Rick Ackerman

Gold's pointless histrionics have been surprisingly tradeable, albeit only by Pivoteers who know what they're doing. Notice how Friday's stupid spike early in the session reversed from the secondary Hidden Pivot at 1782.70. Any rABC pattern one might have used to set up a short would have worked, although the pullback was so precipitous that executing a stop entry would have been challenging.  Some subscribers may also recognize that 'Matt's Curse'  took effect when the reversal occurred precisely at p2. This usually means the retracement will take out the point 'C' low of the pattern. We shall see, but if it happens we shouldn't take it too seriously, since gold has been visiting pain equally on bulls and bears alike for the last several weeks. _______ UPDATE (Oct 13, 4:20 p.m.): And speaking of pointless histrionics, you had to love gold's $40 lunatic leap today after spasming $20 both ways in the early going. A short a millimeter off the intraday high produced a profit for the subscriber who reported the trade in the chat room, but the pullback made little progress as the hours went on, suggestion that bullion's 'DaBoyz' aim to take this gas-case higher. Here's a pattern so gnarly that I can all but guarantee that it will work in every possible way, including shorting at 1810.50 via a 'camouflage' set-up. That means you could buy a pullback to p=1780.20 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 1770.10. That's $4000 of entry risk on four full-size contracts, so minis are recommended unless you are trading with winnings racked up earlier. ______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 7:29 a.m.): When the little p.o.s. plunged overnight to within 70 cents of my 1780.20 bottom-fishing number, I used this rABC pattern to drastically cut the entry risk to $480 on four contracts. The trade

With trillions in reckless stimulus as a backdrop, it seems counterintuitive to speak of the dollar as being in a boring consolidation. But that's what the long-term charts are saying. I'm a dollar permabull myself, since I see a deflationary endgame for the global financial bubble. But I must concede that if the Dollar Index is eventually headed to 120 or higher as I've been predicting, it is in no hurry to get there.  The chart doesn't give much support to dollar bears, though. The most bearish thing that could be said about it is that even though the greenback has risen only very modestly this year from the lows of a five-year range, it is already getting pretty overbought.  This sluggishness is worth watching, but it is not at all menacing at present.  Keep in mind as well that merely being overbought does not preclude the possibility of an enormous rally while this condition exists; it happens all the time. For the time being, however, you can tune out all the noise and 'expert' opinion concerning the dollar, especially the bearish kind.

ES moved more or less according to forecast on Friday. Although I'd touted an avalanche as likely, for scalping purposes I also proffered bottom-fishing guidance in the chat room that caught the intraday lows in QQQ, DIA and ES within a tenth of a percent. I'd intended to trade for a bounce, and that is still what I think we are seeing notwithstanding its seeming power. In Hidden Pivot terms the rally is still a relative weakling, having exceeded just two of six 'external' peaks on the hourly chart.  Although we shouldn't presume too strongly against a waxing rally, bulls should still have to prove their case one peak at a time before we resign ourselves to new record highs. (That would not make me more bullish, for reasons I've explained in the current commentary concerning IBM's head-fake in 2009.) For now, use the 4224.75 target shown in this chart as a minimum downside objective. It will remain theoretically valid until such time as C=4469.50 is exceeded. A rally to the green line (4408.31) would trip a 'mechanical' short, stop 4470.00, but I am recommending this trade only to Pivoteers who know how to cut the $12,000 entry risk on four contracts by 90% or more using a 'camouflage' trigger.  However, pending a possible tone change Sunday night, your trading bias should be bullish if you can handle entry signals on the sub-hourly charts. _____ UPDATE (Oct 4, 4:28 p.m.): Yet another timid showing by bears, this one failed to take out Friday's low. String together enough such failures and bulls eventually will seize the advantage.  Monday is typically their worst day to scare up a bounce, but the herd looked poised nonetheless for a 'turnaround Tuesday'. ______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:20 p.m.): Bulls turned things around with a vertical

Friday's spirited bounce came from within a split hair of the 'discomfort zone' low I'd proffered in the chat room a day earlier, but bulls shouldn't get their hopes too high. Although I am open to the possibility that this short-squeeze rally will pick up tempo enough to set up a lunatic leap to new all-time highs, that's not what I expect. Notice the head-and-shoulders formation in the chart (inset). Although fans of this pattern could have asked for better symmetry on the right shoulder, the overall look of it is impressively bearish.  The effect is compounded by an 'island reversal' that effectively stranded a mountain of supply above the shoulder line. Another factor giving bears the edge is that the 382.78 top on September 7 occurred just three cents above a Hidden Pivot target I'd drum-rolled back in January.  All of the above argues for a bearish bias for trading the bigger charts.  Please note that the smaller ones have yet to produce a bullish impulse leg even on the lowly 15-minute chart, shown here. (The same is true of AAPL, our #1 bellwether and proxy for institutional mindset: Its ostensibly nasty short squeeze on Friday did not exceed a single prior peak even on the '15'.) _______ UPDATE (Oct 4, 5:05 p.m.): Here's a nice pattern that projects down to 341.87.  Let's see if bears can crack the midpoint support on Tuesday. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 5:23 p.m.):  QQQ went the wrong way, tripping a mildly appealing 'mechanical' short at the green line (356.41). We'll spectate this time rather than pray for ruin overnight. ______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:26 p.m.): The would-be short failed to touch the red line where it could have been covered, suggesting DaBoyz were bullishly in control from the get-go this morning. They will

