Rick’s Picks

The stock spent the entire week tap-dancing on a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 316.89. The frolicsome behavior suggests there's a strong likelihood AAPL will ascend to the corresponding target at 333.58 when the opportunity is right. DaBoyz seem in no great hurry to get there and were reluctant to push AAPL out onto a limb without corresponding strength in the broad averages. A dip to x=308.55, the green line, would trigger a strong 'mechanical' buy, but such weakness appeared unlikely when last week drew to a close.  As the stock continues to ascend, we can use p or even p2 to set up a 'mechanical' entry, but we'll let the perfect opportunity arise rather than force trades. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 9:17 p.m. EDT): Check out the 'mechanical' trade I put out around noon in both chat rooms, since the tactics are similar to those you may be seeing here in lower-priced vehicles from time to time.  They are geared to beginners, with the goal of making money for new subscribers in particular who may never have attempted a do-it-yourself day-trade before.  The stock went on to trigger a 'sloppy seconds' mechanical entry in the same place at the end of the day, but the opportunity wasn't quite up to snuff.  The next bottom-fishing opportunity would come about four points below, but I'd prefer to see it unfold in real time rather than try to detail an entry strategy the night before. _______ UPDATE (May 28, 10:13 p.m. EDT): Even with the world's most cocksure money behind it, AAPL has been struggling for oxygen during the last two weeks as it probes supply at the lofty heights of a mighty reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The 333.58 target remains in play, a benchmark to modestly extend the bullish imagination rather than a

I've put DIA back on the touts list in case it triggers a 'mechanical' buy signal that subscribers, particularly newcomers to Rick's Picks, could use to get long. Although I prefer to trade the underlying shares rather than options when using this kind of entry set-up, because this vehicle is pricey we can use calls instead.  Ideally, the signal would come on a sharp pullback from around 253, but we may see other opportunities intraday. You'll need to be tuned to the Trading Room if they materialize too quickly for a tout update that would generate an email notification. To receive these timely messages, check the 'Get Touts'  box in the Profile section of your account Dashboard. Looking just ahead, there is upside potential to as high as 267.28 if buyers can push decisively past p=247.79 or close above it for two consecutive days. ______ UPDATE (May 24, 3:40 p.m.): DIA spent the entire week screwing the pooch, winding up almost exactly where it was a week earlier on a gap-up opening that is still being digested.  Any decent entry opportunities that arise will come intraday, so stay tuned -- either by checking the Trading Room for timely discussion or enabling update notifications in your account dashboard. _______ UPDATE (May 26, 9:25 p.m.): A pullback to the green line (238.05) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, but we'll take a pass, since the point B high of the pattern is 100% pork sausage. Another problem is that DIA did not follow the S&Ps lower at the end of the day, adding to our consternation. The gap up through p=247.79 is bullish nonetheless and implies DIA will reach the 267.28 target with little trouble._______ UPDATE (May 27, 9:37 p.m.): No change. DIA still looks like a lead-pipe cinch to reach 267.28, although

We are trading with an ambitious rally target at 3153.25, but first things first. The immediate objective is the 3008.00 Hidden Pivot shown in the chart. Given the way Monday's stampede crushed the midpoint resistance, and barring some world-shaking development overnight, the target is all but certain to be reached. Be alert, however, to the possibility that the rally could stall at 2991.25. But if 3008.00 is exceeded decisively intraday, the next significant peak en route to 3153.25 would be at 3074.00. These last numbers are all to be found in this pattern, which is smaller than the ones referenced above but more immediate. It's a lot to keep track of, but to summarize, the sequence of resistances is: 2991.15...3008.00...3032.75....3074.00....3153.25. Any upthrust decisively exceeding one will put the next in play. The HP levels in both charts can be used to create 'mechanical' setups, probably the easiest way to trade this rally. ______ UPDATE (May 21, 8:49 p.m. EDT): The futures have made no headway toward the lowest of my targets, 2991.15, but bears haven't shown much moxie either. I expect the week to end with a whimper as the nation heads into a three-day holiday weekend, but if sellers turn churlish, here's a chart to stay a step ahead of them.

