E-Mini NASDAQ

The chart shows yet one more reason to think the stock market is at a potentially important top.  This is a somewhat different view from the one featured here earlier, which used a lower point 'A' to project a major top at the pattern's p2 'secondary pivot'. The new graph seems more logical in retrospect, since it captures a potential top at a 'D target rather than at a secondary resistance.  As to getting short at these levels using the futures contract, we'd have suffered three weeks of Chinese water torture, since the March contract first got close enough to D to tempt a short on December 8.  The rally that followed a sharp pullback from there would have spooked most bears out of their positions, but anyone bold enough to stay the course would have suffered a seven-day flogging from head-butting at the 'hidden' resistance.  Better to draw a bead on some way-out-of-the-money put butterfly spreads in QQQ as we have done than to have this sonofabitch ratchet another 200-300 points against us while it disembowels the very last, hardiest bears. ______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 5:49 p.m.): Unlike its QQQ sibling, this lunatic bait did not merely poke above a clear Hidden Pivot target at 12741, it punched well past it and then closed near the intraday high. This is ugly and unnecessary from a bear's perspective and will require shifting our minimum target to 13555 by lowering point 'A' a skoch. We can still hope, nonetheless, and however briefly, that the futures suffer a massive coronary at p2=12829, the pink line in the chart that has so far contained today's rally. _______ UPDATE (Dec 29, 743 p.m.): A two-day close above p2=12829 would meet our standards for a bullish breakout. Let's see if the keister bandits who run

The bullish pattern shown does not square up with the charts of other indices, since last week's high in this vehicle did not reach its 'D' target. However, we can consider NQ as predictively aligned with the others, since it is hardly unusual for rallies to fail at the p2 'secondary pivot.' This holds true even for long-term trends, even bull markets.  I have not advised shorting this vehicle as I did its QQQ cousin, however, because p2 tops are not often definitive, but also because intraday price movement in NQ has been too nerve-wracking to flirt with other than by way of relatively labor-intensive rABC set-ups.  Stay tuned nonetheless, since an easy opportunity could open up. ______ UPDATE (Dec 22, 8:40 p.m.): Shorting QQQ still looks less stressful, but if you trade futures only, give me a shout in the chat room and I will attempt to provide timely guidance.

The ascent toward a 12,741 target [please note that this has been corrected to correspond to the chart] has been a tortuous, ten-week slog ever since the futures tripped a theoretical buy signal eleven weeks ago at 11172. We've had a couple of 'mechanical' winners along the way, but last week's high just shy of the target suggests the pattern's usefulness is spent. The actual high at 12677 missed by 64 points, or 0.5%, and although the target is still valid in theory, its only practical value for us now is that a decisive breach would suggest buyers have sufficient energy for a further push into new-record territory. Most immediately, we should be especially cautious, since it's conceivable that an important top is in.

Friday's afternoon's histrionics triggered a 'mechanical' short at 9721.50 that has left a 9338.25 target in play well below these levels. (Please note that the equivalent target for the September contract is 9327.50.] Although the futures got socked on the opening bar Sunday night, this was just the usual sleazy ploy to exhaust sellers, the better to run NQ back up their old wazoo.  If they return in droves for a second wave of selling before dawn, however, DaBoyz may need to take this vehicle down to the D target flagged above to set-up the next short-squeeze.  None of this will have much bearing on the very bullish target at 10571 billboarded here earlier.

I sometimes joke that virtually every trading vehicle, in every time frame, whether trending up or down, reverses from p2, the secondary pivot, virtually every time. Or so it would seem. I was never really a p2 kind of guy, but my mentor, Ira Tunik, used it so often, and persuaded so many Rick's Picks subscribers that it was important, that I eventually started to pay attention. That's when I began to see that it actually does repel trends almost as consistently as my beloved 'p' midpoint Hidden Pivot. It has also become clearer recently that some of the most successful traders in the room have been using p2 to set up rABC trades that deliver as consistently as a loose slot machine in a Reno bust-out joint. All of which is intended to call attention to the chart shown in the inset, a weekly graph of the E-Mini Nasdaq futures. This lunatic-powered vehicle comprises an invincible core of no-decision stocks that institutional holders would never even consider selling. That is why it is spitting fire at the moment, just inches from record highs. Notice as well that Wednesday's peak, which put a new high on the bounce from March's Mindanao abyss, occurred almost precisely at p2=9585. I wouldn't want to put ideas in your head, but there are worse places to attempt getting short.  Just sayin'. We can use puts in $NDX, so stay tuned to the chat room for timely ideas -- or make sure you've enabled 'Updates' on your account page. The caveat here is that buyers shredded the 8600.00 midpoint pivot the first time they encountered it on the way up. This made it likely that D=10,571 will be reached. As you can see, it sits well above the current record high at  9763.00.  I can't

