooning $25 to nearly kiss our stink bid. Several subscribers reported doing the trade nonetheless, and it is sufficiently profitable at the moment -- i.e., around $1000 per contract -- that you should have little difficulty managing the risk. A 1923.90 rally target still obtains. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 10:23 a.m.): Ha-ha. Just when I mention “no takedowns,” DaSleazeballs sock the futures with a $45 loss. The proximal cause of this fake selloff, abetted by evidently still-abundant, fearful clowns, was allegedly ‘bullish’ unemployment data. Stay the course! ______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:24 p.m.): Today's sucker-punch had gold reeling for barely an hour. Let's see if the menacing-looking close just off the lows has real teeth. Night owls up for a little excitement can try bottom-fishing at 18.59.20, stop 1858. 50. That's the midpoint HP support, on the 60-minute chart, of a= 1900.50 (7:00 a.m., 6/3). _______ UPDATE (Jun 4, 9:46 a.m.): A low of 1855.6o stopped out the trade before
June Gold has consistently been exceeding minor targets while showing increasing resistance to the $50 takedowns that have plagued bullion since last summer. This gives me increasing confidence that the 2083.90 target shown will be achieved. It was first broached here six weeks ago, a feature of a bullish 'reverse ABC' pattern that looks unlikely to fail us. That means not only that the levels can be used for 'mechanical' entries, but also that last week's penetration of p=1880.10 was undeniably bullish. Notice that the thrust also took out two 'external' peaks from January, adding further evidence that the bozos who have impeded gold in its role as an inflation hedge are finally starting to smarten up. This is good news for gold bugs, though not so much for lovers of bitcoin. ______ UPDATE (May 25, 10:51 p.m. ET): June Gold was wafting effortlessly higher late Tuesday, having pushed through round-number resistance at 1900 with little hesitation. The futures looked bound most immediately for the 1918.60 target shown in this chart, but an easy move past it would telegraph still more upside over the near term. _______ UPDATE (May 27, 5:58 p.m.): We'll use the pattern shown, with a 1944.90 target, for the time being. The futures would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal on a pullback to x=1882.70, but because initial risk would be more than $2000 with the required stop-loss at 1861.90, I'll recommend the trade only to those who are able to cut it down to size with a 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (May 28, 11:06 p.m.): The trade worked perfectly off a textbook-perfect pattern that has produced a so-far gain of around $1700 per contract. The trampoline bounce followed an 1880.90 low just 80 cents beneath the suggested bid. In practice, the trade would have produced a quick and
Bulls spent the week fending off and frustrating sellers before lurching higher toward the 1885.40 target shown. It is a Hidden Pivot of lesser degree than the one at 1880.10 given here earlier, but the pattern is so shapely and promising that it justifies raising the target itself. The pattern can be used to manage the risk of a long position or to acquire one 'mechanically' on the way up. The bad guys seem to be losing their grip, and it is obvious they are having increasing difficulty pushing gold sharply lower no matter what the news or mood on Wall Street. The effect is subtle, but it is most certainly bullish. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:07 p.m.): The futures achieved our 1885.40 rally target and then some with a thrust to 1891.30. That's not much of an overshoot, but in the context of a target as clear and compelling as this one, we should infer that still higher prices impend. It is a welcome sign that the takedown artists appear to be in a coma after having been punched senseless during the last two weeks.
The 1880.10 rally target first flagged here a while back now looks very likely to be achieved, and sooner than I'd expected just a week ago. Back-to-back rallies on Thursday and Friday caught bulls and bears by surprise, although the former are likely to remain skeptical, given the many setbacks they've suffered over the last ten months. More interesting than the 1880.10 target is one at 2324.70 activated by the thrust slightly past the green line (1838.30) of a significantly larger pattern. We'll need to see how well buyers handle p=2000.50 of that pattern before we can determine the odds of a further run-up to 2324, but p itself looks no worse than an even bet to be reached. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 11:08 p.m.): Make that, achieved later rather than sooner, since gold has lapsed back into its wonted torment-those-who-love-it-most mode.
