Rick Ackerman

Mr. Market seems to be enjoying playing against our expectations more than usual lately. On Friday, for instance, he left us with an ebullient finishing stroke that all but promised even higher prices on Monday. Lo, disappointing earnings from Caterpillar out before the opening set both the company's shares and the broad averages reeling. That's why I'm suggesting paying particular attention to a bullish price benchmark in AAPL (see below). Can the stock possibly attain it? Seems unlikely. But AAPL has looked so bad lately that I can't help thinking it is where Mr. Market will to try to bamboozle us next. We'll be ready if he does.

AAPL remains a key stock-market bellwether even if it has acted weaker than most of the other institutional favorites since the bull market ended in early October. As such, we should on the alert for the unexpected -- in this case an upthrust exceeding the two external peaks shown. I mentioned the higher of the two (162.11) here earlier, suggesting that you treat with skepticism any rally failing to exceed it. I'm certainly not expecting this, but that's all the more reason to be prepared for it, since it could be telegraphing the start of a strong rally in the broad averages. I've set a chart alert there, and so should you. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:23 p.m.): Exactly as we'd anticipated, the stock has exploded in after-hours trading, on the non-news that earnings have "stabilized."  The so far high at 164.85 easily exceeded my bullish benchmark. Now let's see how far DaBoyz can take this hoax. ________ UPDATE (Jan 30, 7:01 p.m.): The hoax sputtered out, at least for the time being, at 166.15. It's time to move the goal posts again on bulls, the better to determine whether they are willing to put their money where their mouths are. This chart benchmarks a small 'external' peak at 168.35 as the one to beat. ______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 5:35 p.m.): A round of applause for DaBoyz, who managed to push this cinder block to 169.00 today, putting bears who remain short in real jeopardy. The mood has changed, and this could be the best chance AAPL's institutional sponsors will have in 2019 to fool buyers into thinking the stock is going somewhere. We'll sit back and enjoy the show wherever it goes, taking positions on either side of the market when the odds look juicy.

The futures ended on a promising note after spending most of the week tracing out a 60-point swoon. The 2612.50 low of the move narrowly missed tripping a 'mechanical' buy at 2607.31. This suggests there was too much buying power for the futures to fall all the way to the green line where such bids become active. Correspondingly, the 2727.50 target is an better bet to be reached than it would have been following a touch-and-go takeoff. Pivoteers who recall the old-style rules for setting up a mechanical trade at the red line can try it, but you'll be on your own if you do. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:43 a.m.): Bullish as things looked at Friday's close, stocks are getting whomped today, reminding us yet again that the market develops a fresh case of amnesia each and every night, especially over weekends. The futures would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal at 2607.25 (stop 2567.00), but I'm recommending the trade only to those who know how to convert the set-up to a camouflage one. ________ UPDATE (Jan 28, 4:12 p.m.): I'd recommend canceling the mechanical bid because price action looks so feeble. However, you can still attempt the trade via camouflage if you can identify a 'camo' set-up that brings entry risk down to six ticks or less per contract. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:27 p.m.): Index futures have gotten less lift from tonight's short-squeeze in AAPL than I might have expected. Regardless, the 2727.50 target (2728.25 when corrected) given above will remain viable unless 2567.25 is exceeded to the downside. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 7:06 p.m.): Today's stall precisely at the D target shown is unlikely to keep the futures from reaching the 2728.25 target given above. ______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 5:26 p.m.): The futures were steaming toward the

AMZN ended the week looking feisty, but not quite feisty enough to command the broad averages higher when the new week begins. In assessing the stock's strength over the next couple of days, we'll skip the subtleties and stipulate, simply, that it must surpass the 1718.93 'external' peak labeled in the chart to shift into high gear. The 1775.75 rally target given here previously will still obtain, but we should put it on the back burner until AMZN re-energizes itself with an  impulsive thrust above the peak. Keep in mind that the stock is still on a 'mechanical' buy signal -- one we passed up because the dollar risk and the very steep pitch of the last correction were just too scary. Yes, we love such set-ups because they work best when price movement is violent and punitive. In this case, however, 'instincts' have overruled the usual protocols simply because we are very probably in a bear market.

As expected, the Dow blew past the upper threshold of the wedge formation pictured here Friday, gapping well above it on the opening bar. We'd predicted a 250-point surge, but the Indoos did a little better, gaining 306 points at the intraday high. This price action confirms what we already knew -- i.e., that stocks are incapable of leaping higher unless powered by the kind of short covering that usually turns up in the first few seconds of the day, if at all. What was interesting about Friday's rally is that it didn't sputter out and  reverse within minutes. Instead, buyers kept at it for the next hour, peaking at around 10:50 a.m. This strongly suggests they'll be back when the new week begins, even if unlikely to tip their hand right away, as they tend to do on Fridays.

