Tuesday, September 1     Published daily Receive trading 'touts' free
Thought for Today

The Game Has Changed

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DaBoyz have not lost control of the markets, not by a longshot, but they’ll have to get used to being buffeted each night by crazed trading in Asia, the current locus of the world’s financial and economic problems. For the time being, the always tricky game of exhausting sellers ahead of the opening has become even trickier, since it can be well nigh impossible to estimate how powerful the onslaught of orders to sell-at-the-market will be at the bell.  If there’s an avalanche today, I’ve furnished Hidden Pivot benchmarks for the E-Mini S&Ps that could be useful to traders, speculators and even to spectators simply wanting to enjoy the show.

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$ESU15 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:1911.25)

EDT

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$GCZ15 – December Gold (Last:1141.30)

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$CLV15 – October Crude (Last:47.62)

EDT

If p gets second windYesterday’s exceptional short-squeeze probably scared the hell out of the bears, even if it caused us little consternation.  A 49.14 target that I’d aired in the chat room around noon anticipated the intraday high of the nearly $6 rally within 19 cents. The futures were still buy-able at the time, trading nearly $2 beneath the target, but because only one subscribers reported taking advantage, buying a single contract when the futures pulled back to the 47.29 midpoint pivot, I have not established a tracking position.

Looking ahead, we can use the pattern shown to leverage the next upthrust, assuming there is one. The point ‘C’ low is as yet unformed, but in the event that 47.23 survives as a point C low, a follow-through to as high as 52.96 is possible. My hunch is that crude lacks the power for a second-wind rally of that magnitude, and that a stall at the midpoint pivot of the pattern — speculatively 50.10 as of this moment — would be likely (and potentially short-able).

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:121.93)

EDT

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:20.32)

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$VIX.X – CBOE Volatility Index (Last:40.74)

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$+JNK – High-Yield Bond ETF (Last:36.99)

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$SIU15 – September Silver (Last:14.165)

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$ADU15 – September Aussie Dollar (Last:0.7196)

EDT
Aussie dollar is closingThe Australian dollar’s steep slide, now entering its fifth year, looks like it has enough momentum to reach 0.6773.  Although that might be good news for exporters and tourists, it would put the country’s economy under even more strain than it has experienced thus far. Notice, however, that the futures are nearing a Hidden Pivot support at 0.7118 that could brake the fall and possibly even reverse it. It will therefore be a promising spot to try bottom-fishing, assuming it is reached. Currency traders should position themselves accordingly, using the pivot for now as a minimum downside objective. Please note as well that a retirement back up to p=0.7462 would be short-able ‘mechanically’ with a 0.7692 stop. A ‘camouflage’ entry could be used to pare the entry risk by as much as 90%. _______ UPDATE (August 9, 1:25 p.m. EDT):  This presumptive dead-cat bounce has exceeded the 0.7386 midpoint pivot of a bullish pattern that projects to 0.7470. A pullback to p should therefore be regarded as a mechanical buying opportunity, stop 0.7358. _____ UPDATE (August 24): Today’s dive obliterated the 0.7118 support noted above, putting a 0.6773 (!!) target in play.
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Rick weighs in on today’s markets with the Korelin Economic Report Thursday Aug 20 Click here

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The laser-like accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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