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The Morning Line

Bearish Drumbeat of Top Gurus Quickens

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There are numerous bullish ABC pattern big and small pushing the broad averages higher, but I’ve used a relatively modest one to project a 2303.00 rally target for the E-Mini S&Ps that could be hit within the next day or two.  My instructions are ostensibly geared toward getting long for the ride, but a potentially juicier opportunity could come from getting short at the target. We’ve been quite successful at this game in the past even though the bull market has always eventually stopped us out of whatever portion of our position we’d held for a swing at the fences.  Let me add that, for reasons of objectivity, although I typically tune out the technical forecasts of colleagues, even the ones I greatly respect, it’s difficult to ignore the quickening tempo of their bearish drumbeat lately.

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$ESU16 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:2179.00)

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$GCZ16 – December Gold (Last:1326.90)

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$AMZN – Amazon (Last:769.00)

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$AG – First Majestic Silver (Last:13.12)

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If p2 fails as supportA lively discussion in the chat room this morning underscored First Majestic’s popularity as a vehicle for trading and investing in silver. It has come down hard since peaking at 19.15 two weeks ago. Keep in mind, however, that some of the sellers would have bought the stock for as little as $2.40 in mid-January, and they are understandably eager to nail down gains that are still enormous. Under the circumstances, we shouldn’t be surprised to see them pounding AG pretty hard. It hit a low of $12.85 today, 3o% below the August 10 high, but looks like it could fall even farther before the drubbing ends.

This became apparent early in the session when AG crushed a 13.94 Hidden Pivot support that had held for two days. On Monday, Majestic bounced sharply from within two cents of that target; but the rally died on Tuesday’s opening bar at 14.99, and the subsequent relapse has been punitive. The ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot support at 12.85 saved the day, providing a precise but so-far weak bounce. If it gives way on Thursday as I expect, however, look for the stock to fall to at least 12.14. You could buy aggressively there with a stop-loss as tight as a nickel, but don’t let your guard down if the trade should go our way initially.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$MSFT – Microsoft (Last:57.89)

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MSFT's shoddy practicesMicrosoft is the Hillary Clinton of the computer world, moving up the success ladder by lying, extorting, cutting the throats of competitors and exercising unfailingly poor judgment. We are all familiar with Hillary’s story. But for Microsoft, it began with Bill Gates’ lowball buyout of DOS from its inventor, followed by a con-job of IBM to secure royalty rights to the operating system. When Gates killed off Netscape by bundling Internet Explorer with every new PC and laptop, a complicit, congenitally stupid press didn’t catch up with him until after he’d crushed Netscape and its founder, Mark Andressen. Now, just like Hillary, Microsoft is acting more brazenly than ever, sabotaging Windows 7 in order to push the PC world onto a Windows 10 platform that few want and no one needs. Click here for the sordid story in Forbes if you think I’ve exaggerated.

Despite all of this, or perhaps because of it, Microsoft shares have soared into record territory and look primed to move even higher.  From a technical standpoint, assuming they get past a Hidden Pivot resistance at 58.51, the next target above it would be 65.16.  Jot down those numbers if you trade the stock or hold a long-term position, since either target could mark an important top. If so, it would likely be caused by the global rejection of Windows 10. Perhaps that’s too much to hope for in a world where companies that do business ethically all too often wind up as roadkill.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:36.46)

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Shorting JNK looks promisingThis ETF is a great proxy for the mindset of money managers. By and large, they will buy as much garbage as they can get their hands on if it promises to add a few paltry basis points to the performance of their portfolios. However, this dumpster-quality vehicle, which tracks junk bonds, looks like it’s about to run out the clock on bulls. The 37.25 target shown has been confirmed by some very precise hits at the  red and pink lines, respectively the midpoint and secondary pivots of the pattern, and JNK should therefore be shorted if and when it reaches the target.

The trade should be attempted only if you are able to short shares or naked calls, since we already know that buying puts will not produce a profit no matter how steeply JNK might subsequently fall.  The puts are simply too knowledgeably priced to give buyers an edge. Accordingly, I’ll recommend offering 400 shares short at 37.22, stop 37.45, good till canceled. If I see an easy way to get long first for a profitable ride to the target, presumably using a ‘mechanical’ bid at the pink line, I’ll signal it in the chat room and via an email alert. Be sure to check ‘Email Notifications’ on your account page if you want to be apprised in real time.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$SIU16 – September Silver (Last:18.750)

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$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:139.89)

