Rick Ackerman

America is in the eye of the storm, hunkering down for what Mr. Trump promises will be a "very painful two weeks." Some may have gotten the impression that the economic pain could begin to ease then, but he was talking about the death toll and the rising count of infections. No one can say how long the economic fallout will continue, but the most optimistic estimate I've seen suggests the nation will lose perhaps a quarter year's production. If so, that seems manageable, especially when you add in the Fed's $2Tr rescue package and stepped-up unemployment benefits that in most cases will equal lost pay.  Fear seems to have ebbed from the stop market in the meantime, even if there is insufficient enthusiasm at the moment to push stocks into a sustained rally.

Since triggering a profitable 'mechanical' trade Sunday night, the futures have been unable to extend the rally even to the secondary Hidden Pivot at 2687, much less the pattern's D target at 2781. Panic selling and buying have ebbed, leaving the playing field to traders who have found interesting ways to pass the time until the pandemic story mutates in some significant way, for better or worse.  Swings of 50-100 points have become routine, and the only worrisome thing about this is that worry has been replaced by, if not complacency, then a tense kind of boredom. For our purposes, although the D target remains theoretically viable, trades in either direction are best orchestrated on the lesser charts where swings of perhaps 10-15 points occur all day long.

June Gold's steep dive appears bound for the 1561.20 target shown in the chart. The pattern is a good one, and even a little gnarly, implying that a tradeable bounce from very near the target is likely. Your trading bias should be bearish until such time as 1561.20 is reached, but bottom-fishing will be at your discretion. If this Hidden Pivot support is easily exceeded, it would suggest still-lower prices are coming, possibly a test of round-number support near 1500. Tune to the chat-room for entry set-ups in real time that could conceivably hold entry risk down._______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 9:09 a.m. EDT): The futures are up $28 at the moment, trading at 1619.40, and would negate the bearish target if they touch 1629.50. It would also put in play a rally target at p=1679.20 (60-min, A= 1491.70 on 3/23 at 3:00 a.m.). _______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 11:22 p.m.): The futures appear to be consolidating Thursday night for a run at 1679.20. Here's the chart.

There are no little guys left in the market, so institutional investors can push stocks wherever they please.  There were a dozen good reasons for the Dow to have fallen by 2000 points on Monday, considering how grim the pandemic news was over the weekend.  Instead, the Dow rose nearly 700 points, controlled by Masters of the Universe  who are intent on distributing as much stock they can into short-covering rallies. This one looks bound for 2781.50, subject to a possible stall at 2687, the secondary pivot. The mechanical trade that was exited for a big paper profit on Monday is performing better than expected, since I'd thought the futures would get no farther than the red line. Keep that in mind the next time I signal a similar trade.

The bullion bankers' fright-mask tactics should have scared no one, since gold futures are obviously consolidating near the high end of March's astounding $250 swoon. My minimum upside objective is 1751.70, the secondary Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown, but any higher would portend more price expansion to at least 1852.00. I waxed skeptical here earlier that this rally could hit $2000, but because the demand for physical has begun to overwhelm supply, I am more optimistic that the move could get legs beyond my target.

DIA has been struggling too hard to get past a midpoint resistance at 221.11 to suggest it's on its way to the 236.90 'D' target of the pattern shown. Although there's a good chance last Thursday's high at 225.87 will prove to be an important top, I'll hold off on shorting strategies until this vehicle  catches up with index futures Monday morning. While I've put out a paper-trade in ES that called for buying this evening's opening at 2459.00, this advice does not apply to the Diamonds because they trade only during U.S. daytime hours and have traced out a less bullish pattern. Of course, the two vehicles cannot go their separate ways, but it's possible the E-Mini S&Ps can fulfill their rally target outside of regular hours. ______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:10 p.m. EDT): The Indoos have spent four days screwing the pooch near p=221.11, but today's close above this pivot implies minimum upside over the near term to at least p2=229.01. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 7:22 p.m.):  Zzzzzzzzz. No change even though DIA closed below the midpoint Hidden Pivot today.

