Rick Ackerman

The futures spent three days consolidating for a pre-Easter push toward the 4103.25 rally target first flagged here a week ago. It remains valid and should be achieved by no later than midweek. As always, an easy move past so compelling a Hidden Pivot resistance would imply that still-higher prices are coming. The futures have not pulled back enough to permit a 'mechanical' entry, but we should be alert to the opportunity as the new week begins. It would require a pullback from the pink line to the red, ideally within the space of a 24-hour period. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 8:25 p.m.): At press time, the futures were slithering to within inches of the 4103.25 target. You can short it using the tight rABC pattern shown in this chart. I would suggest 'dropping anchor' with a point 'c' high only when the futures have reached 4102.75 or higher.  The small a-b segment of this 'reverse' set-up will limit risk to a theoretical $150 or so per contract -- about all the trade is worth, considering that we'll be fading a tsunami of crazed buying.

Last week's subdued price action failed to push DIA past the 332.99 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown, so the 345.58 [corrected] rally target given here earlier is still not fully in play.  It would be, however, following a two-day close above p or a sharp move through it intraday. A theoretical buy signal has nonetheless been in effect for ten days after triggering with a rally to the green line. However, it may be asking too for DIA to revisit the line to give us a second chance to get long 'mechanically'. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:36 p.m. EDT): The lunatic leap through p=333.10 on the opening bar implies that more upside to at least D=345.58 over the near term is all but certain.  [Note: Both of these Hidden Pivot resistances have been corrected slightly.] You can short 345.58 aggressively with a tight stop if you've made money on the way up.

Gold tripped a so-so mechanical short Thursday when it rallied to 1730.70, the green line. When I mentioned this in the chat room, I rated the trade a 7.0; however, on closer inspection it is not quite so appealing. For one, the three legs of the pattern are too mellow; and for two, the rally to 'x' began above the sweet spot. Because of the $14,000 initial risk on four contracts, I advised initiating the trade with an 'reverse ABC 'pattern on the hourly chart that has yet to trigger. It would reduce theoretical risk to around $1000. I am now suggesting that you cancel the trade until we've seen how gold opens following a three-day weekend. If the June contract pushes above C=1756.00 it would be as bullish a sign as we've seen in bullion in a while. Alternatively, if the futures relapse you can use 1614.60 as a downside target. That would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long, as far as I'm concerned. _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 6:45 p.m. EDT): This rally looks like doo-doo, with upthrusts that are failing to surpass prior peaks on the hourly chart. I'll take this as mildly bullish, since gold has a nasty habit of reversing when it looks worst, and of dying just when one feels encouraged. 

Biden’s $2.2 trillion ‘infrastructure’ plan is quite ambitious as far as Government boondoggles go. But what if it’s just the Democrats' opening bid? “We can do $10 trillion!” exhorted Alexandria Octavio-Cortez in a wild-eyed remark that is unlikely to be challenged by fellow Democrats or the New York Times.  Even $10 trillion would be chump change, however, if Biden’s Trojan horse for the Green New Deal births the full-Monty environmental and civic transformation envisioned by AOC, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and some other socialist zealots on the Hill. It is ironic that Biden chose Pittsburgh as a backdrop last week to showcase the pandemic era's first fiscal-stimulus monstrosity. Pittsburgh has been a model for urban redevelopment in the post-War era, having avoided getting sucked into an economic quagmire by its dying steel industry. Instead, the 'Iron City' transformed itself into an urban success story with massive investment in health care, banking, higher education, parks and cultural amenities. Is the Federal Government capable of deploying funds so judiciously?  It seems unlikely at a time when America's political leadership has embraced the practice of financing vast Federal outlays with money from trees. Note also that Pittsburgh’s regeneration was achieved over many decades with private investment that sought maximum economic returns. In contrast, Biden's plan seeks maximum political returns and contains little actual spending on potholes. With a partisan emphasis on social engineering, it seems more likely to clone Detroit's dereliction than Pittsburgh's prosperity. 'Racist' Highways Indeed, only a reported 5% of the proposed new trillions is earmarked for the repair of roads and bridges. A significant share of what remains evidently would go toward social tinkering and -- heaven help us! -- improving the weather. That’s what Pete Buttigieg, among others, has in mind, believing as he does that the transportation sector

