Pundits, pols, investors and pollsters got it very wrong on Brexit, trusting the oddsmakers at Ladbrokes to handicap the outcome. Now let’s see how well these geniuses do ferreting out evidence in the months and years ahead that Britain’s exit from the EU has had much of an impact on the economic world, where it matters. Obama, ever the unregenerate jerk, threatened to move Britain to the back of the queue on trade deals with the U.S. Yeah, sure, Mr. President: Whip them, kick them, beat them, lock out their luxury cars and pharmaceutical products with a vindictive stroke of your pen. In the meantime, we await a sign, any sign, that Brexit has been the disaster that virtually every scare-mongering newspaper in the world proclaimed it to be over the weekend. Until tangible evidence of this surfaces — and I very strongly doubt that it will — don’t expect Brexit fallout to hold down the world’s stock markets as they continue to gorge themselves on easy money from the central banks.
The most interesting thing about the Brexit vote is that it has significantly shortened the odds of a Trump victory in November. That’s assuming he’s nominated, of course, and despite the fact that he is the hands-down worst gamble that an increasingly desperate American electorate has taken since they lifted Obama from well-earned obscurity in 2008. It could not be clearer, however, that Trump and Brexit are perfectly interchangeable for purposes of measuring the growing rage of voters everywhere. The pundits, pollsters, EU bureaucrats, pols and news media-hacks who blew the call on Brexit will malign Trump relentlessly in the months ahead, and they will tell us with the usual pseudo-scientific certitude that Hillary is going to win (assuming she’s not indicted first). But they will be as wrong about that as they were about Brexit — about pretty much everything that the rabble they would presume to instruct hold dear these days.