Rick Ackerman

Last week's encouraging 6% gain triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal at x=34.82 for a shot at 61.54. It could take a year or more to reach that Hidden Pivot, and although it is not pie-in-the sky because of the impressive look of the pattern, we'll focus for now on a more realistic target at 43.73 for now. That is the pattern' midpoint pivot, and it can serve as a minimum upside objective for now. Stay tuned for guidance on option spreads that could offer a cheap way to leverage the move. _______ UPDATE (Mar 4, 6:45 p.m.): Two weeks of selling have generated a so-far weak impulse leg on the daily chart without altering its bullish look or that of the longer-term chart shown in the inset. _______ UPDATE (Mar 6, 10:15 p.m.): The 'bullish look' alluded to above will endure until such time as mid-January's low at 29.25 is exceeded. Looks aside, the plunge from Feb 20's high at 35 is more than a little discouraging.  GDXJ looks like it will test the 29.25 low before it can turn around. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 9:36 p.m.): The 34.07 rally target shown in this chart is tied to a tired-looking impulse leg, but GDXJ should get there anyway because of the larger, bullish ABC pattern that is also pushing this rally. Will it take a week? We shouldn't be surprised if this proves to be the case, since that's the way gold rolls.______ UPDATE (Mar 28, 9:34 p.m.): Once again, gold has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, causing this junior-miners ETF to fall 3.5% in the space of a few hours. It became a 'mechanical' buy at 32.05, stop 30.60, but the signal is weak and the trade is therefore not recommended. _______ UPDATE (Apr 1, 10:32 p.m.):

The rally sputtered out between two Hidden Pivots noted here earlier (1345 and 1354) but we'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt because upthrusts have consistently been exceeding external peaks going back to last summer. For now, stick with the ambitious 1378.70 target broached here earlier. If the pullback hits X=1305.80 it would trip a 'mechanical' bid that may be worth considering. Here's a chart that shows the pattern yielding the 1378.70 target. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:35 p.m. EST): The correction begun a week ago from 1350 looks bound for at least 1309.30. I expect a bounce from within 3-4 ticks of that number, but the futures may ultimately have to test a low at 1304.70 recorded on Feb 14 to get traction. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 8:02 a.m.): It is NOT a healthy sign that April Gold has failed to hold the crystal-clear support at 1309.50 (slightly corrected from earlier). Let's see if the 1304.70 low holds. If not, and the 'C' low sits right, I may suggest a 'counterintuitive' buy. Stay tuned to the chat room for timely details.

A minor rally target at 2811.25 has kept us steadfastly on the right side of the trend -- profitably so for subscribers who stuck with a 'mechanical' trade detailed here Thursday morning. (It triggered at 2770.25 but was too slow to develop to be called an easy winner.) If the target is decisively exceeded, that would shorten the odds of more upside to 2851.75, a Hidden Pivot of larger degree that first appeared here on February 10. The futures have taken an ambitious leap Sunday night to 2803.25, but it's not possible to say at the moment whether this may have exhausted short-covering for the time being. _______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 5:53 p.m.): Buyers slightly exceeded the 2811.25 target. The 2.75-point overshoot will add slightly to the bullishness of the chart, since a pattern this clean ought to have topped within no more than a tick or two of our objective. First, though, a correction. It could come down to as low as 2763.00 without negatively impacting the picture. _______ UPDATE (Feb 27, 9:54 p.m.): If the engineered swoon to 2775.00 today was the correction, then the futures are headed up to 2818.50 on Thursday.  Short there only if you've made at least a small profit on the rally. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 9:29 p.m.): Zzzzzz. No change.

DaBoyz were unable to goad bears into covering short positions on Thursday, so stocks went limp. "Bullish news" overnight could change that, but the sordid tale of actor Jussie Smollett, who evidently lied about being beaten up by MAGA thugs,  has so completely dominated the headlines that a bullish story concerning the economy is unlikely to stir up much of a response.  However the day unfolds on Wall Street, we're inclined to go short over the weekend for reasons detailed in the DJIA tout below.

