Rick Ackerman

Been vaccinated yet?  I haven't, although I'm trying not to give friends the impression that I'm making some sort of political statement. That means not emailing them links to every vaccine horror story that surfaces, or to growing evidence that the vaccine may not be all that it's cracked up to be.  That mRNA vaccines have not been well-tested and could conceivably cause bodily harm or death is beyond argument at this point.  That is why I am waiting until most Americans have gotten their shots and reported any side effects before I decide whether to get mine. The person I trust most about this is my personal physician, who also happens to be one of my oldest friends. He was quite confident back in April that the combination of hydroxycholoroquine, zinc and Zithromax was highly effective in treating Covid. This was an unpopular view at the time; indeed, half the country was rejecting it merely because it had Trump's endorsement. However, my friend had already treated two dozen Covid patients, and all but one recovered without getting very sick. The one patient who fared poorly, a mutual friend, had waited until ten days after he'd shown symptoms to start treatment. Two Brothers Part Ways My physician friend had no qualms about getting vaccinated himself, especially since he sees so many patients who are infected. He does a weekly radio show and undoubtedly has influenced many, including some who were as skeptical as I am, to get their shots. However, his brother, a surgeon, has so far chosen not to get vaccinated, mainly because of a bad reaction he once had to a flu vaccine. I'll be monitoring the health and progress of two close friends in particular, since they've been scared to death to leave their homes since lockdowns

This lesson contains the most impressive and illuminating demonstration to date of drilling down on a lesser chart to find almost riskless opportunity. Although I did the trade in real time over a period of about ten minutes, there was no video or audio to allow students to follow my steps. This video has reconstructed the trade after-the-fact, along with my risk-management logic each step of the way. For the record, the trade used the E-Mini S&Ps and a 15-secord bar chart to produce a quick, profit of around $500 with a by-the-numbers mechanical entry.

This is a perfect time to catch up on the best of television, since so many of us are watching more of it these days, particularly on Saturday nights. I've been assiduously avoiding all news for the last month or so and am faintly aware of the impeachment proceedings and Biden's energy pipeline kill-shot only because they were mentioned by subscribers in the Rick's Picks chat room.  My self-imposed news blackout has been as tight as I, a lifelong news junkie and former newspaper editor, can make it. I canceled a subscription to the Wall Street Journal that had run for nearly 40 years, and I don't even watch Tucker anymore, let alone network or local news. Serious collateral damage from the red/blue color war still raging in America has so far amounted to the loss of two friendships, one of them stretching back 65 years.  When I was scheduled for chemo and radiation, my good buddy came down to Florida to see me through a horrific first week that was to have included massive infusions of metal-heavy chemicals and enough X-ray exposure to kill just about any living thing. At the last minute, I opted instead for a so-far successful surgical treatment at M.D. Anderson Center in Houston. This allowed my friend and I to spend the week taking epic walks on the beach, enjoying South Florida's great restaurants, and discovering the pleasures of Delray's Asian massage parlors, a shadowy niche he has spent his adult life exploring. He is from the theater world, a founder of one of the country's most successful non-profits. He is also a self-described anarchist, espousing political views that could not be further from mine. 'A Killer of 450,000 Americans' This was never a problem before Trump. In the end, though, with just a

Although I've identified magnetic targets in the E-Mini Nasdaq and QQQ that lie 12% above, the more modest target at 234.82 shown here, an easy 6% climb, is equally compelling and screams to be shorted.  If it turns out to be a watershed top, that implies NQ and QQQ will both fail at levels midway between p2 and D that I've explicitly mentioned in the current QQQ tout. This target virtually maxes out logical topping possibilities on the long-term chart, since there are no lower point 'A' lows to be found, nor any B-C corrections that are more dramatic. Notice the decisive move through p=165.26 the first time it was hit. This makes the corresponding 234.82 target all but certain to be achieved. It also promises to be a great opportunity to lay in a supply of ultra-low-risk put butterfly spreads for maximum downside leverage when IWM gets there. Until then, all trades should begin with a strongly bullish bias. ______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 3:38 p.m. EST): For now, let's plan on legging into some Mar 19 180/185/ 190 put butterflies. We can start with a 0.15 bid for 24 Mar 19 190/185 put spreads, adjusting that price (and possibly the date) as IWM closely approaches the 234.82 target.  The spread is currently on a bid/asked of 0.22/0.30. (Note: These prices have been changed to reflect a shift to the March 19 expiration). ______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 7:57 p.m.): I never chase a trade, but I am nonetheless concerned that IWM and all broad averages will top without having quite reached my rally targets. The puts have remained out of reach in any event, so we'll have to play it by ear.  In practice, this will mean buying at least a few puts ahead of the weekend on any rally.

I hadn't noticed the 318.30 target shown in the inset, but it jumped out at me when I accidentally imposed a 240-minute chart on DIA. It looks like a great place to try shorting, notwithstanding the higher targets where we are looking for possible tops in IWM, ES and QQQ.  Specifically, I'll suggest buying puts that expire in around two weeks for less than 0.50 when DIA gets within 0.15 of the target. On Friday, with DIA trading around 311, the nearest strike that would meet our criteria was 285. This implies we'll likely be looking at 290s or 295 when the time comes. You can also interpolate by buying SDOW shares, which closed Friday at 11.90.  A midpoint Hidden Pivot support that comes in at exactly 9.45 corresponds closely to the 318.30 DIA target. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 8:04 p.m.): Stay tuned to the chat room, since I'd hate for the Dow to turn down with a vengeance after having gotten within 1% of my target. My recommendation is to buy at least a few puts ahead of the weekend, preferably with this gas-bag in a rally that I am confident will be distributive.

