Rick Ackerman

Big Blue's impressive leap on Wednesday recalls the scene in The Natural where Roy Hobbs, putting a spectacular end to deep and prolonged batting slump, literally knocks the cover off the ball to give the Knights a walk-off victory. In IBM's case, the stock jumped $15, to an intraday high at 161.23, on news that it had beaten estimates by a whopping two cents per share. More important was that the company foresees earnings growth following a five-year slog of declining sales. From a technical standpoint, the gap above the green line (click on inset) all but guarantees more upside to at least 172.08, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a large, bullish pattern with the potential to get the stock to 205.02. First things first, though.  The stock should be traded with a bullish bias until such time as it hits 172.08. If it pulls back to the green line in a way that meets our criteria for a 'mechanical' trade, I'll signal it in the chat room and via an intraday alert.  Be sure to check "Email Notifications" on your account page if you want to receive these timely guidances. ________ UPDATE (Oct 25, 8:38 p.m. EDT): DaBoyz are doing their best to shake down the stock, but that hasn't made the 172.08 rally target noted above look any less compelling as a minimum upside objective.

I've highlighted the increasingly bullish look of two crucial bellwethers, AMZN and AAPL, in the last two issues of Rick's Picks, since breakaway rallies in either or both would likely energize the broad averages for a move to new record highs. If you want a simple green-light indicator, use a close in the latter stock above 160.97, since that's where buyers will start feeling their oats.

With Apple, the world's most valuable publicly trade company, strongly on the move again, bears had better be extra cautious shorting into the rally regardless of which vehicle they choose.  In the latest updates to my touts (see below) I've identified some high-odds spots to try fading the trend, but only with very tight stops in case the bull-that-won't-correct continues do to what it has been doing for eight-and-a-half years.  For its part, Apple looks bound for at least 165.97, a longstanding target that lies about 4% above Monday's close. If the stock is in fact on its way to new all-time highs, the broad averages are likely to follow.

There's about a 70-point discrepancy between the 231.56 target and the one at 23226 that I've been featuring lately in the DJIA tout (see below).  On balance, I'd use this vehicle to short them both, although in small enough size that you won't feel much pain if the lower of the two Hidden Pivot resistances gets skewered. We never pick tops with the expectation of nailing the exact apex of a 91-month-old bull market, but the fun and excitement of trying is well nigh irresistible. In this case, the delicate sinuousness of the ABCD pattern is what drew my eye to the opportunity._______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 5:08 p.m.): DIA made its intraday high at 231.68, just 12 cents above our rally target. It is a very clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, implying that any easy progress past it, especially ahead of the weekend, should be regarded as very bullish. _______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 8:14 p.m.): Today's dive from within a whisker of my target turned into a swoon when DIA recouped the loss by day's end. Buyers appeared poised to power the Indoos into no-man's-land to end the week, but I'm not ready to give up on the notion that the broad averages are topping here.  Let's see how things play out over the next day or two before we throw in the towel.

Stocks were too quiet during our hour together to offer much in the way of trading opportunities. As always, however. the learning opportunities were there to cherry-pick, including some creative new ways to set up 'counterintuitive' and 'mechanical' entries to reduce initial risk to a small fraction of what it might be otherwise.

I'm tracking a single-contact position with a cost basis that has been reduced by profit-taking to 1204.80. At a current price of 1306.10, that would imply a theoretical gain so far of a little more than $10,000. On Friday, the futures leaped on the opening bar to 1304.90, a single tick from the 1304.80 target I'd sent out the night before.  After a moderate pullback of about $4, they reversed direction and headed higher into the close, topping at 1306.40.  This is bullish price action that implies the uptrend is very likely to continue. My immediate target is 1312.90, provided the futures can push past the 1306.80 midpoint pivot shown (see inset).  If the move through that number is quick and decisive, we should see more progress to as high as 1320.90 over the near term (60-minute, A=1262.80 on 10/6).  Raise the  stop-loss to 1286.70 for now, day order, but plan on hedging the long position with GLD options if and when 1320.90 is closely approached. Specifically, I'll recommend shorting one GLD Nov 3 125 call if GCZ17 is trading above 1319.80.  I estimate the calls will be trading for about 1.30-1.40 if the target is reached within a week. Mark the order good-till-canceled. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 10:35 p.m. EDT): Gold gave up all of Friday's nice gains and then some when the bad guys pounded the futures late in the session for who-knows-what reason. This generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart, but I'll suggest using the 10-minute chart shown to get a precise read on the downtrend's strength. If the 1292.80 midpoint support gives way easily, look for more slippage down to at least d=1287.20. _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 10:08 a.m.): This morning's downdraft stopped out the position by generating an even more powerful impulse