On Wednesday the Indoos poked marginally above a key peak at 25,908 recorded in December. This would likely have caused a multitude of technical traders and algos to smack their lips with anticipation, since such breakouts, even when slight, are among the most bullish events that can occur on charts. Of course, it could also be a great way for Mr. Market to set a ruinous trap for bulls, since they are already giddy over the steep run-up in stocks that has occurred since late December. That's why we are unfurling the yellow flag with tonight's updates. The chart shows how a 921-point drop to the green line would trigger a theoretical short sale. As a practical matter, we don't have to wait for something that significant to happen in order to take a bearish position. We like the short at these heights, ahead of the actual signal, because Wednesday's breakout smells like such a rat. Fed Murmurings By treating Thursday's moderate selloff as the potential start of something big, we risk little. Even if the broad averages were to move somewhat higher, drawn magnetically toward October's record peaks, that would only heighten our skittishness about bulls' heedless climb up a wall of worry that looks primed to collapse. It's surprising that stocks were able to make any headway at all in the wake of the Fed's latest murmurings. Dovish they were not, but index futures still upticked for modest gains after the close on Wednesday. They peaked in volumeless trading overnight, however, and DaBoyz began Thursday unable to corral enough bears to keep the faux rally alive. If stocks open higher on Friday, or if they continue upward during the day, it'll be tempting to fade buyers by acquiring some cheap put options. [This just in: Existing homes sales

On Wednesday the Indoos poked marginally above a key peak at 25,908 recorded in December. This would likely have caused a multitude of technical traders and algos to smack their lips with anticipation, since such breakouts, even when slight, are among the most bullish events that can occur on charts. Of course, it could also be a great way for Mr. Market to set a ruinous trap for bulls, since they are already giddy over the steep run-up in stocks that has occurred since late December. That's why we are unfurling the yellow flag with tonight's updates. The chart shows how a 921-point drop to the green line would trigger a theoretical short sale. As a practical matter, we don't have to wait for something that significant to happen in order to take a bearish position. We like the short at these heights, ahead of the actual signal, because Wednesday's breakout smells like such a rat. Fed Murmurings By treating Thursday's moderate selloff as the potential start of something big, we risk little. Even if the broad averages were to move somewhat higher, drawn magnetically toward October's record peaks, that would only heighten our skittishness about bulls' heedless climb up a wall of worry that looks primed to collapse. It's surprising that stocks were able to make any headway at all in the wake of the Fed's latest murmurings. Dovish they were not, but index futures still upticked for modest gains after the close on Wednesday. They peaked in volumeless trading overnight, however, and DaBoyz began Thursday unable to corral enough bears to keep the faux rally alive. If stocks open higher on Friday, or if they continue upward during the day, it'll be tempting to fade buyers by acquiring some cheap put options. [This just in: Existing homes sales

Just when bulls thought it was safe to go back in the water, the obscurantists at the Fed start mumbling hints again about tightening. Are index futures moving higher tonight anyway simply because the players have grown tired of treating the central bank's tiresome little game with deference? After a while, this can become more than a little silly, sort of like trying to find existential meaning in Bozo the Clown's body language. Even so, we hesitate to ascribe intelligence or discernment to the headless chickens, miscreants and algos who move the markets. More likely is that the same mysterious, cyclical forces that determine trends happen to be bullish at the moment, irrespective of what the Open Market Committee implies or intends.

With a Fed announcement just hours away, stocks were comatose. Even so, as you will see, there’s always something to do. Two closely rationalized trades are on view here, including an E-Mini S&P entry that could have produced a $250 profit in mere minutes. Using the rating system taught in the Hidden Pivot Course, we pondered an opportunity that rated only a ‘6.5’ on a day when we’d determined to initiate trades rated only ‘8’ or better. If you haven’t had much practice with the rating system, this lesson will put you on-track.

If you're a taxpayer, you may have something to celebrate soon. On an otherwise dull news day, there was word Tuesday evening that President Trump would attempt to claw back as much as $3.4 billion in earmarks and grants for California's high-speed rail project. The line was originally conceived as a link between San Francisco and Los Angeles, but this was never more than pipe dream -- a guaranteed boondoggle that had as much chance of completion as a sky-bus shuttle to Mars. Huge cost overruns and delays have caused California to scale back on the line so that it connects, not big cities and millions of commuters, but the sparse, Central Valley citizenries of West Podunk and Palookaville (see inset).  That sounds do-able -- mere tens of billions of dollars will probably suffice -- but it supposedly would be cheaper to buy a Honda Prius for each and every person who might conceivably use the rail system. Throwing Good Money After Bad California Gov. Gavin Newsom will undoubtedly sue to hold onto Federal dollars that have been allotted so far, and he will claim that the project, although drastically reduced, is still worth finishing. For his part, Trump tweeted on Feb. 13 "We want that money back now. Whole project is a 'green' disaster!" It surely is that, and even if the funds go unsurrendered, it will be entertaining and enlightening to see the project exposed for the grandiose 'green' scandal that it is.