April

April Gold was in a moderate sell-off in after-hours trading Tuesday night after having achieved the 1265.70 rally target show. Night owls might enjoy success bottom-fishing at the 1241.70 corrective target of a lesser pattern (15-minute, a=1259.30 at 12:30 p.m. EST), using a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. If that Hidden Pivot fails to reverse the downtrend, expect further slippage to the 1236.10 downside target of yet another pattern (20-minute, a=1264.90 on 2/27 at 11:40 a.m.; b= 1248.20 on 2/28 at 1:40 p.m.).  It looks very promising for catching a swing low precisely.  You could also get short to that number if and when 1244.50 has been penetrated to the downside by perhaps 1.20-1.50.  At a more subjective level, I should say that gold's rallies have been disappointing in the way that we might expect if bullion were still in a bear market. Gold (and silver) have rallied enough to keep bulls engaged and hopeful, but little more. It often feels like investors are being strung along by upthrusts that, while encouraging, are unable to get legs. I discussed this with Cory Fleck this morning in my daily interview with Korelin Economic Report. To access the recording, click here. _______ UPDATE (Mar 1, 10:56 p.m. EST): The futures have bounced $14 so far after bottoming $1.10 from the 1236.10 target given above. The trouble is, the bounce narrowly failed to surpass the 'external' peak I've labeled at 1252.80 (see inset, a new chart). The move is bullishly impulsive, to be sure, just not bullish enough so far for a presumption of significantly higher prices. To get things rolling, buyer will need to close this vehicle above the 1253.90 midpoint pivot, or trade through it by at least $3-$4 intraday.  Thereupon, the 1270.60 target would become my minimum upside objective

For tracking purposes, we hold a single contract with a cost-basis reduced by profit-taking to 1174.80. The original four-contract position was purchased off a simple instruction sent out to paying subscribers on Feb 16: "place a 'mechanical' bid at 1227.10, stop 1217.40." As it happened, the stop was never even remotely challenged when the futures swooned to our bid five days later and turned sharply higher from 1226.80, just three ticks below it  The price target all along was 1255.80, but because that Hidden Pivot was exceeded on Friday, I feel comfortable swinging for the fences with the contract that remains. That implies we're shooting for the 1281.50 target shown, at least. Note that bulls would still have quite a climb ahead of them to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the daily chart, since that would require a print exceeding the election night high at 1343.90.

With Thursday's balky rally, April Gold remains on track to hit the 1255.80 target shown. Traders who are not already on board can use a 'camouflage' or 'counterintuitive' entry trigger fashioned at the red line, but I wouldn't advise a 'mechanical' one there because gold's gratuitous swoons have been pretty nasty lately.  That said, you could still try a 'mechanical' entry at the green line (1227.10), stop 1217.40, although your bid would of course go unfilled if the futures simply head higher on Friday. If you're unfamiliar with 'camo' and 'CI' entry tactics, stay tuned to the chat room discussion, since there are a number of Hidden Pivot Method experts (aka 'Pivoteers') who have been actively trading this vehicle. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 8:34 p.m. EST): The futures were weak on Friday, but that has not altered my trading guidance (see above).

With Thursday’s balky rally, April Gold remains on track to hit the 1255.80 target shown. Traders who are not already on board can use a ‘camouflage’ or ‘counterintuitive’ entry trigger fashioned at the red line, but I wouldn’t advise a ‘mechanical’ one there because gold’s gratuitous swoons have been pretty nasty lately.  That said, you could still try a ‘mechanical’ entry at the green line (1227.10), stop 1217.40, although your bid would of course go unfilled if the futures simply head higher on Friday. If you’re unfamiliar with ‘camo’ and ‘CI’ entry tactics, stay tuned to the chat room discussion, since there are a number of Hidden Pivot Method experts (aka ‘Pivoteers’) who have been actively trading this vehicle. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20, 8:34 p.m. EST): The futures were weak on Friday, but that has not altered my trading guidance (see above). _______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 3:54 p.m.): The trade instruction detailed above worked perfectly when the futures swooned gratuitously this morning to an intraday low at 1226.80. That means anyone who followed my advice caught the $13.10 trampoline bounce that has so far ensued. In the chat room, with a post at 12:45 p.m., I further advised taking off half of the four-contract position with the futures trading near 1239.10. For purpose of providing tracking guidance in the days ahead, I will assume two contracts still held, with a cost basis of 1215.10. We'll swing for the fences on this trade -- meaning for at least 1255.80 -- but you should still place an 'impulsive' stop-loss at 1225.00 for the time being. As is my practice, I am providing this guidance because several subscribers reported having done the trade in the chat room.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 23, 11:38 a.m.): The little sonofabitch is once again moving our way. Offer

Wednesday's trampoline bounce off a bear-trap opening bar turned the hourly chart bullishly impulsive once again.  Notice, however, that buyers have stalled near the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. It projects to 1255.80, and I'd lay even-odds that number will be reached by no later than Monday if Thursday begins with a thrust exceeding 1239.00. A print at that price would generate yet another impulse leg, and with it a possible opportunity to get long on any subsequent pullback to either the red or the green line.

