Rick Ackerman

A seemingly modest rally target at 1858.60 is still  viable, although the August futures seem in no great hurry to get there.  The 'reverse ABC' pattern shown in the chart would trigger a long if last week's weakness continues down to x=1777.20. However, I have little enthusiasm for gold at the moment and would therefore suggest using the micro-contract if you are uncomfortable with the implied $11,000 of entry risk tied to the full-size contract. At least half the position should be exited if the futures rally from the entry price to the red line (p= 1804.40).  I rate the trade a '6.6' -- worth a try, especially if you can execute it via a much smaller rABC pattern capable of reducing initial risk by perhaps 95%. ______ UPDATE (Jul 29, 3:31 p.m.): Today's encouraging upthrust has shifted my crosshairs cautiously higher, to the 1912.50 target of this reverse pattern. That's $54 above the old target, and it would become an even-odds bet following a two-day close above 1831,30, or an intraday stab exceeding 1850.

The steep rally that occurred between March 2020 and August created an impulse leg with sufficient power that the likelihood of a second rally leg to as high as 40.085 should not be doubted. However, buyers' digestion pains have rankled us for nearly a year, and there can be no guarantees they will end any time soon.  There is still a presumption nevertheless that the futures will achieve a minimum 30.95 (p) without stopping out the 'c' low of the bullish pattern. In the meantime, the best we can do is stake out a long position on the lesser charts when a good opportunity arises. That would allow us to keep half for a swing at the fences. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 9:17 p.m. ET): The gnarly pattern shown in this chart predicted the low precisely. But how long will it last? It took the futures six weeks to get there, so the bounce should be more than just an overnighter.  If not, then the next logical step-down would be to 24.04, a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished in any of the usual ways, including with a bid and a very tight stop-loss.

My astute friend Greg Hunter at USA Watchdog weighed in recently with such a despairing outlook for the dollar that it's probably a good time to determine whether the charts support this view. Here’s the post from his site, which over the years has featured my own thoughts on deflation, the global economy and other topics: The Fed keeps telling us that inflation is going to be transitory, and things will fall in price and go back to normal soon. Nobody is buying this in the real world where people are watching their dollars fall in value and are paying more for just about everything. In simple terms, the dollar is tanking. Maybe this is why JP Morgan is the first big bank (with many to follow) that is putting high-net-worth clients into crypto currencies. Bo Polny says this is all part of a “Jubilee year which began in September of last year and ends in early September of this year.” Polny says, “Expect to see in the next four to five weeks a fall of the dollar, the world’s reserve currency. This could start as early as next week causing a run into tangible asset that include gold, silver and crypto currencies like Bitcoin. All hell is about to break loose on evil.” Sounds ominous, for sure. However, it flatly contradicts a forecast I’ve held to for decades – that deflation would ultimately wreck the global economy, driving the dollar into such scarcity that many, if not most, Americans would have to barter to survive. This may seem hard to believe at the moment, given the Fed’s unprecedented monetary blowout and the illusory prosperity it has created. Most of the digital cash has gone into investable assets, triggering a seemingly unlikely run-up in stocks during a year of Covid

The bull ran out of fumes well shy of an important target at 4413.75 last week, perhaps because the ABC pattern with which it is associated was too obvious to too many, even those who know nothing about the Hidden Pivot Method. It's not as though we are the only traders who see and use such patterns. In any event, the anticlimactic rally leaves open the matter of whether the futures have made a major top. My gut feeling is that they haven't, but I am open to the possibility that a significant downtrend has begun. To avoid being wishy-washy about it, I will keep a close eye on minor, ostensibly corrective downtrends, since the hallmark of a bear market is abcd corrections that routinely start exceeding their 'd' targets. Here is just such a pattern that left the futures dangling in a a crucial spot when the week ended. Another bear giveaway is when rallies fail to achieve their D targets, or still worse, fail to even reach their midpoint (p) Hidden Pivots. We'll be watching for that as well. ______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 6:02 p.m.): Sellers crushed the 4316.00 downside target shown in the chart linked above, suggesting that a major selloff has begun. If you bottom-fished the low, including in DIA, as some subscribers appear to have done, don't be greedy about taking profits. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 1:50 p.m.): I am suspicious of the bounce but have resolved to trade it strictly by-the-numbers. I already missed a great 'mechanical' opportunity to get long yesterday at p=4216, but I don't fancy letting another slip by me. The next could be a short from D=4413.75 (our old friend); or, because the pattern is so obvious, from somewhere just below it. That implies the next high could be a

We're taking long odds on a major top here, attempting to buy Sep 30 250/270/290 put butterfly spreads.  The 0.22-0.25 price range I'd suggested became increasingly inadequate as the week wore on, since a moderate decline in QQQ pushed the spread's mid-price up to around 0.31. Continue to probe the market, being careful to avoid paying up.  However, you should also consider the somewhat riskier strategy I'd outlined at the same time: legging into the spreads, first by buying 290/270 put spreads 1:1.  In the Trading Room, I'd suggested bidding 0.62 initially with QQQ at 362.50, but adjusting by 0.03 deltas. This means raising your bid by a penny for each 33-cent decline in QQQ, or lowering the bid by one cent for every 33-cent rise from 362.50.  To update using the same 0.03 delta adjustment, start with a 0.74-0.75 bid and QQQ at 357.29. The second leg of the spread would entail selling 270/250 put spreads 1:1 if and when QQQ drops. Whatever we receive for them will effectively decrease the cost of the resulting butterfly dollar for dollar. If QQQ were to fall sharply after we've got the first leg on, we could conceivably get the price of the butterfly down to zero or lower, meaning no loss would be possible.  A detailed lesson on butterfly spreads is available free to all subscribers and can be accessed via your account dashboard. Butterfly spreading is the cheapest and least risky way to leverage distant strikes. In this instance, spreads that cost you $50 to $70 apiece have the potential to widen to as much as $2000 if QQQ is at 270 when the options expire in ten weeks.  Please report any fills or failed attempts in the chat room so that I can adjust the bid to suit changing

