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Interest rates on the Ten-Year Note still have a long way to fall if they are going to achieve the 0.73% target shown in the chart (see inset).  Although it is mildly bullish that they have bounced from well above the 1.30% Hidden Pivot target given here earlier, the rally would have to hit 2.18% to turn the weekly chart bullish. For now, though, we'll need to respect the uptrend because it has in fact turned the daily chart bullish via an impulse leg surpassing two prior peaks recorded last month. If without pausing for breath it exceeds a third at 1.79% that occurred a month ago, that would imply the upward skew in rates is about to get legs, presumably with a move to at least 2%. We'll spectate for now, but our goal is to get short when it looks like it's about to sputter out. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 8:40 p.m.): This morning's trampoline bounce sent rates on the 10-year into a steep climb, surpassing the 1.79% benchmark noted above and generating a quite-bullish impulse leg on the daily chart. We'll need to see a correction before we try to determine whether this rally is likely to get legs, but it is strong enough already to suggest that the 1.43% low will endure for a while. _______ UPDATE Sep 18, 11:15 p.m.): A rally that touched this green line has signaled more upside over the near term to at least p=1.86% and possibly as high as 1.98%.

Are rates on the Ten-Year Note finally bottoming? Quite possibly, according to technical indicators that we monitor closely. T-Notes touched a low last week of 1.47% after plummeting almost relentlessly from 3.49% last November.  GDP was running at around 3% back then, and almost no one other than a few hardcore deflationists, your editor among them, saw rates on the Ten-Year falling below 2%.  Now, however, given the look of the charts, it would be wise to prepare for a possible rate rebound, even if it proves to be temporary. By our runes, a bounce from these levels would be logical because last week's low occurred almost precisely at a Hidden Pivot target first aired here some time ago. It was one of a series of lows forecast by Rick's Picks in 2019. The chart shows how rates bounced last Thursday from within 0.02 points of the 1.47% target. The Hidden Pivot support whence the bounce occurred clearly worked, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will hold indefinitely. In fact, given the clarity of the pattern associated with the support, if TNX were to decisively breach it in the next few days, that would strongly imply rates are headed significantly lower in the weeks and months ahead. Belated Boldness Meanwhile, some of Wall Street's best and brightest, having missed the huge rally in Treasurys, which produced capital gains of 15% or more for the few who saw it coming, are now venturing boldly forth to proclaim it is over. Some Investors Are Betting the Flight to Bonds Is Overdone was how The Wall Street Journal headlined their belated change of heart. We're inclined to bet with them for the time being, albeit with less bravado, shorting Treasurys and going long on yields. But to repeat: If TNX, which tracks rates

Today's 110-point drop can be a little intimidating, but an ABC pattern is an ABC pattern, and its magnitude should have no bearing on our ability to target the move. (Recall the scene in Hoosiers when Gene Hackman measured the distance from the basketball court floor to the rim and found it to be 10 feet, even though the court itself was in a 10,000 seat arena.) Anyway, we should look for the selloff to continue to at least p=2767.88, but a breach would portend more slippage to as low as 2733.50 over the near term.  'Mechanical' and countertrend trades will perforce be riskier than usual in dollar terms, but the rules for executing them are the same. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:06 p.m.): DaBoyz recouped a third of the futures' recent losses with the help of some urgent short-covering. Keep in mind that nothing has changed to mitigate the tariff war, only that China has finally placed a bid under the yuan, setting off a bear-squeeze panic in the dead of night. Shorts are the only buyers here, so we'll stand aside and let them shoot holes in their feet with semiautomatic weapons.

