E-Mini S&P

My choice of a point 'A' is arguable, but if it works, the futures should fall to at least 1276.25 before getting good traction. That's a Hidden Pivot support that can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks. The 1290.00 midpoint is worth little to us, however, since it lies just a tick from the obvious structural support of yesterday's v-shaped bottom.  Bears should give benighted buyers wide berth if the futures should turn higher from somewhere above 1290.00 and subsequently make it past 1311.50, the first 'external' peak a rally would encounter on the hourly chart.

The futures were developing torque Sunday night for a shot at recouping virtually all of last week's losses in a single, algorithm-enabled, short-squeeze burst on or before the opening. So much for all of the hard, hard work sellers put into driving stocks only moderately lower over the course of the last few trading sessions.  My immediate target, based on the minor pattern shown, is 1323.00, but the futures will need to do a little better, surpassing a look-to-the-left peak at 1324.00, to refresh the bullish impulse on the lesser charts. _______ UPDATE (8:36 a.m. EDT): It would be premature to kick back and enjoy Sunday night's refreshing selloff, since all of it so far has yet to create a bearish impulse leg even on the 30-minute chart.  That would occur on a 1306.50 print, although the "dueling" impulse legs engendered thereof would still leave room for a moderately bullish bias. ________ FURTHER UPDATE (9:44 a.m.):  Ahhhhh! How sweet.  This unexpected plunge looks bound for a minimum 1287.25.  You can try bottom-fishing there with a three-tick stop-loss.

Yesterday's short-squeeze rally looked gutless, since it died three pathetic ticks short of a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.  However, DaBoyz will undoubtedly try to pop this brick again today, since there were no pullbacks on Thursday big enough to let shorts off the hook.  Whatever happens, we should set aside the 1295.25 downside target given here earlier, since the actual low at 1298.25 will probably stand for a while. If it doesn't, however, you could bottom-fish a Hidden Pivot at 1292.75, provided 1313.25 (aka point 'c') hasn't been exceeded to the upside overnight.

Dragged kicking and screaming -- though not, perforce, much lower -- the futures gave back most of the gains they'd achieved overnight, continuing a downtrend that projects to 1295.25 (see inset). You can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks, but a less risky play -- albeit one with higher odds of going unfilled -- would be to bid 1393.75, stop 1392.75.

Steady but mild weakness obtained yesterday, but so far tonight the action has been all about half-hearted short-covering.  This has yet to produce an impulse leg on the 15 minute chart, let alone the hourly, suggesting that the better opportunity on Wednesday may lie in selling the rallies rather than buying the dips. As of around 2 a.m. EDT, however, there were no compelling targets to attempt it.

Two pivots just below the floor of Monday's modest damage suggest that bottom-fishing could be attempted with relatively little risk.  The hidden supports lie, respectively, at 1313.75 and 1313.25, so I'll advise bidding 1313.75 with a 1.00-point stop-loss.  Looking at a somewhat bigger picture, there is nothing to say -- at least, nothing that would allow for anything so bold or presumptuous as a trend forecast.  The futures have been flatlining for two weeks, unable thus far to push above either hidden or structural resistances near 1337. 1.00_______ UPDATE (10:28 p.m. EDT):  A 1313.75 low held tonight for more than an hour, but the feeble, 2.25-point bounce that ensued was not quite sufficient to "cover" the  1.00-point stop-loss we used to initiate the position.  Our theoretical loss was $50, but we've  at least determined that there is probably more weakness to come.

The futures have opened on a gap higher Sunday night, hinting of distribution. The trend maxes out at 1329.25 on the five-minute chart, but higher highs are coming if DaSleazeballs are able to coax more buying from what has thus far been an anemic short-squeeze. They've recouped half of Friday's presumably meaningless selloff already, but it's anybody's guess what will happen overnight.  If the June contract simply heads higher, the 1355.00 target shown in the chart will be in play, along with its 1337.00 midpoint sibling.

Camouflage-equipped scalpers can have this vehicle all to themselves today, since I'm not going to take the bait and try to predict that "something" is likely to happen.  Better you should flip a coin.  After nearly two weeks of aimless shuffling beneath February's "neckline," the futures have made a hash of the inverted head-and-shoulders that some of you may have been looking at. For what it's worth, it doesn't look like distribution to me.

The 1336.50 target that we've been using as a bullish lodestar caught the exact top yesterday, although it remains to be seen whether this will turn out to have been the Mother of All Bear Rally Tops.  Officially we hold no short position, since I'd suggested using the Mini-Dow instead because its rally target was more appealing. For tonight and Thursday, look for the futures to fall to at least 1325.25 now that the sibling midpoint of that Hidden Pivot, 1329.00, has been breached. You can bottom-fish the target with a two-tick stop-loss, but if the stop is hit, look for weakness to continue to 1323.25.  That's a Hidden Pivot, but it is not advantageous for bottom-fishing because it coincides with structural lows recorded on Tuesday.  Alternatively, a pop tonight or Thursday morning above 1334.50 would turn the lesser charts bullish. ________ UPDATE (10:31 a.m. EDT):  Leveraging some phony, meaningfulness economic data out this morning, DaBoyz short-squeezed the futures after the June contract had dipped overnight to 1326.25, a point from our bid.  The most interesting thing about the rally was that it failed to take out yesterday's 1336.50 high. If Da Sleazeballs are unable to squeeze stocks to a marginal new high on "good" news, this suggests their pulse is weakening.  It seems a foregone conclusion that a new high will be achieved, but the strain of producing it, and others in the recent past, is starting to show.