Gold

An upthrust today exceeding 1290.10 would put bulls squarely back in charge. At that point our minimum upside objective would be 1315.10, a Hidden Pivot taken from the hourly chart where A=1248.20 on April 10. Alternatively, if the futures fall for a second consecutive day, the first chance they'd have to reverse would be from 1267.90, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot. However, a decisive penetration of that support would indicate more downside to at least 1255.80. Traders could bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks, but I'll recommend this only to those of you who have caught a piece of the short on the way down. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 10:54 a.m. ET): The rally from just beneath p=1267.90 will remain suspect until such time as it exceeds 1280.00. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 11:27 p.m.): Despite the gingerly probing of the secondary pivot at 1261.80, June Gold still looks like it wants to go lower. The 1255.80 target remains viable, along with the recommendation to bottom-fish there if you've been short for at least part of the way down.

The June futures have pulled back $22 so far after topping to-the-exact-tick at 1297.40, a longstanding target that has been in play since January. The target is actually a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, and the precise stall there has confirmed not only the pattern but its 1464.90 'D' target.  Now, if buyers are able to push decisively past the pivot, especially within the next 7-10 days, that would bolster the case for a move to at least 1381.10, the 'secondary' pivot, while also putting D=1464.90 in play. We won't pretend to have a crystal ball, however, so let's hang back for the time being and see how the correction plays out. If it reverses to create an impulse leg on the hourly chart without having achieved a 'd' downside target, that would have very bullish implications for the near-to-intermediate term. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 7:50 p.m.): Gold is getting brutalized Sunday night on news that LePen failed to capture the French presidency on the first ballot. Bullion's downdraft may look like a big deal on the intraday charts, but it is not nearly sufficient to have any bearing on the analysis above.

June Gold ended the week consolidating for a likely push to a minor rally target at 1303.00. An equally compelling pattern of somewhat larger degree targets 1305.70, so you should be prepared for stall at one number or the other. As always, if a Hidden Pivot as clear as either of these two gives way easily, that would imply there's unspent buying power to reach still higher levels. Keep in mind as well that the 1464.90 target of a far larger pattern dating back to November 2015 will continue to color our trading bias a bullish shade of green.  It is tied to a 1297.50 major midpoint resistance that could also be an obstacle to any rally in the week ahead. Once the futures have pushed decisively above this number, however, it will eventually become useful for purposes of setting up a bullish, long-term 'mechanical' trade with entry risk very tightly controlled. _______ UPDATE (Apr 17, 8:01 p.m.): Today's rally stalled a dime from the 1297.50 resistance flagged above. It is by far the most significant of the three Hidden Pivots I've identified, but we'll have to mark time until the futures either push past it or fail to do so. Two consecutive closes above it would put the 1381.10 'secondary' pivot in play as a minimum upside objective.

With today's strong surge, June Gold demolished a 1279.80 Hidden Pivot resistance, putting in play the 1464.90 target of a pattern of far larger degree. The pattern seems ambitious, but it is technically justified by our rules, since it is the only pattern we've got to work with at this point. It implies that we should use the 1297.40 midpoint pivot as a minimum upside objective for the near term. As always, we'll be watching closely to see how the futures interact with that 'hidden' resistance the first time they encounter it. An easy move past it on the first try, particularly if it hits 1315 or so with no pullbacks, would make the 1464.90 target an odds-on bet as far as I'm concerned. It would also make the red line available to us either for placing a 'mechanical' bid or converting this type of entry trigger into a lower-risk camouflage entry. Stay tuned!