Last week produced an exceptional one-day rally, then a sideways follow-through that looks like a bullish consolidation. The start of something big?  Probably not, but we should take the possibility seriously, since, if stocks have entered a bear market, that would be the kind of paradigm shift that could change a picture in bullion that has remained stagnant for a year. I've displayed a weekly chart to put the rally in perspective: it is not even a blip, at least not yet. Nor should we get too excited if a fresh burst hits the green line, triggering a theoretical buy signal of long-term degree. That's happened twice since last summer, only to fail with the creation of two new point 'C' lows. This time price action so far is arguably less bullish, since the reaction rally off mid-August's stop-'em-out low didn't even reach the green line, nor was it impulsive on the weekly chart. I can offer no trading suggestions at the moment, but if you are scouting the lesser charts for opportunities, please don't hesitate to ask about them in the chat room. _____ UPDATE (Oct 4, 5:10 p.m. ET): If bears can chew through p=1770 tonight they'll be in good shape for a follow-through to the 1792.40 target of this pattern.  Using 'camouflage' to avoid $1100 of entry risk per contract, buy a pullback to the green line 'mechanically' if the opportunity should arise, especially in the wee hours.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 6:53 a.m.): The trade triggered at 12:39 a.m., 14 minutes after the futures pulled back to the green line (1758.90). The set-up, shown here on the one-minute chart, produced a gain on four contracts of as much as $480 in 40 minutes before gold peaked shortly thereafter and dove. Initial, theoretical risk would have been

Silver has rallied off a low that didn't quite make it down to a 'D' target, and that is slightly bullish. I've redrawn the chart to show the new downside target of a bigger pattern in order to provide counterpoint to a somewhat more bullish chart in gold (see above). To get a more balanced feel for bullion, we'll treat this rally as a 'mechanical' shorting opportunity -- either at the red line (22.65), or possibly the green (23.80).  The first trade was elected last week and on Friday was slightly profitable. It would take a stop-loss at 23.42, although I'm not suggesting doing the trade belatedly. If the rally continues to the green line, the stop on a short there would be just above  the 'C' high, at 24.95. We may attempt it, so stay tuned to the chat room. Short-term, your bias should lean bullish.

Bertie uncoiled Friday like a cobra trying to snatch a bird from the air. To leave no doubt about intentions, DaBoyz closed Birdie above the 48,000 'midpoint pivot', a preliminary sign that it's on its way to the 55,822 target. The pattern is a good one for 'mechanical' trades, especially since only one such signal has failed over the time I've tracked this vehicle.  For now, use p2=51,928 as a minimum upside target, and don't be surprised if it gets there before you've had time to plot a strategy. You weren't actually going to trade it anyway, though, were you? Indeed, at these levels, the Big Boys have this creature of the imagination all to themselves. ______ UPDATE (Oct 6. 8:36 p.m.): What a shock. Bertie has traded up to 55,747 tonight, a tenth of a percentage point from a 55,822 target (see above) that might have seemed a tad ambitious to some old-school speculators. Let's see whether bitcoin's book-talking, fat-cat sponsors idle ostentatiously for a day or two before they announce to the world that new record highs are coming.

This sorry sack of suet took off along with just about everything else when Friday's short-squeeze seized the proletarian mind.  The move follows a decent impulse leg that lifted IWM from 214 to 228 in a little more than a week, so we can at least pretend as the new week begins that the rally's going somewhere. The 'D' target at 231.20 is the best I could see for the near term, so use this pattern to trade it, ideally mechanically.  Minimum upside for now is p=224.47. _______ UPDATE (Oct 4, 5:15 p.m.): The 'mechanical' entry is a non-starter so far, since the short-squeeze begun from Friday's low didn't even reach the red line (224.47), let alone our 'sweet spot' for this kind of trade. Any pullback below 217.74 (point 'C') will negate the trade. ______ UPDATE (Oct 6, 8:40): If, as the saying goes, a rising tide lifts all ships, then this concrete garbage barge is about to get a boost from short-covering in some of the hotter indices. Even then, it'll take some strong juju to push the rally above any significant prior peaks. The first lies at 229.84. _______ UPDATE (Oct 7, 11:52 a.m.): Today's short-squeeze leap past p=223.49 has made a follow through to at least 230.22 all but certain.

The chart above shows how bull-market tops are made when nearly everyone is expecting one. That's the case now -- for so many good reasons that I won't bother with a checklist. Just take my word for it: the bull is dying. Most of the reasons the pundits are giving would have us believe the stock market is somehow connected to reality. I won't insult your intelligence with such claptrap, since you get enough of that on CNBC.  I'll simply mention my own good reason for thinking the Big One has begun: The so-far all-time high in QQQ, a speculative vehicle that tracks stocks favored by the chimps and lunatics who pretend to manage your money, hit an all-time high at 382.75 on September 9 that came within three pennies of a target I'd drum-rolled back in January. Stocks have gone steeply downhill since, giving my magic number a fighting chance to nail it. But perhaps not, or at least not yet. For if Mr. Market is going to set the hook as firmly as possible before taking no prisoners, it wouldn't hurt for him to push the broad averages, or at least the lunatic stocks, above the September 9 top that has begun to look so promising to permabears. After such a nasty tumble as occurred last week, new highs could set up a knockout punch much like the one that occurred in IBM. The peak that I've labeled "False top" occurred in mid-2009, and it came within relative inches of a major Hidden Pivot target I'd disseminated to subscribers months earlier. Imagine my elation when IBM dove sharply for eight weeks after getting within spitting distance of my magic number. Unfortunately, I was so busy patting myself on the back that I failed to notice the waxing vigor