Rick Ackerman

The 212.77 rally target shown in today's chart should be familiar, since it has been in play for nearly a month. AAPL's ascent has been too steep to trip any 'mechanical' buy signals, but if it should pull back to p=198.68, we'll consider putting an 'old-style' bid there, stop 193.98.  Stay tuned to the trading room for guidance in real time if the stock gets close to the fed line intraday. Regardless of whether there's a pullback, we'll want to stake out a spec short position if and when D is hit.

The 3095 rally target I've projected for the S&P 500 cash index (see below) lies well above current levels. Bulls have had little trouble reaching middling Hidden Pivot targets in the past, but this one will require some effort, since the pattern that produced stretches all the way back to January. It also has unusual clarity, closely resembling a Dow pattern from the early 2000s that correctly predicted a major bull move. The Dow would be trading for around 28,000 if the S&Ps get there. Bears should have no illusions in the meantime that any negative economic news that comes out in the weeks and months ahead will negatively impact the picture. It is not chiseled in stone, but it should be regarded as a high-confidence forecast.

There were too many possible targets in my earlier tout, so I've scrapped them all to focus on just one for now: 1298.59.  This Hidden Pivot could be achieved as early as Monday, but let's make sure the stock gets there before we consider the 1334.30 target I'd said earlier looked like such a good bet. A pullback to the red line should be regarded as an opportunity to get long via a 'mechanical' bid, stop 1205.77. ______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:35 p.m.): If you've made a few bucks on the way to the target, treat yourself to a few expiring puts when GOOG gets there.  The 1200s will probably be the highest strike you can buy for less than $1.00. This is pure speculation, so be prepared to kiss some of your hard-earned gains goodbye.

Apologies. As the bull market has ground on endlessly, I might have provided you with a precise target for the elusive Mother of All Tops. Instead, what I've done in recent months is pussyfoot with relatively minor rally targets of limited value. Can you blame me for hoping that one of these little pishers would eventually nail the summit of a runaway bull badly in need of a rebuke? So far, as you will have noticed, I've had only limited success. However, I will warrant that the 3095.19 target for the S&P 500 shown in the chart (click on inset) is a decent bet to call THE top. I will be betting on it, and so should you, especially if you are a permabear who sees hellfire as the only remedy for a stock market that long ago lost its connection to reality. If you are a permabull you can bet on it too -- by trading more aggressively than you might otherwise until the target is reached. What is most striking about the chart shown in the inset is that it is so similar to one labeled 'My Epiphany' in the PowerPoint presentation I use to teach the Hidden Pivot Method. Click here to compare the two. Regarding the epiphany, it came in 2004. I was very bearish then as always, and I viewed the stock market as being in a multi-year topping process. However, this didn't jibe with what the Hidden Pivot Method was telling me. I'd developed the system exactly for this situation. It gave me a mechanically objective tool to supplant gut feelings that were often wrong at key turning points. By focusing solely on the charts, I was able to see not only that the broad averages were not  in a topping process, but that

It's like a breath of fresh air when the futures actually finish lower on the day. Granted, the S&P slippage on Thursday amounted to only a few measly points. Would it be churlish to hope it's the start of something really nasty?  Bulls should be hoping for nothing less, since the broad averages, especially the Nasdaq, are desperately in need of a rest.  Nitro-fueled by FAANG stocks, the Naz has been climbing very steeply since early March. Corrections have been few and far between, averaging about one 'red' day for every ten 'green'.  This is extraordinary, but the longer it continues, the more brutal the inevitable shakeout.  We can all smell it coming. Maybe it has already begun.

Facebook has rocketed 10 percent higher this evening in after-hours trading, demonstrating yet again how Wall Street runs a rigged game that even the most gifted carny operator would envy. The stock's deft handlers have used a bullish earnings headline out after the close to incite flash-mob buying with the irresistible force of a nuclear detonation. Prior to this evening's ballistic episode, which took all of 118 minutes to unfold, it had required an entire month to eke out the last 10 percent gain. That was no small trick either, since the news that kicked off the wafting rally was not particularly bullish. Facebook's new Big Idea, announced after the bell on January 30, was to "pivot" away from advertising revenues toward fees for such services as encrypted messaging and virtual rooms to accommodate small groups. At the time, the stock took an instant 15% leap, confirming our worst suspicions about investors when herd behavior takes over. Clearly, no conceivable business model will ever be more profitable than the one Facebook currently uses -- i.e., collecting fees from vendors for laser-targeted advertisements. But if the planned "pivot" seems likely to diminish the value of each and every one of Facebook's two billion subscribers, investors seem not to care. Zuck Dazzles Analysts Even without the change, Facebook was in danger of becoming uncool. The social media giant is already a pariah in the eyes of all who value privacy. Still worse is that its core audience of millennials has been deserting it in droves. We know from the saga of AOL that it's possible for an internet giant to become a has-been overnight. Lest analysts pause to consider this possibility, Zuckerberg pro-actively dazzled them with twaddle about a "pivot" toward a new business model. It were as though McDonald's had elicited

The mechanical trade has become our work horse because it’s easy to execute and so often profitable. In this lesson we extended its usefulness by using mechanical set-ups in charts of smaller degree instead of the more labor-intensive ‘camouflage’ tactic. An advantage of this is that all entries are accomplished with limit bids and offers rather than with stop-market and stop-limit triggers. The point is illustrated via a successful mechanical trade we did in the E-Mini S&Ps.

Tuesday's relentlessly vertical rally felt like a blowoff, or at least the beginning of one. Middling Hidden Pivot resistances in most indexes that I track got schmeissed, and the very shallow corrections that followed suggest bears are likely to get whacked again as the week wears on. The 212.77 target we've been using in AAPL will offer a crucial test of buying power, since it is such a clear and compelling 'hidden' resistance. If it gives way easily we should infer that Wall Street's animal spirits are of the rabid-badger variety and unlikely to cease by week's end.

The bull market has gone vertical, suggesting stocks are in a blowoff. Where will it end?  We'll hazard a guess simply because it's irresistible fun, and because one of these days we're bound to get it right. Let me therefore offer 2953.50 for the June contract, or 2974.25 if any higher. Both of these Hidden Pivots seem likely to show stopping power, even if equally compelling rally targets got bulldozed on Tuesday.  The lower number is especially appealing because of the precise stall at the midpoint pivot with which it is associated (see inset), and the perfection of the 'mechanical' buy signal 40 points below these levels a week ago. ______ UPDATE (May 2, 9:58 p.m. ET): A just-missed rally target at 2969.50 was an important enough failure to imply a small chance that a major top is in. I mentioned this target earlier but did not drum-roll it because I did not want to queer its usefulness as a place to get short. For now, though, use the 2892.20 target shown in this chart as a minimum downside projection. An overshoot could be telegraphing an acceleration of the downtrend.