GOOG

A good time to step aside and let Google fall -- to as low as 627.24 if the pattern shown (see inset) fails to retrace above 705.50. If not, its 666.37 midpoint support would logically become our minimum downside objective for the near term. Alternatively, the downdraft was so sharp that there are no good handholds for camouflageurs to leverage for buying purposes.  A jerry-rigged 'external' peak at 706.18 might serve, but this would be expert play for even the nimblest of traders.  _______ UPDATE (November 5, 12:24 a.m. EST):  I've updated the chart to show not only that Google has not exactly come roaring back from mid-October's devastating, one-day plunge, but that it would take an unpaused thrust exceeding the 706.70 'external' peak shown to hint of a resurgence by bulls.  Broadly speaking, this is not how stocks in bull markets are supposed to act.

Google's failure to correct all the way down to a Hidden Pivot target at 722 (see inset) is tentatively bullish and would be confirmed by a short upthrust exceeding 762.20, the higher of two external peaks shown in the chart.  That would create a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart -- one with enough power, presumably, to end the two-week presumptive consolidation that has followed October 5's all-time high at 778.  A low-risk 'camo' buying opportunity would beckon if a fleeting rally were to slightly exceed peak #2 and retrace in b-c fashion.

Google's gap-up opening last Thursday has turned into a bear trap that tightened with Friday's nasty selloff in the final hour.  It projects to 735.47, but a last-gasp feint up to the p midpoint, 746.98, should be viewed as a shorting opportunity if tightly stopped.  Assuming your options account is qualified for naked positions, I'd suggesting shorting two October 750 calls if the underlying stock rallies to within 12 cents of the 746.98 pivot. Stop yourself out, however, if GOOG goes above 746.21.  I estimate the calls will be selling for around 20.70.  _______ UPDATE (11:43 a.m. EDT):  The stock dove this morning at the bell without an uptick.  Because sellers overshot the 735.47 target, we'll move point 'A' up to October 5's 774.38 to yield a new minimum downside target at 722.41.

Unlike Apple, Google barely flinched last week as the broad averages came down. A 773.69 rally target remains in effect if and when the stock takes flight again. From a camouflage standpoint, the best potential buying opportunity I can find on the lesser charts would use a 'timed buy-stop' on a fleeting pullback from just above the 757.99 peak shown. _______ UPDATE (October 5, 1:29 p.m. EDT): The stock gapped on the opening to a so-far high this morning of 774.38, achieving our target with 69 cents to spare.  That could be it for a while, but longs who caught a piece of the $14 rally should be on the sidelines now.  FYI, using the 3-minute chart there was an easy-as-pie 'camouflage' short from 772.92. It came on the 9:03 a.m. bar from the pattern a=774.29 (10:39 a.m.), b=772.00 (10:52 a.m.) and c=773.50 (11:00 a.m.)  All three coordinates are single-bar, with an impulse leg that breached the required internal and external lows.

The price action driving Google higher has been so powerful and relentless that I checked the weekly chart to see whether there might be something bigger pushing the stock than Hidden Pivot patterns discernible on the daily and intraday charts. Sure enough, there's a cycle begun from 289.45 (using a one-off point 'A') that projects to 773.69, a tad above the 770.28 target of a lesser pattern noted here yesterday. What the foregoing implies is that not only will there be double stopping power just above $770, but that Google could be magnetically drawn to those number before it seriously corrects. The stock has been too wild for me to suggest a specific strategy in advance (and there is the chance that an important high was seen yesterday on a key reversal from 764.89). Even so, I am proffering these numbers nonetheless so that you can use them as aggressively as you dare.

