E-Mini S&P

We'll see how much pluck buyers have if the futures fall beneath 1327.25, a midpoint support shown in the chart. Its 'D' sibling lies at 1314.50, and that would become my minimum downside objective if the midpoint gives way. (So far, it has been exceeded by just a single tick.) That last number is nearly coincident with a 1315.00 low recorded last Thursday, but it can be bottom-fished nonetheless with a 1314.25 bid, stop 1313.25. I am suggesting that you bid slightly below the actual pivot on expectations that a breach of the 1315.00 low will stop out enough traders to send the futures more than just a tick beneath the low.  Camouflageurs can avoid having to deal with this uncertainty by simply buying the first abcd upturn from near 'D'.

U.S. stocks fared somewhat worse than we’d expected on Monday, although the moderate weakness that occurred was a far cry from the collapse a hysterical news media had prepared us for.  Index futures got hit hard Sunday night, to be sure, but it was the kind of stage-managed weakness that occurs nearly every Sunday night. Typically, professional traders take advantage of whatever mood swings weekend news stories have stirred up. In this case, the nervous Nellies were primed to dump stocks at fire-sale prices, stampeded by a scare-mongering press that would have us believe the global financial system will unravel if Democrats and Republican’s can’t work things out.  On Friday, Mr. Obama planted the seeds of fear in the Mainstream Media’s tapioca-filled head, alluding to the possibility that the stock market would punish House Speaker Boehner for walking out on him. The major news outlets eagerly bought into this claptrap, and their fearful drumbeat grew louder and louder as the weekend wore on. By early Sunday evening, when index futures began to trade, widows and pensioners were sufficiently panic-stricken that they became the patsies of Murphy Men eager to fade their action. The Sunday-night crew has traditionally run off-hours sessions like a carnival midway, and they lost no time taking shares down to levels where buyers faced little risk. The E-Mini S&Ps plummeted the equivalent of 150 Dow points moments after trading began at 6:15 p.m. EDT.  That turned out to be the worst of the selling, much as we had anticipated, and stocks moved steadily higher for the next 19 hours.  We’d warned subscribers of a Sunday-night trap in the following note disseminated two hours before trading started:  “Securities markets were set to open Sunday night with no U.S. debt deal in place to calm investors.  This is the

Still bullish, and there's no change in the forecast (although it is only strict adherence to my coldly mechanical forecasting system that allows me to make my peace with such a preposterous outlook). I doubt it would survive a Moody's downgrade of Spain, however -- which implies that Iberia is all but guaranteed a week or two of breathing time pending a rally in the E-Mini S&Ps to at least 1388.75.  Europe could fall any day now, financially speaking, but perhaps it would be historically more appropriate for this to happen in August, a month of destiny?  In any event, night owls should look for a possible buying opportunity near the 1335.75 midpoint of the pattern show, assuming it survives Sunday's opening.  Please note, however, that the futures would be signaling more slippage to at least 1328.75 if the midpoint gives way. _______ UPDATE (1:23 a.m. EDT):  The Sunday Night Sleazeballs evidently think widows, pensioners and John Q. Public will fall for the news media's scary drumbeat about there being "no deal" in place ahead of Monday's opening. The E-Minis are falling hard tonight, for sure, but I read it as a shakedown engineered by ripoff artists intent on buying at fire-sale prices once they've succeeded in exhausting sellers.  Anyway, we'll be able to test this theory with two Hidden Pivot supports not far below: at 1320.75, a midpoint; and at its 'd' sibling, 1310.50. You'll find these coordinates on the 15-minute chart, where A=1342.50 on July 22 at 4:15 p.m. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (11:13 a.m. EDT):  The futures have rallied sharply after making an overnight low that was just 1.25 points from the midpoint noted above.  Although they have yet to recover to "unchanged," it would appear the worst of the engineered selling is over.

It is at times like this, when I am unable, even, to imagine stocks going anywhere but (much) higher, that they usually turn.  If they do so today, although I doubt the selloff will go far enough to alter the 1388.75 target given here earlier, it may suffice nonetheless to send traders home over the weekend with just a mote of doubt.  In any case, the futures need only rally 10 points, surpassing the 1354.50 peak recorded on July 7, to set up a short-squeeze on Sunday. If they fail to do so, presumably only briefly, it will be because the bullish scenario has become too pat to work.

The E-Mini S&Ps are four points in-the-green early THURSDAY morning, but there's 15 points more upside before they run into a Hidden Pivot with the power to resist the tide. If the resistance fails, however, it would be signaling a possible 400-point rally in the Dow next week.

Our minimum upside objective is 1340.00, the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown.  Although a stall there could hint of serious trouble ahead, a two-day close above the pivot -- the outcome that I expect due to the power of the impulse leg from which the target was derived -- would be warning shorts to brace for a possible follow-through to 1388.75 (a.k.a. point 'D').

The emphasis during this session was on spotting camouflage opportunities and steering clear of traps in real-time charts for Gold, Silver, Corn and the E-Mini S&Ps. Although it will nearly always be possible to force a long or short trade in some time frame, we can reduce stress and effort by initiating trades only when they are based on impulse legs that conform strictly to our rules. In particular, we should expect to find the best – and easiest – trades at swing highs and lows that have been signaled on charts of higher degree. In all instances, finding the first such signal amidst the panic, fear and uncertainty of others will afford the most trouble-free path to success.

In volumeless after-hours trading, DaBoyz have sleazed the futures above the 1323.25 peak that had resisted their depredations during the regular session. This is the threshold I'd said would need to be surpassed in order to refresh the bullish energy of the intraday charts.  Now that this has occurred, it will shift the focus to a Hidden Pivot resistance at 1340.00 that can serve as our minimum upside objective for the near term.  This is not a place to try shorting (other than via camouflage, of course), but to observe the degree of difficulty, or perhaps ease, with which the resistance is surmounted. If it is quickly brushed aside, however, that would put into play its 'D' sibling at 1388.75 -- equivalent to a 500-point Dow rally from these levels. You're just six hours from learning how to forecast stock and commodity prices better than some gurus who do it for a living. Click here to find out how -- and save $50 on next month's Hidden Pivot Webinar.

Today's commentary references a 1280.50 retracement target that first appeared in the tout section a while back.  It is still viable, not only as a downside price objective but as a place to try bottom-fishing.  Officially, we'll attempt to "camo" our way into the trade, looking for the turn if and when the futures fall to, oh, 1282.20.  But if you want to take an easier though somewhat riskier course, try bidding 1280.50 with a 1279.75 stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (12:28 a.m. EDT): The futures have gone the "wrong" way today, but the rally has in no way altered the picture of summer tedium that this morning's commentary describes. The so-far intraday high at 1316.00 has exceeded one external peak on the 240-minute chart, but it will take a print at 1323.50 today or tomorrow to exceed the second that would be needed to provide even minor relief from fecklessness.