My imagination has failed whenever I've tried to predict the potential Mother of All Tops. We've nailed some nice peaks along the way, usually making a few bucks on the short side before the inevitable reversals occurred. However, the 377.14 target shown in today's chart (see inset) looks like the most promising so far for delivering a big winner. The three coordinates I've used to draw the pattern are elemental and even historical, comprising the 2009 start of the longest bull market in U.S. history, and then the start and finish of the mind-blowing pandemic collapse last February/March.  The 377.14 target is simple and compelling, but also an ambitious stretch for anyone who may have thought the radical change in political leadership would get no honeymoon on Wall Street. This chart allows for a further 12% rally even though 2021 is fraught with potential economic pitfalls and vaccine disappointments that should have made investors far more cautious. Few doubt at this point that they are out of their minds, or that a bear market worthy of the name is long overdue. It will become even more overdue if and when QQQ hits 377.14. The equivalent rally target for the E-Mini Nasdaq is 15351, shown in this chart.  To be extra cautious, let me mention two numbers for the QQQ and the Mini-Nasdaq that reflect, respectively, the midway points between p2 and D: 350.51 and 14262. I am flagging these price points because it would not be unprecedented for a bull market to sputter out in, so-to-speak, the middle of nowhere. Finally, there's this promising target at 13836 in the E-Mini Nasdaq. For short term plays, the pattern looks hard to beat -- not only for shorting D with a very tight stop-loss, but for 'mechanically' buying a pullback to p=13,281.

The well-advertised target at 3938.25 has been in play since mid-November and should be considered highly reliable if you want to try shorting with a very tight stop-loss. It was not possible to 'guarantee' the target would be reached because it took quite a struggle for bulls to hoist the futures decisively above the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 3717.25.  Now that ES is trading well above p2, however, the target should be considered a lock-up. This favorite pattern is characterized by a short, relatively quick ABC phase followed by a seemingly endless dirge along the C-D leg to D.  It is particularly useful to us because the out-of-symmetry AB and CD legs tend to throw chartists who use 1-2-3 Gartley-type formations off the scent of a target that often works precisely.  For our purposes, it can serve as a place to try shorting, even though I have higher targets outstanding in IWM, an ETF vehicle that tracks the Russell 20o0 small-caps, QQQ and NQ. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 8:27 p.m. EST): The recent high at 3928 missed my longstanding target by 10 points, or 0.2%.  If the weakness that has ensued gets legs, look for it to continue down to at least 3879.00. The pattern can be used to short ES 'mechanically'. As always, an easy move through D would portend still lower prices.  Here's the chart.

The 48,834 rally target we've been using is still tracking nicely, although it would take a decisive pop above p=38,822 to make the target an odds-on bet to be achieved. So far, buyers have merely head-butted the red line without penetrating it. Last week's 18736 high came close enough, though, that any pullback to the green line (x=33,816) should be regarded as an opportunity to get long 'mechanically'. The appropriate stop-loss would be at 28,809, a tick below the pattern's point 'C' low.  I would like to track a second, cheaper crypto vehicle here, so please let me know in the chat room what your favorites are.  GBTC, the vehicle I've been using, has the drawback of trading only during daytime hours. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 1:23 p.m. EST): In GBTC, The gap through p=43.03 to start the week has all but guaranteed that D=57.70 will be reached. Given the high quality of the pattern, I would also expect a tradeable pullback precisely from that Hidden Pivot resistance. The equivalent target in $BRTI is 53,169. ______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 9:42 a.m.): No change. BRTI's most recent leap came within 1% of the 48834 target, so it should be considered fulfilled. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 7:12 p.m.): Today's bullish spasm hit 48,672, just 0.2% from my target, but it will take a two-day close above it to put 53,169 solidly in play.

Gold turned last week from within an inch of a secondary pivot at 1782.10 that I'd drum-rolled in the chat room. It was an afterthought, although I sometimes like to half-joke that all vehicles in all time frames, whether trending up or down, tend to reverse at p2. The rebound picked up steam on Friday, but we should wait at least until it exceeds the green line (1846.60) before breaking out a bottle of Ripple to celebrate.  This would generate a moderately appealing 'mechanical' short, although I'll suggest letting it pass, since gold is not actually weak, just rigged to appear that way. That implies the 1749.80 downside target (see inset) will not be reached, but we'll let the chart speak for itself rather than guess about the future. ______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 7:50 p.m.): The asphyxiating southbound slog since August's $2107 high will likely have been nearly as unsatisfying for bears as for bulls, since it has amounted to a mere 10% pullback, punctuated by feisty rallies to nowhere, over the six-month period. The futures tripped a mechanical short today with a rally to the green line (1846.60), but it doesn't feel like a winner. I guess that makes me slightly bullish for the near term, since it implies a pop above C=1878.90. _______ UPDATE (Feb 11, 7:16 p.m.): The 'mechanical' short is up $1900 per contract at the moment, but 1814.40 is where it should be covered,for a gain of $3200. Use an 1840.00 stop-loss for now.