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The Morning Line

Monster Moves in GOOG and AMZN

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DaBoyz have goosed GOOG and AMZN sharply higher in after-hours trading after the companies’ earnings easily beat the Street’s most optimistic estimates. The rallies have generated higher targets for both stocks, but the pitch of their respective thrusts is so steep that we should expect them to settle back overnight and into week’s end, much as Facebook has done following similarly impressive earnings announced after Wednesday’s close. Under the circumstances, look for a subdued performance by the broad averages on Friday.

Rick's Picks for Friday
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$GCQ16 – August Gold (Last:1333.50)

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$AMZN – Amazon (Last:766.00)

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Breach of p has shortened oddsAMZN popped a wheelie in after-hours trading, fueled by earnings that exceeded the Street’s most optimistic expectations. Hugely profitable web services were the kicker — up 58% to $2.89 billion compared to the last quarter. Traders lost no time re-pricing Amazon shares with an 11% surge in the blink of an eye. The spike hit $788, a $36 gain relative to the regular-session closing price of $752, but there’s still room for more upside to as high as 803.72. That’s the rally target of the pattern shown, and judging from the sharp penetration of the 784.97 ‘secondary’ pivot, it’s a decent bet to be reached.

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$+ESU16 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:2166.00)

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$+SIU16 – September Silver (Last:20.230)

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$GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:29.78)

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$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.1330)

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SNIPF looks likeI’ve been using a 0.0764 target as a potential bear-market bottom, but the newly drawn chart shown (see inset) supports a less pessimistic outcome — i.e., a bullish reversal from 0.1086, a ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot support. I continue to hold a third of an original 150,000-share position, most of it acquired between 0.10 and 0.15 in 2014, having passed up an opportunity to take some profits on last year’s sensational run-up to 78 cents. Now, I’m enthused about the prospect of rebuilding the position, especially if the stock comes down to the 0.1086 pivot — or better yet, to 0.0764.  Besides the potentially bullish implications of the chart, I am impressed with the way Snipp CEO Atul Sabharwal handled some tough questions posed by shareholders who have been understandably disappointed by the stock’s horrific slide over the last 15 months. To access this Q&A, which has been presented on Snipp’s web site as a FAQ, click here.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:140.65)

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TLT looks vulnerableWe hold a tracking position of 500 shares with a 127.62 cost basis and are short five August 5 137.00 calls against them for 2.50. I will adjust the option price once I’ve heard from subscribers who rolled the covered write on Friday as advised. We rolled to a lower strike in order to gain more protection against the prospect of more weakness over the near term. Based on the pattern shown, the stock (ETF) could fall to as low as 135.27.  If it rallies instead, our covered write would cap profits above 139.50, but we can deal with that if and when we need to.  Newbies eager to defray the cost of a Rick’s Picks subscription should follow my touts for this vehicle closely, since my goal is to provide relatively easy trades in TLT as we augment our long-term bullish position over time. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:15 p.m. EDT): Cover the calls on the opening with an order to buy them at-the-market, since TLT’s strong rally yesterday has put a 148.50 target in play. _______ UPDATE (July 28, 10:35 a.m): The stock opened at 139.78, allowing traders to cover the calls for 2.90 —  40 cents more than we paid for them. This will effectively raise the cost basis of the 500 shares we still hold to 128.02. Do nothing further for now.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$CLQ16 – August Crude (Last:44.72)

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$JYU16 – September Yen (Last:0.94470)

EST

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$TYX.X – 30-Year T-Bond Rate (Last:2.138)

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30-Year Bond Rate points much lowerSince early 2014, when 30-year T-Bonds were yielding close to 4%, Rick’s Picks has been confidently predicting rates would ultimately fall to at least 1.64%.  The technical basis for this forecast is shown in the accompanying chart (see inset). It went sharply against a consensus that includes nearly every economist, bankster and pundit who has been quoted on the subject. It has also flouted the publicly stated opinions of such heavyweights as Bill Gross, Paul Krugman, George Soros and some Federal Reserve governors.  Through it all, only someone with a deflationist perspective could have seen the relentless decline in rates that was yet to come. We doubt the inflationists will have learned much, however, since they still seem to be expecting long-term rates to reverse and start moving sharply higher “any day now.”  There are some exceptions, but even the few who disagree say rates are likely to “stay low” for a while, rather than continue to fall as we expect.

It’s easy to see why they have clung to this idea, since long-term rates have already fallen from a high of 15% in 1981 to a recent, record low of around 2.13%.  Simple arithmetic says that they cannot fall much farther. However, from an investment standpoint, because bond prices vary inversely with yields, and because long-term bonds are very leveraged to small changes in long-term rates, there remains substantial capital gains potential if the 30-year should hit 1.64%. We have made this point before many times — not only in Rick’s Picks, but in interviews available online with BBC’s Max Keiser, Kenneth Ameduri at CrushTheStreet, USA Watchdog’s Greg HunterThe Korelin Economic ReportBenzinga.com,  Urban Survival Network and Howe Street, to name a few.

From a technical standpoint based on the chart pattern shown,  the steep decline over the last two weeks has made the 1.639% target even more likely to be achieved. Moreover, because 2015’s powerful but relatively fleeting bounce in rates began almost precisely from the pink line, a ‘secondary Hidden Pivot’ support at 2.223%, odds are strong not only that 1.639% will represent an important bottom, but that the bottom will be precise.  With this week’s decisive breach of the 2.223%, the formerly supportive pivot has become resistance, implying it can be shorted ‘mechanically’ using our proprietary rules governing this type of entry. The opportunity would be at least a few weeks off, but as always, you can tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time. One final note: There is an additional downside target derived from pattern of even larger degree that suggests a bounce could also come from 1.683%. If this were to happen it would imply a possible final low at 0.624% (!) that would challenge even the hard-core deflationist to imagine what kind of economic disaster might accompany it.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.


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