The ABC pattern shown, with a 1255.90 rally target, still looks like the one that is controlling price action in this vehicle at the moment. So much the better, since the failure of sellers on Friday to bring the futures down to the red line, where we might have sought to get long 'mechanically,' hints of buying power beneath the surface. Looking just ahead, you can buy a swoon to the green line 'mechanically' on Monday, but I wouldn't advise trying this at the red line. Why? At the moment, I'd prefer to do my buying in gold when bulls are getting terrorized rather than merely discomfited. Friday's swoon from above the pink line was closer to the former, and it's unfortunate that the intraday low occurred just shy of our optimal one. _______ UPDATE (Feb 13, 10:18 p.m. EST): I've changed the picture (see inset) to show a minor corrective pattern that can be bottom-fished with a bid at 1222.20 and a stop-loss as tight as 1221.80. There are no guarantees this midpoint Hidden Pivot support will contain sellers, but its location looks opportune to me for trading purposes. If the stop is hit, look for further slippage to at least d=1215.40.  Please note that the mechanical buy described above, at 1200.90, stop 1182.50 remains valid. ________ UPDATE (Feb 14, 7:08 p.m.): Today's mildly wacky price action, inspired by yellenblather, altered the pattern I'd suggested trading. I'll hazard no further predictions for Wednesday. _______ UPDATE (Feb 15, 8:45 a.m.): This morning's nasty, gratuitous takedown targets 1209.90 off this pattern on the 60-minute chart; a=1246.20; b= 1220.30. The futures will have a chance to turn up from p2=1216.40, however. If the reversal goes all the way to 1235.90 by tomorrow, that would be quite bullish.

It's late Monday night and April Gold has stolen up on the 1237.70 'external' peak (see inset) that I wrote here yesterday was crucial to the short- to intermediate-term picture.  The so-far high tonight has precisely tied the peak, but it would be hard to imagine the futures coming this far without mustering the tiny push it would take to get past it. That would refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart,  shifting our attention to election night's watershed peak at 1343.90.  First things first, though: Assuming buyers can get past the 1238.80 'secondary pivot' of the pattern shown, a two-day close above it would put the 1257.10 target solidly in play over the near term. As always, an easy move through so clear a Hidden Pivot resistance would be telegraphing a continuation of the trend. _______ UPDATE (Feb 7, 7:46 p.m. EST): Another extremely uneventful day, checked by the 1237.70 resistance drum-rolled above. The so-far shallow retracement from within three ticks of that number suggests bulls are mustering their courage for a push past it.  _______ UPDATE (Feb 8, 10:02 p.m.): Buyers easily cracked the  1237.70 resistance, implying the trend is likely to continue to at least the 1255.60 target shown. We haven't used the secondary pivot (p2) much to set up 'mechanical' buying opportunities, but let's give it a try here, stop 1231.30. If the $600 initial risk makes you squeamish, you can substitute either a 'counterintuitive' set-up using A=1232.30, or 'camouflage'. _______ UPDATE (Feb 9, 10:03 a.m.): The futures took an $8 bounce from  1237.70 before relapsing to the pink line. If you caught the initial trade with a bid placed just above the line, you had a great opportunity to take a partial profit and can manage the trade as you please from this point

After rallying sharply overnight, the futures fell $6 from within a single tick of the 1219.10 Hidden Pivot I'd flagged here earlier. A second-wind burst took them even higher, to an intraday peak at 1227.50 that easily beat my bullish 'continuation' benchmark at 1223.00. This is constructive action, and we should regard any retracement that doesn't breach January 27's 1182.60 low as a potential buying opportunity. Even so, I've selected the most conservative rally pattern available (see inset) so that we can accurately gauge the strength of the rally and trade it knowledgeably.  The A-B leg shown exceeded the 1225.50 peak, making it bullishly impulsive. This cannot be said of the bigger-picture rally leg, however, since its January 24 peak at 1223.00 missed being 'impulsive' by 60 cents. We'll see how it goes on Friday, but if the trend pushes above the 1237.70 peak without correcting, that would be reason for bulls to relax. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 6:15 p.m.): No change. Continue to use the small pattern shown to extrapolate day-tradable information.  In theory, the futures would need to retrace down to at least 1202.50 to be considered properly rested for another leg up. In practice, however, if buyers were to push this vehicle above the 1237.70 peak (see inset) without a full retracement, it would increase the imputed bullishness of the daily chart.

 Gold finished the day with a sharp upswing, but not before gratuitously inflicting pain on bulls with a $15 swoon early in the session. If the rally is ruled by the pattern shown as I expect it to be, the futures should hit 1219.10 overnight or early Thursday. With any luck the move will breeze past the target, giving us reason to expect more of the same over the near term. And if buyers can push just a little higher, surpassing the 1223.00 peak labeled in the chart, it would be bears for a change who are on the run. From a trading standpoint, we should stay anchored in bedrock, meaning 'counterintuitive' entries only. I passed up what turned out to have been an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity on Wednesday because, like you, I've grown increasingly skittish about catching the falling piano. That is not necessarily to say that gold is difficult to trade, only that we will have to focus our efforts on only the most promising set-ups. Stay closely tuned to chat room give-and-take if you want to participate.