E-Mini S&P

DaBoyz will try to milk every last drop of panic from this short squeeze, but I doubt it will go very far. Putting aside what I "think" or expect, we'll use the twin external peaks at 1285.00 to warn if the so-far hoax-of-a-rally is taking on a life of its own, in Frankenstein fashion. A print just a single tick above 1285.00 today would put bears on the ropes,  probably, until at least week's end.

Check out today's tout for the E-Mini S&Ps, since it comes with a chart that shows how little it would take to drive a stake through the heart of this now 29-month-old Mother of All Bear Rallies.

For the last seven hours, the futures have been screwing the pooch near 1246.75, a Hidden Pivot target that I disseminated in the chat room yesterday with the futures trading nearly 20 points higher.  You should trade this tedium only out of acute boredom, but please note that just a little more downside -- specifically, anything below the 1237.50 low recorded on St. Patrick's Day, would generate an impulse leg powerful enough to sound the death knell for the 29-month-old Mother of All Bear Rallies.

Price action in this vehicle is for the nimble and sporting only, since the ups and downs of late have been too vicious to position-trade. Assuming yesterday's low holds, the futures would become faintly interesting on the hourly chart once 1319.00 has been exceeded to the upside on a closing basis. That is a Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a 'D' rally target at 1367.75.

I'll update Sunday night, since anything could happen, but as of Friday's close the futures looked like they were developing thrust for  a push to a Hidden Pivot at 1307.50. That would be equivalent to a Dow rally of about 120 points, but it would not necessarily mean a blessed thing. The midpoint resistance lies at 1296.50, and the futures would become and odds-on bet to continue to the target if they can exceed that number by a point or more. ______ UPDATE (10:41 p.m. EDT):  With a political deal in place, things are going exactly as forecast.  The futures opened Sunday night on a short-squeeze gap through the 1296.50 midpoint, making a follow-through to at least 1307.50 a near-certainty.  The actual high so far tonight is 1309.50, equivalent to a Dow rally of about 140 points, but if the futures poke above last Thursday's bull trap peak at 1313.00 they could put bears on the ropes for at least another day or two. Trading should be via camouflage only at this point, but it should be noted that tonight's rally is NOT impulsive on the hourly chart, since it has not exceeded any external peaks.  Although I hesitate to describe this knee-jerk hysteria as weakness, the failure of the upthrust to get past 1313.00 on the first try tells me the rally is not likely to last.

Curious about what Hidden Pivot Analysis can do in real time?  Check out the video below, An Impromptu Hunt for Trades. The recording was made Thursday morning as we watched Silver Wheaton, the S&Ps, the Mini-Russell and other popular trading vehicles go through their paces. Although recordings of these online, impromptu trading sessions would ordinarily be made available only to paying subscribers, we've published this one in response to numerous queries we received recently about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on August 10-11.  Incidentally, there are still a few seats left -- and a $50 discount if you sign up now.

We'll put aside foolish concerns and simply watch today, since the trading tantrum that has occupied the entire week has simply brought the futures down to a too-obvious support at 1291.25, the July 18 low. If it's breached, Hidden Pivot supports may still be useful for setting up scalp-trades and bottom-fishing (or getting short), but the more powerful influence by far will be the by-then magnetic low near 1258 recorded in late June.

In this impromptu session conducted Thursday morning, we looked for real-time trading opporunities in the E-Mini S&P, the Mini-Russell, Silver Wheaton and some other vehicles. These sessions are open to all Rick's Picks subscribers, although this recording is being made available to the public. Subscribers can be notified when the impromptu sessions are about to begin, and receive trading alerts intraday, by signing up on the "Contact Us" tab at the top of this page. A free trial subscription is also available by clicking on the link near the upper left-hand corner.

My bullish bias for the last three weeks was based on the seemingly irrepressible power of the impulse leg initiated in late June from 1257.  By now, however, it would appear that the epic fight on Capitol Hill is coming close to repressing bull-mania, if not stopping it altogether.  Are we seeing the long-awaited collision between the irresistible force of a global money blowout and the immovable object of a looming Second Great Depression? Perhaps. Whatever the case, there is no denying the weight of supply that began accumulating in February, when the broad averages embarked on a volatile move sideways that may finally be ready to give up the ghost.  Even so, and strictly speaking, the bullish impulse leg remains intact, and even a further selloff to 1284.50 would merely corrected it in normal abcd fashion.  Whatever happens, there are no big-picture trades to consider -- unless we want to look at put butterflies well below these levels. And it's possible we shall. For the time being, though, and until stocks take a possible last-gasp leap on news of whatever rancid deal is hatched on Capitol Hill, we'll simply back away.