July 22nd, 2014
Published Daily
HP Seminar Information page.

How Will It All End?

by Rick Ackerman on July 21, 2014 12:01 am GMT · 40 comments

How do you see the economic endgame playing out for the U.S. and the world? That’s this week’s discussion topic, and although some in this forum will undoubtedly lean toward the Armageddon scenario, we should always leave room to imagine a far sunnier outcome, such as a Second Great Depression deeper than the Mindanao Trench.  I want you to have fun with this one, so set your minds free before you put pen to paper.  My own outlook falls somewhere in-between, tempered by the perhaps misplaced hope that the inevitable collapse of the financial system will not bring in its wake famine, disease, earthquakes, floods, endless global wars and the die-off of three billion human beings. All of these events have been prophesied in the Bible and by Nostradamus, but whether you choose to believe them or not is a personal matter. » Read the full article


TODAY'S ACTION for Tuesday

Trust the Bull, but Verify…

by Rick Ackerman on July 22, 2014 5:28 am GMT · 0 comments

The E-Mini S&Ps made no progress whatsoever yesterday toward an ostensibly ‘easy’ rally target at 1984.50. In the past, stalemates like this one have been resolved to the upside once sufficient pressure has built up to trigger a wave of short-covering. Odds will always favor that scenario in a bull market that has been chugging along for more than five years, but we’ll keep an eye on the lesser charts nevertheless just to be sure. The first sign that something has changed would occur with minor abcd retracements exceeding their d targets.


Rick's Picks for Tuesday
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
Hidden Pivot Calculator   Education Page
All Picks By Issue:

$GCQ14 – August Gold (Last:1311.60)

by Rick Ackerman on July 22, 2014 1:29 am GMT

The futures looked like they could go either way as Monday’s session drew to a close. However, the stall within 0.70 of the 1318.30 midpoint resistance I’d flagged implies that a decisive move past it would reach its D-target sibling at 1331.60. Alternatively, my worst-case target for the near term would be the 1278.20 Hidden Pivot support in the lower-right quadrant of the chart — or possibly even 1271.70 if any lower.  The accuracy of this target would be affirmed by a bounce, possibly tradable, from within two or three ticks of the 1302.00 midpoint support. ________ UPDATE (9:57 a.m. EDT):  Gold has bounced $14 this morning from a low just two ticks (0.20) from the 1302.00 midpoint pivot flagged above. Now, if the futures breach the support, we’ll know EXACTLY where they are headed.

$PCLN – Priceline (Last:1215.98)

by Rick Ackerman on July 22, 2014 5:10 am GMT

The stock’s stall two weeks ago near a 1268.66 midpoint resistance shown suggests it could get to 1354.32 on a breakout.  Although we cannot predict with confidence if or when this will happen because PCLN has been meandering sideways for the last five weeks, as a riskless play I’ll suggest buying the August 16 1340-1350-1360 call butterfly spread for ‘even’ 32 times. This means you would short two 1350 calls, buy one 1340 call and one 1360 call for no debit or credit.  In practice the easiest way to do this will be to buy the 1340/1350 call spread 1:1 at targeted swing lows, and to sell the 1350/1360 call spread 1:1 at targeted highs. If you do either and then get a move your way of as little as perhaps $2.50, legging into the ‘fly for free (or even a small credit) would be relatively easy. The maximum profit on this position would be 32 x $1000 = $32,000, although in practice we’d be doing well to come away with half that much if the stock were to rally to 1350 by August 16.

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$+CLQ14 – August Crude (Last:104.78)

by Rick Ackerman on July 21, 2014 12:03 am GMT

Crude futures have been pretty whacky lately, but not so whacky as to fool us if we are monitoring the lesser charts. Notice that the recent high fell within 23 cents of the 103.71 target. Although we usually allow 21 cents of leeway, this is still close enough to affirm that price action in this vehicle is both predictable and tradable. Accordingly, traders can use the downtrending abc shown to bottom-fish at either the p=102.71, or at D=102.09.  If the bull trend begun from last Tuesday’s low is going to continue, we should see the upward reversal occur from p or very near it. Please note that despite crude’s recent plunge, I still have significantly higher targets outstanding, the first of which is 109.21, basis the August futures. _______ UPDATE (4:12 p.m. EDT): Wowie! The futures trampolined $2.22 from within 6 cents of the 102.71 correction target flagged above.  If you caught a ride from near the low and still hold contacts, please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance.