Bears got ambushed Friday in the final hour, setting up a likely short squeeze to begin the new week. If so, it is just an inch to new record highs that would likely pull the broad averages along. Most significant among them is the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has been feigning weakness for the last six weeks while fund managers rotated funds from growthies to relative 'value' stocks.  The E-Mini S&Ps seem all but certain to move to new heights, but if the FAANGs and other 'lunatic' stocks get in gear with them, bears had better retreat to their bomb shelters. In any case, you can use the 4103.25 target shown in this chart as a minimum upside objective if buyers push this gas bag decisively above p=3973.25 intraday or close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:10 p.m. EDT): The futures have played patticake all week with the 3973 pivot, biding their time until the Archegos disaster blows over. They have lost no ground, however, and appeared revved at today's clos to rally ahead of the three-day weekend.

DIA seems likely to hit new all-time highs this week, considering the ferocious short-squeeze goosing it received in the final hour on Friday. My minimum upside projection would be 335.04, a Hidden Pivot that could conceivably provide scalpers with an opportunity to get short, however briefly. Once above that Hidden Pivot, however, the 345.36 target of an even larger bullish pattern would be in play.  You can use this chart to establish levels for 'mechanical' bids on the way higher. _______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:16 p.m. EDT): Archegos and the stuck tanker cooled the rally, but the Dow is still up for the week. Bulls probably won't risk closing stocks significantly higher ahead of the three-day weekend, but if the world survives till Monday, expect them to hit the ground running.

Two weeks after touching a long-term Hidden Pivot target at 234.82, IWM remains well below it, even after a quintessentially phony short-squeeze on Friday minutes before the closing bell. The rally would begin to look interesting if it can surpass last Wednesday's peak at 221.33, but until that happens the burden of proof will lie with bulls. Each pullback on the intraday charts would need to produce a rally exceeding a prior peak on the hourly chart for new record highs to start looking credible. Above the one at 221.33, they lie respectively at 226.75, 228.60 and 232.93.

I don't usually call attention to head-and-shoulders patterns because they are everywhere one desires to see them. In this case, however, the bullish reverse H&S shown in the chart (see inset) looks too pretty to ignore.  It implies that a rally likely got under way Friday that could push this sack of hot air to a test of all-time highs near 338 recorded in mid-February. If this should occur, the mood on Wall Street would likely be so giddy that we'd need to guard against being suckered into a possible bull trap. It would surely be a doozy, considering how bullish sentiment is.

Gold's lengthy unspooling has become all but insufferable, an arrested bull market doing its best to vex and frustrate even the most patient bulls. My hunch is that the long correction will end with a brutal washout, but even then, the final low would be subject to a Hidden Pivot 'D' support. The one at 1612.30 shown in the chart would qualify, but moreso if the plunge to it is appropriately steep.  Regardless, I'd be tempted to try tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 1683.30 midpoint pivot, or even at p2=1647.60. There are no larger corrective patterns with more authority than the small one shown because the entire slide since last August exceeded no 'external' lows of significance. The small pattern did, however, and that's why I am using it to project a possible bottom. I am not married to the washout scenario, however, and will remain alert to any subtle upturn from p or p2 as a possible watershed low. ______UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:55 a.m. ET): April Gold's plunge this morning through a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1683.30 has shortened the odds of a further fall to D=1612.30, the target given above. Here's a fresh chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:22 p.m.): Let's set the bar at 1735.60, a tick above an 'external' peak made Monday on the way down, before we wax enthusiastic about today's short-squeeze rally. _______UPDATE (Apr 1, 10:17 a.m.): June Gold triggered a 'mechanical' short today at 1720.7, stop 1756.10. It is predicated on a fall to D=1614.60, equivalent to 1735.60, basis June. I would rate the trade '7.0' -- not bad, although the implied $14,000 risk on four contracts calls for a 'camouflage' entry set-up that would reduce that to under $1000 theoretical.  Specifically, an rABC set-up on the hourly chart can be attempted