Rick Ackerman

Bitcoin is sitting exactly where it was in mid-February, unable to achieve a 72,148 target that has been in play since March 3. It has signaled two profitable 'mechanical' longs since then, but I am not recommending that you bid at the green line (50,318) if BRTI should revisit it a third time. That's because cumulative weakness by then would probably be sufficient to demand a test of support at C=43,041.  The midpoint pivot has been the scene of so much angst that a thrust to D any time soon is no longer a good bet, even if that target still rates even odds to be achieved. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 5:16 p.m.): Today's nasty selloff tripped a conventional 'short' signal at 55,128 that is predicated on a downside target of 50,679. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot of a bearish pattern on the daily chart that uses the 64,858 high on April 14 as a point 'A' high. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:55 p.m.): Crazy. If the rally exceeds 59,578, that would negate the bearish pattern noted above and its 50,679 target. However, it would take more than that -- specifically, an uncorrected thrust exceeding April 16's external peak at 62,162 -- to fully recharge the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (May 13, 12:12 a.m.): I've been down on bitcoin recently -- so much so that I recommended not touching this vehicle if it returned to the green line to signal a third 'mechanical' buying opportunity. It did, but because the plunge was caused entirely by news -- Musk is backing away from energy-hungry blockchain money out of kindness toward the environment -- I could almost buy it here.  Almost, but not quite. The 72,148 rally target will remain viable as long as C=43,041 is not violated to

The menacing head-and-shoulders pattern that promised a day or two of reckoning for giddy bulls has deteriorated with the extension of the right shoulder by an additional five daily bars. Since a failed head-and-shoulders top is implicitly bullish, I've redrawn the chart to show a gnarly pattern with a 237.72 rally target. It tripped a textbook-perfect mechanical buy signal at 215.45  on April 20, but I am not suggesting that the green line be re-used if IWM swoons again.  I would, however, be moderately enthused about a p2 (pink line) entry if it is hit on a pullback from a high 3-4 points shy of D. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 5:24 p.m. EST): I'd like to see IWM take out the 208.03 low of the bullish pattern projecting to 237.72 before I wax enthusiastic again about the head-and-shoulders pattern. Let's cross our fingers and hope for the worst.  _______ UPDATE (May 13, 12:58 a.m.):  Some subscribers hold the July 16 175/180/185 put butterfly for 0.10 or less based on a recommendation I made on April 18. Better yet, one subscriber legged on the position for a net CREDIT of 0.01 using my explicitly detailed instructions here a while back. The spread is worth about 0.15 as a result of  this week's plunge, but IWM will need to fall below 200 by early June before the spreads get perky enough to let us cash out of half for twice what we paid, as is our custom. Please let me know in the chat room if you hold the spread so that I can gauge subscriber enthusiasm for it. [Not high, evidently, since only three subscribers have reported positions. I will continue to offer tracking guidance nonetheless.]

Back-to-back rallies on Thursday and Friday eviscerated the 345.22 rally target we've been using since late March, but it will face two more obstacles over the near term that are nearly as daunting. The first lies at 347.77 and comes from lowering the point 'A' of the original pattern. The second, also a Hidden Pivot resistance, is at 349.89, derived from a much larger pattern begun in October from 261. The latter target can be shorted using out-of-the money puts priced under 0.60 if and when DIA gets to 349.72.  This will be akin to catching a speeding bullet, so a tight stop-loss and relatively small bet are advised. ______ UPDATE (May 10, 5:32 p.m.): DaBoyz artfully laid off pounding the Dow to avoid the appearance of a stock market getting schmeissed. The Smart Guys will get creamed on Tuesday if they attempt this dog-and-pony show with the broad averages  falling as hard as they did on Monday. Since the bull-trap high early in the session obliterated my 349.89 rally target before things went south, I've substituted another pattern furnished by an eagle-eyed Pivoteer, 'Ovcactus', in the Trading Room. Its 354.89 target leaves us room to consider 'mechanically' bottom-fishing at p2=348.32 (no!); at p=337.36 (maybe); or at x=329.19 (for sure, although we'd only be shooting for a ride back to p).  ______ UPDATE (May 13, 12:34 a.m.): The 'mechanical' long from x=329.19 is still a go, but be aware that this will require a 'full monty' stop-loss just below C=320.62.  Monday's high at 351.09 could be an important one, and that's why I am not suggesting that a long position acquired at X be held for anything more than a ride up to 337.76. I rate the trade '6.8', implying a 68% chance of getting from x to p -- not