Over the weekend, we learned enough about the virus to understand why things won't be trending even remotely back to normal by Easter, as some may have hoped. Grave uncertainties will remain for possibly much longer, including whether spring break will turn out to be a devastating vector of contagion. In early January, a friend's son, big (6'3"), strong and healthy, was among the first Americans to get what turned out to be coronavirus. He is a math student at a top university in Boston, and this was shortly after many of his Asian classmates returned to the U.S. after visiting their families over Christmas. Initially he experienced a sore throat and a 105 fever. Doctors were not looking for Covid-19 back then, and so it took ten days for them to order up a scan that revealed viral pneumonia. Thirty days later, he had not completely recovered, although the most debilitating symptoms had abated. He might just as easily have died. His mother, who lives in South Florida, is asthmatic and remains in a very strict state of self-quarantine. She does not leave her home for any reason, receives no callers, and scrupulously sanitizes any food or packages left at her door. An interesting side note is that the son had developed an algorithm for predicting the markets. When it went haywire just ahead of the signal plunge on Monday, February 24, he advised his mother and 95-year-old grandfather to sell everything. They did so, on Friday, February 21, sidestepping the market's collapse. Dow Headed Below 10,000 At Rick's Picks, we continue to observe the pandemic's effects mainly in the way it is affecting shares and commodities. Our analytical tools are purely technical, and they have proven useful in making tradeable sense of the violent price swings that have

I expect index futures to open lock-limit lower Sunday evening, but if it's not quite that bad, the 'mechanical' paper-trade I recommended earlier could be in effect.  Specifically, it implies bidding 2496 for four contracts, with a stop-loss at 2402 that is just beneath the point 'C' low of the pattern shown (inset).  I'll be interested myself to see whether the 'mechanical'-trade idea holds -- i.e., that this type of trade works best when price swings are at their most violent. In this instance, once the contracts are acquired they would be subject to a 2590 price objective, o-c-o with the 2402 stop. Theoretical risk is $4700 per contract.  The trade would not  trigger if the opening is beneath 2402.  A 5%-limit, gap-down opening would occur at 2394, just beneath the specified range of my guidance. Most immediately, expect more slippage to at least p=2156.00 (daily chart, A=3131.00 on 3/3) if Friday's selloff continues as I expect.  No matter what happens, I see much lower lows in the weeks ahead. That makes all rallies enticing shorts, although, as we've seen, this has been most difficult to pull off. _______ UPDATE (8:19 p.m. EDT): The bid filled at 2459.00, the price at which the futures opened Sunday evening. (Remember, this is a paper trade intended to familiarize you with 'mechanical' set-ups.) We are offering four contracts to close at 2590 with an o-c-o stop-loss at 2400.00. ______ UPDATE (Mar 30, 8:17 a.m.): I am exiting the position now with the futures  trading at 2543.  The theoretical gain is around $4100 per contract.  Strictly speaking, applying a 'dynamic trailing stop' (which I've explained in the Trading Room), I'd have closed out the trade at 2559, reaping a further gain of $800. In this case, I am following my gut rather than strictly

The chart shows a 2778 rally target that would represent a nearly exact 50% retracement of losses sustained at the low of last week's crash. At that price the S&Ps would be trading a mere 18% from the record-high 3398 achieved on February 20. Does anyone actually believe that a stock market that was pumped full of gas to begin with will have properly discounted the global recession-or-worse that is coming at that level? Surely not, and that's why this bounce, spectacular though it's been, is doomed to fail.  Looking just ahead, getting short at the 50% mark seems too obvious a strategy to succeed, so we'll be looking for alternative ways to lay 'em out at the appropriate time. Denizens in the Rick's Picks trading room have been diligently monitoring this vehicle anyway, and trading the heck out of its thrusts, dives and swoons. For now, use p2=2684 as a minimum upside objective and stay close to the Trading Room for intraday adjustments.