Bitcoin (USDT)

Bitcoin will likely need to fall below 30k and consolidate for at least a few more weeks before it can attempt a fresh start. Even so, a feint beneath the January low at 28,810 would set up an enticing rabc 'buy', using the 47,059 low recorded on April 30 as the point 'a' low of the trigger pattern. On the off-chance that it simply takes off without further consolidation, a close for two consecutive weeks above p=48,065 would be needed to allay my skepticism. Alternatively, and as noted here earlier, a pop above 51,556 would be persuasive as well, but any less should be regarded as mere noise. _______ UPDATE (Jun 5): I've lowered the bar to 45,837 to tell us when this vehicle is once again worthy of our close attention. That's where the first significant 'external' peak lies in this chart.  Alternatively, BRTI is on a 'mechanical' sell signal that implies more downside to 26,422 (480-minute, A=51,556 on 5/14).  Here's the picture. 

A chatroom subscriber that goes by LukeDog requested a chart on Bitcoin. Any investment instrument capable of moving up or down 50-100% in such a short period of time is what I consider a psycho trade. That is- you'd have to be psychotic to want to trade this. With only 6 months of history I don't see anything other than 4455 d target pain in Bitcoin's future. If bitcoin can muster up the strength to take out the 12,075 C that would certainly change my outlook.

The bottle-rocket trajectory of bitcoin's rally has required me to put out increasingly ambitious Hidden Pivot targets several times each day. Currently I am using 18436 to project a top of some sort, although I hesitate to suggest it will be THE top. Actually, I'd be happy merely to see BTC pull back from that number for more than a few hours -- as long as it has taken for this vehicle to obliterate Hidden Pivot resistances that we might have expected to contain the jubilation for a few days if not longer. This evening, BTC has plummeted more than $3000 since peaking several hours ago at 17171, a new record. Most of those who have benefited from the cryptocurrency's breathtaking climb are not traders, just hoarders who may be starting to wonder whether it's time to get off.  But how? The best way for them to take profits would be to convert bitcoin to cash or to buy something 'real' with bitcoin. Something like physical gold -- about as real as investables get. At one point on Thursday afternoon, a single bitcoin could have purchased ten St. Gaudens $20 double eagles -- and then two more later in the day when bitcoin peaked at 17171.  Would you do that deal? Of course you would. Coin Dealers Not Leaping to Do the Trade So why isn't everyone swapping bitcoin for gold? Well, even if they wanted to, they'd have a tough time finding coin dealers eager to take the other side of the trade. If it were otherwise, the price of gold futures would be rising, not falling as it has for the last month.  Bitcoin hoarders can be forgiven for thinking they'll make much more money by staying in bitcoin than if they convert their digital lucre to bullion.

We've been using 12714 as a minimum upside target, but composite charts available at Kitco leave room for a move to as high as 14711 over the next 3-5 weeks.  Kitco's data also allow for a possible stall at 12391, so take heed if you trade this vehicle.  I will be making specific trading recommendations once I determine whose charts are the most accurate for purposes of forecasting swing highs and lows.  Here's a gambit you can paper-trade for now:  Bid 10615, stop 10011, and hold the position for a 12391 objective. My gut feeling is that we won't have definitive, tradable charts until the impending CME bitcoin futures contract has established a little price history. _______ UPDATE (5:46 p.m.): The order filled and went live as a 'paper-trade' about an hour ago.  Switch to a trailing stop of $350 if and when the rally hits p2=$11,498. ________UPDATE (9:41 p.m.): BTC has traded as high as 11560, activating the 350-point stop. To avoid getting popped out of a good trade too easily, and assuming you are still in it, I'll now recommend substituting a break-even stop at 10615 for the trailing stop. This is not a number pulled out of thin air, for in fact it lies just beneath the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the rally pattern projecting to 12714. _______ UPDATE (Dec 4, 10:27 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 10717. [As of around 6:00 p.m., nothing had changed. Bitcoinmania has gone temporarily flat, but you should hold to the stop-loss and the 12714 target in any event.] _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:19 a.m.): Raise the stop-loss to 11362, still held o-c-o with an order to close out the position at 12714. _______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 10:40 p.m.): Bitcoin is on a tear tonight, having traded as high as $12,200.

I'd proffered a 10563 rally target here earlier, but it was based on a chart that used sketchy data. This one, from Bittrex.com, yields a 10356 target that I expect to work more precisely. It also shifts the midpoint Hidden Pivot somewhat downward to 7892. The change is worth noting, since we could use a pullback to that number to get long with a mechanical bid and a 7070 stop-loss. I'll be curious myself to see how well Bittrex charts work for forecasting swing highs and low accurately and getting the trends right consistently in various time frames. Price information sufficient to accomplish this will be intrinsic to any charts based on the CME's impending bitcoin futures contract, which supposedly will start trading sometime in December. So far, however, the NYSE product bearing the symbol NYXBT has helped us nail some important highs and lows with very good accuracy, including the 29% swoon from a peak at 7521 achieved earlier this month. _______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:30 a.m. ET): The already vertical rally steepened overnight with a maniacal lunge to a so-far high at 11792. On the daily chart, only one clear target remains to be filled, via an ABC pattern as gnarly as any I've ever seen: 12714. [Note: The original number given, 12174, was a typo.] It is my minimum upside projection for now, but if it too is exceeded I may need a logarithmic chart to produce a new price objective. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 9:23 a.m.):  On the 30-minute chart, BTC has slipped below p=9459 associated with a 'd' correction target 8328.  There remains 668 points to fall, then, from a current 8994. (a=10976 on 11/29 at 11:30; b= 8714). An alternative target, calculated by sliding the 'a' high up to 11165 (11/19. 10:00 EST), is