Apple’s $12 plunge after the close has caused the E-Mini Nasdaq to shed 55 points so far Tuesday night. The selloff did significant damage to AAPL’s long-term chart, for reasons that I discussed speculatively here earlier. However, the weakness still looks merely corrective for the Nasdaq 100 relative to the spectacular run-up that occurred during the last two weeks. The divergence can’t last, and my hunch is that it will be resolved to the downside. Not that Google, Netflix, Amazon and a few other world-beaters in the Naz lineup are about to enter a slump. Rather, it is case of pie-in-the-sky expectations being tempered to take into account that the biggest stock of them all, AAPL, is no longer an analyst’s wet dream. Look for the futures to retrace at least 0.618 of July’s steep rally. That would bring them down to 4467, my minimum downside expectation for the near-term. Any lower would raise the odds that the 4686 record high achieved on Monday was an important one. _______ UPDATE (July 26, 6:00 p.m. EDT): As you can see in the new chart, Friday's low was a dead-center bullseye relative to the 4544.50 correction target. It took a week for this pattern to run its course, and we should therefore expect the bounce that began Friday afternoon to go for at least a day or two before sputtering out. This implies that although our bias should be bullish as the week begins, the more important objective will be to get short near the top of this presumptive bounce. _______ UPDATE (July 27, 9:49 a.m.): A relapse beneath Friday's low has put the futures on course for a tradable low at 4497.50, or 4474.00 if any lower.

The 'Naz' is holding up slightly better than the S&Ps, but the E-Mini NQ would need to vault the two labeled peaks to turn the hourly chart bullish again. If bulls can't summon the energy today to accomplish this, look for the futures to continue their fall to at least 4010.75, the Hidden Pivot target shown. If this happens straightforwardly (i.e., without too much chop), plan on bottom-fishing at the target with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. Night owls can also look for an abcd set-up to get short for the implied ride south. _____ UPDATE: Our bottom-fishing plan was a non-starter, since the futures went no lower than 4033.00 before a short-squeeze took them sharply higher (most immediately, toward a Hidden Pivot resistance at 4108.50).  ______ UPDATE (September 29, 1:46 a.m.): Price action turned nasty last week. This vehicle remains tradable nonetheless, but I'd prefer to watch from the sidelines for now. Most immediately, I'll be interested to see how well bulls use the pattern shown to advance. If you're trading this vehicle, please query me in the chat room when we have more information at our disposal.

The 3960.50 rally target shown is equivalent to the one at 1987.25 flagged in tonight's E-Mini S&P tout.  Because the Naz is trading in record-high territory, however, there are no 'hooks' for camouflage trading in the form of external peaks to the left. The target looks like a good one nonetheless, and it can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. If you fill the order please let me know in the chat room so that I can establish a tracking position for your further guidance. ______ UPDATE (July 24, 5:33 p.m. EDT):  The futures have overshot the target by about 30 points. This has bullish implications going forward, but for now this vehicle is in correction mode.  The top will become more significant if corrective abc patterns of minor degree start overshooting their targets.

All of the high-fliers except Apple gained altitude yesterday. Are we perhaps witnessing the booster stage of a sharp rebound in the Nasdaq Index?  I'd say no, at least not yet, based on the chart shown. My hunch is that more corrective action is needed -- another 5-7 days or more before the Naz is ready to run. However, if bulls are able to hold this vehicle for two consecutive days above the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 3587.25, it would imply that a run-up to the old highs is imminent. That would energize the broad averages, propelling the Dow Industrials and the S&Ps toward new highs of their own.