Friday's nasty reversal was disappointing, to say the least, especially since the rally peaked less than $3 shy of a 1275.80 Hidden Pivot target we'd been using for the last week to stay on the right side of a wishy-washy uptrend. However, if you back up to consider an even bigger picture -- one with a slightly higher target at 1279.80 -- you can see that Friday's selloff did no technical damage to a still-bullish chart. Moreover, the spike through the 1238.90 midpoint resistance on March 21 was so ferocious that there should be little doubt 1279.80 will be reached. What happens after that is more important, since an easy push past that number, especially within a day of when it is first touched, would be signaling more upside to come.  Alternatively, a reversal from the target that subsequently exceeds two prior lows on this chart would imply bulls are spent, probably for 2-3 weeks or more. _______ UPDATE (Apr 10, 7:56 p.m. ET): Today's gratuitous ups and downs left my outlook unchanged. _______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 11:34 p.m.): In after-hours trading, the June contract has exceeded the 1279.80 Hidden Pivot by $2 so far. That's not quite enough to imply bulls are ready to power significantly higher without a rest. Regardless, if they can close the futures above the pivot for two consecutive days, or trade more than 3.50 above it intraday, they will be in good position to steamroller sellers ahead of Good Friday.

News of a U.S. air strike on Syria has goosed June Gold to within easy distance of the 1275.80 Hidden Pivot we've been using as a minimum rally target for the last week. The target and the pattern that produced it are sufficiently clear that we should expect a stall precisely at 1275.80. However, if the futures get past it easily, especially if this occurs within hours of first contact, that would imply the trend is likely to continue. It would also be reason to regard any pullback from above the target as a buying opportunity. In the meantime, night owls can use p2=1267.20 (aka the secondary pivot) to set up a 'mechanical' bid, stop 1264.30. Do not attempt this trade unless you are familiar with the simple rules we use to determine whether a proper pullback to the pink line has occurred.

Gold earned the begrudging benefit of the doubt Friday, even though the intraday low exceeded a Hidden Pivot correction target, and although it also generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. When the dust settled, the futures had tripped a theoretical buy signal at the green line (1251.60), implying more upside to at least 1258.70, the midpoint pivot of the pattern. The move projects to as high as 1275.80 over the near term, but that target won't be in play until such time as buyers decisively exceed the midpoint resistance with evident ease.  Under the circumstances, I can recommend a 'mechanical' bid at the green line, but only if it is touched on Monday after the futures have hit or exceeded p=1258.70. This is shown hypothetically in the chart. ______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 9:16 p.m.): The June contract has been the obedient slave of the bullish pattern noted above, with a 1275.80 rally target. The intraday high on Monday occurred almost precisely at the 1258.70 midpoint pivot (see above) as we might have expected, but buyers will need to exceed this benchmark by at least 2.20 intraday, or close above it for two consecutive days, before 1275.80 would become an odds-on bet to be reached. A 'mechanical' bid at the green line, stop 1241.40 is warranted on Tuesday if the pullback to it meets our criteria, but I'm not yet ready to green-light a 'mechanical' entry at p=1258.70.  (Click here for a fresh chart.)  _______ UPDATE (Apr 4, 10:37 p.m.): A bull-trap opening set a selloff in motion that looks bound for at least 1252.30 (30-min, a= 1263.70 at 8:30 a.m.). If the target is easily exceeded it would generate a bearish signal for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 11:23 p.m.): Gold reversed a selloff on

Switching to the June contract, we see that gold on Thursday did what it has been doing so well for so long, with crushing consistency: disappointing bulls. This has been going on since July; and yet, the gold bugs remain faithful -- even worse, they seem hopeful.  The chart pattern shown (see inset) suggests they could find short-lived respite at the 1242.70 Hidden Pivot support, and even bottom-fish there with a five-tick stop-loss. But what would be the point? A somewhat less risky trade for those who only play the upside would be to initiate a 'counterintuitive' entry using the labeled low at 1243.70 as a point A. If you attempt this, however, I'd suggest shooting for a ride only to the still-undetermined midpoint pivot rather than to the 'D' target. If the trade fails, it will likely be the last opportunity gold has to turn around before testing support at 1200.00

Gold's performance this week has been underwhelming, to say the least, so today's chart, although bullish, sets a low bar. The April contract tripped a mechanical 'buy' signal today, but the initial risk of nearly $500 per contract makes it an unappealing bet, especially considering the tepid price action that had preceded the signal. Instead, I'll suggest we look to do our buying after the futures have popped above the 1256.20 midpoint resistance. That would exceed the labeled peak at 1255.90 as well, generating an encouraging impulse leg on the lesser charts.  Selling Wednesday evening has been lackluster so far, suggesting it won't take much of a push to get things rolling in the right direction.