Gold has turned punk again, well shy of the 1880.10 midpoint pivot shown in the chart, but also of February 16's external peak at 1817.60. Exceeding this structural resistance might have offered encouragement; alas, the futures went no higher than 1798. Now, all that bulls have to hang onto is mid-April's successful stab at the green line, which triggered a highly theoretical buy signal. It also activated p=1880.10 as a minimum upside projection, but this goal looks distant, if not to say unattainable, in the context of the daily chart. Silver, as I keep remarking, looks better -- just not 'better enough' at the moment to drag gold higher through layers of resistance. Where are the robinhood and reddit kiddies when you need them? _______ UPDATE (May 7, 9:13 a.m. ET): With a couple of rare, back-to-back leaps, an energized gold has put my 1880.10 price objective within easy reach. It is a minimum target, but if buyers can impale it on first contact, that would shorten the odds of a further push to 2083.90, the 'D' target of a larger bullish pattern stretching back nearly a year. And if that Hidden Pivot resistance were to be smashed, we'd be talking -- theoretically -- as high as 2324.70, the 'D' of this pattern. Notice that a theoretical 'buy' signal predicated on that target was triggered at 1838.30,, ticks off the so-far top of today's surge.
Gold's rally turned sloppy last week after tripping a theoretical buy signal tied to a rally target at 2083.90. It wouldn't be the first time this vehicle has disappointed us just as it seemed to be warming up. Still, the pullback from the recent high has been feeble so far, suggesting bulls are simply biding their time while wild-eyed investors remain fixated on FAANG stocks, small-caps and other whimsical themes. The hotties look likely to continue to draw interest away from bullion, since my target for the DJIA, for one, implies higher prices over the near term. Gold can rally at the same time, to be sure, but don't get your hopes too high for a quick burst to 1880.10, a midpoint pivot shown in the chart that can serve as our minimum upside objective for now. ______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:22 p.m.): Looking like its nasty old self, gold took a gratuitous mid-morning plunge that has put the burden of proof back on bulls for the time being. We'll set the bar at 1796.40 so that we don't get suckered in. That's a tick above an 'external' peak recorded April 23 on the way down.
June Gold cleared a key hurdle on Friday by an inch, triggering a theoretical buy signal tied to a 2083.90 target. First things first, however, meaning we should set our sights no higher than p=1880.10 for the time being. This midpoint Hidden Pivot can serve as a minimum upside objective for a climb that would take about 2-3 weeks, assuming the bullishness evident in Silver is present. Even though the rally has yet to generate an impulse leg on the daily chart, this is the most bullish price action we've seen in gold since last summer. A longer-term chart allows for a projection of 2286, (A=681 in October, 2008), but it would take two weekly closes above 1976 to warrant getting excited about it. _______ UPDATE (Apr 19, 9:45 p.m. ET): Bulls got sandbagged in the early going, generating an impulsive decline that projects to as low as 1752.90 over the near-term. You can bottom-fish there with a 'reverse ABC' pattern using this chart's 'b'as your point 'A' for the reversal. _______ UPDATE (Apr 20, 6:41 p.m.): The correction never even got close to the secondary pivot at 1758.90, let alone the 'd' target $6 below it. This is bullish price action, and it projects most immediately to 1792.00. _______ UPDATE (Apr 21, 5:20 p.m.): June Gold closed above the green line (1778.10), putting a midpoint resistance at 1880.10 in play (see inset) as minimum upside objective for the near-to-intermediate -erm.
Although the current Silver tout enthuses about possible trading opportunities, Gold's chart is about as appealing as warm beer. The most bullish thing you could say about the May contract is that it has so far avoided falling to a 1614.60 target that had looked magnetic. Last week's feint slightly above the 'C' high of the bearish pattern that produced that target has negated it, but it would take a further push exceeding Feb 23's 'external' high at 1817.60 to put the bear into hibernation. The lesser charts will be tradeable in either direction nonetheless, and we can use this big-picture view not only to board this vehicle 'mechanically', but to fantasize about its 2083.90 target. For now, let's cross our fingers and see if the futures can get to x=1778.1. That would put p=1880.10 in play as a minimum upside objective. I don't usually render unsignaled targets in green, but without a little added 'color,' gold's chart is almost too dispiriting to contemplate.