The trend, of course, has been up, although not in a way that can be ridden by traders who take risk management seriously. Each new marginal high has been followed by a dive several times the size of whatever incremental gain could have been made by staying long. In these challenge conditions, we are still preparing to short an important-looking Hidden Pivot resistance at 2561.25 with a stop-loss of (officially) 1.0 point. You can widen it to suit your appetite for risk if you've made some bucks on the way up. For purposes of getting long via a 'mechanical' trigger use the pattern shown. It has already tripped one buy signal at the green line, but the look of it encourages me to think it would work a second time, stop 2539.00. _______ UPDATE (Oct 11, 4:36 p.m. EDT): No change. The 'mechanical' trade suggested above very narrowly missed triggering when the futures came down to within two ticks of the green line (2543.75), generating an intraday low at 2544.25. _______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 6:30 p.m.): Last week's astoundingly boring, ratcheting rally has changed nothing in the outlook and strategy given above. _______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 5:28 p.m.):   The futures topped today at 2562.25, exactly one point above our longstanding target, quickly stopping out the short for a $200 loss on an implied four contracts. If subscribers used the target differently, or even cared about it, no one mentioned it in the chat room._______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 8:20 p.m.): The nearest Hidden Pivot resistance above lies at 2565.50, which would be a marginal new record high. Let's see if this mysterious impediment can reverse the tide. It will have head-fake perfection going for it, since every trader on earth will be quite bullish if the futures break out following today's

The stock broke out of a choppy, week-long consolidation on Friday and now appears headed for the 21o.23 target shown (click on inset).  We've been using that target for nearly two weeks to stay comfortably with the trend, and odds appear very good that it will be achieved. This is so because of the powerful thrust through the 187.23 midpoint resistance on October 5. Although there is no confirmation of the pattern and its target via precise interaction with p, my gut feeling is that NFLX will reverse in tradable fashion from within 0.10-0.20 of 210.23._______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 9:35 p.m.): The stock is headed into serious resistance, not only from the 210.23 target we've been using for the last week to stay on top of a very steep uptrend, but from the 205.02 target shown. The latter comes from a pattern of much larger degree, but its ability to resist the bullish tide will be additive. I'd be surprised if NFLX pushes significantly above the target range, especially on the first try. Pleased note that the higher target is likely to show more-precise stopping power because of the poor quality of the other's point 'A' low. In any event, look for a top of at least intermediate importance not far above. _______ UPDATE (Oct 23, 10:58 p.m.): If NFLX falls to within a dime of the 187.17 target shown before Wednesday's close, buy two Nov 3 190 calls. I estimate they will be trading for around 2.20-2.40 at the time. Stop yourself out if the stock trades below 187.00. _______ UPDATE (Oct 24): The trade recommended above was a non-starter when NFLX failed to dip below 191.

Subscribers staked out call positions on Friday, playing for a bounce from an important-looking Hidden Pivot target at 35.48.  Although we've been waiting patiently for weeks for VXX to fall to that number, assiduously avoiding "averaging down" with our fingers crossed, the bounce we were expecting failed to materialize. Despite this, I suggested taking home some calls over the weekend, since, as I half-joked, the Yellowstone caldera could blow, launching VXX to the moon. My recommendation for Monday is to exit the calls on the opening unless index futures are trading significantly lower ahead of the bell, suggesting a market selloff in the offing. The fact that so very clear and compelling a target as the one at 35.48 was exceeded at all, let alone by a whopping 0.45 points the first time it was touched, strongly implies that lower prices are coming, perhaps significantly lower. Specifically, and assuming the stock market has not crashed Sunday night, I am shifting my gaze to the 26.32 target shown.  That such hitherto unfathomable depths will be achieved is difficult for me to imagine, since it implies that the S&Ps are about to ratchet much higher, extending their hyperbullish parabola for yet another four to six weeks. Yes, there's always the chance that the secondary pivot at 33.81 (see inset) will turn the tide. But the new pattern looks too pretty for us to avoid the conclusion that VXX will eventually fall to an all-but-unthinkable 26.32.  As is our custom, we will take no position in the interim, since doing so only at major Hidden Pivot supports has saved us a lot of stress -- and money -- as VXX has continued to carve out historical new lows routinely for months.______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 10:52 p.m. ED): Yes, I know, I said I