Rick Ackerman

The daily chart remains unmistakably bullish, but this correction, which is about to enter its third month, continues to try our patience. For the moment, the futures are under the spell of 'Matt's curse,' which holds that a trend reversal precisely from p2 is likely to exceed 'C', stopping out the pattern (see inset). So far, December Gold has bounced weakly from p2 twice without exceeding 'C'.  This is a punk performance, for sure, but it's no reason to bet against bulls and a possible rally to as high as 1525.90 (a=1467.90 on 10/1) this week. If the futures should relapse, though, brace for a fall to 1458.70 (60m, A= 1522.30 on 10/0), or 1450.50 (A=1540.30 on 9/25) if any lower.

(Note: Rick's puts out at least two fresh commentaries each week, usually on Mondays and Thursdays.) The odds of a Trump victory in 2020 may have reached a tipping point last week, even if few will have noticed.  One influential conservative columnist who did notice was Peggy Noonan. Writing in the weekend Wall Street Journal, she speculated that the Democrats, helped by Trump's increasingly erratic behavior, could conceivably change some minds about impeachment if they can resist the temptation to turn the hearings into a political spectacle. Slightly more than half of U.S. voters already favor impeachment, reports Gallup, but if that number were to increase in the weeks and months ahead, Noonan thinks it could sway some GOP votes against Trump in the Senate. Twenty Republicans would need to side with the Democrats to take down the president, but as Noonan, a former Reagan speechwriter, reminds us, stranger things have happened. These are not the musings of a never-Trumper or some TDS loony who froths at the mouth whenever vocalizing the man's name. Like many Trump supporters, including your editor, Noonan finds little to like about him personally but will probably vote for him anyway because his opponents seem hell-bent on dismantling the Republic. For Trump's supporters, this election unfortunately will not be about making America great again, but about protecting America from the depradations of a left-wing lynch mob keen to settle all scores once and for all. 'Crazy' in What Way? Noonan measures her words carefully, but she is still forthright enough to consider that maybe Trump really is crazy. His enemies certainly think so, as they never tire of telling us. But they mean "crazy" in the certifiable, clinical sense of the word. How about crazy in the behavioral sense?  Trump's own words make a pretty

Looking to make spare change with low-risk trades in a cheap stock? Here’s an easy one in Uber that netted a $70 gain on 400 shares in under an hour. The stock sells for around $32, making it cheap enough for even a $10,000 account to comfortably handle the margin on four round lots.  We used an rABC pattern with a point ‘C’ high that was established after the session ended. From the time the trade triggered it took exactly 41 minutes to touch the red line where 50%-100% could have been covered. The low went on to touch p2, which would have been worth an additional $70 in profits. One trade like this one every day and you’ll have an extra $35,000 to spend at the end of the year.

A glance at the charts of Boeing and Johnson & Johnson shows what stock-market bears are up against as they patiently await a meaningful correction of excesses that have been building in the financial system for nearly a decade.  Are the portfolio managers who support these two stocks without a trace of nervousness crazy, or what? Boeing has received relentlessly negative press since December, and for good reason. Its huge fleet of 737 Max jets has been grounded for an overhaul of faulty navigation equipment that caused two crashes resulting in 346 deaths and a spate of lawsuits around the world. For its part, Johnson & Johnson just got socked with an $8 billion jury award that is not even related to the motherlode of lawsuits they will face because of talcum powder's supposedly carcinogenic effects. The $8 billion verdict involved a guy who supposedly developed man-boobs after taking J&J's antipsychotic drug Risperdal as a child. Boeing may be in slightly better shape, having made progress settling with the families of some of the passengers who died in the crashes. But other aggrieved families undoubtedly will seek jury trials that will leave the airline exposed to open-ended liabilities for the foreseeable future Fund Managers' Omerta And yet, the charts show that the shares of both companies have held up astoundingly well considering that their legal problems could drag on for years or even decades. After shaking out the weak hands, DaBoyz put the stocks back on their respective glide paths as though nothing of consequence had happened. Indeed, the stocks look capable of remaining buoyant more or less indefinitely, or at least until the inevitable bear market lays waste to all stocks. In the meantime, the omerta that binds those who make their living throwing Other People's Money at a

Buyers impaled the 2962.38 midpoint resistance on Friday (see inset), leaving no doubt about whether the futures will achieve the 3069.75 'D' target of the same pattern. It lies 3.36% above, which is roughly commensurate with one in AAPL at 243.68 that is 2.5% higher.  We've been watching AAPL closely because the decade-old bull market is unlikely to end as long as Apple shares are moving higher. Concerning the E-Mini S&Ps, the rally pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling to suggest that a tightly stopped short at D would enjoy success. As always, however, I would recommend shorting aggressively only if you've made a profit on a long position enroute to the target. Stay tuned to the chat room if you would like guidance on this, since trades disseminated in the room in real time have racked up a very impressive track record lately, most recently with a $2400 theoretical winner in ES on Friday.