The chart show the pattern I would suggest using if you want to trade ES right now, or at least avoid getting on the wrong side of it. This isn't rocket science, and you need to put aside the intimidating fact that the ups and downs comprise the biggest market swings, measured in points, that have ever occurred. They are no different, as far as we should be concerned, from the patterns we would use on the 5-minute chart to trade and forecast. Note that the D rally target still leaves room on the bearish chart displayed here yesterday to allow a 200 point rally and still be bearish. I went with the bearish pattern first because I did not imagine a rally would occur so soon that would be big enough to tip me bullish. The reason I am so confident in this chart is that its point B high is legitimate, meaning it is not 'sausage', having slightly exceeded an 'external' peak well to the left. I am making no effort to comprehend the silliness of what is going on here, other than in purely technical terms. You should get it out of your heads that what is happening on the charts needs to be tied to economic reality. I am not thinking about reality, just reading the stupid chart. It says what it says, and I you needn't seek answers beyond it to make money and/or preserve capital, our main objectives. We can trade the bejeezus out of it using the same tactics we would on the five-minute chart. At the moment, the best way to cut risk down to size is by using the lesser charts to create set-ups at turning points on bigger charts. Here's a note to ourselves for later (shades of Unk!): If

DIA's chart is more clearly bearish than the one currently featured in conjunction with the E-Mini S&P tout. The former looked undeniably bullish at April 17's 242.66 peak, since the impulse leg that created the point 'B' high had exceeded the required internal and external peaks. The B-C leg stalled at 247.67, slightly above at p=247.15, validating the pattern. But consider what happened next: Two waves down this month ultimately breached the point 'C' low, negating the bullish pattern. So why not simply draw a new bullish pattern using 247.67 as 'B' and last week's low at 228.30 as 'C'? Answer: because the 247.67 high failed to 'refresh' the bullish energy of the daily chart by exceeding an 'external' peak -- in this case 250.54 -- as we require. This may sound esoteric to those unfamiliar with the finer points of Hidden Pivot analysis, but the bottom line is that it allows a much clearer, bearish interpretation than is possible with the E-Mini S&Ps. There is a weak technical divergence between the two, but that is sufficient to tip the balance in favor of  bears. We can trade DIA from either side of the market nevertheless as opportunities arise, but with a somewhat more negative bias than in the E-Mini S&Ps.

An interesting fact concerning the Mother of All Bear Rallies that has unfolded since March 23 is that it has exceeded but a single 'external' peak on the daily chart: 2499.00, on March 25. Strictly speaking this puts the rally in jeopardy of rolling over -- or rather, of continuing to roll over, following the April 30 recovery high at 2965.00. Assuming that is what is happening, the next plunge will take the futures down to p=2486.50. There is an alternative interpretation, however, that involves a rather finely nuanced question related to our Hidden Pivot rules.  To wit: Is the March 10 peak at 2873.00 a legitimate 'external' peak? Strictly speaking, it is not, since the price bar on which the peak occurred has not exceeded the bar to the left of it. Even so, there is reason for treating it as a true peak, since it most surely constitutes a significant point of resistance to any rally. This would make the a-b rally shown in this chart an impulse leg -- one capable of propelling the futures as high D=3177.50. I'll go with the bearish case for now, meaning I doubt we'll see a rally exceeding 2965.00, the so-far recovery high. (Be sure to check out my latest DIA tout, since it adds a bearish nuance to this analysis.) As a practical matter, however, there is no reason to be a hero by getting short at these levels with the intention of gutting it out come hell or high water. We'll trade conservatively from either side of the market as conditions warrant, but with an eye toward shorting a top that could give us a play on the next huge downdraft. More immediately, bears should be prepared for frustration in the days ahead, since last week's nerve-racking struggle failed

