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The Morning Line

Hooves, Don’t Fail Me Now!

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The S&P 500 Index is closing on new record highs with such steadfast determination that the Almighty Himself probably couldn’t thwart the Big Event. Six straight quarters of declining earnings certainly didn’t do it, and that’s why bulls are probably bolder than ever at these airless heights.  We’ll treat the impending rally as we always do, looking to grab a ride to a promising Hidden Pivot target while preparing to get short — very tightly stopped — at same.

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$ESZ16 – December E-Mini S&P (Last:2165.25)

EST

es-target-falls-a-hair-shyThe futures haven’t come this far since September 12’s bombed out lows only to recede without hitting new record highs. However, the 2182.50 target shown would leave them a hair shy of that threshold. Expect a stall at that Hidden Pivot, but probably not much of one.  The ease with which buyers push past it will tell us how eager they are to keep chugging higher. For starters, I’d use 2197.75, a resistance that is likely to prove more challenging than the heavy supply zone created by six weeks of tedious chop in August and early September. Incidentally, are you watching AMZN, as I had suggested? No way this bull is going to die as long as the megaretailer’s shares are on a wilding spree.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$AMZN – Amazon (Last:829.19)

EST

amzns-rally-is-powerful-enoughI have bullish targets outstanding to as high as 871.11, but most immediately the stock will be bound for 833.90 if it can close for a second consecutive day above the red line. This projection is worthy of your attention because, as I noted here earlier, it is unlikely the stock market as a whole will be going down any time soon as long as Amazon, a key bellwether stock, is headed significantly higher. A pullback to p could conceivably set up a mechanical ‘buy’, stop 809.40, but only if the stock returns to p after having moved decisively above it, and stayed above it, for at least three consecutive days. This is a Hidden Pivot-based ‘mechanical’ trade, and I’d suggest tuning to the chat room in real time for guidance if the opportunity should ripen._______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 12:23 a.m. ET): Trade-desk lunatics and panic-stricken bears have inadvertently joined forces, pushing the stock toward my 833.90 target with meteoric force. The move has been tradable only at night, since most of AMZN’s upward progress has occurred via gap-up openings on nearly each and every day when the stock has moved higher.  If 833.90 unexpectedly gives way easily, there is a coincident hidden resistance at 834.02 that is derived from these coordinates on the hourly chart: A=771.00 (9/19); B= 807.75 (9/23); C=797.27.  The double target will act as a magnet until AMZN get there, then as a likely rally-stopper.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$SIZ16 – December Silver (Last:19.305)

EST

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$GCZ16 – December Gold (Last:1328.60)

EST

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$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.1230)

EST

glimmer-of-hope-for-snipfWith last week’s rally, SNIPF looks like it is trying to cheat death, technically speaking. The pattern shown offers a very compelling bear-market target at exactly 0.0764.  And yet, the stock rallied sharply last week on word than a big customer had re-upped with a $1.5 million advertising campaign. It didn’t hurt that Canaccord, which has been on the sell side all the way down, has evidently become a buyer — of 2.48 million shares, according to an officer of the company, Gary Singh. All things considered, however, I’m inclined to sit tight with the shares I currently own, and to augment the position only if SNIPF dips below 8 cents.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$+TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:137.10)

EST

tlt-which-tracks-t-bond-yieldsI’m tracking a 500-share, long-term position with a cost basis that has been reduced by profit-taking to 128.02. Pivoteers who follow this vehicle may have noticed the recent dip to a midpoint support at 133.44 on the long-term chart (see inset). In theory, according to the proprietary trading rules we follow, this made TLT a ‘mechanical’ buy at the red line, stop 127.25. Because I missed signaling the trade, however, we’ll have to wait for another entry opportunity. There will likely be plenty of time for this, since the theoretical mechanical fill at 133.44 implicitly re-acknowledged a longstanding bull-market target at 151.99. That’s sufficient reason to give us a bullish bias for any trades we initiate going forward — presumably with far less risk than the ‘mechanical’ entry tactic noted above. Our goal would be to augment our existing position. If the 151.99 Hidden Pivot target is achieved, it would correspond to a yield on the long bond of about 1.50%. It is currently yielding around 2.33%, and we can only surmise that so significant a drop would be concurrent with the U.S. economy’s slide into very deep recession.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$+SPY – S&P (Equity) (Last:213.37)

EST

mother-of-all-topsBased on reports from subscribers in the chat room who legged into the position detailed here last week, I am tracking the Oct 21 200 – 195 put spread eight times for a net credit of 0.37.  As is my custom, I use the worst fill reported, since I never want to be in the position of saying a Rick’s Picks recommendation made money in theory when my subscribers have failed to do so in practice. Nor do I ever want to overstate the profit on any trade, since results could vary significantly from one subscriber to the next. The position detailed above cannot lose money, however, and it will produce a gain of exactly $296 if SPY is trading 200 or higher come October 21, when the options expire. However, the gain would increase by $800 for each one-point drop below 200, to a maximum of $4296 at 195 or lower.  That would represent an additional fall of 8.7%, about two-and-a-half times the magnitude of SPY’s plunge last week from near-record highs.

