Rick Ackerman

Boeing accounted for most of the Dow's gains in July, arousing my curiosity about how high this blowoff could go before bulls get their comeuppance. The weekly chart suggests 257.36 as a logical topping place (see inset) for this incredible bull run, which began in February 2016 from $102. This Hidden Pivot target is unlikely to produce the kind of penny-precise bullseye we've become used to working with, but it should serve adequately as a minimum upside target for the near term. If the stock gets there, the move would amount to an 8% gain from these levels. I won't explicitly suggest shorting at the target, but we should keep it firmly in mind if BA's ascent continues, since a reversal from there could cap the DJIA's bull market as well.________ UPDATE (Aug 6, 6:30 p.m.): Boeing's vertical trajectory suggests we might have success using a 'mechanical' bid to get long on a pullback to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 215.56. If it happens next week, it will be a no-go, but thereafter, the entry should be attempted and tied to a 201.62 stop-loss. We'll figure out a way to cut the initial risk when the time comes, but the 257.36 target will remain viable in theory regardless of what kind of correction is about to unfold._______UPDATE Aug 9, 7:14 p.m.): The stock has sold off  hard since peaking on July 31 at 246.49, well shy of my target.  The correction looks bound for at least 230.98 (30-min, a=246.49 on 7/31), a Hidden Pivot support that you can bottom-fish as you please with a tight stop-loss. If the support fails badly, it would imply a move severe correction lies ahead._______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 11:20 a.m.): Surprise surprise. Boeing has taken a giant bounce to a so-far high

There's no denying these are quite interesting times, in a Chinese curse sort of way.  Only an asteroid on a collision course with Earth, or an ISIS nuclear detonation, could make the world seem any more interesting than it already is.  Under the circumstances, it's tempting to predict that, any day now, the stock market will recalibrate itself to the grim realities of a civilization in eclipse, and, more urgently, to a Trump presidency dangerously adrift. With the foregoing in mind, I present today a chart that shows DIA, an ETF vehicle that tracks the Dow Industrials, rolling down from on high. There is a lot of white space below it, more than ever before, and that is what makes the chart seem so scary.  Even so, you can see that all such disturbances in the past were ultimately resolved in favor of bulls, usually quickly.  Perhaps that will prove to be the case this time as well. I am watching AAPL in particular to keep me from hitting the panic button prematurely. The stock looks bound for a $168 target that lies $11 above current levels. Assuming it is achieved within he next 3-5 weeks -- a prospect that I would rate a 60-40 bet at the moment -- higher prices lie in store for the broad averages as well. Regardless, if the sharp selloff begun last Wednesday starts to snowball in the days ahead, sending DIA below July 24's 214.68 low, we should brace for a possible avalanche.  We'll be watching the lesser charts in the meantime, so that it does not catch us unawares. We will also look to buy puts on strength, meaning not now, not yet.

Trump's days seem numbered, raising the possibility that the bull market's last hurrah will be in short-lived celebration of Mike Pence's ascent to the presidency.  When Congress' summer recess ends, Trump will face bipartisan hostility, possibly with enough Republican votes to end his tenure in office.  Is impeachment possible?  Presumably yes, since the details of his financial life, never publicly disclosed, are likely to be sufficiently sordid and complex to raise serious questions about propriety. He could also be hounded into resigning, like Nixon, by a news media so obsessed with that goal that only one outcome is possible. In the meantime, expect Trump's administration to increasingly resemble that of Caligula as members of the Senate and his Praetorian Guard maneuver to do him in.

Once again, we looked at several trading opportunities that failed to ripen during our hour together. There is still much on display to enhance one’s repertoire of set-ups that work easily and consistently. There’s also an anecdote about the risks of holding onto to an asset that has greatly appreciated, even if that asset – a house, in this case -- is capable of producing very substantial rental income.