I've switched to an rABC pattern and a less ambitious target at 1858.60 because gold's trek higher has been so laborious, if not to say tortuous.  Intraday swings have been too nasty and frequent to use a buy-and-hold approach. However, the 'mechanical' set-up shown in the inset is designed to help make it easier on you, at least for a possible short ride from x to p2 or higher, as illustrated. We'll be better able to judge the strength of the uptrend, such as it is, once we've seen buyers interact with the target. ______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 8:35 p.m. ET): No one mentioned this in the chat room, but the trade suggested above was showing a $6000 profit on four lots at today's high. Because I was too preoccupied to signal an exit when gold surged this afternoon, I'll do so now for an $1800 gain on the pullback to 1809.10.

Silver has lagged gold lately and may need to grope its way lower to find good footing. The chart shown is intended to exploit that scenario with an rABC set-up and a point 'c' low positioned at p=25.46.  This Hidden Pivot support is nicely situated in a 'discomfort zone', since, if you look to the left, there are no prior lows that the hoi-polloi would be referencing for structural support. Because we're playing for a turn from p precisely, I've somewhat shortened the a-b interval of the reverse bullish-pattern.  If you don't trade futures and prefer to use SLV, try a tightly stopped bid at 23.46, a midpoint support equivalent to the one in the futures chart. You could also use 'camouflage', call options or rABC to initiate the trade, but don't stick with it if it goes against you more than a little. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 6:14 p.m.): Sellers crushed the midpoint pivot at 25.46, negating our plan to position a point 'c' low there for an rABC buying set-up.  A point 'a' anchored at 25.03, the intraday low, would have triggered a buy at 25.22, with p=25.41, but unless I hear from at least two subscribers who elected the trade, I won't provide tracking guidance. _______ UPDATE (Jul 22, 4:38): Buyers took out one internal peak and two 'externals' on the hourly chart, imply bulls are likely to dominate at least till Sunday evening.

Bitcoin's fat-cat sponsors show no eagerness to let it fall, perhaps because they are loaded up to the gills already and don't want more even at 'bargain' prices.  A test of support at the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at p=27,789, seems likely in any event, and anyone who trades this rabid badger should plan on bottom-fishing there with whatever flavor of 'camouflage' feels comfortable. The tactic itself implies using minor abc patterns to get long or short in places where entry has been signaled on charts of much larger degree. 'Camouflage' can be combined with virtually any other trading system you use in order to further reduce entry risk. For information concerning the mini-course on 'camouflage' set-ups, click here. _______ UPDATE (Jul 21, 12:43 p.m. ET): Buyers have pushed past a minor midpoint resistance, so I've switched to a pattern of larger degree with a 34,335 target where p=31,820. The pattern shows promise if you want to get long 'mechanically' on a nasty swoon.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 12:51 a.m.): Bitcoin has rallied opportunistically through a no-supply zone extending up to around 40,000, but it will face real sellers from here on up -- all losers from the last run-up. The short squeeze tells us that bitcoins handlers are every bit as skillful and vicious as the best and brightest at Goldman, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley. (Actually, they are all bitcoin stakeholders themselves.) In mere hours on Sunday, when most sellers were on the beach, a rally snatched back every penny anyone who had been patiently short for the last month would have made. This will effectively neutralize bears, putting fear in their hearts when DaBoyz decide it's time to take BTC again to new record highs. ______ UPDATE (Jul 27, 9:28 p.m.): Use p=40,963

Bulls spent the week in thin air before exhaustion set in on Friday. Will the downtrend get legs?  The best way to tell is to watch minor corrections, since a growing tendency to overshooting their 'd' targets will imply that the selling is getting stronger. Correspondingly, we should see rallies fail to reach their 'D' targets or even Hidden Pivot midpoints. The 363.15 target given earlier still obtains, and DIA would in fact become a fetching 'mechanical' buy if the pullback comes down to x=340.30. For now, we'll just spectate. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19, 6:37 p.m.): Very heavy selling drove DIA well below the mechanical-buy 'sweet spot' at 340.30. However, using the same a-b coordinates, I allowed the trade anyway when a still ongoing rebound triggered it at 339.68 in the final seconds of the session.  This gambit is riskier than I'd prefer -- not because the bounce won't be sufficiently robust to reach my profit-taking level at 341.99, but because this could conceivably happen in the dead of night. The E-Mini-Dow has already rallied 300 points off the low and would signal a profitable exit if it hits 34,109. Whatever happens, you should plan on taking the entire position off at p=341.99, provided you have access to DIA in off-hours trading; or by shorting the E-Mini futures 'against the box'. As far as I can surmise from discussion in the chat room, no subscribers took the trade. _______ UPDATE (Jul 20, 9:20 a.m.):  The trade worked precisely as anticipated when DIA topped at 342.28, an inch above the red line, in the middle of the night.  Also as expected, it  retreated sharply thereafter, with the E-Mini Dow following exactly the same path. If you did the trade using 400 shares or four contracts, you should be out of it