Stay tuned for updates, since I will try to augment our short position, with risk as tightly controlled as possible, if the opportunity should arise. Essentially, this will entail buying out-of-the-money puts when SPY is close to a rally target, then turning the position into a vertical bear spread by shorting puts on any subsequent weakness. Our goal will be to short the puts for at least as much as we’ve paid for the ones we are long. The result would be a virtually riskless vertical bear spread similar to the tracking position noted above. This bull market feels to me like it’s on its last legs. However, we should never presume to be able to predict exactly when El Toro, however deservedly, will drop dead. Using strategies like the one above is the best way I know of to bet on the bull’s collapse and to make some bucks, even when we are wrong, while we wait for an event that is inevitable.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$GDX – Gold Miners ETF (Last:26.91)

EST

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USZ16 – Dec T-Bond (Last:165^14)

EST

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$TYX.X – 30-Year T-Bond Rate (Last:2.138)

EST

30-Year Bond Rate points much lowerSince early 2014, when 30-year T-Bonds were yielding close to 4%, Rick’s Picks has been confidently predicting rates would ultimately fall to at least 1.64%.  The technical basis for this forecast is shown in the accompanying chart (see inset). It went sharply against a consensus that includes nearly every economist, bankster and pundit who has been quoted on the subject. It has also flouted the publicly stated opinions of such heavyweights as Bill Gross, Paul Krugman, George Soros and some Federal Reserve governors.  Through it all, only someone with a deflationist perspective could have seen the relentless decline in rates that was yet to come. We doubt the inflationists will have learned much, however, since they still seem to be expecting long-term rates to reverse and start moving sharply higher “any day now.”  There are some exceptions, but even the few who disagree say rates are likely to “stay low” for a while, rather than continue to fall as we expect.

It’s easy to see why they have clung to this idea, since long-term rates have already fallen from a high of 15% in 1981 to a recent, record low of around 2.13%.  Simple arithmetic says that they cannot fall much farther. However, from an investment standpoint, because bond prices vary inversely with yields, and because long-term bonds are very leveraged to small changes in long-term rates, there remains substantial capital gains potential if the 30-year should hit 1.64%. We have made this point before many times — not only in Rick’s Picks, but in interviews available online with BBC’s Max Keiser, Kenneth Ameduri at CrushTheStreet, USA Watchdog’s Greg HunterThe Korelin Economic ReportBenzinga.com,  Urban Survival Network and Howe Street, to name a few.

From a technical standpoint based on the chart pattern shown,  the steep decline over the last two weeks has made the 1.639% target even more likely to be achieved. Moreover, because 2015’s powerful but relatively fleeting bounce in rates began almost precisely from the pink line, a ‘secondary Hidden Pivot’ support at 2.223%, odds are strong not only that 1.639% will represent an important bottom, but that the bottom will be precise.  With this week’s decisive breach of the 2.223%, the formerly supportive pivot has become resistance, implying it can be shorted ‘mechanically’ using our proprietary rules governing this type of entry. The opportunity would be at least a few weeks off, but as always, you can tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time. One final note: There is an additional downside target derived from pattern of even larger degree that suggests a bounce could also come from 1.683%. If this were to happen it would imply a possible final low at 0.624% (!) that would challenge even the hard-core deflationist to imagine what kind of economic disaster might accompany it.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$DB – Deutsche Bank (Last:12.75)

EST

Deutsche looks likeHard times have once again befallen Deutsche Bank, which played a key role in blowing the global mortgage bubble that popped eight years ago.  On Wednesday, the bank announced a $7 billion loss for Q3 and a dividend cut, sending shares plummeting by 6% on the NYSE.  The long-term chart (see inset) suggests the stock is likely to fall a further 68%, to at least 9.10, before the carnage ends. If that price is hit, it would represent a 94% decline from the record-high 158 recorded in 2007.

From a technical standpoint, using our proprietary Hidden Pivot Method, the stock tripped a ‘mechanical’ short to 9.10 in March at 34.38, stop 42.81.  Traders who are familiar with our forecasting system will notice in the chart that the target for Deutsche Bank’s bear market is minus $16.18.  Although this is a practical impossibility, we know from experience that it could imply that a bankruptcy lies down the road. That proved to be the case for Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns, whose charts similarly projected into negative territory prior to the Great Financial Crash of 2007-08.  Even if DB does not go to zero, we would rate the chances of a fall to at least 9.10 at around 70%._______ UPDATE (September 26, 9:28 a.m.) There’s chatter in the chat room this morning about Deutsche Bank, whose shares have been plumbing record lows recently. It was nearly a year ago, with the stock trading just below $30, that I projected in the tout above that the stock would fall to at least 9.10. That target still holds.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.


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The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

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