I've switched to a less ambitious pattern for two reasons: 1) this one produced two pullbacks from close to p, validating the pattern itself and its D target at 332.14; and 2) the target is less than three points from the 329.40 midpoint of the old pattern, effectively creating a double resistance. The Cubes look well energized to succeed, especially if the momentum of the last three sessions carries a day or two into this week. Our best bet for getting aboard will be by way of a 'mechanical' set-up encompassing the rightmost bars. Most immediately, a swoon to 309.48 would trip the signal, stop 305.17 (daily, A=298.09 on 12/10; B= 315.29 on 1/4). _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 5:33 p.m. EST): Cancel the bid, since another trade triggered at the red line and has taken off after narrowly missing getting stopped out. A 322.38 rally target obtains, the D of a smaller pattern than the one yielding 332.14. ______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 6;44 p.m.): Following my suggestion in the chat room today, subscribers took small, bearish positions using puts of their choosing below the 300 strike and expiring around mid-February. This will help augment a small speculative position we hold in IWM in case inaugural week doesn't go as smoothly as nearly everyone seems to expect. ______ UPDATE (Jan 20, 8:27 p.m.): Buyers smoked the 322.38 Hidden Pivot so badly that they seem unstoppable. I always provide a new price target when this happens, buy in this case the obvious number is difficult to imagine: 382.75. Here's the chart, but let's wait and see if p=321.43 is left choking on dust by week's end. That would add to the likelihood of 382.75 being reached.
To put Friday's gratuitous dive in perspective, it did not even erase the week's gains, much less generate an impulse leg of significant degree. The bull market begun in March remains visually intact, biding its time until a change in the headlines signals the kind of real trouble that could rekindle interest in bullion. In the meantime, the perception that Biden will try to one-up his predecessors, including Trump, with The Mother of All Stimulus Packages will at least keep bullion buoyant. This is notwithstanding the current climate of uncertainty, which has allowed the scumballs who manipulate silver prices for a living to create and briefly leverage the impression that the switch to Democrats will somehow be bad for gold and silver. Returning to the chart, the futures signaled theoretical upside to at least p=29.67 when they touched the green line in mid-October. Now buyers will need to hit p and pull back to the line to trip a 'mechanical' buy signal of significant degree. Fortunately, we're in no hurry for great opportunities to materialize. _______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 6:53 p.m.): Silver has looked slightly less fatigued than gold lately, which isn't saying much. The March contract tripped a theoretical buy signal predicated on the p=29.67 rally target given above, but that was three months ago, and bullion has been in a dirge since, biding time.
[Note: This essay ran earlier in the week but I am re-running it because Copper broke out today on the long-term chart, hitting a so-far high of $3.71. RA] Copper prices are up 75% since cratering in March at $1.97 a pound. Since 'doctor' copper, with a supposed PhD. in economics, has a reputation for accurately predicting growth trends, does this mean a global boom is at hand? This seems most unlikely, given the vast expansion of public debt used to temporarily counteract the economic effects of the pandemic. The debt, many trillions of dollars' worth, is the direct cost of supposed stimulus, which, as any idiot can see, has catalyzed asset inflation rather than any real economic growth. Unfortunately, when the party ends there is no way we will evade repayment, even if it means depreciating the dollar to zero via hyperinflation. There is only one alternative, a deflation that would effectively cancel all debts with a wave of bankruptcies at every level of the economy: public, corporate and private. Neither path is palatable, but it is virtually certain that one or the other, or perhaps both sequentially, will occur, since our collective debts have grown far too large to repay with hard money. Purely Speculative Concerning the chart, it shows that copper prices have stalled in a very crucial place, precisely at a $3.63/pound 'midpoint Hidden Pivot'. If the rally had instead impaled the resistance or gapped through it on first contact, it would have implied beyond doubt that prices were headed to the pattern's $5.33 target. That would be an all-time high and in theory indicative of strong global demand for copper. Could that possibly be right? No, it could not; far more likely is that it would reflect a blowoff in purely speculative demand for tangible
