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The March contract impaled a Hidden Pivot resistance at 160^10 on Friday, all but clinching more upside over the short-to-intermediate term. The ABC pattern used to derive the target is so picture-perfect that we might have expected at least a stall within a tick or two of it. Instead, the futures exceeded the pivot decisively, then went on to close above it. Moreover, the apex of the spiky rally surpassed an even more daunting peak at 160^26 recorded in late October. It did so by only two ticks, but the amount of the overshoot is not important -- only the fact that buyers pushed above it. (Elliott Wave chartists look at this the same way we do, always taking care to distinguish between impulsive and merely corrective moves.) The breakout occurred in conjunction with a similar, albeit more subtle, one in the dollar. Something has changed, that much is clear. ______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:45 p.m. EST): A powerful thrust extended Friday's sharp gains.  Now, if the futures can push decisively past 162^12, a midpoint Hidden Pivot (30-minute, A= 159^10 on 1/24), they should be presumed bound for at least 163^24. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:25 p.m.): T-Bonds reversed sharply as stocks climbed, but their plunge should be viewed as corrective rather than impulsive because of what buyers had accomplished the day before (see above). Now, a pullback to 158^16 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 155^00, predicated on a 168^29 target. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:30 p.m.): The futures took off without pulling back much, let alone to 158^16. However, Friday's strong rally brought them to within an inch of a clear rally target at 164^00, so look for a pullback on Monday.  Alternatively, if buyers should easily brush this Hidden Pivot resistance aside, the March contract can be

It has taken GDX more than four months to carve out a saucer bottom to correct last summer's exuberant excesses. The bullishness of the chart shown is unmistakable, as is the 36.66 target. But first buyers will need to hit achieve 31.32, a midpoint resistance that can serve for now as our minimum upside objective. If it is decisively exceeded, especially on first contact, that would significantly shorten the odds of a continuation to at least p2=33.99, but more probably 36.66. As before, I am looking for help picking an entry spot, since this goal will be best served using an rABC entry set-up intraday.  If you are interested in this stock, don't just say so in the chat room; take a bold step forward and contribute to a common goal. _____ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:01 a.m.): What gratuitous nastiness! Anyway, here's a small bullish pattern with a 30.50 target you can use to trade this vehicle. A pullback to x=28.39 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 27.67. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:53 p.m.): Although there were 60 people in the trading today, only one reported having gotten long according to the instruction above. If a second subscriber chimes in, I'll establish a tracking position of 400 shares; otherwise, GDX will come off the list for lack of interest. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:59 a.m.): The position is 'official'. For now, use a stop-loss at 27.67.  GDX has been swimming against a torrent of money flowing into the usual stocks, but it has been doing it well enough to suggest a gold rally is coming if bull-market mania ever takes a breather. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:28 p.m.): Offer 200 shares to close at 29.42, day order. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 4:35 p.m.): Even when it's in a bull market, gold

Three months after bottoming an inch from a well-advertised Hidden Pivot target at 96.40, the Dollar Index has generated its first bullish impulse leg on the 240-minute chart. This was accomplished with great subtlety, since DXY exceeded the requisite external peak I'd identified by just a penny. That's all it took, though, to transform the balky rally of the last three weeks into a promising new start for the greenback. Now, any retracement that stays above 96.36 will be presumed corrective and therefore a buy. It remains to be seen how much pressure a waxing dollar will put on bullion, but as a chat room denizen noted, gold more than held its own when the dollar rallied sharply in the June-October period. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:05 p.m.): A Hidden Pivot resistance at 98.13 is a logical place for a short-term top. ________ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:04 p.m. EST): DXY dropped 0.22 points after peaking at 98.16, just three cents above my target. Let's see how long the top holds. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:49 p.m.): The selloff from within pennies of the 98.13 target I'd flagged continues to lengthen, but support should come in around 97.10. Let's see how it fares. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:57 p.m.): The dollar got traction at 97.37, well above the support I'd flagged above. This is mildly bullish, but DXY will needed to take out the old high at 98.19 to generate some excitement. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:56 p.m.): The dollar easily cracked  the 98.19 resistance. Now, if it blows past the 98.47 target shown in this chart, it would imply bulls are still rarin' to go. ______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 9:00 p.m.): DXY easily pierced the 98.47 'hidden' resistance, implying that still higher prices are coming. ________ UPDATE (Feb 10, 9:37