The Cubes tripped a mechanical buy at the red line (326.27) last week, but I did not recommend the trade because it looked significantly riskier than bidding at the green line. The subsequent bounce from the higher level looks likely to reach the secondary Hidden Pivot at 340.66, but I'll be curious to see whether buyers have enough energy left for a quick push to the 355.05 target broached here earlier. If so, they would signal it with a decisive move past p2=340.66, followed by a close above it on the same day. _____ UPDATE (May 10, 5:46 p.m. ET): Honest markets won a rare victory Monday with the drubbing the Cubes suffered. Now they are bound for a minimum 320.06, the 'D' target of this pattern. The A-B impulse leg is textbook-compliant, and that's why the crushing of p=328.36 means that more downside at least to 'D' is a 'definite'. We'll be better able to judge whether bears have run out of guts when we've seen QQQ interact with this fine Hidden Pivot support. Scalpers who know what they're doing and don't flinch when they detect a falling piano coming their way can try bottom-fishing, but the rest of us will be better served by spectating. ______ UPDATE (May 11, 11:01 p.m.): Sellers exceeded my 320.06 target by a not insignificant 1.04 points, suggesting there is more weakness to come. _______ UPDATE (May 13, 12:49 a.m.): Yes, x=311.87 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal, but you'd need a stop-loss at 297.47, and a price objective of just 326.27, not D=355.05. This is not to say the bull market is necessarily over, only that 355.05 could be a long time in coming if it is reached at all. 

I went out on a limb here last week with speculation that maybe, just maybe, the bull market was topping. Alas, the week ended with the usual lunatics in a buying orgy. My bearish hunch was based on technical factors, including a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern in IWM, a vehicle that tracks the small-cap Russell 2000. Unfortunately for permabears, the right shoulder, rather than collapsing, extended for five more bars, stretching its beautiful symmetry into asymmetrical dross, a rubberized Mona Lisa smile. Similarly, the E-Mini S&Ps seemed poised for a long overdue defenestration. It had turned down sharply the previous week after getting within an inch of a major 'Hidden Pivot' resistance. By Friday's close, however, bulls we back in charge. In both cases, the chimpanzees who manage your and Other People's Money provided much of the buoyancy. But when mere buoyancy turned incipiently ballistic around mid-week, the buying spree began to squeeze bears who are ever fearful of the next Pamplona next week.   With the Fed going full-throttle and Joe Biden outspending FDR by untold trillions, who would dare bet against the most spectacular asset bubble ever? Add share buybacks to the Guvmint's explosive mix of monetary and fiscal derangement, and it becomes difficult to imagine how the bull market could possibly end. Apple's announced $50 billion buyback alone is probably sufficient to give the illusion of solvency to Illinois's bankrupt pension system, and to pad the resumes of half the chimps on Wall Street.   And yet, there was bitcoin, the most deranged speculative vehicle of of them all, acting like there might actually be a tomorrow. It has been bouncing around since early March, making engine noises like a dragster torqued to scream. But the amber light has been flashing

