E-Mini S&P

Tuesday's steep dive bottomed at 2616.00, just beneath the 2620.75 Hidden Pivot support we'd been using since last week as a minimum downside target. I'd suggested bottom-fishing a single contract there, but the trade would have been stopped out quickly for a theoretical loss of around $63. The futures have since bounced a feeble 21 points, but my hunch is that DaBoyz will try to take them at least somewhat higher overnight in order to squeeze a few extra dollars from bears who don't know when to sit back and relax.  The 2526.50 downside target is in play but not yet an odds-on bet to be achieved, since the penetration of the midpoint pivot (p=2622.50) so far has been merely slight._______ UPDATE (April 25, 8:35 p.m. EDT):  A rally to x=2670.50 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, but I have no energy for doing so, since it could require holding the position overnight. We'll look for a way to 'convert' the signal to camouflage during regular hours on Friday, but until then I'll suggest watching from the sidelines. _______UPDATE (April 26, 5:07 p.m.): A few subscribers struggled to stay short from around 2670.50, so I'll repeat this post from the chat room: "I must re-emphasize that 2670.50 is not a swing point, and shorting there is not the same as shorting at a p or D Hidden Pivot resistance. Under the simple rules of the mechanical trade, we short there knowing the futures can rally all the way up to C (in this case 2718.50) without stopping us out. That implies nearly $2000 of initial risk per contact. Unless you are willing to accept that risk there is no point in shorting there MECHANICALLY. If you want to cut the risk down to size, you should use the mechanical signal to

Buyers sputtered out after having demolished a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 2697.25 a day earlier.  The reversal probably would have been nastier if AMZN, moving boldly to the beat of a different drummer, hadn't spent the day shredding its way blithely higher.  The 2744.00 peak from March 21 noted here earlier remains crucial to the short-  to intermediate-term picture -- and the sooner it's exceeded, the more bullish the implications. Alternatively, if the weakness continues, look for the June contract to fall to the 2620.75 midpoint support shown here. Day-traders can bid 2621.00 for a single contract, stop 2619.75. ________ UPDATE (April 24, 3:08 p.m. EDT): Today's steep plunge slightly exceeded my target, hitting a so-far low of 2616.00. This would have stopped out the bottom-fishing trade for a theoretical loss of around $63.  Judging from chat room discussion, it would appear that subscribers were able to use the target for purposes other than buying against-the-trend -- staying out of harm's way during today's free-fall, perhaps, pr covering short positions.

The futures ratcheted marginally higher last week, vexing traders of all stripes every step of the way.  It didn't matter whether you were a bull or a bear, a seller or buyer of straddles, a directional bettor or a delta-neutral rocket scientist, there were pitfalls and booby traps to bedevil even the most seasoned pros. Notice in the chart how the E-Mini S&Ps made a series of marginally higher highs over the course of the week. Although a bull could have profited in the end by simply staying long, this was a bad bet from a risk/reward standpoint. Notice how getting from one high to the next would have required weathering adverse swoons three to four times as large as the incremental gain achieved using a buy-and-hold strategy.  For better or worse, the new week promises at least a little more of the same. The 2697.25 rally target we've been using all along is still viable, although an easy move past it, or a two-day close above it, would strongly imply the rally will continue. _______ UPDATE (April 16, 4:58 p.m.): Yet more tedious ratcheting bought the futures to within 10 points of the 2697.25 target. It is sufficiently clear and compelling that I expect a pullback, possibly tradeable, from within 2-3 ticks of my number.  However, an easy and decisive move past the pivot, especially one that exceeds the 2744.00 'external' peak shown here, would suggest the uptrend may be about to steepen.________ UPDATE (April 17, 6:04 p.m.): Buyers barely paused at 2697.25, implying they have eyes for the 2744.00 benchmark I've noted above. If ES pulls back after slightly exceeding it, be alert to any 'camouflage' entry set-up that could occur thereupon.

