Like George Bush before him, Barack Obama unfurled a “Mission Accomplished!” banner last week that can only come back to haunt him. To assert, as Obama did, that the Obamacare debate is settled is to flout hard truths that are negatively impacting the lives of virtually every American each and every day, hitting them literally where they live. Although the overweening arrogance of the man has undoubtedly blinded him to the risks of such hubris, Democrats running for their political lives in November can smell the impending disaster like a dead skunk a mile down the road. Not that Obamacare isn’t a disaster already – only that the looming catastrophe will make the ‘Affordable’ Care Act snafus to date seem mild in comparison. » Read the full article
Let me repeat this: The crisis in Ukraine isn’t even a blip on Wall Street’s radar. What does Morgan Stanley’s trading desk care if Putin annexes all of Ukraine? The crisis is just an annoyance, as far as U.S. hedge funds and portfolio managers are concerned, and most Americans — i.e., Jerry Springer idiots who can’t even name America’s first three Presidents or locate Tennessee on a map — simply don’t care. Even if there were something the U.S. or Europe could do about it, does anyone actually think Obama — or Merkel — would try? For his part, Putin probably thinks, and not without good reason, that he could annex Germany at this point without a shot being fired. Gold bugs seem to be hoping that civil war in Ukraine will drive bullion quotes higher. Get real! The last time the sociopaths, paper-shufflers and bunko men of the investment world even pretended to care about geopolitical news was in 1968, when Russia invaded Czechoslovakia. These days, Wall Street is bound to shrug off any crisis short of nuclear war, then return to its sordid business-as-usual as soon as the story drops off the front page.
Occasionally there are trade set-ups so perfect that you feel like they can’t miss. That was the case in Silver futures yesterday, when the ABC-type correction (see inset) bounced from a ‘Hidden Pivot’ support as pretty as they come. The trading ‘tout’ I sent out the night before anticipated the bounce very precisely — so precisely, in fact, that I’d suggested getting long with a 19.335 bid and a stop-loss just three ticks below it (equivalent to 1.5 cents). In the actual event, the futures fell to 19.325, two ticks beneath the bid, ensuring that anyone who followed my tout exactly would have gotten filled on the order. The May contract then trampolined 48 cents higher overnight. If you’d bought as advised and cashed out at the top, your gain would have been $2400 per contract. The 19.320 stop-loss would have subjected you to initial theoretical risk of just $75. (I say ‘theoretical’ because one cannot always bail out of a position on the terms one desires. That is one of the risks of the game.)
Commodity trading can be risky, of course, and there are no assurances that future trades offered here will work out as well as this one. Could you have done the trade yourself? Here are my verbatim instructions: “Yesterday’s dive to 19.220 found support just above January’s 19.030 low, but the subsequent bounce is as yet insufficient for us to conclude that the worst is behind. The very lesser charts would turn short-term bullish today on a print at 19.675, but anything shy of that should be regarded as shorting opportunity. All that aside, night owls could attempt bottom-fishing at p=19.335 with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks (see inset, a new chart).”
So confident was I in this trade that I also spotlighted in the Rick’s Picks Today’s Action box, as follows: “One might as well flip a coin to determine where stocks will head tomorrow, since they appear to be in the throes of delerium. Somewhat less difficult to predict is May Silver, however. If you trade this vehicle, especially at night, be sure to check out the update to my tout, since the chart includes a precise price where one might attempt bottom-fishing with the tightest of stops. Don’t subscribe? Click here for a free peek — no credit card necessary.”
Would you like to receive alerts when similar opportunities occur in the future? If so, simply click on the link immediately above to gain free trial access to my touts and a 24/7 chat room that draws experienced traders from around the world. Want to learn more about the Hidden Pivot Method and ‘Camouflage’ Trading? Click here.
We don’t pay much attention to this vehicle other than at key turning points, but the short-term pattern shown looks like a lay-up for traders who see futures contracts as no more than bouncing dots on a chart, waiting to be exploited. There are actually two trade possibilities here: 1) a ‘camouflage’ short as USM slips below the 132^13 midpoint; 2) and a very tightly stopped long from within a tick or two of the 131^17 target. Good luck! Please report any fills in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (3:17 p.m. ET): The short was tricky to initiate, but once aboard, your reward came quickly with a drop to a so-far low at 131^26. As noted above, the short should be covered and reversed near 131^17. ______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:57 p.m.): The low of Friday’s violent price swings was 131^21 — not quite close enough to have gotten you long easily. Although this could prove to be an important low for the short- to intermediate term, under the circumstances I’ll assume no subscribers were filled. _______ UPDATE (April 11, 1:03 a.m.): Next important stop on the way higher: 135^17.