Friday's punitive reversal occurred from a high recorded several days earlier that missed a crystal-clear target I'd flagged at 295.62 by a mile. Although the target remains valid in theory, it seems more likely that the selloff will gain momentum this week, generating an impulse leg on the daily chart. That would require a print below 287.84, a threshold that will probably be achieved on Monday's opening if index futures have opened weak Sunday night.  The bearish impulse leg would be no more powerful than the one in early December that gave rise to a powerful rally, but this time it would be occurring in a more critical place --- i.e.,  visibly short of an important target that had the potential to cap the bull cycle begun in October. Regardless, bulls should brace for a fall to at least p=284.62 before they venture forth again.  That would trigger a long-shot 'mechanical' buy in theory, but we would take the trade only with risk very tightly controlled, if at all. ______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:07 p.m. EST): Sellers overshot p=284.62 (see above) by  0.76 points, implying they are not spent. The impulse leg would grow in power if further weakness on Tuesday exceeds 283.56. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:08 p.m.): DIA leapt higher at the bell and never looked back. In retrospect, p=284.62 now looks like a 'mechanical' buying opportunity foregone. Bulls have a tough climb ahead nonetheless if they are going to reach the 295.62 target that was missed by a foot on January 17, when the Dow notched a record high. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:57 p.m.): A tough climb indeed!  DIA reversed sharply from well shy of the 295.62 target identified above and now appears headed down to at least 280.08. Bottom-fish there with a small-pattern rABC pattern,

The buy-the-dips mentality has become so entrenched over the last few months that it's hard to imagine what could possibly derail the bull market. Wall Street feigned mild concern for a few hours over the spread of a deadly virus in China, but absent news that Americans are keeling over dead from it in their back yards, we can expect the broad averages to forge higher.  The uptrend has been so relentless that it has come to practically guarantee a quick return for any investor who jumps aboard on a given day. In no instance during the last three months has any bull  suffered a third straight day of losses.  A strategy as simple as buying the S&Ps whenever they are trading lower for a second consecutive day has been a spectacular winner. Contrarian Bloodfest This has only increased the number of contrarians eager to bet against a trend that has come to seem nearly as predictable as tomorrow's sunrise.  The more contrarians who get slaughtered, the more enticing the seduction of trying to pick The Mother of All Tops. We prefer to use AAPL as a  benchmark -- not to pick THE top, but to nail lesser peaks that can reward short-term bets on the 'Don't Pass' line. But even hitting the swings perfectly has not been paying off lately. The stock is currently in its tenth day trying to get past a 319.92 Hidden Pivot target we'd identified earlier, but there has been only one pullback from this number deep enough to nudge put options slightly into-the-black. Now, if the stock closes above 319.92 for two consecutive days , look for a run-up to at least 336.35. The broad averages cannot but follow suit, entranced by the seeming invincibility of the world's most popular stock. The contagion of

I've been a hardcore deflationist for so long that it took a wake-up call from the always astute Jesse Felder to jolt me out of my complacency. His latest report is headlined Dr. Copper Could Soon Deliver a Diagnosis of Inflation, and it's an eye-opener. The chart accompanying Felder's think-piece suggests that copper futures have been developing thrust for the last several years that could launch a steep rally. He uses a pennant formation to show this, and the breakout point on his chart would come at around $2.95 per pound if it occurs this month. I have illustrated his pennant in the chart above with red lines. My perspective is somewhat different and uses the Hidden Pivot Method to extrapolate a breakout at exactly $3.12 per pound. Any higher, especially if the futures can close for two consecutive months above that price, would be very bullish. But even someone with no knowledge of technical analysis can see that all signs point higher, with many uptrends of varying degree in play simultaneously. My technical runes say that a strong breakout to the upside would have the potential to push the price of a pound of copper as high as $5.33. If so, the corresponding inflation we might expect to see in the price of goods and services would be severe and a jolt to the global economy, especially since inflation has lain dormant for nearly 40 years. 'The Doctor' Is Usually Right Concerning copper's ability to predict inflation, I'll let Felder explain:  Traders call copper 'Dr. Copper' because he has a Ph.D in economics. In fact, most of the time, Dr. Copper forecasts recessions and recoveries, inflation and deflation, far more accurately than his colleagues in the 'dismal science,' so it pays to pay attention to his macroeconomic messages.  Just