There are a bunch of minor, bullish patterns we can use to gauge bulls' spirits here, but I've picked a so-so one to avoid reading the chart too bullishly or bearishly. In the picture shown, the June contract would need to push decisively past p=1355.20, meaning to 1360 or higher intraday; or close for two consecutive days above it, in order to become an odds-on shot to hit D=1374.80. It's been a while since gold futures attained even such a minor target, let alone exceeded one, so we won't presume too much. _______ UPDATE (April 18, 9:59 p.m. EDT): Buyers fell just shy of the 1360 benchmark given above, but the 1359.00 high actually achieved was sufficient to generate a 'mechanical' bid at X=1344.30, stop 1335.40.  Because the initial risk would be $900 per contract, my suggestion is to paper-trade unless you know how to convert the signal to a 'camouflage' set-up.  Stay close to the chat room for real-time guidance on this. _______ UPDATE (April 19, 7:30 p.m.): I'm rarely a buyer of this vehicle, but in this instance you could attempt it with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks:  1344.50 bid, stop 1344.10.  Here's the picture. ________UPDATE (April 20, 11:15 p.m.): The trade was stopped out for a loss of $40/contract. However, this held bearish implications for the subsequent rally to x=1347.00 (the green line) five hours later. A mechanical short there, stop 1349.60, would have produced a gain of as much as $770 per contract later that morning._______ UPDATE (April 22, 12:44 p.m.):  A subscriber took me to task for supposedly spinning a losing trade into a would-be winner.  Longtime subscribers will know that Rick's Picks is a no-spin zone, devoid of shoulda-woulda-coulda trades. I mentioned the short-gold play above -- after-the-fact -- because it was

Volatility has been challenging lately, to put it mildly. On Monday, the futures gave back more than three-quarters of the 50-point gain they'd achieved with a running start on Sunday night. The end-of-day result was an ostensibly bullish pattern and a 'mechanical' buy signal at 2612.99 (the green line), stop 2584.25.  In general, mechanical signals are intended to make the most of wild swings, and to tame them. However, I'll recommend paper-trading this middling opportunity, since the falling-piano effect was quite palpable at the close. The theory behind the trade is that we would be getting in after many bulls had gotten crushed by this afternoon's selloff. But the required 28-point (i.e., $1400 per contract) stop-loss seems too rich, considering we'd be leashing ourselves to a rabid badger. ______ UPDATE (April 10, 8:37 p.m. EDT): The trade worked exactly as it was supposed to have worked. Now let's see if the futures can achieve the pattern's 2698.00 target -- a further supposition of the original trade. In practice, half the position was to have been exited at p=2641.63 for a $1400 gain per contact. Another 25% should be cashed out at or near 2698.00, with 25% held for a swing at the fences (i.e., 2900+).________ UPDATE (April 11, 5:15 p.m.): Zzzzzzzzzz. No change. ________ UPDATE (April 12, 1:00 p.m.): After screwing the pooch for three straight days the futures finally lifted off the launcher, presumably bound for the 2697.25 target shown. A pullback to the red line (2640.88) would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 2622.00.

The June contract was down a whopping 78 points on Friday at its nadir, but from a technical standpoint it was just noise.  Since the selloff was prompted by Trumped-up news concerning the President's latest thoughts on tariffs, perhaps we should have bought the decline hand-over-fist.  One other reason we might have had for doing so was that all of the lunatic stocks -- i.e., the small handful of turbo-charged stocks portfolio manages use to hyper-leverage the epic hoax of a sustained bull market -- appear to be in conventional bullish corrections. Accordingly, I'll suggest using the chart (inset) as a road map when the new week begins. It's always unpredictable how DaBoyz will play their cards Sunday night, but my hunch is that merely moderate weakness would be a sign the Masters of the Universe are eager to buy 'em ahead of Monday's opening bell. Since we should always allow for an alternative scenario, let me add this: If the futures open down more than 20-25 points, bulls could be in for another rough day, whether attributable to tariff headlines or not. _______ UPDATE (April 9, 1:10 a.m.): DaBoyz could not contain their gluttony Sunday evening and have opened index futures with an unabashed lurch higher.  For now, use the 2640.88 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart as a minimum upside target. ______ UPDATE (1o:41  a.m.):  Target hit and slightly exceeded.  I will update with a new target if there's a request for it in the chat room.

