Rick Ackerman

Apple shares have plunged on news out after the close that China's economic slowdown will adversely impact earnings. The stock dove nearly $14, bottoming so far at 144.51, when trading resumed at 4:50 p.m. after a brief halt. The wizards on the buy side at the moment are not big risk-takers, so we can infer that they think the shares they are sucking up between $145 and $147 are a pretty good deal. Even so, there's an unfulfilled Hidden Pivot target at 143.36 that I expect to be achieved before sellers are spent, and if it fails we could see still more slippage to as low as 138.20. All of this matter a great deal, since, as I've repeatedly emphasized, the broad averages can't rise if AAPL is falling. This implies that there could be a juicy contrarian trade in index futures if AAPL seems to have put in a bottom overnight. The E-Mini S&Ps, for one, dove while trading was halted in AAPL, but they are now spring-loaded for a nasty short-squeeze rebound if it appears the worst of the selling is over. Plan accordingly.

You’ll be itching to trade after you’ve checked out this recording, since the session contains a couple of ultra-low-risk scalps. One of them was a minutely explained entry in AAPL on the one-minute chart. These are exactly the kinds of trades many of you who are new to the Hidden Pivot Method have been looking for. The important thing to keep in mind is that any trading strategy that makes you $100 a day can just as easily make you $1,000. Over time as your confidence grows, you will want to grow your size and perhaps trade less.

AMZN and AAPL were both looking pretty subdued as 2018 ended, implying DaBoyz are not feeling so gutsy even though tax selling is out of the way. Merely bullish buying will always take a back seat to short-covering as a source power behind the rallies, but it remains to be seen whether there will be enough "good" news to panic bears. There were some border-wall stories on the tape that wouldn't rate a yawn on Wall Street. But if the Dems crank up impeachment talk and their dirty-tricks squad to start the new year, it's going to take a toll on stocks.

With seasonality at gale force, AMZN still couldn't achieve our modest 1529.92 target in the final days of 2018. Tax selling will be out of the way now, however, and we should see bulls hit our benchmark on Wednesday. Judging from the stock's timid behavior Tuesday night, though, its handlers aren't taking any chances. They will wait for news ahead of the opening that could conceivably drive a short squeeze -- the only source of buying strong enough to temporarily dispel the clouds that have sat over Wall Street since early October. If buyers overwhelm the 1529.29 target, that would be bullish. However, they'll need to push the stock above December 19's 1584.53 peak to generate the kind of impulse leg on the hourly chart that suggest the rally has staying power. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 5:41 p.m.): Although bellwether AAPL is getting schmeissed in after-hours trading, AMZN would trip a mechanical buy signal if it fall to the green line at 1492.62. Since initial theoretical risk with a stop below 'C' would be more than $3000 per round lot, I'd suggest doing the trade via a 'camouflage' set-up only._______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:28 a.m.): Despite Wall Street's big selloff this morning, the 'mechanical' buy noted above has performed well, rallying $46 after dipping just $2 below the 1492.62 bid. The stock is making it harder for AAPL's sleazy handlers to shake out more widows and pensioners this morning. AAPL has traded only slightly below the 143.36 target I sent out last night, when it was getting demolished for lowering the Q1 outlook._______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:15 p.m.): AMZN somehow avoided getting crushed today and would in fact trip a 'mechanical' buy signal if it pulls back to the green line (1492.60, stop 1460.00). Tentatively, we'll respect the Furies by

The previous forecast called for a moderate but not explosive rally on the final trading day of 2018. That's exactly what happened, but because AAPL looked so punk, I doubt the uptrend is going to get legs. DaBoyz held the broad averages buoyant in the early going for just long enough to trigger a flurry of short-covering, the only buying strong enough recently to sporadically counteract tax selling.  AAPL was acting pretty subdued, however, implying there are still plenty of sellers around even though the stock has come down 37% since topping in early October at $233. If it gets second wind and blows past the 160.57 target shown in the chart, the bullish case for the near term would strengthen. In any event, you still need look no further than AAPL to know what is on the shrunken, fevered brains of the portfolio managers. If it is going nowhere, than neither will the broad averages.

The 2533.00 target broached here earlier remains valid as a minimum upside objective, but it's time to shift our gaze higher to the 2595.00 target of the larger pattern shown in the chart. Its A-B impulse leg is well formed, implying a pullback to the green line from around 2550.00 can be used to get long via a 'mechanical' set-up. (Note: The trade would be invalidated if the futures fall beneath 2472.75 first.) If you're not sure how 'mechanical' trades work, tune to the chat room at the appropriate time for informed discussion. If buyers blow past p=2533.88 with little trouble, that would significantly shorten the odds of a finishing stroke to 2595.00. _______ UPDATE (Jan 2, 5:52 p.m.): DaBoyz have taken the futures down sharply on news that Apple has lowered its Q1 sales outlook, but it smells like a set-up for a short squeeze.  The mechanical set-up is not ideal for a buy at 2483.75, stop 2452.00, but I'll mention it nonetheless because the pattern shown, with a failed, would-be impulse leg intraday, looks like it will eventually deliver the 2578.25 target.______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:36 a.m.): The mechanical trade is hanging on by a thread, but if it is stopped out [It was!] the pattern shown here would be activated, putting in play a 2383.13 minimum downside target. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 9:15 a.m.): A stealth rally overnight on vaporous volume has failed so far to generate a bullish impulse leg. That would take a print at 2489.25, just above the overnight high. It would require no less than 2523.25 to invalidate the bearish target at 2385.38 (slightly corrected from the number given above).

May 2019 bring robust health, serene contentment and prosperity into your lives, dear readers and subscribers. Many of the challenges that beset us will remain as we enter the new year. Let us resolve to face them together, united by good will, kindness and sincerity. Would that we are able to look back on the next twelve months with pride and feelings of accomplishment.  

DaBoyz have engineered a moderate short-squeeze Sunday night, bidding fair to end the year on a positive note. Dow Index futures have traded as much as 200 points higher in the early going, suggesting that any sellers around were easily brushed aside. Their weight is bound to be felt in the opening hour on Monday, but if the thimble-riggers stewarding this evening's game can keep the Dow above water in the opening hour, they'll be a good bet to end New Yera's Eve day with a decent if not explosive gain.  The Trumpster did his part, tweeting that trade negotiations with China are showing progress. This is very probably a lie, but the panicky bears doing all of the buying tonight are not prone to care.

The Dollar Index has been in a bullish holding pattern for two months. As tedious as this has seemed, it has not diminished the likelihood that the next big move will be up. My immediate target would be 98.20, and we could infer the rally had begun in earnest once DXY has closed for two consecutive days above the 97.10 midpoint resistance shown here.  Alternatively, the first hint of trouble -- unlikely in my estimation -- would come on a print beneath the 95.68 'external' low shown in the inset. A further, significant strengthening in the dollar will tell us when the deflationary endgame for the global economy is gathering force. It will crush debtors, bankrupt creditors and lop at least four or five zeroes worth of funny money from the banking system's quadrillion-dollar shell-game. I have written extensively on why hyperinflation is extremely unlikely to settle debts that have become vastly too large to repay. If you cannot understand why, let me pose this question: Do you actually believe the banksters will let you pay off your mortgage with a few hundred-thousand-dollar bills that you've peeled from your wallet? If you answered in the negative, you are implicitly a deflationist. Regarding hyperinflation, if you think the ruinous Weimar episode of 1921-23 shows that it could happen in the U.S., the opposite is true.  Read Adam Fergusson's When Money Dies for pellucid insights as to why. It is $8 on Amazon.