Thursday, May 7     Published daily Receive trading 'touts' free
Topic of the Week

Why Can’t Millennials Make Marriage Work?

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This week, rather than speculate on the magnitude and direction of the stock market’s next inscrutable lurch, let’s ponder a troubling opinion piece on marriage that appeared in the Asbury Park Press. The author, one Anthony D’Ambrosio, is a 29-year-old millennial whose despairing ruminations bore the headline Five Reasons We Can’t Handle Marriage Anymore. He would know. D’Ambrosio, who writes a regular column on relationships for the newspaper, was a married man himself until recently — to a woman he met in 2004 and whom he wed in 2012. So much for the supposed benefits of a long courtship. Here’s D’Ambrosio’s short list of reasons why millennials are unable forge lasting unions:

• Sex becomes almost non-existent.
• Finances cripple us.
• We’re more connected than ever – but also disconnected.
• Our desire for attention outweighs our desire to be loved.
• Social media just invited a few thousand people into bed with you.

Clearly, this is a guy who still has a lot of soul-searching to do — and maturing. One could also argue that he has missed an important clue by failing to consider why marriages used to work so much better. Men and woman shared a common sense of purpose and an unlimited vista of opportunities when the U.S. emerged from the Second World War. Today, it is just the opposite: Career options for young people are limited, if not to say bleak; and, men and women were not at war back then, nor were they burdened by a sexual revolution that has cast gender roles perhaps irretrievably into doubt.

And there are a hundred other good reasons. What say you, readers?

Thought for Today

A Crucial Juncture for Interest Rates and Homebuilders

There are some interesting things going on in the charts of some key vehicles tracked by Rick’s Picks. T-Bonds and TLT have both had horrific corrections but are approaching Hidden Pivot supports that could turn the tide. If the supports fail, however, it will be a long drop to the next. Could this be related to the homebuilder stocks and REITs that I panned last week during an impromptu technical analysis session?   (Click here to view this timely video.) The shares of D.R. Horton, for one, appear poised at the edge of a cliff.

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$ADM15 – Aussie Dollar (Last:0.7921)

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$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:125.80)

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$+CLM15 – June Crude (Last:60.82)

Crude oil thrust wouldThe 61.03 rally target I disseminated here last week caught Tuesday’s intraday high within 7 cents, allowing subscribers to exit long positions entirely, take a partial profit or get short. All three actions were reported in the chat room, and I tried to address them in an update. In brief, respectively: 1) If you exited a long position, treat yourself to a big night on the town, since your theoretical gain would have been as much as $1,280 per contract if you’d bought at 59.75 when the recommendation first appeared; 2) if you stayed long, you’ll be shooting most immediately for the 62.72 target shown. From the so-far high at 61.10, $1.62 of potential profit remained, assuming the target is reached. If you keep risk:reward constant at 1:3, that would imply a 54-cent trailing stop, tightened as the futures get closer to 62.72; and 3) if you shorted more than one contract from 61.03, I suggested in the chat room that you take a partial profit, since the subsequent pullback to 60.31 would have been worth $720 per contract. Consider exiting the remainder if the buyers generate a bullish impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Note: On the daily chart, the highest target I can project is 65.76. If you are planning to swing for this fence with a long position already held, the implied trailing stop would be 1.56, shrinking by one cent for every 3-cent move above 61.10.  _______ UPDATE (9:20 a.m.): If you were short and followed my advice, you would have stopped out the position for a profit at 4:35 p.m. Tuesday, when the futures touched 60.63.  If you remained long,  the futures have spent the last four hours head-butting — precisely — the 62.05 p2 of this very clear pattern on the 5-minute chart: A=58.78 yesterday; B= 61.10; C= 60.31. Immediate potential, if and when the futures get past it, is to D=62.63.
_______ UPDATE (11:43 a.m.):  Bullseye! The futures topped this morning at 62.53, then plummeted almost $2 in an hour to a so-far low at 60.63. You should be out of all longs — and short if you traded the rally target aggressively.

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$GCM15 – June Gold (Last:1194.00)

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$ESM15 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:2087.25)

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USM15 – June T-Bonds (Last:157^15)

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DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:95.19)

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:25.38)

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TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:125.95)

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$SIN15 – July Silver (Last:16.150)

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$DHI – D.R. Horton (Last:26.15)

First crack in the dam xxCould this be the first crack in the dam? Homebuilder D.R. Horton’s shares have gotten schmeissed in the last two days (along with Lennar and Pulte Group), as the accompanying chart attests. Recall that the implosion of homebuilder stocks that began in the summer of 2005 led the stock market’s collapse by more than two years.  We ought to pay close attention in any case, since shorting the shares of Beazer, Horton, Lennar and other homebuilders back in 2005 was the best and easiest way to have profited from the Great Financial Crash. If this selloff is similar to the earlier one, it will give way to a secondary top achieved via a steep rally. For now, however, look for a short-term bottom at exactly 25.11. If this Hidden Pivot is easily exceeded, or if the stock closes below it for two consecutive days, it will be time to unfurl the yellow flag.

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The laser-like accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts are well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

Most important of all, Rick will teach you how to develop market instincts (aka “horse sense”) by observing the markets each day from the fixed vantage point that only a rigorously disciplined trading system can provide.

The three-hour Hidden Pivot Course is offered live each month. If it’s more convenient, you can take it in recorded form at your leisure, as many times as you like. The course fee includes “live” trading sessions (as opposed to hypothetical ‘chalk-talk’) every Wednesday morning, access to hundreds of recorded hours of tutorial sessions, and access to an online library that will help you achieve black-belt mastery of Hidden Pivot trading techniques.

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