It's never too early to go on record with an insanely bullish target, especially with so many respectable gurus seemingly convinced The Top is in. Accordingly, I am proffering the 2984.75 target shown just so that we don't get caught with our pants down if it's achieved. That would equate to a Dow rally to around 27000. Pivoteers will notice that the futures officially became a theoretical 'mechanical' buy on the March 22 pullback to the green line. We opted out because of the $5700 entry risk per contract, but the 'buy' signal remains valid nonetheless. If we had done the trade, it would have been with the presumption that ES is no worse than a 50-50 bet to reach the target. Odds would increase to around 60% if the rally exceeds the red line, but we'll wait for it to happen before jumping on the bandwagon. Meanwhile, yesterday's seemingly powerful reversal did not exceed a single prior peak on the daily chart. However, that would be remedied in very bullish fashion if buyers are able to push this brick above the 2679.75 peak labeled in the chart.  That's just 34 points above -- an easy chip shot the way things looked at Wednesday's close. _______ UPDATE (April 5, 5:05 p.m.):  Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. The futures were very slowly on their way to the 2692.50 target shown when the bell put them into an even deeper coma. They tripped no fewer than four 'mechanical' buy signals intraday, so night owls are likely to enjoy a felicitous ride to the target, even if it requires patience. A 'camouflage' entry using the 5-minute (or less) chart is suggested.

Usually it's easy to discover a Hidden Pivot 'reason', after the fact, for whatever highs and lows exist on a chart. In this case, however, Monday's bombed-out low occurred in a place that would seem to make little sense. And that's why I'm going to take the bounce it generated seriously -- i.e., because it has come out of Nowheres-ville, seemingly oblivious to any technical levels that I am aware of.   A rally to the green line would generate a very enticing signal to get short 'mechanically,' but we'll deal with that if and when the opportunity arises.  For now, if you want to get long with risk very tightly controlled, I'd suggest crafting a 'camouflage' entry trigger on the five-minute chart or less. This chart illustrates one such hypothetical possibility. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 5:25 p.m. EDT): A tedious 'inside day' has left the analysis and outlook above unchanged.

Today's exhilarating reversal took bulls and bears alike by surprise when, instead of reversing on short-covering in the final hour, sellers quickened their tempo until the closing bell. The chart shows why we have put so much faith in Amazon to tell us what is on the fevered brains of its institutional sponsors at any given moment.  Ricks Picks subscribers began the day with 1576.63 rally target that lay $20 above Monday's close. In the actual event, Amazon surged overnight to within 66 cents of the target before plummeting $93 intraday. Put options that could have been purchased for as little as $2 on the opening fetched as much as $41 later in the session.  The stock ended the day pennies from the 1482.59 target shown in this chart. If it gives way, the next place I would look for a bounce is 1464.89, [Note:  This number, originally given as 1463.41, has been corrected.] a Hidden Pivot support derived from these coordinates on the hourly chart:  a=1606.44 on 3/14; b=1495.36 on 3/23. _______ UPDATE (March 28, 7:10 p.m.): Ordinarily I would be cynically dismissive of AMZN's plunge today, since it came on supposed news that we've heard before -- i.e., that Trump thinks Amazon is too powerful and that he wants to 'do something' about it.  But what if investors were to dismiss the sell-off as a con-job engineered by the usual sleazeballs to shake loose some bargain shares? That would make them bullish right now -- the moreso if the stock were to reverse this week's steep slide and start looking like its old world-beating self again. I am going to keep these crazy thoughts foremost in my mind if AMZN seems to revive with vigor.  I can't think of a more effective way for Mr. Market to trap