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E-Mini Forecast Pulls Out All the Stops

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My latest E-Mini S&P tout pulls out all the stops with an ambitious target that would be equivalent to a 700-point rally in the Dow. It is not yet in-the-bag, but the levels I’ve drawn on the accompanying chart provide precise benchmarks for gauging trend strength. The various Hidden Pivot levels could prove especially useful to traders familiar with my ‘mechanical’ entry tactics.

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$ESM16 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:2090.75)

EST

Above p, ES would becomeAs always, the strongest rallies are being driven entirely by short-covering. Even so, it can sometimes take a few days to goad bears into stampeding anew. Usually, the latest drivel from the Fed will suffice to trigger a panic that sends stocks into wild spasms. Something has changed, however; for it has become clear over the last few months that it no longer matters whether the news is ostensibly bullish or bearish. Whatever the headline, the resulting movement of shares has invariably been upward. Which brings us to the chart accompanying this tout. Although two days of dithering have failed to push the futures past the red line, a crucial resistance that I refer to as a midpoint Hidden Pivot, there should be little doubt that buyers will punch through it either today or Monday.

If and when that happens, I’d lay 4-to-1 odds that the futures will hit the D target at 2169.25 within the next 5-8 days, if not sooner. That would be equivalent to a Dow rally of about 650-700 points. Traders who are familiar with my Hidden Pivot Method may have noticed that the stall the last two days has occurred just shy of the red line at 2095.63 rather than precisely at the line as we might have expected. This is probably because of the ‘twin peaks’ resistance posed by a double top near 2094 in late April that began a month-long decline. That makes these tops a relatively important obstacle. Once they are exceeded, however, it will be clear sailing all the way to 2169.25. If the rally smashes through the pink line, a ‘secondary Hidden Pivot at 2132.44, within the next 3-4 days, it would likely be steep enough to suggest that a blowoff top is in progress.

Whatever the case, we should trade with a very bullish bias above the 2095.63 red line, the better to rack up as much profit as we can in order to cushion a short from 2169.25.  There are no guarantees that that will be THE top, but I have little doubt that we will see a tradable reaction from within a hair of that price. The target is sufficiently clear and compelling that even my drum-rolling it publicly is not likely to jinx it. Bottom line:  The E-Mini S&Ps WILL get to the target, and the target WILL produce a tradable pullback. Traders familiar with my Hidden Pivot Method should plan accordingly, since ‘mechanical’ entries on retracements to any of the three Hidden Pivot levels — x, p or p2 — will offer the best odds we’ve had on this vehicle in a long while.  As always, all bets are off if nuclear war or some catastrophic act of terrorism cools the insanity.

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$GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:22.93)

EST

Bounce from p2 in GDXGDX recouped all of Wednesday’s early-morning losses to close up on the day, but not before doing some damage to the daily chart. The 21.94 intraday bottom exceeded an important ‘external’ low at 22.37 (see inset) recorded on April 25, generating the first bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree since mid-January. The effect would be compounded if the decline surpasses yet another key low at 21.30 without an intervening upward correction.  If there’s a  silver lining, it comes from the downtrend’s failure, at least so far, to reach the 21.20 ‘d’ target shown. It is also a tentatively bullish sign that the bounce came almost precisely at the secondary pivot, 21.97.  With such mixed signs, however, we’ll back away for now and monitor the lesser charts for evidence that bulls might be regaining their strength. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 5:37 p.m. EDT): GDX became a ‘mechanical’ short at 23.54, stop 24.27, on the opening bar, with a 21.34 price objective. Use ‘camouflage’ if you intend to board belatedly, since that would effectively tighten the stop.

