The broad averages have been ratcheting steadily higher since the day after the election, creating the sort of tedium that can mask complacency. My latest tout for the E-Mini S&Ps makes note of this while offering some specific price levels that could come into play if institutional traders experience one of those Friday mood swings for which they have become notorious. I mention all of this only because I found myself growing complacent, suffused with the dull expectation that tomorrow will be just another boring day. Let’s hope so, since it would be the perfect start for a relaxing weekend.
Beware the Friday Mood SwingPosted Thursday, December 1 0 comments
CLF17 – January Crude (Last:50.66)Posted December 2, 2016, 1:24 am
$+DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:)Posted December 1, 2016, 9:20 pm
$SIH17 – March Silver (Last:16.435)Posted November 30, 2016, 10:53 pm
$GCG17 – February Gold (Last:1170.60)Posted November 30, 2016, 10:38 pm
$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:111.46)Posted November 29, 2016, 8:26 pm
Apple is no longer a bellwether stock, just a gigantic, non-innovator that sells a lot of pricey computer hardware and gratuitous new versions of its smart phone. Even so, because of its enormous capitalization and heavy institutional sponsorship, it needs to be in bullish gear for the broad averages to move higher. Instead, the stock has been marking time for six straight days, providing neither leadership nor inspiration for traders who might otherwise be coaxed into buying something, anything. My hunch is that AAPL will take the path of least resistance and head lower if it can’t close above the 111.89 midpoint pivot shown by Thursday. If AMZN, too, heads lower, look for a not-so-dull ending to what so far has been a tiresomely dull week.
$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:120.53)Posted November 20, 2016, 9:02 pm
HGZ16 – December Copper (Last:2.4590)Posted November 18, 2016, 2:16 am
There is as yet insufficient evidence to speculate on whether copper’s impressive post-election leap will turn into a belly flop, or instead prove to be the booster stage of a much bigger rally. Whichever is the case — and I strongly doubt there will be any in-betweens — it’s inconceivable that this legendarily sensitive economic barometer will guess the outcome incorrectly. Inflation, or deflation? Growth or economic stagnation? Keep your eyes focused on ‘doc’ copper and you cannot miss an important turn — assuming one comes, and however unexpected — toward inflation following 35 years of the opposite.
From a technical standpoint, it is necessary to see that, so far at least, copper’s steepest rally in a decade is still just a fledgling on the weekly chart. Yes, it has surmounted a daunting multitude of minor peaks. However, these are mere foothills in comparison to the two ‘external’ peaks that I’ve labeled. The higher lies at 3.2790, and any rally from these levels that surpasses it without taking much of a breather along the way will be convincing evidence that the rip-roaring inflation of the 1970s is about to return in some shape or form. Anything less than that, however, can only suggest that an economic upswing of indeterminate strength is coming and perhaps no more.
$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:18589)Posted November 9, 2016, 7:54 pm
The chart included with yesterday’s DJIA tout showed a big-picture pattern going back to early 2016 that projects to as high as 19727. This one, tracing back to early July, points to a somewhat less ambitious target at 19489. It is more suitable for trading because Hidden Pivot levels x, p and p2 are closer together, yielding theoretically lower-risk ‘mechanical’ entries from any of the three levels. It has also been loosely confirmed by an intraday high on Wednesday at 18650 that fell within spitting distance of the 18686 midpoint pivot. The Indoos will have to breach it decisively to become and odds on shot for a run-up to 19489, so we’ll wait and see what happens before we look for opportunities. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time, since the any trades will require interpolating the various levels using DIA. A possible play might involve, for instance, legging into a vertical call spread pegged to the 195 strike once 186 has been exceeded.
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A Holiday Note
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Can This Go on for Four More Years?
Waiting for a Verdict on the Economy
Ready to Have Your Expectations Managed?
Can ‘Trump Rally’ Overcome Severe Headwinds?