Chipotle makes its first appearance here in more than a year. A subscriber had asked about shorting into the stock's ballistic rally, but there are surely easier ways to make money. CMG's ascent into hyperspace is right up there with Tulipmania in the annals of mass folly. Ironically, the stock's bear market from 2015-18 was caused by two incidents where bacterial/viral agents had been detected in their food. Is business now better than ever, as the move into record territory would seem to imply? Hardly. It's simply benefiting from investors' desperate, heedless plunge into the shares of a relative handful of companies that can make money and perhaps even turn a profit in a time of pandemic. The weekly chart shows the stock to have topped last week a micron above a clear Hidden pivot target at 972.08. The implication is if it can close above that number for two consecutive weeks, or trade more than $20 above it intraday, D2=1107.76 will be in play. The latter target is calculated by bringing the point 'A' low down to the next obvious place. The ABC pattern is too obvious to work as perfectly as we like for purposes of producing a precisely shortable target,  but it should be good enough for government work. That means a pullback to p=760.49, however unlikely, would set up a so-so 'mechanical' buy, stop 645.92._____ UPDATE (May 19, 8:44 p.m. EDT): This rabid wolverine began the week with a $20 short-squeeze gap that has tightened the vise on shorts, if such a thing were possible. It may need a couple of days to digest the move,  but you should continue to use 1107.76 as a minimum objective in any event. Above it there is 1166.99 (120-min, A=599.78 on 4/3). More than ever, it would seem, we

Gold has struggled for three weeks to fulfill the lofty promise of early April's strongly impulsive rally. While the tedium may have discouraged bulls, particularly when one of the downswings briefly devalued contracts by nearly $100, all of the pooch-screwing has had little effect on an 1873.90 target that has been in play since April 22. The fact that nearly a month's worth of Sturm und Drang has yet to get the June contract even to the 1770.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot has been frustrating, but it looks like it will not be much longer in coming. Bulls were poised to get there when last week ended, and unless Sunday night opens with bullion caught in a game of whack-a-mole, we should count on a test of the resistance by no later than early Monday. What we should want to see then is a decisive push past the pivot, or a two-day close above it, since either would make the 1873.90 target an odds-on bet to be reached. ______ UPDATE (May 9:56 p.m.): Before this agitated hippo plummeted today for no good reason, it exceeded two peaks recorded in mid-April, one of them 'internal', the other external. That is bullish, implying this pullback is merely corrective. _______ UPDATE (May 21, 8:59 p.m.): A pullback to the green line in this chart has triggered a 'mechanical' buy, but the signal is a weak one because the pullback was not 'textbook'. Plan on sitting the day out as June Gold enters its second month of sideways tedium.

Portfolio managers' most beloved stock, the 600-pound gorilla of publicly traded companies, met all of our upside objectives last week save one: a thrust to new all-time highs. We'd been looking to short the stock when it approached this threshold -- the 'nifty trick' I'd referred to in the Trading Room. Alas, last week's high at 319.69 fell somewhat shy of January's 327.85 record. AAPL ended the week with two straight days of egregious manipulation by the usual sleazeballs. Specifically, they opened the stock well beneath the previous day's close in order to dry up sellers. This set up a flurry of short-covering on both days, but neither exceeded the previous day's highs. This smacks of distribution, and although it doesn't necessarily portend a collapse in the stock in the days ahead, it does tell us that the aforesaid scumballs were having difficulty rounding up enough suckers to float this hoax to any impressive new height. We'll watch from the sidelines until it becomes apparent whether a new herd of clapping seals is waiting to do the bidding of AAPL's canny masters. ______ UPDATE (May 18, 10:01 p.m. EDT): Perhaps we'll get a chance to short a return to the old highs after all -- not because we'll be trying to nail The Top, but because we can make money regardless of what it does, especially in spots where others fear to  tread. All you newbies watch closely, because, as I promised, this is going to be a nifty little trick.