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$GCM16 – June Gold (Last:1219.80)

EST

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$HDGE – Equity Bear ETF (Last:10.58)

EST

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:17,891)

EST

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$CLN16 – July Crude (Last:49.05)

EST

Crude's swingsJune Crude reversed sharply Thursday from within 16 cents of the 47.42 Hidden Pivot support I’d flagged here the night before as a good place to get long. Sounds easy, right. It wasn’t. The futures initially bounced from 46.45, three cents from my number, after plummeting $2 from the previous day’s highs. The close-but-no-cigar low left subscribers a penny or two shy of getting aboard, according to reports in the chat room. What happened next would have challenged bulls and bears alike: The futures relapsed to 47.26, 16 cents below my target and three cents below the stop-loss that had accompanied it; then they rocketed sharply higher, on their way to a so-far recovery peak at 49.13. Intraday histrionics aside, the bigger picture is going according to plan. I’ve been bullish, but with a 51.49 rally target that I regard as the upper limit of crude’s dead-cat bounce from lows near $27 in February. We shall see, but in any case we’ll attempt to short just above with as much caution as we can bring to the task. In the meantime, stick close to the chat room and my tout updates if you’re hot to trade this monster.

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$NUGT – Gold Miners 3X Bull (Last:72.50)

EST

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JYM16 – June Yen (Last:0.92102)

EST

Yen's timid demeanorA strong yen has put great strain on Japan’s export-driven economy this year. It has also made it even harder for the central bank to attempt to extricate the nation from the grip of a deflation that has persisted for more than two decades. Trying to stimulate exports all along, the banksters at times have seemed quite serious about pushing the yen lower, which lately has meant into negative territory. Now it appears they are going to give it another try. If so, they may finally have the wind at their backs technically speaking, since there’s evidence on the daily chart that the currency recently made a top of at least intermediate-term importance. Notice that the high of the move failed not only to reach a clear Hidden Pivot target at 0.95175, it also died a hair short of a key peak at 0.95100 recorded back in October 2014. This is the sort of timid price action from which we might infer that buyers are in need of rest. The picture would turn very bullish once again, however, if the 2014 peak were to be exceeded even by a tick. But until such time as that happens, we should simply sit back, observe and trade the minor moves, albeit with a bearish bias.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:95.33)

EST

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$TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:220.34)

EST

TSLA blasted freeTesla shares went bullishly nuts after the close when the company announced a small loss. Go figure. Sometimes we are fortunate not to possess insider information, since we’d probably do the wrong thing with it much of the time. Wall Street’s collective omniscience can usually be counted on to get it wrong, but how can we know what They are thinking in order to fade their bet? In our case, we put such concerns aside and used a 220.63 target sent out Tuesday night to get long pennies off the low of a $12 bear-trap selloff in the early going. The Street has no knowledge of our Hidden Pivot System, and that’s probably why it works so well. The Master of the Universe might get upset if they knew that it is Hidden Pivots, which sometimes coincide with Fibonacci levels, and not They who control the ups and downs of shares, even on the seemingly wildest days. TSLA rallied $23 today from the targeted low, but as is my practice, I’ll wait until I hear from at least two subscribers who took the trade before I establish a tracking position. ______ UPDATE (May 5, 8:56 p.m. ET): You can use the 206.45 target that I posted in the chat room as a minimum downside objective for now.  If it gives way, however, expect at least a little more slippage to 204.08.  Either number can be bottom-fished using ‘camouflage,’ provided you understand the technique. ______ UPDATE (May 9, 10:59 p.m.): The stock’s devastating slide halted a millimeter from the 206.41 target shown and one micron from the original one given above. Now, a decisive breach of the support, or a two-day close below it, would imply more carnage down to at least 174.94. That would represent a 35% decline from April’s giddy peak. _______ UPDATE (May 22, 1:30 a.m.): TSLA’s recovery from just below my 204.08 target took wing as last week ended and projects most immediately to 229.91 (see inset, a new chart). That’s a minor Hidden Pivot resistance, and it would become an odds-om bet if the stock pushes decisively past the midpoint pivot at 223.41.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$DUST – 3x Gold Miner Bear (Last:14.46)

