Rick’s Picks

The chart shows the tortured psyche of a bear market in its infancy. There have been no particularly memorable downdrafts yet, just a paltry three-percenter in the Dow last week that was overshadowed by an even more-deserved sell-off in the lunatic sector.  There is only discouragement and anxiety at this point, but no real fear. And why should there be? If Thursday's psychotic, Fed-induced short-squeeze had continued for just one more day, it would have brought the S&Ps to within betting distance of new record highs (!). As things stand, it scared the bejeezus out of traders who'd grown too comfortable shorting into every rally that occurred in April. For trading purposes, continue to use the 3994.75 target as a logical place for a tradeable low. It has grown too well exposed by now to work precisely for bottom-fishing, but price action there will at least give us a firm handle on the downtrend's strength at this very early stage of the bear. _______ UPDATE (May 9, 5:26 p.m. EDT): The futures dove to the 3994.75 target this morning, then spent the rest of the day screwing around with it. The close was beneath this Hidden Pivot support, however, following a 3970 low that represented more than just a slight breach. Accordingly, I've shifted point 'A' up to the marquee high to produce a still lower target at 3921.75. That will be the end of the line for the bear cycle begun from 4800 on January 4, so look for a long, sustained bounce after 3921.75 is touched or very closely approached. (The bounce may already have begun, but I doubt it. )  D=3921.75 can be bottom-fished with a 'camo' set-up, since it is extremely unlikely to be significantly exceeded the first time it's hit. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (May

My apologies for putting out a gold tout Sunday night so confusing that it confused even me. It were as though aliens had beamed signals into my head when I composed and published it. The 1825,8 target we've been using all along is still a 'definite', and it would be a load-up-the-truck-price were it not for the fact that I have been drum-rolling this number for the last several weeks. We can still make use of it when the time comes, so tune to the trading room when the futures get within $7-$10 of it. ______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:33 p.m. EDT): Today's nitwit-powered conniptions push the June contract moderately higher but failed to surpass any 'external peaks even on the hourly chart. This is disappointing, considering the rally came off a longstanding, very important Hidden Pivot target at 1825.80.  Perhaps it was too well advertised and must suffer a relapse before gold can bottom?  Regardless, an important low appears all but certain to occur somewhere very near here because the target is so clear and compelling. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 9:55 p.m.): The futures crashed the 1825.80 'hidden' support, so I've shifted to the 'marquee' point A high, which allows for a bottom at 1814.20. That 'D' target has been exceeded, but only by $5. The jury is still out, but it'll take a print at 1864.80 to get out of immediate jeopardy.

I've left Silver on the list this week only as a placeholder, since its chart says absolutely nothing to me. The corresponding chart in gold is somewhat more bullish, and I've said so.  However, it is not so bullish as to suggest it will pull silver higher any time soon. The July contract would need to push past the 'external' peak at 23.65 made on April 29 to get our attention, but until such time as that happens, expect meaningless feints in both directions as bulls and bears duke it out for control of...not much. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 10;05 p.m.); There's a bottom somewhere, although bulls could be pardoned for thinking this time may be the exception. Here's a chart that shows two possibilities, respectively, at 20.27, or 19.24 if any lower.

Sellers have laid waste to so many Hidden Pivot supports, both minor and major, in the past year that I hesitate to assert that the new target shown, at 108.74, will end the bear market in Treasury paper.  Let's focus for the time being on the possibility of a turn from p2=112.31, since that would be more closely congruent with my longstanding forecast for a 3.24% top in yields on the Ten-Year Note. Regardless, an easy breach of that 'hidden' support would portend more downside to 108.74. At that point, long-term yields would be above 3.5%, dealing a presumably fatal blow to a U.S. economy that is already arguably in recession. ______ UPDATE (May 9, 6:15 p.m.): A promising bounce has come from a low today at 112.62 that lay just an inch from the secondary pivot I'd flagged above. Let's see what it makes.  The action is yellow-bellied so far because the intraday high failed by a single tick to take out the 'external' peak at 114.71 recorded Friday on the way down. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 11:43 a.m.): So far so good, but the bounce would become more persuasive if it can surpass the 'external' peak at 119.31 recorded last Tuesday. Here's the chart. It would be even more bullish if the rally does this without requiring a visually evident pullback on the hourly chart.

Two days of pussyfooting an inch from my 111.88 target has killed my enthusiasm for getting short there. Although I would ordinarily view the week's pooch-screwing price action as consolidating for an upthrust, I'm still tempted to use the target to get short as originally planned. It can be done with an rABC set-up using an a-b interval as tight as 40 cents. If you understand this instruction, you're qualified to do the trade. If it gets stopped out, take it as a hint of more upside to at least 116.25, or 124.87 if any higher. ______ UPDATE (May 9, 6:20 p.m.): The futures could have been shorted with an rABC set-up as advised, but only after applying imaginative genius, since they never even got close to 111.88 before tanking.