Interesting times, for sure, but apparently not quite interesting enough to dampen the ardor of wildly exuberant buyers on Wall Street. With patriots storming the doors of the Capitol and a reported shooting inside the building, the Dow Industrials still managed to finish the day with an immoderate gain of 438 points. Do the institutional chimpanzees who were doing most of the buying know something we don't? More likely is that, because they get their news from MSNBC and the networks, they were ignorant of certain developments that could profoundly unsettle America. Read all three parts of this remarkable exposé to understand just how serious the crisis could become. If you've been puzzled by Vice President Pence's bizarre willingness to certify an election that he surely knows employed massive fraud to turn him and his boss out of office, the linked story provides a compelling motive. In the meantime, don't expect the patriots to go home any time soon. They blocked the certification of electoral results as intended, and they can probably do it again as long as they remain peacefully within the bounds of the First Amendment. Not surprisingly, the extent of the violence is being exaggerated to a brazen extreme by a news media that saw the torching of Portland as 'mostly peaceful'. For his part, Trump was so forthright in telling them all to go home that the news media will have difficulty convincing even the most ignorant viewers that he incited violence. If you want to better understand what is going on and what is about to unfold, listen to the news with a skeptical ear. They have been wrong about everything so far, and they will be just as wrong underestimating the extent to which the world-shaking events of the next few weeks were planned
I haven't featured the Russell 2000 ETF on the home page because I did not want to queer a 199.25 target that had looked very promising. IWM has since exceeded it by nearly two points, an overshoot that is probably, although not quite necessarily, sufficient for us to infer that still higher prices lie ahead. Accordingly, I am presenting a new chart with a D target at 213.16 that can serve our purposes for now. A pullback to p=190.75 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 183.21, but I am not going to recommend the trade because it looks too risky. Instead, I'll suggest getting long at x=179.55 if the opportunity arises. The pattern is a gnarly as they come, but those of you who have taken the Hidden Pivot Course will recognize it as capable of identifying a major top very accurately. The key to the pattern is the textbook legitimacy of the point 'B' high, which exceeded an 'external' peak recorded last February. For now, we hold some Feb 19 put butterfly spreads centered on the 150 and 160 strikes that will require no attention or adjustment, just a little luck. ______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 6:16 p.m. EST): On the first trading day of the new year, bears blew a seasonal opportunity to go on the attack for a rare change. Instead, they eked out a modest decline that hinted of more skirmishes as the week wears on. Freakish news could be their best hope, but we should be careful what we wish for. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 10:26 p.m.): As expected, IWM is closing fast on the 213.16 target. No 'mechanical' buying opportunities have arisen on the daily chart, although there was one near-miss. Go short at 213.20 using puts if you've made money on the way up.
The pattern shown looks like a winner no matter what your purpose. Most immediately, there is the prospect of a juicy 'mechanical' buy if DIA pulls back to x from our 'sweet spot' just above the red line. We cannot yet be confident that D=327.27 will be reached, but it would be solidly in play if buyers push this gas-bag easily past p=308.23, For the time being, that midpoint pivot can serve as our minimum upside objective. It is a surprise that DIA, QQQ and IWM, if not yet the E-Mini S&PS, have all exceeded what looked like robust Hidden Pivot resistances. It's still possible stocks will fall coming out of the gate Sunday night, but the evidence so far suggests that buying power remains at psychotic levels, seemingly inexhaustible. For now, we'll do nothing to augment a small speculative position in out-of-the-money puts. ______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 10:44 p.m. EST): Bulls are steaming toward the 327.27 target at full speed, but you should use p2=317.75 for the time being as a minimum upside target so that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves with easy assumptions.
The futures' balky approach to the 3767.25 target over the last couple of weeks suggests this 'hidden' resistance is not likely to give way easily. Moreover, the pattern itself is compelling and even a little gnarly -- enough so that we might infer that a short-able pullback is likely from the D target or very close to it. Was last week's 3753 high close enough? I doubt it, and for that reason I will suggest waiting until it is actually touched, or approached within 1.50 points, before we start looking for an 'rABC' set-up to open a low-risk short position. Stay tuned to the chat room if you're interested. ______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:30 p.m. EST): Apologies, since it is with 20-20 hindsight that I belatedly presented this sweet rABC set-up this morning in the chat room. A point I made at the time bears repeating, to wit: The more certain you are of a precise turn from 'D', the narrower the A-B interval you need to get the job done. Please note as well that the rABC pattern can be used predictively in the same ways we use conventional ABC patterns. In this case, the decisive breach of p=3716 on the way down affirmed that the downtrend was almost certain to reach D=3659.75. ______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 10:51 p.m.): The pattern shown leaves little room for doubt about where this relentless rally is headed. Opportunities to get aboard have been discoverable on the intraday charts, but so far there have been none signaled on the daily chart.
