Rick’s Picks

We've been using a 1775 rally target, but I've raised it to 1810.47 because of the gnarly beauty of the pattern shown. The stock looks like a good bet to reach p=1700.93 at a minimum, but if buyers can push easily past this "hidden" resistance, it would put the target itself in play. If it's achieved -- by no means a certain bet -- the rally would surpass no fewer than three major 'external' peaks on the daily chart, seriously damaging the case for a bear market. This is certainly not what I expect, but we'll keep an open mind and let the charts do the talking.

Well, there you have it: the most brazenly bogus rally in the history of the world. Are these guys good, or what? The fix was in even before Powell declared Wednesday afternoon that the Fed would be "patient." (Now there's a word that is history in the making!) AAPL's and Boeing's handlers had already gotten the jump on the Fed chairman's latest PR mutterance, deftly engineering respective short-covering panics half a day ahead of him. It took patience, skill and perfect timing to push Apple shares into their steepest rally in recent memory, considering this grim backdrop atop the front page of The Wall Street Journal: "Apple's iPhone Troubles Persist". That would be putting it mildly.  Apple helped hook bears by announcing a day earlier that the company's business had "stabilized" and that management believes things are bound to improve. (Cue up a global sigh of relief!) Although the Fed's momentous shift toward "patience" had been baked in the cake for at least a month, that didn't stop the usual bandits and lunatics on Wall Street from acting as though this non-news were a revelation. But repeating it publicly for perhaps the fourth or fifth time still had the desired effect: Stocks went ballistic, the dollar got cheaper and everything seemed right in the investment world. Trump himself would not have changed a word of Powell's speech. Recall that the news media had us believing for a while that the two were philosophical enemies. In fact, they are of a like mind when it comes to providing free money to any prospective inflator of assets who is not in prison. Their only difference is that while Trump lets the behavior of the stock market guide his monetary thinking, Powell pretends it is everything but the stock market's health that he

Yesterday’s commentary suggested keeping a close eye on AAPL because the stock has looked so awful lately. When you catch yourself thinking a stock has nowhere to go but down, that’s when you should prepare for it to explode. Which is exactly what Apple shares did tonight, on news that the company’s earnings have “stabilized”. This morsel of non-news did the job it was designed to do, triggering a  short-covering panic after the close that has pushed AAPL to 164.85 — more than $10 above its intraday low. This works out to a gain totaling more than a billion dollars. It’s safe to say that nearly all of it went into the hands of institutional thimble-riggers who have sought the perfect opportunity to unload this dumpling ahead of its eventual plunge below $100. I won’t rehash all of the problems that have caused AAPL to fall from $233 in early October to a bear-market low so far of  $142. Suffice it to say, the company has no new killer products or apps to offer consumers, and their exorbitantly overpriced iPhones — up to $1500 for the latest model — will face increasingly aggressive competition from Asian manufacturers. A U.S. recession would deliver the coup de grace, turning what until recently had been the world’s most valuable company into a salvage case. Fool’s Gold But any such day of reckoning has been postponed by tonight’s rocket rally. It easily exceeded a prior peak at 162.11 where I’d said the technical picture would turn from full-on bearish to moderately bullish. It will also turn the FAANGs and a few other lunatic stocks feisty enough to push the broad averages higher, perhaps significantly so, for at least the next few days. At some level, a bear market that had begun to look like

Mr. Market seems to be enjoying playing against our expectations more than usual lately. On Friday, for instance, he left us with an ebullient finishing stroke that all but promised even higher prices on Monday. Lo, disappointing earnings from Caterpillar out before the opening set both the company's shares and the broad averages reeling. That's why I'm suggesting paying particular attention to a bullish price benchmark in AAPL (see below). Can the stock possibly attain it? Seems unlikely. But AAPL has looked so bad lately that I can't help thinking it is where Mr. Market will to try to bamboozle us next. We'll be ready if he does.