Although we use Apple as our main bellwether, Google deserves attention as well because it's a 'market stock' that tends to accurately reflect the prevailing mood on Wall Street. Right now GOOG is stalled at a minor midpoint resistance at 681.50 (see inset), but if it closes above that Hidden Pivot for two consecutive days, look for a follow-through straightaway to the 703.75 'D' target of the pattern shown.  If the Dow were to follow suit, it would imply a 3% rally of about 400 points.  ______ UPDATE (September 10, 2:23 a.m. EDT): Buyers impaled our target on Friday, implying an easy move to the next, at 716.43.  As you can see for yourself in the refreshed chart I've provided, the target looks appealing as a short, and so I'll suggest doing so -- 200 shares, stop 716.75, good till canceled._______ UPDATE (September 19, 12:39 a.m. EDT):  DaBoyz used the staged weakness of a bear-trap opening to set up a $10 short-squeeze rally to 716.74 -- 31 cents from the target flagged above -- in the first 30 minutes of the session. After scuddling sideways for the next five hours, the stock took off again, leaving shorts on the ropes at the bell. Minimum predicted upside in the early going on Wednesday:  723.11.  Shorts should risk no more than 0.20 on trades initiated at that price. _______ UPDATE (6:26 p.m. EDT): Yesterday's short-squeeze rally blew past 723.48, implying more upside over the very near-term to at least 734.45.  As always, an easy move through that target, a Hidden Pivot, would imply that bulls have yet more firepower to deploy. _______ UPDATE (September 23, 11:41 p.m. EDT): Friday's rally hit 734.92, fulfilling our target.  That resistance is not exactly chopped liver, so if GOOG blows past it today, infer that the

GOOG appears bound at least $20 lower, to the 574.91 'D' target of the orthodox pattern shown. This stock has always been easy pickings on the 15-minute chart, so I'll suggest camouflageurs start looking there for the expected turn.  If you'd prefer to use a straight buy order, try a 574.97 bid, stop 574.84, good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (June 1):  The stock gapped down $10 on the opening, printing 571.79 to begin the day and negating the trade suggested above. (Side note: If you had had a straight bid in at the bell along with the stop, the orders might have been filled at the same price -- i.e., a scratch, less commissions.) With all of the small stuff used up, it's time to open our bearish imagination to the prospect of a fall to 435.90, the 'p' midpoint associated with a 'D' target at -- better sit down for this, Google fans -- 201.55.  Here are the coordinates, from the weekly chart: A=716.00 (12/28/07); B= 247.30 (11/21/08); and C=670.25

The stock looks primed to fall to at least 478.88, a Hidden Pivot, although the obviousness of a structural support at 473.02 from a key low made in late June could give us an edge for bottom-fishing.  Most traders will be looking for a bullish turn from somewhere above 473, but the Hidden Pivot at 478.88 gives us a more precise tool for speculating on this.  Accordingly, I'll suggest buying two November 560 calls if and when the stock gets within 40 cents of the target. Thereafter, a stop-loss at 477.88 can be used until the stock turns around.  It's difficult to say exactly how much the calls, which closed yesterday at 11.50, will be selling for with the stock at or near our price. My guess would be as low as $7, but probably not less than that because the calls could pick up volatility (aka "juice") on a sharp break lower in the stock.  Assuming your execution is smooth, the stop-loss I've advised should subject you to risk, in theory, of no more than about 40 cents per contract. _____ UPDATE (October 5): The low of this week's swoon came within less than $2 of our 478.88 target, but because of the magnitude of the hysterical short-squeeze that followed, we'll set aside any thoughts of bottom-fishing as we'd originally planned. In the end, it was not the Hidden Pivot that turned the stock, but the mob's expectations that June 24's low at 473.02 would act as support.  Because the support is so obvious, it seems all but certain that GOOG will test it.

Google has been marking time for more than six weeks, but unless it can pop above the 558.52 high recorded on September 20, a fall of at least 10 percent to the 478.88 target shown will remain in prospect. The stock has thus far held its ground near the midpoint support, but the failure of Tuesday's short-squeeze rally to stay aloft may force the hand of the stock's institutional sponsors.