Tuesday, April 21     Published daily Receive trading 'touts' free
Topic of the Week

Why Greece Will Stay Put

3 comments

Greece’s financial problems evidently were weighing on investors’ fevered brains on Friday. Grexit hysteria, which resurfaces every couple of months like a stubborn rash, was thought by some to have triggered a global selloff in stocks that saw the Dow Industrials fall by 1.54% and Germany’s DAX plunge even harder, suffering a 2.58% decline. Don’t they ever learn? First of all, no matter what you read, Greece will not be leaving the EU any time soon. That’s because the consequences are not only unpredictable, but potentially catastrophic. Despite attempts by the spinmeisters and their news media lackeys to convince us that the impact of cutting Greece loose from the eurozone would have but a minor impact on Europe’s economy, we know better. We’ve already seen how the bookkeeping problems of an obscure bank in Cyprus nearly toppled the global financial system. It’s a house of cards, as the banksters well understand, and that’s why the EU is unlikely to kiss off Greece, its puny economy and rinky-dink banks.

Shortening Athens’ Leash

Also, no matter how deeply Greek’s socialist government and the rabble that voted it into power dig in their heels to resist “austerity,” Greeks would starve if they had to pay in drachmas for what they consume. That is why they will do whatever it takes to keep on borrowing. And while we’re on the subject of austerity, let’s be clear about one thing: It was not imposed on Greece by creditor nations, but by the fact that Greece is broke and no one wants to lend them more money. They will, though, and soon, since letting Greece fend for itself would be too dangerous an experiment for an enterprise as shaky and irresolute as the European Union. More likely, we shall soon be reading about how EU banks, while continuing to lend to Greece, have put Athens on a very short leash, tightening controls on the movement of capital out of the country. In the meantime, investors can rest assured: the banksters will continue to lend, and the silly game will go on.

Thought for Today

Bull Hoax Due for a Breather

Stocks recouped Friday’ s losses a little too easily yesterday, raising the possibility that the main source of buying — i.e., short-covering bears — is too spent to push stocks significantly higher in the days ahead. New record highs are coming, that much appears likely. But look first for a week or two of delays while investors do their best to pretend weak Q1 earnings don’t matter. They’re right, of course, since it has been the Fed all along, through myriad proxies, that has been the main driver of higher share prices.

Rick's Picks
$ = Actionable Advice + = Open Position
Hidden Pivot Calculator   Education Page
All Picks By Issue:

Touts

$AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:127.59)

Rick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page

$CLM15 – June Crude (Last:57.69)

Rick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page

ESM15 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:2093.50)

Rick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page

$GCM15 – June Gold (Last:1195.30)

Gold struggles to moveGold, now well into year four of a bear market, continued its familiar pattern on Monday: one step up, two steps back. My long-term correction target remains $810, although I’ll always keep an open mind about trading from the long side, or even initiating a long-term bet, whenever gold is merely creating bullish impulse legs on the hourly chart. For perspective, however, it would take a run-up to 1347, nearly 13% above these levels, to turn the weekly chart unambiguously bullish. More immediately, the June contract has come down to within inches of an 1188.50 midpoint support associated with a D target at 1168.00. If gold’s behavior in the days ahead is typical, however, bears will struggle to push it lower almost as hard as bulls struggle to keep it buoyant. Then, when it appears they’ve succeeded and are pushing for extra yards, the futures will turn higher, encouraging false hopes as they rise toward yet another middling rally target that will remain just out of reach.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:18034)

Rick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page

$DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:97.66)

If the dollar is about to surgeOscillating lazily between 96 and 100, the dollar has been consolidating gains racked up over an eight-month period. The rally, which began last July, saw this vehicle rise by 25%, to a recent high just above 100.  Is it recharged for another huge leap?  My gut feeling, looking at the daily chart, is that at least another week or two of corrective action is needed to set the stage for a strong resurgence. Even so, if we are tuned to the lesser charts, looking for the very first sign of this, it would come with a print on Friday at 97.97 (see chart). Then, if the rally were to continue, pushing past p=98.65, that would strengthen the case. FYI, my long-term forecast calls for a powerful move, over several years, to highs near 120 that were recorded nearly 15 years ago.  If and when that occurs it will be a very different world — one in which, presumably, deflation has triumphed ruinously.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$CLK15 – May Crude (Last:56.47)

Crude wasn't giving up much groundCrude’s correction unfolded more or less as expected, producing a C-D follow-through rally that has stalled so far precisely at 53.09, a midpoint Hidden Pivot associated with a D target at 56.11. The futures would become an odds-on bet to reach that target if and when they push decisively above the midpoint resistance.  Traders can use a ‘mechanical buy’ to get long on a pullback to 53.09 once the futures have surpassed that number by 0.70 to 1.50. A 52.08 stop-loss would apply. The implied $1000 risk per contract can be pared down to as little as $40-$60 theoretical by using the ‘camouflage’ technique on a pattern of lesser degree. I’ve labeled one such pattern with purple ABC coordinates. It has already tripped an entry signal at 52.27 that can be viewed and exploited on a ‘camo’ chart of perhaps 3-minute degree. _____ UPDATE (April 16, 2:08 a.m.): I put out a real-time trade in the chat room yesterday that worked nicely. Check the posts around 11:48 a.m. and join us in the room if this sort of gambit interests you. _______ UPDATE (April 16, 12:42 a.m.): A 56.10 rally target that I disseminated in the chat room yesterday morning held bulls at bay for all of 45 minutes before the futures spiked to 56.69 to complete the impulse leg. The C-D follow-through could reach 58.91 if whatever the heck was pushing crude yesterday continues to obtain. The major impediment, short-term,  is a midpoint pivot at 57.37, but if and when it gets exceeded by perhaps  50 cents, a run-up to 58.91 would become no worse than an even-odds bet.

This is a free forecast (Tout) by Rick. Get a free trial of Rick’s Picks to see full member content.

$TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:131.42)

Rick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page

$+SNIPF – Snipp Interactive (Last:0.62)

Rick’s Picks Member-only content. Please Login (in Right Column)You must have a current Rick’s Picks Subscription to view this page



Login



Start subscription
Lost my password

Seminar Information page.

The laser-like accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts are well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

Another secret Rick will share with you, “camouflage trading,” takes more time to master, but once you get the hang of it trading will never be the same. The technique entails identifying ultra-low-risk trade set-ups on, say, the one-minute bar chart, and then initiating trades in places where competition tends to be thin.

Most important of all, Rick will teach you how to develop market instincts (aka “horse sense”) by observing the markets each day from the fixed vantage point that only a rigorously disciplined trading system can provide.

The three-hour Hidden Pivot Course is offered live each month. If it’s more convenient, you can take it in recorded form at your leisure, as many times as you like. The course fee includes “live” trading sessions (as opposed to hypothetical ‘chalk-talk’) every Wednesday morning, access to hundreds of recorded hours of tutorial sessions, and access to an online library that will help you achieve black-belt mastery of Hidden Pivot trading techniques.

The next webinar will be held on Tuesday, April 21. Click below to register or get more information.

Knowledge Base Link

Rick’s short takes

An introduction to the Hidden Pivot Method

This 9-minute video explains Rick's trading and forcasting method.

Other video Tutorials

How to set up a "Jackpot Trade" using expiring options

Rick's Picks Calendar