August

Bulls finally broke through a crucial midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 3423.20 after weeks of pumping and priming, clearing the way for more upside to at least p2=3559.20, the pattern's secondary pivot. As always, its decisive breach would portend a likely finishing stroke to D=3695.30. We are unlikely to see a swoon back to the green line (x=3281.10), but if this should occur, plan on bottom-fishing there 'mechanically' with a 3151.00 stop-loss. More immediately, if the future haven't exceeded 3467.00, you can try bottom-fishing around 3356.80. That number could be expected to work exactly but for the fact that it coincides with a previous low at 3358.50 recorded on June 12 that is going to attract too many eyeballs. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 2:59 p.m. EDT): With Wall Street celebrating “risk-off” like there will be a million bright tomorrows, bullion is getting hit especially hard. Just remember, the selling is being orchestrated by agents who are eager to buy the stuff. I expect the fake carnage to continue down to 3361.70 [modified] before the futures turn around. August Gold is currently trading around 3407.90. _______ UPDATE (Jun 19, 9:12 a.m. EDT):  My revised correction target for August Gold (see above) came within $2.10 of nailing the v-shaped low of a so-far $33 rally. It's too early to tell whether this will mark an important bottom, but if you got aboard near the low, you should be out of a third to half of the position with a partial profit of as much as $3,000 per contract. Assuming the bounce continues, the closest target is 3419.00. Here's a graph that shows it all. _______ UPDATE (Jun 20, 1:22 a.m. EDT):  The futures have relapsed after rallying sharply from within an inch of my 3361.70 correction target (see above). I recommend playing for

Last night's explosive move through the 70.82 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown has removed any doubt its 86.51 target will be reached.  It seems improbable that there should be a lid on an energy market that is now on wartime footing, but that's what the chart implies. However, if the move even slightly exceeds the target, and thence early April's slightly higher 'external' peak at 87.63, a lurch toward the magnetic $100 mark would probably become inevitable. In any event, your trading bias should be aggressively bullish until such time as 86.51 is reached.

The strong rally materialized on schedule, then stalled almost precisely at the 3423.20 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance that I'd flagged. Bulls will need to exceed this impediment decisively to clear a path for more upside to the 3559.20 'secondary' pivot, and thence D=3695.30. I'd said that last target would take 5-7 weeks to reach, but there can be no guarantees it will be reached at all until such time as p=3423.20 is left choking on prop wash. More immediately, plan on bottom-fishing if the futures pull back to x=3287.10. A 3150.00 stop-loss would be appropriate, but you'll need to employ your own risk-reduction strategy to pare the theoretical entry risk of $13,700 per contract down to something closer to $300.  I do this by using a much smaller 'trigger' pattern to get me aboard, a somewhat labor-intensive tactic called 'camouflage'

Gold's bull market remains solidly intact, but it is in no hurry at the moment to push up to the $5000 level as its handlers presumably intend. In the meantime, expect the futures to mark time with a drift down into the $3000-$3100 range, where they could cruise effortlessly for months until it's time to stretch the bullish imagination yet again. Alternatively, a decisive push above $3400 would imply that the sovereign entities that have been doing most of the buying sense a further escalation of geopolitical trouble on the horizon. The 'D' rally target associated with a 3393.10 midpoint resistance lies at 3662.80, the highest target I could foresee over the next 5-7 weeks. (Please note that 3423.20 is the equivalent midpoint resistance for the August Comex contract. It is tied to a 'D' target at 3695.30.) ______ UPDATE (June 3, 12:12 a.m.): An explosive overnight rally has pushed the August contract to a so-far high at 3417.80 that lies just an inch from the 3423.20 midpoint resistance I'd said was key. A decisive move past it will clinch more upside to at least p2=3559.20, and thence to the 3695.30 'D' target given above as my maximum upside objective for the next 5-7 weeks.

Three successive, marginally higher tops in the last three months have made this vehicle more than a little tiresome. The futures will need to come down to at least p=2352.00 of this latest, bullish pattern before we can get a confident read on how long the tedium might last before gold blasts off toward 3000. We might be able to determine trend strength accurately as early as Monday or Tuesday by looking at patterns going in either direction on the lesser charts, so stay tuned.

Although GDXJ broke out last week, the chart shown in the inset, for August Comex futures, leaves me skeptical. I would remain at least somewhat so even if the rally were to surpass the 2477.0 peak recorded on May 24.  However, I wouldn't hesitate to buy a pullback to the red line (p=2340.60) mechanically. The by-the-book stop-loss would be at 2295.10, so we'd need to craft a less risky set-up to leverage the opportunity. For the moment, though, this vehicle remains on a 'mechanical'-short signal.

August Crude remains on track for a rendezvous with the bullish target shown, 86.66. It might require a wrenching pullback first, and so I'll mention that the red line (p=79.55) could be bought 'mechanically' with a theoretical stop-loss at 77.18. That would risk nearly $10k on four contracts initially, so we'll need to come up with an appropriate 'camouflage" strategy if the opportunity materializes. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19): Crude took a pounding toward the end of the week and now looks like it could bottom lower than where I'd initially predicted. Use p2=78.77 of this pattern as a minimum downside projection for now. You can also attempt to bottom-fish there with a reverse pattern and 'camouflage' trigger. That means executing the trade using a trigger from a chart of small degree. _______ UPDATE (Jul 23, 8:56 a.m.): With today's power dive, crude is about to bottom at or near d=76.26, the Hidden Pivot target I flagged yesterday in the chatoom when I swapped this contract for the August.  Here's the updated chart.

Just a little higher would trigger a 'mechanical' short on the weekly chart, but the pattern is not of the highest quality, and my gut is saying not to resist the rally. A better opportunity may lie in bottom-fishing the next correction, which could be as much as $78 or as little as $39. We'll let bulls deal with resistance from July 7's top-let at 2406.70 first, but stay tuned to the chat room and your email notifications if you trade this vehicle and want to stay attuned in real time. Please note that a worst-case relapse could bring the August futures down to as low as 2204.20 without diminishing the bullish look of the long-term charts. This is unlikely in my view, but it never hurts to be prepared for whatever pain bullion is capable of dishing out.

Last week's thumb-wrestling match ended in a draw as bears failed to push the Auggies down to the 2281.00 target shown. The best they could muster was to diddle the secondary Hidden Pivot support at 2306.40 for nearly two days. The week ended with the futures mildly on the upswing, although a further push to the green line (x=2357.20) would trigger a 'mechanical' short. The opportunity looks second-rate, so I'll recommend watching from the sidelines. A bigger picture shows a nearly three-month consolidation with potential to 2520 or higher. Somewhat lower prices remain likely for now, though.