This popular, low-priced bitcoin vehicle is on a 'mechanical' buy signal triggered last week at 29.39. The relevant pattern (see inset) is predicated on a rally target at 38.20 that looks all but certain to be achieved, notwithstanding the apparent struggle to get past the 32.33 midpoint resistance. I have updated my trading guidance in the chat room, recommending that half the position already be covered at 32.33, and another 25% if and when p2=35.26 is reached. A corresponding target in $BRTI lies at 33,600 and is shown in this chart. It can be used a a minimum upside objective for the near term, although at the rate bitcoin quotes are rising, a blowoff could get it there in mere hours. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 6:51 a.m. EST): A spike to 34404 occurred, not in hours, but the very instant $BRTI resumed trading Sunday morning. The 2.3% overshoot of my target, which was calculated after the close on Friday, implies the spectacular selloff to 27926 that has occurred since is merely corrective. BRTI is moving so violently that it is impossible to predict the price at which its day-session cousin, GBTC, will open. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:48 p.m.): Don't sneer when some little twerp weaned on a robinhood platform predicts on TV that bitcoin will eventually hit 100,000. The rally in cryptocurrencies make's RCA's chart from the 1920s look pretty boring in comparison. BRTI recoups steep selloffs so quickly -- is doing so at this very moment -- that it ranks as one of the most spectacular speculative vehicles of all time. Indeed, it is a perfect analog for the steroid-addled psychoses that have been driving the bull market since March. _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 7:09 p.m.): No bitcoin rally target survives for long, but we still have to
The Cubes so far have exceeded my 312.29 target only slightly, but we should be prepared nonetheless for a resumption of the rally to the next logical Hidden Pivot, a 329.40 midpoint resistance that lies 5% above these levels. The pattern is not quite pretty enough, nor the point 'A' low distinctive enough, to make 329.40 a no-brainer spot to get short, but we can attempt it anyway with a small put position initiated with QQQ within a point or two from the target. The pattern looks appealing for getting long 'mechanically' at the green line, but we'd need quite a correction to make that possible. For now, continue to sit on the Feb 19 240/250/260 put butterfly spreads we acquired last week for a pittance. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:53 p.m.): With the S&P futures' downturn from a hair above my target, an important top today in this vehicle has become more plausible. Let's see what a couple of big-news days adds to the picture. ______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 11:05 p.m.): An important top at 312.29?? I must have been on drugs when I wrote that.
The somewhat persuasive trendline shown in the chart yields a 1931.70 rally target at week's end that sits about 2% above current levels. I'd suggest using this number as a minimum upside objective, since the trendline looks more interesting than any Hidden Pivot patterns I can offer you at the moment. There is one projecting to 1949.80 (daily, A =1820.00 on 12/14), however, that appears serviceable as a minimum 'extension' target if 1931.80 should be easily pushed aside. Either of these number can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 0.80 points if you've made money on the way up. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 7:59 p.m.): Today's so-far high has gotten within 0.60 of the 1949.80 target. Now, the 1967.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in this chart promises to take the guesswork out of what's coming next. You can make it your minimum upside objective for the very near term. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:02 p.m.): The intraday high of today's bull-trap rally failed not only to reach our p=1967.10 benchmark, it also failed to clear the 1973.30 'external' peak recorded on 11/9. I believe that gold sellers got the news wrong today and that the weakness was an opportunistic sucker punch. Even so, the technical warning signs are not to be ignored, so let's stipulate that the futures must close for two consecutive days above p, or trade more than $15 above it intraday, to earn back our confidence.