The Indoos have come down hard after rallying to within an inch of an important Hidden Pivot rally target at 28,463 three weeks ago.  There were two targets above it, but they should be put aside for now, until the correction -- assuming that's what it is -- has run its course. Elsewhere on the page, in The Morning Line, I've implied that the selloff could be the beginning of the end for the ten-year-old bull market. That is my gut feeling, but I will continue as always to let the charts speak for themselves.  For now, we'll need to see a rally and then a second leg down before we can draw useful conclusions about the health of the bull market.  A 0.618 correction of the massive rally leg begun in early June would bring the Dow down to 25,719. _______ UPDATE (Aug 5, 9:08 p.m.): Don't look now, but today's nasty plunge triggered a nice-looking 'mechanical' buy at 25,694, stop 24,680. You can spectate if you'd like, and that is what I am recommending. But if you interpolate the trade with real money using, say, DIA calls, be aware that the nominal theoretical risk for the cash index is a whopping 1038 points. A 'camouflage' set-up could provide a much cheaper way to get aboard, but you're on your own if that is the path you choose. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 9:52 p.m.): The mechanical trade worked exactly as it is supposed to work, getting us long at a time and price when most traders would have been frozen with fear. The position showed a theoretical profit of $1885 per contract at the intraday high and a current gain  of around $1500. No subscribers reported doing the trade, nor did I explicitly recommend it, so I am not

On July 9, we ran a chart from our friend Peter Eliades of Stockmarket Cycles that showed the New York Composite Index head-butting a trendline whose provenance traces back to the 2009 start of the bull market. With the selloff of the last two days, the trendline appears to have racked up yet another prescient call (see graph above). Three separate attempts in July to get past it failed, and the resulting top is looking more important with each new wave of selling.  If you count the number of times the trendline "worked" since last August, there were no fewer than five instances where it provided support, and then five since October where it acted as resistance. This is quite impressive and would become even moreso if the weakness we've seen this week starts to snowball. Put Options Doubled Peter's trendline resistance closely coincided with a Hidden Pivot target for the E-Mini S&Ps at 3028.75 noted here on July 23. The actual top occurred three ticks above it, at 3029.50, allowing subscribers and Facebook followers to get short in timely fashion using DIA puts. Numerous subscribers reported 'doubling out' on those puts in the Rick's Picks Trading Room today. By closing out half of their options for twice what they paid, the half of the position that remains is effectively free and riskless. Closing out half of every 'doubler' is a strategy we recommend for virtually all option trades. If you don't subscribe but would like to follow the discussion in the Trading Room (and in the breezier Coffee House), take a free two-week trial subscription by clicking here. No credit card is necessary.

The bull market has been chugging along for more than ten years, so there's little point in pretending we can know precisely where or when it will end. However, neither should we ignore the fact that the Dow, having traded as high as 27,399, is mere millimeters from a key 'Hidden Pivot' resistance at 27,463.  As a practical matter, because this is a logical place for a top of at least middling importance to form, we can lay in a small put position just to have a horse in the race.  Tune to the Rick's Picks Trading Room for more-detailed guidance in the week ahead. We'll be looking to buy a small quantity of put options with 3-4 weeks left on them and which sell for 0.80 or less. Use 274.42 for a target in DIA, since it is closely equivalent to the one at 27,463 given above. _______ UPDATE (Jul 24, 7:47 pm.): Nibbling on some puts. Check my 19:42 Wednesday post in the chat room for details. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:25 p.m.): The DIA 23 Aug 255 puts I suggested buying at prices down to 0.35 have since traded no lower than 0.42.  Please let me know in the chat room how you've fared. ______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 9:48 p.m.): Only one subscriber reported doing the trade, so I am not establishing a tracking position. For the record, with stocks falling hard today, he said he exited half of his puts for twice what he'd paid. This means he now owns 50% of the original position at no cost. Today's plunge should continue down to at least 26,755, but if that midpoint support is busted, a 'D' target at 26,504 would be in play (15-min, a=27,220 on July 31 at 1:45 pm.m EDT). _______ UPDATE (Aug 1,