We went out on a limb here last week with speculation that, just maybe, the bull market was topping. Alas, Friday ended with a short-covering orgy that bloodied bears, leaving the boldest of them festooned on the ropes. My hunch had been rooted in technical factors, including an ominous head-and-shoulders pattern that has been evolving since January in IWM, a vehicle that tracks the small-cap Russell 2000. Unfortunately for bears, rather than dropping into a steep dive like the textbook says it should have, the index tacked on five new bars to the right shoulder, turning its promising symmetry into asymmetrical dross -- a mocking, rubberized Mona Lisa smile. Similarly, the E-Mini S&Ps had seemed well poised for a long overdue plunge. They'd turned down sharply the week before after getting within an inch of a major 'Hidden Pivot' resistance that was capable in theory of stopping a buying stampede. By Friday's close, however, El Toro had gored the resistance and was snorting flames. In both instances, the geniuses who purport to be "managing" your and Other People's Money provided bullish spin and buoyancy. But when the rally threatened to turn ballistic on Thursday, bears scrambled to buy 'em back lest they get trampled this week by Wall Street's recurrent homage to Pamplona. Can you blame them for panicking? With the Fed monetizing full-tilt and Joe Biden hawking a version of the New Deal that makes FDR's look miserly, who would be so foolhardy as to bet against the asset bubble? Add corporate share buybacks to the raucous mix of monetary and fiscal stimulus and it becomes difficult to imagine how the bull market could possibly end. Apple's announced $50 billion buyback alone will help sustain the illusion of health in the U.S. pension system while eliciting more unearned huzzahs

For hopeful bears, so far so good. IWM is looking increasingly toppy for two reasons: 1) a menacing head-and-shoulders pattern veered south on Friday just as it was about to get timed out; and 2) the ETF has failed so far to push above a very long-term target at 234.82 that was first hit -- very precisely -- six weeks ago.  Taken together, these signs of weakness have placed the burden of proof on bulls. They could still knock bears on their ass with a close this week above last week's high, but until such time as that happens we should maintain a bearish trading bias. If you still hold any put butterflies, please let me know in the chat room so that I can provide further guidance. ______ UPDATE (May 3, 10:04 p.m. ET): Subscribers reported butterfly positions centered on the 180 strike and expiring around mid-July. These puts spreads were purchased for around 0.15, so there is little at risk. For now, do nothing further. ______ UPDATE (May 4, 4:51 p.m.):  Sellers etched more shapeliness into an increasingly bearish right shoulder of  the H&S pattern noted above. If it fulfills its potential, we should see a drop over the next 5-8 days to around 205, where the left shoulder began. Here's an updated chart. 

Bulls are in a dangerous spot, if such a thing were possible in the midst of a relentless, historical buying mania. Last week's record high fell midway between two targets I'd given, respectively, at 4200.44 and 4222.82. Both are 'secondary Hidden Pivots', which we've seen produce a fair number of fatal stalls when they were hit precisely and not exceeded soon thereafter. The lower number comes from a pattern stretching back to the start of the pandemic rally and is tied to a 4536.50 target that lies 8.5% above.  The higher number (4222.82) is tied to the bull market's 2009 low and a pattern projecting to 4905.75. That is the highest target I can project without reaching back to 1932. As always, a decisive push through a clear Hidden Pivot level such as the ones given above implies the next is likely to be reached. We'll be watching in any case. _____ UPDATE (May 4, 8:34 a.m. ET): The secondary pivot at 4200.44 is visually holding like a rock so far, after 17 days. Here's a picture. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 4:59 p.m.):  DaBoyz squeezed shorts in the final minutes of the session, recouping more than half of the day's worst losses.  Even at the 4120.50 intraday bottom, however, sellers failed to breach any prior lows on the daily chart. That would take a print beneath 4110.50, a good place for hopeful bears to set an alert.

Friday's surge to 57,421 effectively fulfilled a 57,595 target we've been using as a minimum upside projection for nearly a month. It also extended an unbroken string of profitable 'mechanical' trade recommendations in this vehicle stretching back to 2017 and sub-$4,000 prices.  The still-unachieved 'D' target lies at 72,148, but it is not so certain a bet as it was  five weeks ago, when this bitcoin proxy tripped a second 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the green line. The first should have sent it to 'D' straightaway but instead produced a trend failure at p2=64,871 followed by a wicked dive. Although D still looks to me like an odds-on bet to be achieved, it is no longer the done deal that bitcoin puffery might assume, nor is the further prospect of much crazier heights certain. ______ UPDATE (May 4, 5:03): The bullish pattern begun in late March has yielded two profitable 'mechanical' trades on pullbacks to the green line (50,318). However, as I tried to make clear during today's 'requests' session, I am not keen on trying this a third time.