E-Mini S&P

The pattern shown is the one to use if you're masochist enough to trade this dirge. The futures have made zero headway over the past week, challenging the patience of all but the nimblest scalpers. Despite the lack of upward progress, the December contract tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal when it fell back to the green line on Wednesday. Since the implied entry risk with a stop-loss below point 'C' would be almost $1300 per contract, I'd suggest whittling it down to size using a 'camouflage' set-up on charts of 5-minute degree or less. Tune to the chat room for guidance in real time, since there are a few traders who have been following this vehicle closely.

The futures spent the entire day meandering toward the unambitious target of the pattern shown. I've added a tiny ABC notation that captures a beautiful 'camouflage' set-up that occurred early in the session. It was worth an $800 ride on initial risk of about $150. So now what? The futures could stall here, but bears shouldn't count on it.  The next leg up should hit 2188.61, a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot resistance associated with a D target at 2202.31. Night owls can try getting long 'mechanically' on a pullback to the midpoint pivot, 2175.25, stop 2166.75. Here are the coordinates on the 15-minute chart if you want to recreate the pattern: A=2125.50 (11/9 at 10:30 a.m. ET); B=2180.50 (11/10); and C=2147.75. If you don't mind a little work, you could cut the entry risk 90% or more by using a 'camouflage' trigger on the lesser charts after a retracement to 2175.25.

Buyers couldn't get altitude on Friday, but neither did they give up much ground. There's a rally of as much as 90 points in the offing, but the futures will first need to get past a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 2199.00 that lies 40 points above (see inset). They tripped a theoretical buy signal by touching the green line, but there was no reason to have gone home long over the weekend after a day of churning, especially when there was not enough price action above the green line to set up a 'mechanical' trade there. Under the circumstances, we'll have to wait and see what Sunday night brings. Stay close to the chat room if you want to be closely apprised of any opportunities that develop in real time..

Friday's tired price action did nothing to diminish the powerfully bullish look of the pattern shown, which projects to as high as 2250.  Using the hourly chart, I've labeled two peaks that could conceivably enable a low-risk, camouflage entry. They lie respectively at 2164.50 and 2178.50, and I've sketched an ideal set-up for using them to get aboard. A point 'B' high occurring in the 14-point gap between the two is what we should look for.  If this occurs and you're interested in doing the trade, tune to the chat room for further guidance in real time

Wednesday's manic, 142-point trampoline bounce blew past the 2134.50 midpoint pivot of the pattern shown with such force that the futures appear almost certain to achieve its 2240.50 target. Measured from Tuesday night's bombed-out low, that would be equivalent to a Dow rally of about 1700 points. The target does not match up precisely with any rally target I've flagged in my DJIA tout (see below), so we'll have to look at each separately and trade them accordingly.  A pullback to the red line would be a 'mechanical' buy in theory, but buyers shouldn't count on bargains, considering the very steep trajectory of the rally. The best way to board may be via a 'timed buy-stop', a tactic that is probably the least-used of the five tactics associated with the Hidden Pivot Method. It works best when a trend is so powerful that it keeps going even when there's a herd of profit-taking bulls aboard who have been enticed by the steep, but dangerously obvious, pitch of the rally. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 8:59 p.m. ET): For Friday, use 2180.75 as a rally target. It is the 'D' Hidden Pivot of this very gnarly pattern on the 10-minute chart: A=2147.50 (1:30 p.m. on 11/9); B=2180.50 (3:30 a.m. on 11/10); and C=2147.75. Notice that the pattern tripped a 'counterintuitive' buy signal at 2156.00, 'C' having been a single tick higher than 'A'.)

The uptrending abc pattern shown has the potential to lift the futures a further 26 points, to 2171.00. Although they paused just shy of p=2145.00, there has not yet been a sufficiently decisive pullback from this midpoint Hidden Pivot to precisely confirm the target.  It lies just shy of a key 'external' peak at 2172.75 recorded on September 22, but the additional two points of upside needed to refresh the impulsiveness of the rally shouldn't pose much of a challenge for buyers, judging from the vigor they've shown for two consecutive days.  If Trump should be leading as Tuesday night wears on and the futures have gone no higher than 2144.25, we might expect a selloff down to at least 2108.75, the midpoint pivot of the bearish ABC pattern shown.

This evening's 'Comey rally' has come from well beneath a key Hidden Pivot support at 2090.25 (see inset), implying it is merely corrective rather than the start of a massive upthrust to new all-time highs.  There are too many variables to predict what might cause this to be so. However, it's safe to say at this point that Wall Street investors seem not merely content to have a felon in the White House, they are positively enthralled by the prospect. As we went to press around 7 p.m., the rally had generated a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.  It is too early, though, to hazard a prediction as to whether a follow-through leg of equal magnitude awaits. _______ UPDATE (Nov 7, 7:35 p.m. ET): This morning's energetic short-squeeze exceeded a grand total of zero 'external' peaks on the daily chart.  The nearest lies at 2149.75, exactly 19 points above the intraday high, but it would take a further rally of 13 points to surpass the second 'external' peak we require to signal a proper impulse leg.  The hourly chart is bullish as far as it goes (see inset), but not impressively so, since Monday's high left the futures just shy of at modest, 2135.00 rally target. Let's see whether the futures can blow past it as we might expect from any rally capable of getting legs.

Sellers had such a hard time pushing this erstwhile cinder block down to a modest 'secondary' target on Thursday that I rechecked my calculations to see what the problem was. Sure enough, I'd used an erroneous point 'C' high. The new chart shows the true downtrending pattern that is controlling the futures at the moment. Notice that it has picked up a dead-center-bullseye hit at p2=2079.63. The original Hidden Pivot support was given as 2077.63, but the chart shown is the correct schematic. It provided a very precise 'mechanical' short from the green line (x), and -- night owls take note -- I expect it to do the same from the red line (assuming the futures don't fall straightaway to D=2070.00). That last number can be bottom-fished with a 2070.25 bid, stop 2069.25 (!), but I recommend the trade only to those who have captured at least a few points of profit on the way down. As always, a decisive breach (i.e., more than three ticks here) of D would imply more weakness to come, presumably after a bounce of indeterminate strength.

On Tuesday, the E-Mini S&Ps finally fell to a moderately bearish Hidden Pivot target that had been more than two months in coming. The fact that Wednesday's bounce from this Hidden Pivot support was weak and lasted for less than a day strongly suggests that the selling is the start of something more powerful. We'll know soon enough, since, from our technical perspective, the hallmark of a bear market is downtrending ABCD patterns that consistently exceed their 'D' targets. Conversely, we should also start to see abcd corrective rallies that fail to achieve their 'd' targets. This dynamic should be evident in all time frames, even in patterns that play out in either direction on the lowly 1-minute bar chart. Most immediately, we might look for this in the bearish pattern displayed at the rightmost edge of the chart. It has already been confirmed by the so far slight bounce precisely from the midpoint pivot at 2087.25.  Any further slippage should be expected to hit D=2068.00, and to provide a potentially tradable bounce from within a tick or two of that number. Bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as three ticks, but only if you've been profitably short for at least part of the ride south.