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We'll use the trendline in TLTI’m tracking a 500-share position with a cost basis that has been lowered by profit-taking to 128.02. Attacks by sellers have been savage but short-lived. However, because the long-term trend isn’t in doubt, we should try to augment our position on weakness. For now, use a 137.70 bid for 400 shares to do so, good-till-canceled. Check daily for updates, since I will modify our strategy if TLT shows reluctance to gift us with a bargain price.  This is a long-term play, and I encourage new subscribers who want to get their feet wet to track this tout closely, since I will periodically update with tactics to augment the position. ______ UPDATE (August 17, 8:10 p.m. EDT): Lower the bid to 137.57, since the trendline shown (see inset, a new chart) is more compelling than any Hidden Pivot-based correction target I could offer you at the moment._______ UPDATE (August 25, 1:32 a.m.): Raise the bid to 137.71 to compensate for the rising slope of the trendline.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.1336)

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SNIPF looks likeI’ve been using a 0.0764 target as a potential bear-market bottom, but the newly drawn chart shown (see inset) supports a less pessimistic outcome — i.e., a bullish reversal from 0.1086, a ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot support. I continue to hold a third of an original 150,000-share position, most of it acquired between 0.10 and 0.15 in 2014, having passed up an opportunity to take some profits on last year’s sensational run-up to 78 cents. Now, I’m enthused about the prospect of rebuilding the position, especially if the stock comes down to the 0.1086 pivot — or better yet, to 0.0764.  Besides the potentially bullish implications of the chart, I am impressed with the way Snipp CEO Atul Sabharwal handled some tough questions posed by shareholders who have been understandably disappointed by the stock’s horrific slide over the last 15 months. To access this Q&A, which has been presented on Snipp’s web site as a FAQ, click here. _______ UPDATE (August 4, 12:46 a.m. EDT): The rally begun on July 11 targets 0.1572 on the hourly chart (a=0.1210 on 7/13), but if buyers can push the stock just a bit higher, surpassing mid-June’s 0.1673 peak, it would be the most bullish thing SNIPF has done in a long while. _______ UPDATE (August 13. 1:02 p.m.) The stock appears to be basing, having spent the last month-and-a-half in heavy chop between 0.12 and 0.15. An upthrust exceeding 0.1680 would imply that bulls are finally getting the upper hand, but I’ll stick with my sub-0.11 bid for now, since the stock’s dismal performance since peaking in February 2015 argues against paying up. _______ UPDATE (August 21, 1:20 p.m.): The stock has been rangebound between 0.12 and 0.15 for two months, but it looks like it will have to go at least somewhat lower in order to get the running start it needs to exit this bog._______UPDATE (August 25, 1:35 a.m.):  Please note that 0.1086 is a very important Hidden Pivot support, and that its decisive breach could have very bearish implications for the stock.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$TYX.X – 30-Year T-Bond Rate (Last:2.138)

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30-Year Bond Rate points much lowerSince early 2014, when 30-year T-Bonds were yielding close to 4%, Rick’s Picks has been confidently predicting rates would ultimately fall to at least 1.64%.  The technical basis for this forecast is shown in the accompanying chart (see inset). It went sharply against a consensus that includes nearly every economist, bankster and pundit who has been quoted on the subject. It has also flouted the publicly stated opinions of such heavyweights as Bill Gross, Paul Krugman, George Soros and some Federal Reserve governors.  Through it all, only someone with a deflationist perspective could have seen the relentless decline in rates that was yet to come. We doubt the inflationists will have learned much, however, since they still seem to be expecting long-term rates to reverse and start moving sharply higher “any day now.”  There are some exceptions, but even the few who disagree say rates are likely to “stay low” for a while, rather than continue to fall as we expect.

It’s easy to see why they have clung to this idea, since long-term rates have already fallen from a high of 15% in 1981 to a recent, record low of around 2.13%.  Simple arithmetic says that they cannot fall much farther. However, from an investment standpoint, because bond prices vary inversely with yields, and because long-term bonds are very leveraged to small changes in long-term rates, there remains substantial capital gains potential if the 30-year should hit 1.64%. We have made this point before many times — not only in Rick’s Picks, but in interviews available online with BBC’s Max Keiser, Kenneth Ameduri at CrushTheStreet, USA Watchdog’s Greg HunterThe Korelin Economic ReportBenzinga.com,  Urban Survival Network and Howe Street, to name a few.

From a technical standpoint based on the chart pattern shown,  the steep decline over the last two weeks has made the 1.639% target even more likely to be achieved. Moreover, because 2015’s powerful but relatively fleeting bounce in rates began almost precisely from the pink line, a ‘secondary Hidden Pivot’ support at 2.223%, odds are strong not only that 1.639% will represent an important bottom, but that the bottom will be precise.  With this week’s decisive breach of the 2.223%, the formerly supportive pivot has become resistance, implying it can be shorted ‘mechanically’ using our proprietary rules governing this type of entry. The opportunity would be at least a few weeks off, but as always, you can tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time. One final note: There is an additional downside target derived from pattern of even larger degree that suggests a bounce could also come from 1.683%. If this were to happen it would imply a possible final low at 0.624% (!) that would challenge even the hard-core deflationist to imagine what kind of economic disaster might accompany it.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.


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The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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