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We hold ten Nov 6 130 puts for 0.16 as a hedge against a Biden victory, but they will offer scant consolation if the tragedy of a Biden/Harris administration comes to pass. I consider this improbable, however, and the likelihood of Trump's re-election would be confirmed if IWM exceeds the 169.39 target shown with a manic leap. It looked as though buyers were developing thrust for this last week, when would-be resistance at p2=160.36 was gradually turned into support. The Russell 2000 and the Industrial Average have lagged the Nasdaq 100 since March, but they appear eager to make up for lost time. A strong across-the-board rally this week would imply that investors have finally realized the pollsters are the same nitwits they were in 2016. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 9:56 p.m. ET): Sell half your puts if they double in price. They traded back up to 0.16 today, and although that is our official entry price, some subscribers reported getting in for as little as 0.08. _____ UPDATE (Oct 28, 11:11 p.m) With stocks plunging today, the puts traded as high as 0.35, allowing some subscribers to as much as quadruple their initial stake. At the very least, using an 'official' price of 0.16 representing the worst actual fill reported on entry, subscribers would have been able to double out of half of their positions at 0.32 as advised. Now offer three more puts to close for 1.10 and keeping the remaining two until next week. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:38):  The talking heads said investors were 'hopeful' for a few hours today that Biden stimulus will be good for small-caps. Not much we can do about it but sit tight. The puts have some critical time left on them.

Yet another October surprise!  I'm not referring to the rock-solid evidence that surfaced last week linking Sleazy Joe directly to his son's shady business deals and the huge kickbacks they've generated over the years. No, I'm talking about something even more unexpected: It's becoming cool for African Americans to vote for Trump and to openly support him. Rapper Kanye West started things rolling in April with a full-throated endorsement that caused jaws to drop in the entertainment world. He took a lot of heat for it but stood his ground, contending the Trump had done more for blacks in three short years than the Democrats have accomplished since the Civil Rights Act became law more than 50 years ago.  Although Kanye later decided to run or president himself, his pro-Trump message continued to reverberate in the black community. Now it has emboldened some of the rap world's biggest stars, including Ice Cube and 50 Cent, to openly declare their support for Trump. After checking out Biden's tax proposal, the latter reportedly was concerned it would reduce him to 20 Cent. His endorsement, along with a few others that have followed, including most recently from Waka Flocka Flame, have helped push the President's approval rating among African Americans to 46%, up from 25% just a week ago. This is according to the latest Rasmussen survey, and even if these numbers turn out to have been way off, no one doubts that Trump has picked up a significant number of African American votes since 2016. Undeniable Job Gains Biden's miserable performance in the second debate, including a half-dozen lapses into senile babble, undoubtedly contributed to the Rasmussen result. But there is something far bigger at work. It began in the streets of Seattle and Portland last summer, when riots aimed at "the

Bulls are straining to hold shares aloft, but we haven't seen sufficient weakness to infer that the stock market smells a Biden victory. That would be a catastrophe for Wall Street, even if some pundits insist investors might actually prefer him. We now have fake opinions, it would seem, to supplement fake news intended to support Biden. Investors needn't worry in any event, since there is no credible logic to support polls that show Biden leading comfortably.  It evaporates when you factor in millions of Trump supporters who'd rather not talk about it with Gallup, Quinnipiac et al. Why risk having a fiery jack-o-lantern heaved through your living room window, or getting 'keyed' by some Biden partisan who doesn't agree with your MAGA bumper sticker? The so-called low-propensity voters may not be very visible, but there are assuredly plenty of them out there. They will put Trump comfortably enough over the top to moot the inevitable post-election recounts. Reasons for a Trump Landslide In the meantime, the supposed experts have been combing through election data precinct-by-precinct in a half-dozen populous states, trying to discern a predictive pattern.  Most of these guys couldn't find a pattern in an Amish quilt. It's not that hard, guys. Really. Just a few simple assumptions support not merely the prospect of a Trump win, but a Trump landslide. To wit: 1) virtually everyone who voted for Trump in 2016 is going to vote for him again; 2) many millions who didn't will this time because Trump's accomplishments have benefited them materially. Most are better off financially than they were under Obama, even with Covid depressing the economy. Aren't you? 3)  Joe is much more congenial than Hillary, and this will count for something at the ballot box; but 4) it will be more than offset

