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AAPL's vertical climb since October has grown treacherous, as the chart makes clear. Last week we told subscribers to be alert to the possibility of an important top at 314.28, but now we see another potentially daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 319.92. These targets, which lie just inches above Friday's close, are purely technical, but we'll lay odds that a chartist will come closer to calling the top than some analyst who is paid to invent reasons for shares to move higher more or less forever. As regards AAPL, Rick's Picks tracks it obsessively because it tops every portfolio strategist's list of must-owns. Small wonder, then, that institutional investors have continued to pile into just a handful of high-fliers, shunning value stocks as though they were chopped liver.  Apple, Microsoft and Facebook shares, to name three sure things, returned 108%, 60% and 53% respectively over the last twelve months. Why would a portfolio manager glutted with an endless gusher of Other People's Money bother to look elsewhere? True Believers But since we know that the parabolic rallies in these stocks and a few others cannot continue indefinitely, we might ask: What will cause them to fall? Not 'fundamentals', for sure.  Indeed, if AAPL's price were to be halved over the next six months, it would be because perceptions have changed, not the underlying facts. The new set of facts will come later, when the same geniuses who have been scarfing up FAANG stocks hand-over-fist for the last year see the glass as half empty. It is predictable that this change of heart will come only after the bear market has ravaged investors. But it won't happen until stocks are halfway to the next bear-market bottom -- too late to save the hoards of true believers. More immediately, if the AAPL

Paying close attention to AAPL is still the best way to know exactly what's on the tiny brains of portfolio managers. Lately they have been acting as though the company can do no wrong. That's arguable, but even if they are mistaken it doesn't mean we should get in the stock's way. To the contrary, numerous Rick's Picks subscribers reported cashing out of profitable bullish positions that had been predicated on a run-up to at least 309.16. The stock hit that Hidden Pivot Thursday on a manic short-squeeze leap at the opening, then spent the rest of the day doing the hokey-pokey with it. There is however yet another target slightly above, at 314.28, and I'll be more than a little surprised if AAPL simply blows past it.  It comes from a clear and compelling ABCD pattern that is shown in the chart accompanying the AAPL tout below. (I've made this graph publicly available so that non-subscribers can see the enlarged version by clicking on it.) I have continued to emphasize the importance of getting Apple right, because as long as the company's shares are moving higher, the broad averages cannot but move with it. That being the case, we should pay close attention to price action when -- not if -- the stock hits my benchmark. If this happen in the final 15 or so minutes of Friday's session, I'll be taking home a few cheap puts over the weekend, since you never know.

This one's just for fun and educational purposes: shorting a stock that has wreaked more damage on bears than any squeeze I can recall. Ever. The chart shows a well defined rally target at precisely 510.14, and it is there that we will attempt to intercept the stock, at least on paper. I'll suggest an rABC set-up with the following coordinates on the 60-minute chart: A=435.31 (12/27 at 10:30 a.m. EST); B= 402.08 (12/31); and C= yet to be determined. C will of course migrate higher and become a moving target as TSLA ascends toward 510.14, but I would suggest pulling the trigger on a relapse to X only after TSLA has traded 508.90 [note: corrected from 497.60] or higher. In this case we'll assume a second attempt, and even a third, if the position gets stopped out.  On the first try, cover 100% of it at p. But if another opportunity trade materializes (irrespective of whether the first has produced a profit or loss), take half off at p, 25% at p2, and the last 25% at D.  Initial theoretical risk for these trades would be about $3300 on 400 shares. The potential gain on try #1 is $3300; and on try 2, about $6000. If the position is stopped out for a profit on #1 and the second try gets to D, the gain would be around $9300. _______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:14 p.m. EST): The rally sputtered out at 498.49, denying us a chance to get short at the promising Hidden Pivot resistance identified above. We'll back away for now. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 15:55 p.m.): TSLA's pop through so clear a target as 510.14 borders on psychotic. No rABC trade has triggered, but I am no longer recommending the short. Note: When a stock blows past

Stocks are getting pummeled Tuesday night following an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. military base in Iraq.  Index futures are down more sharply than they would have been if the story had broken during the regular session. But with the second- and third-stringers working the trade desks and an absence of liquidity, they had no choice but to let stocks fall as steeply as possible without having to buy too much of it on the way down.  Whether the attack turns out to be the start of World War III remains to be determined, but my hunch is that traders will take the optimistic view and reverse the onslaught shortly. Cautious Targeting In the excitement, February Gold spiked above a 1605.90 target we've been using since December 12, when the futures tripped a buy signal at $1491. Tonight's towering high at 1613.30 has been followed by a selloff to 1592.20 so far, but we should expect bulls to hold their own over the next few days as Wall Street feigns sufficient nervousness and concern to appease the news media.  If Iran continues to attack, perhaps even killing an American, that would likely be sufficiently disturbing to push gold above tonight's peak. However, Iran apparently recognizes the danger of trying this, since its fusillade reportedly did not target American troops. They can be such nice guys when they know how easy it would be for the U.S. to bomb their power supply into oblivion. The mullahs could turn out to be paper tigers -- and wouldn't that be bullish for the world! _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 10:05 p.m. EST): Hey, guys, let's not overdo it! Ebullient buying has goosed the Dow 750 points above lows recorded Tuesday night. A corresponding selloff in gold has been equally extreme, shaving $60 from