Would the Wall Street Journal consider walking away from Trump if the alternative were Elizabeth Warren? A recent headline atop the front page hinted that the newspaper's right-leaning ownership could already be on that path: Turkey Launches Offensive Against U.S. Ally. Even the Trump-hating New York Times stopped short of saying so bluntly that the U.S. had sold out its erstwhile allies, the Kurds, by unleashing the Turkish military on them. Here's how the Times cued up the same story: Turkey Launches Offensive Against U.S.-Backed Syrian Militia. Technically, that leader is more accurate than the Journal's, since there's little chance the Kurds, legendary fighters who crushed Islamic State in Syria, still consider themselves U.S. allies or that they will ever again put their lives on the line for the U.S. Trump for his part seems convinced that by telling Turkish President Erdogan to be gentle with the Kurds, a bloodbath can somehow be avoided.  Bear in mind that Turkey regards all Kurds as terrorists and presumably would rather see them dead than resettled anywhere near Turkey's border with Syria. With understatement that is bound to haunt him on the campaign trail, Trump called the air and land assaults launched by the Turks last week 'a bad idea.' Even worse is his own strategy of standing down while Turkey, hellbent on killing every last Kurd, vaults into a leadership role in one of the most politically dangerous regions on earth.  Syria is destined to become still moreso if the 12,000 Islamic State terrorists imprisoned by the Kurds are loosed upon the world. Do Trump and his advisors think Turkey will simply take over as jailers of these human time bombs? They haven't said because they simply don't know. Warren's Moment Until very recently, it was arguable that Trump would win re-election

For more than a month, we've waited patiently to jump back aboard after a fat score with some out-of-the-money calls purchased in August. GDX is trading about where it was before we bought the options, and so it's probably a good time to hunker down on the lesser charts as we wait for another exceptional opportunity.  The chart shown, going back to July, highlights a rather large, beautifully formed head and shoulders pattern that warrants our attention. I am skeptical of this bearish formation because it tends to crop up everywhere you look for it. In this case, however, the H&S is for real, and not just a hallucination. The good news is that, because it will tend to condition the expectations of technically oriented traders, they will be sufficiently bearish to cause the stock to fly if it suddenly aborts the pattern with a steep, sharp move higher. We'll be ready in any event, cautious but with a bullish speculative bias. _____ UPDATE (Oct 16, 12:36 a.m.): Tuesday's close beneath p2=26.31 was not exactly a sign of robust health. Whatever the case, it argues for waiting until D=25.22 is reached before we attempt to bottom-fish aggressively. In the meantime, we can scalp off rABC patterns as we attempted to do on Tuesday. Stay tuned to the chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (4:56 p.m.): GDX ratcheted higher after opening on a wacky bar that held no easy entry opportunities for us. We'll remain alert. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 4:12 p.m.):  Other than a post by Catman, there was no apparent interest in GDX in the Trading Room today. For what it's worth, here's an rABC pattern with a 27.66 rally target that can be used as a minimum upside objective as the week ends. ______ UPDATE (Oct 21,

A 'high-confidence' target at 243.68 has allowed us to go calmly and confidently with the trend, even when the stock was swooning $45 in June and $30 in August. The target, a Hidden Pivot resistance drawn from the daily chart, has been my minimum upside objective since around early April. This implies the stock could go significantly higher if it blows past 243.68. Specifically, and just in case, we should keep the 286.00 target shown (inset) in mind. It is important to be objective about this, since we are using AAPL as a bellwether to tell us when the bull market, which just entered its 92nd month, might be fixing to draw its last breath. Because AAPL is the most valuable company in the world (having recently surpassed MSFT) and a must-own stock for portfolio managers, it stands to reason that the broad averages won't top out until AAPL does. I'd be surprised if we do not see a tradeable pullback from 243.68, and I am therefore still recommending that you go short there using options purchased for $1.00 or less with perhaps two weeks left on them. You can buy a quantity of them provided you do so against a tight stop-loss. Specifically, if the stock were to trade $246 or higher, or close for two consecutive days above 243.68, we should infer it's on its way to at least p2=250.00 of the new pattern, but more likely to D=286.00. ______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 12:28 a.m.): A 238.15 target that caught this week's so-far high within two cents must be respected. It differs from the one at 243.68 given above in that it uses a point C low recorded overnight that lies $5 below the regular session low I used.  My thanks to 'Ovcactus,' a relatively new Pivoteer, for

Gold looks like it will need to correct further before it can resume the steep bull trend begun in late May.  Most immediately, the December contract would trigger a 'mechanical' short if the bounce from Friday's low hits x=1507.00. Your stop-loss would be at 1525.90, implying initial risk of $1900 per contract. This is a promising pattern as far as 'mechanical' opportunities go, meaning I regard odds of a relapse to D=1450.50 as high. However, if the trade is stopped out, you could bank on more upside to at least 1535.90 over the near term (60-min, A=1467.90 on 10/1 at 10:00 a.m. EDT). Here's a GLD chart if you want to try the mechanical short but don't trade futures.  The bounce off Friday's low would need to hit 141.54 (stop 143.26) to trigger the trade).