The newspaper business is in a state of collapse, undermining the very health of democracy in America in ways that I shall explain. From a financial standpoint, the fatal problems of newspapers are well known, having begun with the encroachment of web-based advertising on crucial sources of revenue, most particularly classified ads. Adding to this problem is the death spiral of brick-and-mortar retail, a failure that has all but killed the big display ads that used to spread across two full pages. Newsprint and delivery costs have soared as well. The result is that newspapers can no longer afford to cover the news. This is true not only for small papers with circulation of less than 50,000, but for big metros such as the Chicago Tribune, Boston Globe, Dallas Morning News and the San Francisco Chronicle; and for newspapers with national or international reach, such as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and USA Today. All have dramatically downsized, not only in width and thickness, but in the resources they allocate to covering even the most important stories. » Read the full article
New record highs for the broad averages seemed all but a foregone conclusion at Thursday’s close, so perhaps we should guard against the unexpected: weakness on a Friday! That would be very unexpected indeed, and it would probably take some earth-shattering news to bring it about. Regardless, I’ve provided a Hidden Pivot rally target for the E-Mini S&Ps that can serve bulls and bears alike. We’ll also be looking for a pop in Alibaba, having purchased a few expiring out-of-the-money calls before yesterday’s close to keep ourselves interested in the week’s finale.
Based on my chat room post late in Thursday’s session, subscribers were able to stake out some small ‘Jackpot Bets,’ buying expiring calls at the 112 and 113 strikes for as little, respectively, as 0.21 and 0.15. The latter options traded for as little as 0.10 yesterday before rocketing to 1.00 when Bahh-Bahh found traction after the opening and soared $5 in the space of an hour. It can, and often does, perform similar feats on a given day, and that’s why I would rather be long a few out-of-the-money calls for cheap on expiration day than short them. The goal of these jackpot bets, which we ordinarily initiate on Friday mornings in the first hour, is to cash out half of the options in the early going for twice what we’ve paid for them, assuming the opportunity arises. If successful, that leaves us with a risk-free chance to make perhaps 5 to 10 times our money. In practice, subscribers have done this or even better numerous times, and even when things did not go our way they were able to do no worse than break even.
I’ve included a chart that suggests that, from a purely visual standpoint, a run-up to as high as 114.80 on Friday is hardly unlikely. We don’t need that to happen to make a nice score, however, since even if BABA rallies just $1.50 or so in the early going, there will likely be an opportunity to ‘double out’ on half of our positions. If the stock opens lower on Friday there could still be a chance to get a jackpot bet down. However, I’d suggest doing so with options of a lower strike purchased for perhaps 0.20 or less. Don’t bet more than you are comfortable losing, since this gambit is highly speculative. My guideline is to invest no more than you would on some 20-to-1 horse that you happened to like.
GDXJ’s ups and downs are in ‘dueling’ mode at the moment, alternating between bullish and bearish feints. It was mildly bullish when the stock slightly exceeded the 129.30 target shown on Tuesday. However, yesterday’s slide also exceeded a Hidden Pivot target — in this case a hidden support at 27.21. Taken together, the action suggests that this vehicle will spend the next few days marking time in the range 28-29. The picture would brighten on a thrust exceeding 29.20 on Thursday, since that would imply more upside to at least 31.24. Alternatively, a continuation of the downtrend past 25.67 would have equally bearish implications.
Idaho North [OTC symbol: IDAH] offers investors a potentially lucrative synergy between two very successful entrepreneurs. CEO Mark Fralich started out as a reporter with the Associated Press News Service but went on to co-found Spoval Fiber Optics before moving into the exploration business with Mines Management, Consolidated Goldfields Corp. and some other natural resource companies. Like most executives in the exploration business, he is an aggressive risk-taker. But he is also an astute bettor, perhaps never moreso than in his choice of Thomas Callicrate to head up his technical team.
Callicrate is bottled lightning, a geologist who may know more about ore deposits in Nevada than anyone else in the world. I counted no fewer than 250 file cabinets in the barn-size work buildings that surround Callicrate’s spectacular home in Carson City. He seems to have committed every geological map in those cabinets to memory, and he can tell you exactly where each and every rock came from in the massive stone fireplace that dominates his living room and in his beautifully landscaped gardens. The fact that he chose to affiliate with IDAH attests to his confidence in Fralich’s ability to exploit to-the-max whatever ore deposits the company is able to find.
From a technical standpoint, the company’s shares have not traded for long enough to offer a sound basis for prediction. The stock has fluctuated between 0.08 and 0.24 since being OTC-listed in November 2013. That said, it would be no worse than an even bet to hit 0.3000 a share, nearly double its current price, if it can push past the red line at 0.2150. That’s a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance, and it will remain valid as a minimum upside target for the near term unless the stock falls below 0.1300 first.