The bearish target at 29,130 is the tail end of a legitimate pattern that meets all of our rules. We'll have a better idea of how likely the target is to be reached once we've seen sellers interact with p2, a secondary Hidden Pivot support at 33,900. There will be a good opportunity to bottom-fish there, but it will require some deft 'camo' work, since p2 is close to two prior 'external' lows that the droolers will be using for their own purposes. From a visual standpoint, lows made last summer 'want' to be tested, and that's why my gut is going with a drop beneath 30k before bulls are likely to turn feisty again. _______ UPDATE (May 10, 6:38 p.m.): The p2 pivot barely broke Bertie's fall, affirming the likelihood that this plunge will continue to 29,130. If you've made money on the way down using my two successive, very bearish targets, use it to cushion  a stop-loss for bottom-fishing. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:42 p.m.): Bertie took a psychotic, $2800 leap from a low $54 (0.2%) beneath the 29,130 target, only to relapse to a so-far low at 27,731.  This is bearish, but we should give it a day or two to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.  That would require a print at 32,132. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 10:15 p.m.); With the decisive breach of 29,120, I've shifted to a higher point 'A' to produce a new downside target at 21,947.  Judging from the way sellers sliced through p=35,079, it seems likely to be reached.

The bearish, big-picture pattern shown was validated last week by the powerful short-squeeze rally precisely from its D target at 153.00.  I did not feature this picture earlier because I was focused on an even bigger one, but I'm somewhat relieved to see that it would not have gotten us short 'mechanically' in any event. That's because the downtrend until this week did not produce any corrective bounces sufficient to trip a short-sale signal. Looking ahead, we can rely confidently on the new pattern, starting at A2, to give us a juicy trading opportunity at D2=146.77. That is where AAPL is going, and I won't queer the usefulness of the target by discussing it any further, including in the chat room. I have not put it in boldface green as I usually do, I have not put a $ sign next to the symbol to indicate this tout is actionable, and I will bury it toward the bottom of the list so that the tout will have a better chance of being "our little secret."  Keep in mind something I have repeated here many times:  AAPL is the only stock that matters. Get it right, and you get the market right. _______ UPDATE (May 11, 10:54 p.m. EDT): I expect my targets to work very precisely when they are derived from patterns as clear as the one shown in the chart. The so-far 66-cent overshoot of 146.77 has left the stock straddling the bull/bear divide, but my bias is bearish nonetheless and will become moreso if the grifters and pederasts who control AAPL open it on Thursday with a weak short-squeeze. _______ UPDATE (May 12, 10:20 p.m.): Sellers have trashed every 'D' Hidden Pivot, major and minor, leaving only last October's low at 138.27 to break the stock's fall. I aired

Although charts with shorter time frames would appear to suggest that crude is in a bullish consolidation, the continuous weekly chart displayed (see inset) provides a speculative basis for inferring that the bull market peaked with March's surge to 130.26.  I say this is speculative because there is nothing in this picture arguing against another bull leg once the spectacular Covid rally begun in 2020 has had time to regain strength. There are reasons to doubt this scenario, however, particularly the significant weakening of China's economy. Energy demand from China sets the global price of oil at the margin, and when the nation's manufacturing sector in particular is imploding, as it is now, no amount of cartel price-rigging or ginned-up constraints on supply can surmount the deflationary effect of falling demand. An even bigger picture suggests the global economy has begun to shrink, with a report on Friday that U.S. GDP fell 1.4% in Q1. (Leave it to the WSJ to publish an op-ed by that useful idiot Alan Blinder saying IF a recession comes, it will be mild.)  If a U.S. recession has indeed begun, as I asserted in my commentary last week, then the March high in crude is certain to stand for a very long time.  ______ UPDATE (May 3, 10:28 p.m.): Check out the Trading Room thread starting with my 12:50 post, which produced an easy winner bottom-fishing June Crude futures. The 99.02 downside target in the pattern linked in my post will remain my price objective unless the 'C' igh gets stopped out. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 11:)3 a.m.): Since the minor bearish pattern we used yesterday to make money (from the long side!) has gotten stopped out, and because the upturn has come from the midpoint pivot of a corrective pattern, we will gaze upward

The pattern in the chart replicates the one displayed here last week, but with an additional, plunging bar that shows why the once-outrageous target at 3994.75 remains a lock-up. We confidently assumed it would be reached when sellers obliterated the pattern's 4312 midpoint support a little more than a week ago. On Friday, they wrecked another Hidden Pivot, the 4146 'D' target of a lesser pattern, all but clinching more downside to D=3994.75. The pattern is too obvious to suggest that bottom-fishing with the usual nickel-and-dime stop-loss will be easy, but even so, there is no way in hell the futures will not rebound tradeably from somewhere very close to the target. Shorting corrective peaks will be yet more difficult, although nothing we can't handle with some diligent crowdsourcing in the Trading Room. _____ UPDATE (May 3, 10:35 p.m.): The pattern shown is a fine specimen of  my favorite kind of gnarliness, which explains why it produced several 'mechanical' winners during today's session. If you made money on the long side, use some of it to cushion a stop-loss shorting at D=4210.25. You'll be on your on if the order fills. _______ UPDATE (May 4, 10:36 p.m.): If you're eager to get short -- as who on Earth is not? - fixate on the dotted red line I've drawn at 4401.75 as a place to set it up. This is the sweet spot of the 'discomfort zone' we love to use, and although it lies an impressive leap above current levels, it shouldn't prove too difficult for DaScumballs to achieve. They drilled shorts a new orifice today, then strung them up with piano wire and left them hanging a millimeter from last week's peak. This is how powerful rallies happen with zero bullish buying, and we should always be careful about