Wednesday, May 27     Published daily Receive trading 'touts' free
Topic of the Week

Why I’m Still Hot for T-Bonds

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What are the most pressing economic concerns of the day? I was asked for my opinion on this recently by SDR Future, which bills itself as “the first full SDR service for retail investors”. Here are the three questions they asked, along with my answers:

What are you currently noticing in the markets based on your experience and analysis?

Because my instincts have occasionally failed me at important turning points, I have come to rely increasingly on a proprietary forecasting system that I call the Hidden Pivot Method. It provides no basis at this time for asserting that a Mother of All Tops is imminent. However, my instincts are screaming otherwise, and so I split the difference, shorting every promising intermediate-term rally target that I am

Interesting time aheadable to identify. Right now, that means shorting the E-Mini S&Ps near 2138.50, a Hidden Pivot resistance of major degree that coincides with another of somewhat lesser degree at 2138.00. Together they imply [click to continue…]

Thought for Today

An Interesting Place for a Top

I’d drum-rolled major resistance in the E-Mini S&Ps at 2138.00, and although we were unable to get a short off at that price ahead of the three-day holiday, we should still monitor the decline closely in case it gets legs.  I’ve provided some precise benchmarks for judging the power of the selloff in today’s E-Mini S&P and DJIA touts, so check them out if you want to know which side — bull or bear — to root for.

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$DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:18041)

It would take an unocrrected plungeRefreshing as yesterday’s dive may have seemed, it failed to tip the big picture in favor of bears. They could take encouragement on a further decline surpassing 17733, but keep in mind that the move would need to be uncorrected on the hourly chart once the first external low, 17925, is breached. Regardless, because the recent top occurred near a major Hidden Pivot rally target (see today’s E-Mini S&P tout for further corroboration), we should remain open-minded to the possibility that a very significant decline is under way.

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$GCM15 – June Gold (Last:1186.80)

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$ESM15 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:)

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$DAL – Delta Airlines (Last:43.18)

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$GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:19.83)

External peak at 21.48The 21.48 peak labeled in the chart should be considered the Matterhorn for bulls. They’ve been slogging higher in fits and starts for the last two months, but without exceeding a single external peak on the daily chart. That’s why 21.48 is so important. If the next rally cycle pushes past it, also exceeding May 14’s ‘internal’ peak at 21.25, that would adrenalize the daily chart by creating a new, bullish impulse leg. An alternative possibility is that GDX is not quite ready for the push and will need to pull back first to 19.16, a Hidden Pivot midpoint (A=21.48 on 2/27) , for a running start. For now, we’ll watch and wait.

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$DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:)

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$USM15 – June T-Bonds (Last:154^05)

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:26.70)

Easy move through p and D would beGDXJ has been moving higher since since mid-March — reason enough for us to give bulls the benefit of the doubt for the time being.  Even so, we shouldn’t let our guard down, since it is only the portion of the rally that has occurred since May 7 that is bullishly impulsive on the daily chart. The pattern shown will therefore be crucial to our analysis. Specifically, if we are to infer that significantly higher prices are likely, the first evidence in support of this would come from a rally that pushes easily past the midpoint pivot and D target (shown in inset). Neither pivot exists at this point, so there is no point in getting too far ahead of ourselves. Stay tuned.

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$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:119.51)

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$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:93.68)

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$DHI – D.R. Horton (Last:25.27)

First crack in the dam xxCould this be the first crack in the dam? Homebuilder D.R. Horton’s shares have gotten schmeissed in the last two days (along with Lennar and Pulte Group), as the accompanying chart attests. Recall that the implosion of homebuilder stocks that began in the summer of 2005 led the stock market’s collapse by more than two years.  We ought to pay close attention in any case, since shorting the shares of Beazer, Horton, Lennar and other homebuilders back in 2005 was the best and easiest way to have profited from the Great Financial Crash. If this selloff is similar to the earlier one, it will give way to a secondary top achieved via a steep rally. For now, however, look for a short-term bottom at exactly 25.11. If this Hidden Pivot is easily exceeded, or if the stock closes below it for two consecutive days, it will be time to unfurl the yellow flag. _______ UPDATE (May 6, 11:26 p.m.): An opening-bar dive exceeded the 25.11 pivot by a whopping 17 cents. Even though the day ended on an upswing — a bullishly impulsive one on the lesser charts — the damage has been done. My immediate outlook is for more slippage to at least 24.41, a Hidden Pivot support (A= 28.97 on the 60-min chart on 4/21) that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 7 cents. Our goal would be to rack up some gains on a bullish trade that could cushion a stop-loss the next time we try to short this cinder block. _____ UPDATE (May 7, 11:24 p.m.): The stock rallied out of range yesterday.  Let’s wish buyers the best, since we’re looking to short this dead duck at the highest price possible.

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The laser-like accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

Most important of all, Rick will teach you how to develop market instincts (aka “horse sense”) by observing the markets each day from the fixed vantage point that only a rigorously disciplined trading system can provide.

The three-hour Hidden Pivot Course is offered live each month. If it’s more convenient, you can take it in recorded form at your leisure, as many times as you like. The course fee includes “live” trading sessions (as opposed to hypothetical ‘chalk-talk’) every Wednesday morning, access to hundreds of recorded hours of tutorial sessions, and access to an online library that will help you achieve black-belt mastery of Hidden Pivot trading techniques.

The next webinar will be held on Tuesday, July 7. Click below to register or get more information.

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