McDonald’s, where a family of four can eat breakfast, lunch or dinner for less than it costs to prepare a meal at home, is blaming weak consumer spending for an unprecedented stretch of punk earnings . Someone should level with them: “It’s the hamburgers, stupid!” Q3 profits were down by 30%, generating a lot of hissing and clucking on Wall Street. Portfolio managers must be scratching their heads trying to figure out how the fortunes of an American icon could have fallen so swiftly. Doubtless, Mickey D’s oh-so-clever ad-men are hard at work on a rescue effort, crafting a powerful new “message” for the Super Bowl audience. What they really need to craft is a hamburger that tastes more like one. Face it, we’ve been eating mystery-meat patties under the Golden Arches by the tens of billions for three generations, and what little savor they provide has come solely from the ketchup, pickles, mustard and onion on top. » Read the full article
Even though the broad averages appear likely to trade at new record highs, I’ve recommended a small short in DIA not far above yesterday’s peak. I’m going against my gut on this one simply because that which I, and presumably many others, are unable to imagine — in this case, the violent short-squeeze of the last two weeks simply sputtering out in the opening minutes — will always be worth betting against, at least in a small way.
After a ferocious, short-squeeze rally of 10% from mid-October’s lows, the futures show no sign of slowing down. Yesterday they exceeded yet another peak on the daily chart, stretching their still-uncorrected winning streak to ten days. We can use the 2037.50 Hidden Pivot target shown as a minimum upside objective for the near term, since, as far as I’m concerned, it is all but a foregone conclusion that it will be achieved. We can also plan on getting short at the target, with profits banked on the way up providing a generous cushion against the risk of intercepting the rally.
More downside over the near-term to at least 15.865 (see inset) looks very likely, so traders should position from the short side. The opportunity may be past by morning, but night owls can use an entry trigger on the lesser charts (i.e., 5-minute bar or less) to get aboard. I’ve highlighted the relevant ABC pattern, which appears at the rightmost edge of the chart. ______ UPDATE (9:23 a.m. EDT): Anyone who got short as advised made a pile of money overnight without much stress. The futures have plummeted and are currently down about 63 cents, having recorded a so-far low at 15.635 that exceeded our target by by 23 cents.
The failure of Tuesday’s rally to reach the modest, 1260.30 Hidden Pivot target we were using as a minimum upside objective is not exactly a sign of robust health. The target remains theoretically viable because the point ‘C’ low at 1232.00 with which it is associated is still intact. However, the hourly chart has swung bearishly impulsive as a result of the ratcheting, two-day sell-off from the recent high at 1255.60. Short-term downside potential is to the 1232.30 target shown. If this Hidden Pivot support is easily breached, however, it would suggest more sellers are waiting in the wings. Alternatively, the futures would need to surpass 1246.30 without having first touched the 1239.30 midpoint support (see inset) to turn the hourly chart short-term bullish. _______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:01 p.m. EDT): I expect the next leg down to reach the 1216.40 Hidden Pivot support shown. Alternatively, a print today at 1236.30 would give bulls a fighting chance. _______ UPDATE (October 29, 1:23 p.m.): 1202.10 is my new downside target — a Hidden Pivot support identified during this morning’s weekly tutorial session. _______ UPDATE: An 1125.00 target broached yesterday during my regular interview with Al Korelin should suffice to keep you out of trouble. I hadn’t imagined the futures would get halfway there overnight.
Apple’s gap yesterday through the 100.41 midpoint resistance (see inset) strongly implies that its D sibling at 105.64 will be reached. Although a pullback to the midpoint should be treated as a belated buying opportunity, I wouldn’t suggest chasing the stock higher. That said, the four labeled peaks are tailor-made for the Hidden Pivot trader who can employ the ‘camouflage’ technique for getting long. If you understand why, you should go for it! _______ UPDATE (8:13 p.m.): The broad averages pulled Apple back down to earth yesterday when the stock tried to go opposite weakness that surfaced around mid-session. This runs flatly counter to my speculative idea that AAPL might pull the broad averages higher. That’s still possible, since yesterday’s 104.11 peak fell 53 cents of a rally target that remains valid in theory. However, we’ll eschew speculation for now and simply watch to see whether the 102.44 Hidden Pivot support holds (see inset, a new chart). _______ UPDATE (October 23, 1:59 p.m.): Apple has rebounded sharply today, off a 102.90 correction low to a so-far high of 105.05 that’s 59 cents shy of our target. Most longs should have been exited by now. ______ UPDATE (October 27, 8:07 p.m.): Friday’s high at 105.49 came within 0.15 of the target flagged above. Bulls can continue to hold small long positions for a swing at the fences, but I’d suggest tying your shares to a stop-loss based on a downtrending impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Currently, that would imply stopping yourself out if an uncorrected fall touches 104.52. _______ UPDATE (October 28, 8:44 p.m.): Still long? Be alert at 107.08, a Hidden Pivot target that looks all but certain to be reached but which could stop the rally cold. You should tighten your trailing stop there in any case. ______ UPDATE (October 29, 9:25 p.m.): The rally has shredded some challenging Hidden Pivots, but let’s see if it can bully its way past the 109.07 target shown. In any case, it is my minimum upside objective for the near term.