EST

Further push by DUSTAs last week ended, DUST appeared all but certain to continue down to the 0.80 bear-market target shown. The pattern that produced it is ‘textbook’ beautiful and has been confirmed by the stock’s precise deference to the midpoint (p) and secondary (p2) Hidden Pivots.  Although ‘mechanical’ shorts from both of these levels were possible in theory, in actuality DUST failed by pennies to rally back up to them. Under the circumstances, only a ‘camouflage’ entry could have worked, and even then it would have required considerable diligence and rapt attention. Traders should note that if DUST is about to turn up from 0.80 as I expect, that would correspond to a top of at least short-term importance in the mining stocks. In any event, we’ll plan on bottom-fishing this brick with an 0.83 bid for 800 shares, stop 0.72, good till canceled. The theoretical risk here, including commissions, is about $100.  Options on this vehicle are sporting implied volatilities in the cosmos, with ridiculously wide spreads to boot, so I am strongly recommending against buying calls instead of stock. _______ UPDATE (May 5, 2:05 a.m.): The so-far 3-day rally looks mildly promising, but it would have to surpass April 14’s 2.51 peak to turn the daily chart bullishly impulsive. Even the ‘hourly’ would need to hit 2.06 to accomplish this._______ UPDATE (May 18, 10:29 a.m.): Here’s an interesting discussion of why 3x ETFs tend to fall to zero over the long haul. The discussion gets somewhat arcane and, amazingly, is inconclusive as to whether these vehicles actually decay. I side with the contango/decay trolls, although the author’s point, that there are far more potential negative outcomes than positive, at least partially explains why the zero axis is so strongly magnetic for 3x vehicles. This is all relates to my analysis of DUST, which has just reverse-split 10-to-1 because it was closing on zero.  Accordingly, I’ve substituted a new chart that adjusts the downside target from 0.80 to 8.00. I have absolutely no doubt that it will be reached, and that it will generate a precisely tradable bounce._______  UPDATE (11:10 p.m.): Wednesday’s ballistic rally was strongly impulsive on the hourly chart, but mining-share bears should wait for a further push above the two labeled peaks before breaking out the bubbly. If that should happens with no b-c pullback along the way, it would be very bullish indeed for DUST — and therefore bearish for mining shares. _______
UPDATE (May 22, 1:38 a.m.): Last Thursday’s rally to 16.96 was mildly impulsive and points to as high as 18.73 over the near term, provided p=16.40 is exceeded on Monday or Tuesday and 14.07 is not exceeded to the downside first.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:130.45)

EST

Long TLT consolidation not unusualI’m tracking 100 shares with a cost basis of 114.32 that reflects profits taken a while back on three quarters of the original position. The theoretical gain at these levels amounts to more than $1800, but we are shooting for significantly more than that and may augment the position if a juicy opportunity like the one that got us aboard in the first place should arise. TLT’s thrust past p=132.58 on Thursday (see inset) is encouraging, to say the least, since it opens up a path to 135.26 over the near term, and thence to 137.94. Traders can use p or p2 to get long ‘mechanically’, provided you understand the rules governing this type of trade. This is the kind of rally that is tailor-made for the ‘mechanical’ buy. ______ UPDATE (April 19, 8:36 p.m. ET): Let’s test the water with a bottom-fishing bid for 400 shares at 129.66. Use a 129.59 stop-loss. The relevant pattern is shown in the chart, a new one. _______ UPDATE (April 22, 2:25 a.m.): The downdraft of the last two days triggered the bid, then the stop, generating a theoretical loss of 0.28.  Imputing it to our tracking position of 100 shares effectively raises our cost basis to 114.60. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 7:57 p.m. ET): I’ve updated the chart with a longer-term perspective that shows TLT’s ups and down over the last several months as part of a bullish picture that portends much higher prices. Considering the size of the leap that appears to be in the offing, a lengthy consolidation period is to be expected.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.


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The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

Most important of all, Rick will teach you how to develop market instincts (aka “horse sense”) by observing the markets each day from the fixed vantage point that only a rigorously disciplined trading system can provide.

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