Gold took wing Friday, energized by weakness in the dollar. The $23 upthrust stalled almost exactly at the 1302.90 Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance shown, validating both the bullish pattern and a 1330.40 target we've been using for the last week or so. (Note: These numbers differ slightly from the ones given here earlier because the pattern's point 'C' low changed.)  The 1330.40 'D' pivot will become our minimum upside objective if the futures can close for two consecutive days above p or trade more than $3 above it intraday. Traders please note that a pullback to the green line at 1289.10 from around 1310.00 would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 1275.20. Stay tuned to that chat room for further guidance on this in real time.______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 4:17 p.m.): The futures look like they've consolidated sufficiently for a decisive push past the 1302.90 'midpoint resistance' noted above. Once this occurs, the 1330.40 Hidden Pivot will be in play as our minimum upside objective for the near term. _______ UPDATE (January 29, 12:01 a.m.): Shifting to the April contract, here's a chart that shows a 1336.40 target equivalent to the one given above for the February.

If you have strong feelings about how the week is going to end on Wall Street, then perhaps you don't understand the situation. Although there was no bullish buying to speak of in the last five days, neither, evidently, was there any enthusiasm for dumping shares. The result was that the broad averages wedged a few inches higher, setting up a potential breakout that could see the Dow gain as much as 250 points ahead of the weekend. That's how one denizen of the Rick's Picks chat room saw things, although others seemed less optimistic. Take a look at the chart. What's your gut feeling?  For our part, we bet the pass line with a small wager on some way-of-the-money call options in NFLX. (Thanks for the suggestion, Bachus!)  A measly $60 bought as many as ten of them. This may prove to have been a lousy bet, but there's nothing to inhibit the calls from achieving a tenfold increase in value if traders should get even a little crazy in the early going. Stranger things have happened, especially on Fridays, as we know.  In any event, the naked sellers of the calls stand to make a whopping $6o if nothing happens. We'll take the odds on this one. _______ UPDATE (Jan 25, 8:53 p.m.): The trade worked beautifully, allowing subscribers who bought NFLX 345 calls for as little as 0.04 to easily quadruple their stake. There was similar good fortune in CAT, where Pivoteers reported buying calls at the 137 strike for as little as 0.02 that subsequently traded as high as 0.22. (The highest actual exit reported was at 0.19, a more-than-ninefold increase.) If you are skeptical that such results can be achieved, please tune to the chat room some Thursday or Friday morning and see them happen

Could you use an extra $40,000 to help pay the bills in 2019? Then check out the no-big-deal trade that we did in NFLX -- a counterintuitive (CI) short on a dull day when we were determined to force a trade no matter what. And so we did. We called up a NFLX chart simply because it was one of the few stocks that was moving that morning . Lo, there was a fully ripened CI set-up just waiting to be harvested. We entered the trade moments later and were able to take a partial profit within a minute or two. This gambit was worth as much as $220, although we went onto to other things with just $160 of it covered. Do just one of these little “nothing” trades each day and it will add up to $40,000 by the end of the year.

DaBoyz more than held their own Wednesday, keeping the Dow airborne for six hours even though buying interest was practically nil. This is an achievement of sorts, and it suggests that although upside potential will be limited to whatever the stock market's masters can milk from daily mood swings, there would appear to be little enthusiasm for a hard selloff at the moment. In such circumstances, the blue chip average, currently trading for around 24,600, could waft above 25,000 with little ado. That number is psychologically important because it is where investors would start to believe that a rally to new all-time highs is actually possible. From a purely technical standpoint, the chart suggests that a decisive push past the 24,736 'midpoint pivot' would put the Indoos on track for a move to as high as 25,229 over the next 3-5 days.  The Dow is already trading above the 24,332 midpoint of the steep correction from early October's all-time high, but it won't run into serious supply until around 25,200, where tons of stock changed hands between bulls and bears in the sine wave of late October/November. Housing Slump Deepens It seems incredible to me that stocks could make any headway at all, given the darkening economic picture. It grew still more ominous Thursday with this headline atop the front page of the Wall Street Journal: "Slump in Housing Market Deepens". What could cause this situation to change so suddenly as to make possible a run-up in the Dow to new highs? My imagination fails me on this question. Barring some epiphany, I'll continue to see every new inch of the uptrend that has unfolded since Christmas as an increasingly juicy opportunity to get short.