The 12,808 rally target that we used last week is still in play even though bulls couldn't push this hoax to the secondary pivot at 12,271. The futures got  close enough, however, to warrant a 'mechanical' bid at 11,734. A low on Thursday at 11,736 could have been used for this purpose, and a trade initiated there went on to produce a hypothetical gain of about $1200 per contract. We'd be getting sloppy seconds if the December contract revisits the red line, but my gut feeling is that any overshoot would not reach the stop-loss at 11,376. Even so, I'll suggest using an rABC set-up on the five-minute chart or less to trigger the trade. The 'A-B' segment should be between 200-250 points. _______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 1:05 p.m. ET): The downtrend is closing on p=11,734, where it would trigger a 'mechanical' buy. Here's the rABC I'd suggest using to initiate the trade once p has been touched. Attempt this trade only if you understand why the initial theoretical risk per contract would be around $628; and at what level you would take a partial profit. ______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 8:45 p.m.): The trade detailed in the update above included a graph with the precise rABC set-up to use, and it could not have worked out more perfectly. This gambit produced a gain of $780 per contract in less than 30 minutes for anyone who followed my simple advice. That is the profit on just one contract acquired at the green line and exited at the red. If you'd held four contracts as we often do, and exited at the pattern's D target (where the move topped precisely), your profit on the position would have been $9440.  Since no one mentioned this trade in the chat room, I assume that

After triggering a 'mechanical' buy last week on a pullback to the red line (see inset), DIA turned the trade into an instant winner by surging straightaway to the next level, p2=289.41. It didn't quite get there, but unless news over the weekend is exceedingly grim, short-covering will complete the job. In the meantime, the 297.45 'D' rally target that's been in play for more than two weeks can be used as a minimum upside objective for the week ahead. If and when DIA gets there, you can get short using out-of-the-money put options with a tight stop-loss. Stay tuned to the chat room at the appropriate time for more-specific guidance. _______ UPDATE (Oct 19, 9:08 p.m.): It appears some subscribers may have used p=281.36 to get long on DIA's second dip to it. Since this Hidden Pivot caught the intraday low almost exactly, and because the subsequent bounce hit 282.51, you should have taken at least a partial profit. In any event, you're on your own if you still hold a position. ______ UPDATE (Oct 20, 6:07 p.m.): A couple of subscribers reported nailing down profits as DIA rallied a further 3.53 points before pulling back into the close. This seems wise at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:45 p.m.): You can use this pattern, which projects minimum downside to 279.88, as a road map for Thursday. For the nimble shooter, bottom-fishing is recommended there via cheap (i.e., under 0.60) soon-to-expire calls, tightly stopped. This is a scalp-trade, so don't be shooting for the moon if it goes your way. ______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 4:41 p.m.): The Dow dove early in the session, but the 280.30 low missed hitting our bid by a significant 0.42 points. I see no comparable opportunities for Friday, but you should stay tuned

Gold traders have been beating themselves bloody for nearly a month, creating innumerable price reversals slightly above or below prior highs and lows. This kind of price action reveals that the algos, whom I sometimes refer to as droolers, are so hooked on what we call 'impulse legs' that their supercomputers will often be a step behind traders who think like traders and can second-guess dumb machines. The chart reveals a particular telling instance of trend failure -- one implying that we should favor the bears at the moment even if their edge is slight.  The bearish pattern shown has a midpoint pivot at 1880.80 that can serve as a minimum downside target for now; and a D target at 1822.20. (p2=1851.50). _______ UPDATE (Oct 21, 11:53 p.m.): Price action has become extremely tiresome. Here's a bullish alternative to what I've written above, but I offer it without enthusiasm or encouragement; it is strictly informational.