Critics of the air strike last week that took out Iran's top general stopped just short of saying he deserved better.  Even the partisan hacks at CNN and MSNBC dared not push too hard against official reports that Iran was planning to step up attacks on U.S. military bases and diplomatic outposts.  The Democrats' main concern is that Soleimani's assassination could lead to war -- or to restate this more accurately, to an escalation of a war that has been simmering since the days of Jimmy Carter. The pollsters as always will be looking in all of the wrong places for signs that Pelosi, Schumer and the Somalian wing of Congress are right, that we should live in dread of retaliation rather than celebrate the death of a man who exported jihad to the world and who was singularly responsible for the death or dismemberment of many hundreds of U.S. soldiers. Could anyone, even Trump's most vehement foes, actually believe Soleimani's thirst for American blood and his ability to inspire murder and mayhem in the name of Islam were at an end? Why would so successful an evildoer not have been planning more attacks?  The President was right to order his execution, and arguments to the contrary seem unlikely to gain traction with the American public. Who's the Bully? That won't stop the news media from trying, though, and we can expect them to treat the Ayatollah's threats with the utmost deference. But as fears begin to recede, with the possibility that Iran is revealed not only as powerless but mortally vulnerable to stepped-up U.S. reprisals, look for business to return to normal.  What an epiphany that would be for those who have regarded America as the bully in the relationship between the two countries! How will we know when

Wall Street's best and brightest -- the same irrepressible glue-sniffers who worked so hard last year throwing a trillion dollars of Other People's Money at a dozen stocks -- came out in force on the first trading day of 2020 to reassure investors that they are as revved up as ever and capable of moving the broad averages significantly higher. I'd allowed for a 7% rally in their uber-favorite stock, AAPL, to lead the stampede, but I overestimated the time it would take to reach the target (which I've adjusted downward to 311. 77). After Thursday's $7.25 surge, it's possible bulls will get there by Monday if not sooner. See my DIA tout below for a way to leverage the move. I've also posted in the Rick's Picks trading room a butterfly strategy in AAPL that offers a very low-risk way to cavort with the revelers. _______ BULLETIN (Jan 3, 1:45 a.m,): Wall Street is not going to simply shrug off tonight's very big news concerning a targeted strike against Iran and its military's top general, Soleimani, but it will be interesting to see how much resiliency the stock market shows over the next few weeks. My hunch is that U.S. stocks will be trading significantly lower, notwithstanding the maniacal buying spree of the last month. Ordinarily I would ratchet down the aggressively bullish stance of today's front page, but I've got an early flight back to Florida tomorrow and don't fancy revising my touts and commentary at this hour. I will have more to say in Monday's edition.

The pattern in the chart is so pretty that it can work for you no matter how you use it. Whether you're eager to get long or short, DIA looks nearly certain to achieve the Hidden Pivot resistance at 294.00 and then to produce a tradeable pullback precisely from it. Why? For two weeks traders were the unwitting slaves of the midpoint pivot at 283.81. That validated the pattern and its target. When buyers finally broke free of p's gravity this morning, the surge all but clinched a run-up to 294.00. Buy out-of-the-money puts for under 0.50 when DIA gets there, but stay tuned to the Trading room for real-time guidance if you're eager to trade with the trend in the meantime. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 10:06 p.m. EST): The 294.00 rally target remains viable, but be prepared for more selling first. It would take a 292.80 print to generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 9:57 p.m.): Dow index futures have sold off hard tonight on news of an Iranian missile attack, exceeding a 282.56 target for DIA that is the lowest I could have projected using Hidden Pivot levels. I am embarrassed to say that the 288.63 top on Jan 2 was the most egregious missed opportunity that I can recall in a long, long while. I must have been asleep at the wheel.  Here's the chart, which makes a short at exactly 288.47 practically glow in the dark. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:25 p.m.): After plummeting 4.47 points, DIA has rebounded to the 288.47 Hidden Pivot noted above. If it can close above it for two consecutive days, look for more upside to the 291.78 target shown in this chart. ______ UPDATE (Jan 12, 10:23 p.m.): A relapse to x=285.62 (shown

The Indoos dove more than 300 points last week after topping at the precise intersection of a well advertised trendline and an important Hidden Pivot target. The two obstacles together represented the most formidable technical challenge bulls have faced in more than a year. Ordinarily we might expect a correction lasting at least four to six weeks. But these days, four to six days of weakness seems more likely, given the relentless enthusiasm of buyers and the very narrow list of stocks on which they have trained their buying power. So where to next?  I'd suggest using a 30299 target for now. It comes from the weekly chart and is the secondary (p2) Hidden Pivot of a rally pattern begun from A=15,503 in February of 2016. _______ UPDATE (Jan 7, 10:10 p.m.): Before tonight's selloff I'd assumed last Thursday's slight penetration of a very strong trendline was bullish. I still think so, albeit with somewhat reduced confidence. The trendline itself is as clear and compelling as they come, and that's why I think the pop above it holds bullish implications. Here's a chart that shows it. _______ UPDATE (Jan 8, 9:34 p.m.): The Indoos popped above the trendline again before settling about 80 points below it. If they can close for two straight days above the line, look for more upside to at least 29,299. That Hidden Pivot comes from the following coordinates on the daily chart: A=27,801 (12/11); B=28701 (12/27). Please note as well that p2=29,059 could offer resistance that would potentially be tradable. ______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 5:40 p.m.): Remember that scene in Mars Attacks! where the U.S. military, having failed to stop the aliens with missiles and cannons, explodes a nuclear device in outer space near their spaceship? An alien sucks the mushroom cloud into his lungs

Stocks seem all but certain to move sharply higher this week, since AAPL has an unfulfilled rally target at 314.28 that's seven percent above. The only puzzler is that every Tom, Dick and Harry in the guru business seems to be expecting a selloff to commence around mid-month. The most logical inference I can draw from this is that the rally will pick up steam in the second half of January and become a wilding spree. If so, there's a 3348.75 Hidden Pivot target waiting for the thundering herd in the E-Mini S&Ps. It equates to a 1500-point rally in the Dow to around 30,000.