You should be out of the long position initiated last Thursday at 2985.50. Numerous subscribers reported doing the trade, which was showing a theoretical profit of around $4900 at Friday's highs. The nasty selloff into the close would have reduced your gains by as much as $2,000, since I'd advised a wide stop-loss at 2971.00 in order to swing for the fences with the contract that remained. Please let me know in the chat room how you fared, since Rick's Picks P&L performance is based solely on what subscribers report, not on hypothetical trades. Looking just ahead, use the 2962.25 Hidden Pivot shown as a minimum downside target. The stock market looked like hell all day, and it is not an encouraging sign that it was unable to deliver on a swing-for-the-fences play that just a couple of weeks ago would have been a shoe-in. But before we assume stocks are entering a weak phase (or worse),  let's see how well the 2962.25 Hidden Pivot support fares. _______ UPDATE (Jul 23, 6:25 p.m. ET): So much for that bearish target at 2962.25. The futures reversed after having gone no lower than 2969 and now appear bound for 3028.75. A pullback to 2984.25 on Wednesday would trigger a mechanical 'buy', stop 2969.25. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:31 p.m.): The futures have traded no higher than 3029.50 so far, so the Hidden Pivot resistance worked, and precisely. Some subscribers evidently got short, but I will need to hear from a few of you before I establish a tracking position. In any event, partial-profit-taking would have been warranted on the 28-point plunge that followed the high. _______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 9:58 p.m.): The bounce into the close tripped a 'mechanical' short to 2939.50  at x=2983.  I'd suggest spectating, since the low of the

For years, gold's corrections have been brutal, and that is why many erstwhile bulls have not rushed to buy this rally. They have instead been waiting for a nasty pullback in order to load up at bargain prices. But Mr Market has not obliged. Instead, retracements have been shallow and rallies steep. The latter have often occurred after-hours, but in one recent instance via a trampoline bounce early in the day. By playing hard-to-get, gold is showing the most encouraging signs we have seen in a long, long while. This evening the August Comex futures have uncorked a 25-pointer, impaling a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 1444.40 that is tied to a 1504.00 target first identified here weeks ago.  That is my minimum upside objective at the moment and it should be yours as well if you trade this vehicle. If you want to see how some pros are boldly trading the move so far using GDX call options, stop by the Rick's Picks Trading Room. You can access it by taking a free two-week trial subscription. Simply provide your name and email address at the top of the home page and you will have instant access to the entire site. No credit card is necessary. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:17 p.m.): Gold would need to fall $45 to invalidate the 1504 rally target noted above (click here for the chart). Stranger things have happened, but even that would not negate the bullish look of the daily chart.  In any event, we'll avoid the fray ahead of the Fed's "momentous" announcement concerning an expected 25-basis-point easing._______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 10:07 p.m.): The moderate selloff tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal at 1409.08, stop 1384.70. The trade is somewhat riskier than we should prefer, since the pullback from the top of the

I have significantly higher targets  outstanding, but for trading purposes and to get a precise handle on the near-term, I'd suggest focusing on the relatively minor Hidden Pivot at 3051.75 shown in the inset. The pattern could set up two trading opportunities: a mechanical buy on a pullback to the green line (2985.50, stop 2963.25); and a short from 3051.75, stop 3053.25. We'll consider a 'reverse' (rABC) for the second trade if and when 3051.75 is reached, but it would require a small pattern created at the presumptive tail-end of the rally to provide a good entry signal. Tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time if you care. _______ UPDATE (Jul 17, 8:07 p.m. ET): The mechanical trade triggered at 2989.50 and carries theoretical risk per contract of $1100.  If two or more subscribers are aboard and let me know in the chat room, I'll establish a tracking position. Half of the position should be exited at 3007.63, worked o-c-o with the stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (Jul 18, 5:47 p.m.): The 'mechanical' trade advised above triggered in the final moments of Wednesday's session and is showing a theoretical gain of $900 per contract at the moment.  The futures are at 3003.50, slightly shy of the midpoint pivot at 3007.63 where I'd suggested exiting half. However, you should do so now, cashing out 75% of the original position in order to nail down a nice gain. Assuming one contract remains from an original four, use the 3051.75 target to exit, making your offer one-cancels-other with a stop-loss at 2963.25. If the trade concludes as planned, the total profit on the position would be $6000.  Several subscribers reported doing the trade. Please keep me apprised in the Trading Room.______ UPDATE (6:06 p.m): Moments after I sent out that last