GDX has been regularly disappointing us for more than two months and is close to doing it again. Although the stock tripped a 'textbook' mechanical buy on Thursday when it pulled back to the green line, it pulled back even more on Friday and ended the week just inches from breaching the point 'C' low of the bullish pattern. I hadn't recommended the trade to begin with because my recent updates placed the burden of proof on bulls. And so it shall remain until such time as buyers can push this cinder block above the 42.54 'external peak recorded September 18 on the way down. I long ago crowdsourced the trading of this vehicle to subscribers because it became an annoyance and a burden to track it. Even so, I will respond to any posts in the chat room seeking guidance for a potential trading opportunity based on the Hidden Pivot Method. _______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 4:47 p.m. ET): Sellers not only destroyed the bullish pattern, they've turned its point 'C' low into a resistance. In any case, I'm relieved to have crowdsourced this cinder block months ago. Lest I tempt you toward despair, however, I should mention that the big picture is still bullish and capable of generating a rally to as high as 51.54. Here's a chart that shows how. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:47 p.m.): Please give me a nudge in the chat room when it's safe to go back in the water. What a disaster! _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:42 p.m.): With today's strong leap, GDX became an odds-on bet to reach the 43.24 midpoint Hidden Pivot  of this pattern. We'll be able to tell better when it gets there whether buyers have bigger plans, implying a further push to as high as 50.47. _______ UPDATE (Nov

Here's a stock-market scenario so outrageous that you may want to consider it, especially if you like longshot bets that are underpriced. Everyone is worried the election will produce no clear winner and that it will take months to sort out the results. Since Wall Street hates uncertainty, especially when the nation's future is at stake, stocks would seem all but certain to plunge, perhaps even more steeply than they did last March. Consumer spending and capital investment would dry up, and America would be cast into an economic slump as severe as the Great Depression. A serious flaw in this sequence of events is that, in point of fact, investors no longer fear uncertainty, no matter how grave. If we needed proof of this, we've seen the stock market shrug off a global pandemic and soar as though the U.S. economy faced little more than an outbreak of measles. Whatever the potential long-range effects of Covid-19, portfolio managers have goosed a high-profile handful of mega-cap stocks into the ozone, treating these world-beating monopolists as though they will continue to operate at full-tilt indefinitely. At War With Antifa But here's the stunner. I've written here before that a Biden/Harris victory would be nearly as bad for the U.S. economy -- and for America -- as a collision with an asteroid. A government that merely talked seriously about implementing some of the loony leftist ideas that surfaced during the campaign would not only put economic growth in eclipse for a generation, it would trigger a secessionist movement capable of destroying the Republic. Red state militias would be at war with Antifa and BLM, and deep-crimson states like Montana, Wyoming and Idaho would stop taking orders from Washington. Fortunately, such chaos is not destined to rule our future because Trump is going

I featured a cautionary headline atop this page for the last two days, but they way stocks have been behaving, we all might as well throw caution to the wind. Technical signs looked quite bearish when the week began, and the way certain stocks and index futures were acting gave me to infer they were headed for a nasty fall.  And fall they did, but by mere inches, not feet. In many trading vehicles, including the E-Mini S&Ps and AAPL, each ratcheting move lower was answered with the bullish equivalent of "Up yours!". The net result is that the downtrend, such as it is, has been well nigh unshortable for anyone not possessing rare patience and brass balls. I hate to break the bad news to all of you permabears, but if three straight days of weakness has pushed the Dow down by only 776 points, the pessimists may as well pack it in. Fortunately, many Rick's Picks subscribers are already locked and loaded for the inevitable bullish reversal via some way-out-of-the-money AAPL butterfly spreads acquired for just $36 apiece. They have the potential to hit $1000 if the stock catches fire yet again between now and November 20, when the calls expire. Members already cashed out of half of the position for twice what they paid, so there is zero risk in holding what remains. That means that whatever the options sell for at any point henceforth will be pure profit.