The Dow's intraday low on Thursday came within 0.22 points of the crystal-clear, 21750.54 target shown. I hadn't noticed this because I don't track the Industrial Average diligently, but it is surely worthy of our attention. If the Hidden Pivot support were to get trashed on Friday or next week, it would be the first time that an ostensible correction pattern of daily-chart degree had exceeded its 'd' target since May 2016. The bull market survived that one, but the Indoos were not in nosebleed territory at the time.  They've got much farther to fall now, as you can see in this chart. The roll-down from way on high looks ominous, wouldn't you say? ________ UPDATE (Aug 21, 11:45 p.m.): A strong rally wouldn’t undo the damage done by Friday’s decisive downside penetration of the 21750 target flagged above. The Indoos fared even worse on Monday, with a 21600 low on the opening bar (click here for a chart)  that exceeded my bearish threshold by 150 points. The short squeeze that followed doesn’t look like it will get very far, since DaBoyz have failed for two consecutive days to extract much leverage from brazen shakedowns on the respective opening bars.  This is the clearest bear-market action we’ve seen in the Indoos in many years. Generally speaking, corrective abcd patterns are not supposed to achieve, let alone exceed, their d targets in bull markets, but it has finally happened here. As a result. we should start taking technical signs of weakness more seriously than before. _______ UPDATE (Aug 23, 6:16 p.m.): I don't want to read too much into this, but the Indoos have turned lower after failing to achieve an 'easy' Hidden Pivot midpoint at 21942. It's nothing that a thrust past it on Thursday or Friday wouldn't cure, but

And now we know that there are things impacting negatively on the stock market besides war threats from Kim Jong Un.  I hesitate to infer that Wall Street's obsidian heart is somehow responding to the piddling trauma of Charlottesville and to the spectacle of the news media's continuing, all-out effort to destroy Trump. The editorialists should be careful what they wish for, since the nation seems to be nearing a breaking point. Civil war has actually become thinkable, since the events that occurred in Charlottesville could conceivably occur in any small town in America that has a bronze Confederate soldier on display. If the alt-left's antipathy should take a violent turn toward statues of Washington and Jefferson, then, yes, we might as well call it civil war. At that point, local authorities, outgunned by Soros-equipped brownshirts, will be powerless to resist the blood-dimmed tide.

At Thursday's close, the futures looked likely to achieve a 2415.75 downside target that I posted in the chat room at 13:27, when this vehicle was trading 30 points higher. The target, a Hidden Pivot support of middling importance, is sufficiently clear and compelling that we should expect to see a tradeable bounce from it. However, if the selloff is going to prove to be the start of something much worse, then the September contract should slice through the pivot as though it were not there. Let's see how it goes before we rush to judgment. Regardless, subscribers who were short for the ride down based on my guidance can try bottom-fishing at 2416.00 with a five tick stop-loss. You'll be on your own if the order fills and goes in-the-black.________ UPDATE (Aug 21, 10:42 a.m.):  My target caught this morning's low to the exact penny. Since we risked five ticks on the initial stop-loss, you should have taken profits on half the position, or two contracts, at 2419.50, 15 ticks above where we got long. At a current price of 2422.50, the position is showing a theoretical profit of $1075. ________ UPDATE (12:49 p.m.): Since several subscribers have reported doing the ES trade -- my instruction was detailed, simple, explicit and also nailed the exact low of the day -- I'm establishing a tracking position. For now, I'll assume one contract remaining of an original four, with an effective cost basis of 2401.00. This includes a theoretical profit on two more contracts exited right now for 2427.50. We'll swing for the fences on this one, so use a stop-loss at 2420.50 for now.________ UPDATE (3:20 p.m.): Lower the stop-loss on the ES position to 2418.25. If we exit there, the theoretical profit would be $850. _______ UPDATE (Aug 21,

Wednesday's rally fizzled about midway into the session, giving us good reason to exercise caution as the week draws to a close.  I would be even more careful if the Dow's finishing stroke on Friday leaves it in record-high territory.  Because it would take but a 150-point rally from current levels, it's possible it could happen even if there's not much buying power in evidence.

Gold's tedious shenanigans should not cause us to take our eyes off the little sonofabitch for too long, since we might miss something interesting. Like now, for instance. The December contact has mildly caught fire and is making another run at 1301.20, a very important midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that has stopped promising rallies three times since April, including one earlier this week. This is a very crucial obstacle, since once decisively above it the December contract would be no worse than an even-odds bet to reach 1462.70. How decisively?  Two consecutive weekly closes above the pivot would do the trick, or alternatively an intraday thrust exceeding 1325.00 or so. The chart (see inset) shows the whole picture, including the 1301.20 midpoint pivot that I have revised slightly upward from an earlier 1300.70. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26):  I won't dignify Friday's freakish spasm by 'analyzing' it, but suffice it to say, it changed nothing in the technical picture given above. _______ UPDATE (Aug 28, 7:26 p.m.): December Gold is streaking higher tonight, goosed by news that Kim Jong Un-sane had lobbed a missile over Japan. The so-far top at 1330.00 has surpassed the benchmark given above by $5, raising the odds that this rally is for real. At the very least, it has put into play the 1382.00 'secondary' pivot of the pattern as a minimum upside target for the near term.