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THE MORNING LINE
Friday felt like a Pearl Harbor attack on Wall Street. Since when did a Thanksgiving Friday fill investors with dread and fear? The day was supposed to have passed quietly, with second-string prop desks locked on a glide path into what remained of the four-day holiday. Instead, the Dow plunged by 900 points, closing near the low of the day after a couple of failed rally attempts while the ‘value’-weighted Russell index fell by nearly 4%. One might have inferred the markets were finally rebelling against all of the arrant falsehoods that have pumped them full of unnatural vigor, especially over the last year-and-a-half as the global economy has tottered. Everything was topsy-turvy as the week ended: T-bonds were screaming, the FAANGs so beloved of portfolio managers were getting pulped, and bitcoin, the speculative Porfirio Rubirosa of this era, was immersed in molten hell. A more than $3,000 decline threatened to become the beginning of a crypto bust.
Hold the Bubbly!
A few of my colleagues had predicted a major top about where it occurred. Peter Eliades got closest with a magic number for the E-Mini S&Ps that caught the high within a point. My own projection missed by 20 points, or less than half a percentage point — close enough for an honorable mention. That was until I had a closer look at AAPL’s chart. The stock got hit hard, down almost 3%, but there is no escaping the fact that if it were to fall a further 5%, to 146, it would become an even better ‘buy’, according to the rules of my Hidden Pivot Trading System. Since AAPL more than any other stocks reflects the zeitgeist of portfolio managers, not to mention their greed, hubris and stupidity, we shouldn’t be too hasty in assuming that Friday’s carnage will mark the beginning of the end of the stock market’s nearly 13-year bull run. But I wouldn’t given up on the idea entirely, since AAPL’s stall occurred in a potentially perilous place. Specifically, the rally failed precisely at the ‘secondary’ pivot of a major rally pattern, as the chart shows. This will subject AAPL to the jeopardy of Matt’s Curse, implying it could fall below $103 instead of rallying to $188 as might be expected in the absence of voodoo technicals. We shall see, but the ‘mechanical buy’ in AAPL will remain valid in any event, as will the bullish implications this would have for the stock market.
Elsewhere on the page, I’ve compared Friday’s dramatic plunge to Japan’s sneak attack on Pearl Harbor. Thanksgiving Friday was supposed to be a quiet day on Wall Street, but it looked more like the possible start of the bear market we’ve long expected. The selloff generated a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart, although it did no damage whatsoever to the weekly. We’ll keep that in mind lest permabear hubris dull our judgment in the weeks ahead. It would not be unusual for a major trend change to occur after the trend has fallen shy of an important Hidden
The ‘not exactly bearish’ T-Bond chart featured in last week’s commentary was intended to make the point that the usual eggheads, pundits and nearly all forecasters have had bonds figured wrong for quite some time. They should be even more embarrassed and mystified by Friday’s spectacular rally, which made the daily chart look still less bearish (while paying off pass-line bettors with a quick, ‘mechanically’ earned $11,000). The same yo-yos have attempted to cover their tracks with talk about how bonds are moving higher because of a global ‘flight to safety’. But where, we should ask, was such talk back
Gold’s squirrelly histrionics have become too tiresome to deserve our close attention, but we can still use the excellent, gnarly pattern shown to exploit any price action that plays to our game. For starters, a fall to p2=1700.80 could be bought ‘mechanically’, provided you know how to set-up a ‘camouflage’ trigger that would reduce the nearly $30k of entry risk on four contracts by perhaps 95%. Nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time if you care and I will show you how. (Here’s the equivalent pattern for Feb Gold, where p2=1702.60 and D=1629.00.) Notice that a ‘mechanical’
The dollar came down hard on Friday when the egregiously overrated ‘Omicron’ variant of Covid-19 seemed to provide hope to dollar bears that the U.S economy would soon reverse course and slip into depression. They might get their wish about the depression, since the price of just about everything has risen to levels where most middle class Americans are starting to throttle back on purchases, especially of cars, houses and appliances that are essential to fueling debt-based ‘prosperity’. We would still caution against betting on the buck’s demise, since it speared the 96.09 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the pattern
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