$ESU14 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:1968.25)

by Rick Ackerman on July 21, 2014 12:01 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$SLW – Silver Wheaton (Last:26.72)

by Rick Ackerman on July 17, 2014 12:05 am GMT

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

 Member-only content. Please Login or get a free trial of Rick's Picks to view.

$NFLX – Netflix (Last:452.00)

by Rick Ackerman on July 9, 2014 3:25 am GMT

Netflix’s so-far $37 selloff has followed a peak last week at 475.87 that slightly overshot a Hidden Pivot at 474.50 I’d characterized as ‘a big-picture target where an important top is even more likely.’ A chat-roomer who evidently took this prediction to heart reported buying puts last Thursday for 1.24 that he cashed out for 8.90 yesterday. This could be just the start of NFLX’s comeuppance for all those who inflated this gas-bag to undeserved heights. If you took a position and are still holding it, please let me know in the chat room and I will update guidance. For now, though, let me suggest that you take profits on half of any short position entered near the recent top. _______ UPDATE (July 10, 10:23 p.m.): Bears failed to achieve a Hidden Pivot target yesterday, presumably because DaBoyz shook the stock down so hard on the opening bar that it exhausted sellers prematurely. The missed target suggests that traders will enjoy decent odds bottom-fishing the midpoint pivot shown at 433.62 (see inset, a new chart) with a stop-loss as tight as 8 cents. If it’s hit, expect the selling to continue down to at least 423.05, a Hidden Pivot that can be bottom-fished with as tight a stop-loss as you can abide. _______ UPDATE (July 14, 11:07 p.m. EDT): A turn from 428.20, precisely between the two pivots flagged above, left our bid high and  dry.  The bull leg that has followed could be the start of a rally cycle with the potential to reach 486.86. First, though, let’s see whether buyers can tackle a midpoint pivot at 457.53 that is associated with the target. _______ UPDATE (July 16 at 6:47 p.m.): Let’s not overlook the downside — specifically, the 433.69 midpoint pivot and its D sibling at 411.67.  Bears can short the break for a move to either, and both can be bottom-fished with the tight stop-loss you can abide. ______ UPDATE (July 22, 12:15 a.m.): The stock turned higher from $2 above the midpoint support, implying that bulls are about to dominate once again.  Call prices are on the moon, however — way too expensive for a straight directional bet. Instead, I’ll suggest buying the August 2 – July 25 calendar spread eight times for 1.50, day order, contingent on the stock trading 451.00 or higher. Please report any fills in the chat room. _______ UPDATE (July 22, 12:05 p.m.):  With today’s huge air pocket, the stock obviously remains in the grip of DaBoyz. My assumption will always be that steep declines in NFLX are brazen shakeouts, engineered by strong hands to steal stock at fire-sale prices from weak hands. In this instance, the downdraft appears likely to hit 413.96 before DaBoyz run it up again. If and when that number is hit, you can bottom-fish there with the tightest stop-loss imaginable.

The Dollar Index turned higher yesterday an inch from a correction target that had been three weeks in coming (see inset). This portends a bullish change for the intermediate term.  The actual target is 79.74, and there is always a chance it will be breached. If so, there’s an alternative target at 79.62, but if it fails as well, especially without a fight, the implication would be more slippage to as low as  78.91, where a key low recorded in early May would thereupon beg to be tested. _______ UPDATE (11:17 p.m. EDT): Yesterday’s low occurred at 79.74 exactly. If the dollar is about to reverse and move higher, it will have to happen here, and now. _______ UPDATE (July 9, 2:33 a.m. ET): The dollar rallied strongly for a few days, but it is still not out of the woods because the move narrowly failed to clear an important ‘external’ peak at 80.38 recorded on 6/26. _______ UPDATE (July 16, 6:55 p.m.): DXY came within an inch of a clear and important Hidden Pivot rally target at 80.60 yesterday (see inset, a new chart). However, it will have to push past it to imply that the rally from the July 1 low (which had been predicted to-the-penny) is more than just a flash-in-the-pan.


Hidden Pivot Webinar & Tutorials
The Hidden Pivot Webinar is two-day event is designed to teach you the risk-averse trading strategies Rick has taken to his seminars around the world. Once you have learned his proprietary secrets, you will approach trading and investing with enough confidence to make your own decisions without having to rely on the advice of others. The next Webinar will take place on August 13-14, 2014. For more information, or to register, click here.