AAPL remains a key stock-market bellwether even if it has acted weaker than most of the other institutional favorites since the bull market ended in early October. As such, we should on the alert for the unexpected -- in this case an upthrust exceeding the two external peaks shown. I mentioned the higher of the two (162.11) here earlier, suggesting that you treat with skepticism any rally failing to exceed it. I'm certainly not expecting this, but that's all the more reason to be prepared for it, since it could be telegraphing the start of a strong rally in the broad averages. I've set a chart alert there, and so should you. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:23 p.m.): Exactly as we'd anticipated, the stock has exploded in after-hours trading, on the non-news that earnings have "stabilized."  The so far high at 164.85 easily exceeded my bullish benchmark. Now let's see how far DaBoyz can take this hoax. ________ UPDATE (Jan 30, 7:01 p.m.): The hoax sputtered out, at least for the time being, at 166.15. It's time to move the goal posts again on bulls, the better to determine whether they are willing to put their money where their mouths are. This chart benchmarks a small 'external' peak at 168.35 as the one to beat. ______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 5:35 p.m.): A round of applause for DaBoyz, who managed to push this cinder block to 169.00 today, putting bears who remain short in real jeopardy. The mood has changed, and this could be the best chance AAPL's institutional sponsors will have in 2019 to fool buyers into thinking the stock is going somewhere. We'll sit back and enjoy the show wherever it goes, taking positions on either side of the market when the odds look juicy.

The futures ended on a promising note after spending most of the week tracing out a 60-point swoon. The 2612.50 low of the move narrowly missed tripping a 'mechanical' buy at 2607.31. This suggests there was too much buying power for the futures to fall all the way to the green line where such bids become active. Correspondingly, the 2727.50 target is an better bet to be reached than it would have been following a touch-and-go takeoff. Pivoteers who recall the old-style rules for setting up a mechanical trade at the red line can try it, but you'll be on your own if you do. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:43 a.m.): Bullish as things looked at Friday's close, stocks are getting whomped today, reminding us yet again that the market develops a fresh case of amnesia each and every night, especially over weekends. The futures would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal at 2607.25 (stop 2567.00), but I'm recommending the trade only to those who know how to convert the set-up to a camouflage one. ________ UPDATE (Jan 28, 4:12 p.m.): I'd recommend canceling the mechanical bid because price action looks so feeble. However, you can still attempt the trade via camouflage if you can identify a 'camo' set-up that brings entry risk down to six ticks or less per contract. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:27 p.m.): Index futures have gotten less lift from tonight's short-squeeze in AAPL than I might have expected. Regardless, the 2727.50 target (2728.25 when corrected) given above will remain viable unless 2567.25 is exceeded to the downside. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 7:06 p.m.): Today's stall precisely at the D target shown is unlikely to keep the futures from reaching the 2728.25 target given above. ______ UPDATE (Jan 31, 5:26 p.m.): The futures were steaming toward the

AMZN ended the week looking feisty, but not quite feisty enough to command the broad averages higher when the new week begins. In assessing the stock's strength over the next couple of days, we'll skip the subtleties and stipulate, simply, that it must surpass the 1718.93 'external' peak labeled in the chart to shift into high gear. The 1775.75 rally target given here previously will still obtain, but we should put it on the back burner until AMZN re-energizes itself with an  impulsive thrust above the peak. Keep in mind that the stock is still on a 'mechanical' buy signal -- one we passed up because the dollar risk and the very steep pitch of the last correction were just too scary. Yes, we love such set-ups because they work best when price movement is violent and punitive. In this case, however, 'instincts' have overruled the usual protocols simply because we are very probably in a bear market.

As expected, the Dow blew past the upper threshold of the wedge formation pictured here Friday, gapping well above it on the opening bar. We'd predicted a 250-point surge, but the Indoos did a little better, gaining 306 points at the intraday high. This price action confirms what we already knew -- i.e., that stocks are incapable of leaping higher unless powered by the kind of short covering that usually turns up in the first few seconds of the day, if at all. What was interesting about Friday's rally is that it didn't sputter out and  reverse within minutes. Instead, buyers kept at it for the next hour, peaking at around 10:50 a.m. This strongly suggests they'll be back when the new week begins, even if unlikely to tip their hand right away, as they tend to do on Fridays.

Gold took wing Friday, energized by weakness in the dollar. The $23 upthrust stalled almost exactly at the 1302.90 Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance shown, validating both the bullish pattern and a 1330.40 target we've been using for the last week or so. (Note: These numbers differ slightly from the ones given here earlier because the pattern's point 'C' low changed.)  The 1330.40 'D' pivot will become our minimum upside objective if the futures can close for two consecutive days above p or trade more than $3 above it intraday. Traders please note that a pullback to the green line at 1289.10 from around 1310.00 would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 1275.20. Stay tuned to that chat room for further guidance on this in real time.______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 4:17 p.m.): The futures look like they've consolidated sufficiently for a decisive push past the 1302.90 'midpoint resistance' noted above. Once this occurs, the 1330.40 Hidden Pivot will be in play as our minimum upside objective for the near term. _______ UPDATE (January 29, 12:01 a.m.): Shifting to the April contract, here's a chart that shows a 1336.40 target equivalent to the one given above for the February.