If the farce of impeachment has had an impact on the stock market, it appears to have steepened the bull's ascent. A fact not lost on investors is that Trump's reelection odds have probably gone up as a result of the Democrats' ill-conceived, relentless attempts to sink him. Pundits still talk as though the 2020 election will be close, but as things stand, a pro-Trump landslide appears more likely. Biden's own Ukraine-related transgressions are far more serious than anything Trump is alleged to have done, and only voters terminally afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome could fail to see this. As for the competition, does anyone actually believe a Socialist who lives for the chance to swing a wrecking ball at the U.S. economy, could get elected with unemployment running at 3.5% and the stock market hitting record highs?  Hillary and Mike Bloomberg are waiting in the wings and probably have a better chance of unseating Trump, but not much. The latter, a white billionaire, will have more than a little difficulty getting nominated at a convention controlled by the Democratic Party's ultra-left wing. As for Clinton, she is as disingenuous, corrupt and unlikeable as ever, and only a hack editorialist at the New York Times or some idiot pollster could think she has a chance of regaining the White House. The Biggest Risk The foregoing notwithstanding, a bear market that comes, as they always do, from out of nowhere, could still spoil Trump's re-election bid. Odds of this happening will decrease with each passing month, and the waxing bullish effect could soar out-of-control if stocks are holding steady come summer. In the meantime, the bull market and an exceptionally strong economy have made a mockery of the impeachment hearings, which almost no one is watching anyway.

Stocks have been running in place since Friday, presumably developing thrust for a move to new record highs. Ordinarily, the signing of the trade pact with China might have been expected to provide more boost than we saw on Wednesday. But the news was tempered with some facts that evidently were not widely known. Reportedly, many of the tariffs put in place during the two-year trade war will remain there until after the U.S. election. The very good news, however, is that President Trump has not given away the store just for the sake of appearances. He is willing to scale back tariffs on more than $300 billion in goods if China shows good faith toward the pact just signed. That means not only opening up certain markets to U.S. producers, but taking preliminary steps to demonstrate respect for intellectual property.  We'd been skeptical that the agreement would amount to much, but it's probably as good a deal as we could have hoped for. The opportunity to improve on it during new rounds of talks will surely have a positive impact on the stock market between now and next November.

Boeing shares were up more than $5 at one point Tuesday, ostensibly on news that orders had fallen to a 16-year low. Go figure. The dearth of new business is a predictable result of the global grounding of the best-selling 737 MAX following two collisions that killed 346. Lately, there has been a non-stop onslaught of bad press that will blacken the company's reputation for years or even decades. Just last week, internal memos surfaced that showed Boeing to have been recklessly irresponsible for downplaying the need for simulator training to familiarize pilots with the MAX's automated flight-control system. Moreover, a Congressional inquiry revealed, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, that "the apparent pressure to save money and make the MAX more marketable to airline customers without upfront simulator training didn’t come from individual employees, [but from] high up in the Boeing corporation." A week earlier, Boeing reportedly increased its reserves by $5 billion to handle legal fallout from the MAX crashes. Remember GE's Long Goodbye? That's not exactly what investors want to hear. And yet, preternaturally strong hands have so far managed to hold the stock above lows near $320 recorded last October, after the second crash. This has been possible in part because sales of other aircraft, including 787s and wide-body 777s, have remained relatively robust. Boeing has lost considerable ground to archrival Airbus nevertheless, and it is still uncertain when the MAX will fly again. It has been no small feat under such duress for the institutional investors with whom Boeing shares reside to plump them for distribution. But who would be the buyers? Certainly not widows and pensioners, since the stock sells for more than $300 a share.  Whoever steps in, it seems likely that BA will trade for significantly less before the